Predictions for the NFL Divisional Playoffs

Not a bad start for me or the NFL Playoffs.

I correctly picked three of Wild Card Weekend's four games, and three of the four were decided on the final possession.

The most intriguing part about the Divisional Playoffs is that all four games are rematches from the regular season. The Steelers and Ravens, and Jets and Patriots played each other twice in divisional play. Seattle and Chicago battled in Week 6, and Green Bay and Atlanta went at it just after Thanksgiving.

Of the six games between the teams, four were decided by a field goal. For that reason I wouldn't be surprised if we see more drama this weekend.

Baltimore Ravens (AFC Wild Card) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (AFC North champion):

What happened during the regular season: These bitter rivals split the season series with each team scoring a three-point road win.

There are times when three-point games aren't as close as the score indicates, but that wasn't the case here. The Ravens won 17-14 in Pittsburgh thanks to an 18-yard touchdown pass from Joe Flacco to T.J. Houshmandzadeh with 32 seconds remaining. Pittsburgh returned the favor two months later when Ben Roethlisberger found Issac Redman for a nine-yard score with just under three minutes left, vaulting the Steelers to a 13-10 victory.

Why Pittsburgh will win the rubber: There are a number of reasons to pick from. They're at home. They're rested. They have Big Ben. Their defense is better.

I think it boils down to playing with a healthy Roethlisberger because when they do, they almost never lose to Baltimore. He has won six straight and is 8-2 in 10 career starts against the Ravens, including a win in the 2009 AFC Championship Game at Heinz Field.

Roethlisberger threw for 253 yards and a touchdown in his lone start against Baltimore this season. He missed the first meeting while serving a suspension and Pittsburgh still only lost by three.

Like every game between the NFL's two most physical teams, this game is going to be a bloodbath. Having last weekend off will definitely have the Steelers fresher late in the game and that might be the difference.

Why Baltimore win the rubber: Simply because the Ravens are due to win one of these games. It's weak reasoning, I know, but it truly is that cut and dry.

Look at the box scores from recent games between these two and you'd be hard pressed to find one standout performer on either offense, which is usually where analysts look when searching for a reason to pick a team. These games are controlled by the defense and the winner is usually the one who has the ball last or the team whose offense is set up with great field position thanks to a turnover created by the defense.

In fact, that's how both won their game during the regular season. Baltimore's game-winning drive in Week 4 was a four-play, 40-yard drive. Pittsburgh's was three plays and nine yards. Not exactly John Elway versus Cleveland.

Ray Rice didn't muster a game's worth of production in two against Pittsburgh's defense and Flacco was just okay. One of them needs to step up and Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs and Co. must make the Steelers' offense one dimensional. If they do that and create a perfectly timed turnover, the Ravens will break through.

They almost did it on this field in 2009 when Flacco was still in diapers. Let's see how far he's come.

Prediction: Unless Ray Rice has a monster game, I don't see Baltimore winning. The Steelers are rested and playing at home. The Ravens are playing their second road game in six days. That will have a big impact down the stretch. Roethlisberger delivers again. Steelers win, 16-12.

Green Bay Packers (NFC Wild Card) vs. Atlanta Falcons (NFC South champion):

What happened in the regular season: The host Falcons defeated the Packers 20-17 in their Week 12 matchup.

The Falcons took the lead three times and each time the Packers responded with a score of their own. Their final rebuttal came with 56 seconds left when Aaron Rodgers hit Jordy Nelson from 10 yards out, tying the game at 17.

Matt Ryan answered by marching Atlanta 20 yards in six plays to set up Matt Bryant's game-clinching 47-yard field goal.

Why Atlanta will win the rematch: Because they're the NFC's best team and have been all season long. Consider this: of the Falcons' three losses, one was in overtime at Pittsburgh, and one came in the final minutes against the Saints in a game they basically gave away after leading for much of it.

They had only one bad showing all season, a 31-17 shellacking at Philadelphia in mid-October.

The Falcons offense reminds me of the Cowboys unit from the mid-90's. Ryan is Troy Aikman in that he doesn't always overwhelm you with numbers, but he wins with efficiency and always seems to deliver when he is needed most. Micheal Turner is Emmitt Smith; a small bruiser of a running back that mixes power with speed and always ranks among the top three backs in football. Roddy White looks a lot like Michael Irvin because he serves as a big target for his quarterback and is great as a possession receiver or a deep threat.

Dallas had more to work with at backside receiver, but with respect to Jay Novacek, Atlanta has a much better tight end in Tony Gonzalez.

It's going to take a great performance to beat arguably the NFL's most sound team with that three-headed monster. Add that to the fact that Ryan has a 20-2 record at the Georgia Dome and it becomes very difficult to bet against Atlanta.

Why Green Bay will get its revenge: I said it last week and I'll say it again: Aaron Rodgers will not be denied.

Rodgers won his first playoff game last weekend in Philadelphia, hardly an easy task. The elements, the stage, and a tough Eagles defense did little to disturb Rodgers, as he threw for 180 yards and three touchdowns and controlled the game throughout.

He threw for 344 yards and a touchdown and ran for 51 yards and a score in the November loss to Atlanta, and the scary part is, those numbers could be better on Saturday.

According to ESPN Stats and Information, Green Bay used five-receiver sets on 14 plays in their first meeting. Rodgers went 7-for-9 for 95 yards and added a rushing touchdown as well. The Packers would be foolish not to use these sets more often because clearly the Falcons have trouble defending them and Rodgers is comfortable running them.

Prediction: I love the Falcons and all that they bring to the table, but I can't bring myself to pick against Rodgers right now. Because he is so great, I didn't even get the chance to talk about the defense. That unit, led by Clay Matthews, is a force to be reckoned with.

It held Michael Vick to just 32 yards rushing, and the Eagles to 81 total yards on the ground. I think they contain Turner and put the game into the hands of Atlanta's brilliant, young quarterback. Ryan isn't ready to outduel Rodgers and will still be searching for his first playoff win come late Saturday night. Packers win, 27-23.

Seattle Seahawks (NFC West champion) vs. Chicago Bears (NFC North champion): 

What happened in the regular season: Seattle went into Soldier Field and notched its best win of the season, defeating the Bears 23-20.

Chicago struck first, but the Seahawks controlled the game from that point forward. They led 23-13 late in the fourth until Devin Hester gave the Bears a chance with an 89-yard punt return for a touchdown. Seattle recovered the ensuing onside kick, wrapping up the upset victory.

Matt Hasselbeck threw for 242 yards and a touchdown and the defense sacked Jay Cutler six times.

Why Seattle will win the rematch: Because their defensive pressure will again be too much for Cutler to handle.

The easiest way to beat Cutler is by knocking him around. He tends to have a quick trigger under pressure and can trust his arm strength too much at times. The most surprising thing about the first meeting was that Cutler played a turnover-free game despite getting hounded all day by the Seahawks' front seven.

Seattle's offense could have a hard time moving the ball against a rested Bears defense, so it will be on its defense to confuse Cutler and force him to play faster than he'd like. If they can come up with three turnovers, a second consecutive upset win will be within reach.

Why Chicago will get its revenge: Because despite losing the early-season meeting to Seattle, the Bears are a much better team.

Thanks to the bye week, Chicago had a chance to sit back and rest and Seattle won't be in the comfort of its own stadium this week. Offensive Coordinator Mike Martz had an extra week to prepare for the rematch and I expect their protection schemes to be much better this time around.

I also can't see the Seahawks scoring 23 points again against the Bears defense, which ranked ninth in the NFL this year and surrendered just 17.9 point per game.

Cutler could have a field day against the Seahawks, who gave up nearly 500 yards of offense to New Orleans.

Prediction: Everyone knows how I feel about Seattle, and as surprised as I was by its performance last weekend, I would be even more shocked if they pulled this one off.

QWest Field is one of the toughest places for opponents to play and the vaunted "12th Man" definitely helped the Seahawks against the Saints. They won't have the extra support this week, and were just 2-6 on the road in 2010.

I think we'll see an inspired performance from a Bears defense that probably feels it has a score to settle from the first meeting. Brian Urlacher and Co. control this one from start to finish. Chicago moves on, 30-13.

New York Jets (AFC Wild Card) vs. New England Patriots (AFC East champion):

What happened in the regular season: The Jets and Patriots split the season series with each winning by double digits on their home field.

The Jets won 28-14 in Week 2, while New England had the statement victory of the NFL season, a 45-3 Week 13 spanking on Monday Night football for all of the world to witness.

Tom Brady threw for 326 yards and four touchdowns and the Patriots defense turned Mark Sanchez over three times.

Sanchez was at his best in the early meeting, throwing for 220 yards and three touchdowns, outplaying Brady, who threw two interceptions and lost a fumble.

Why New England will win the rubber: Because they have Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.

Together they have won 14 playoff games and three Super Bowls. Brady is likely to be named the NFL's MVP after posting a ridiculous 36-4 touchdown-interception ratio, and Belichick should be named NFL Coach of the Year after the job he did with a squad that is supposedly rebuilding.

The Patriots haven't lost since early November and won six of their last seven games by 21 points or more, scoring no less than 31 points in any of the seven games. The defense has hit its stride as well, giving up seven points or less in four of five December contests.

New England is 8-0 at home this season and has been as dominant as any team in the last ten decade.

Why New York will win the rubber: Because Head Coach Rex Ryan has been able to convince his players that they are capable of anything.

The key to beating the Patriots is believing that you can get it done and not being intimidated. Since the beginning of their run of excellence in 2001, many teams have walked into Foxboro defeated before the coin was flipped.

Ryan won't allow that to happen. His defense is playing well, and while Sanchez remains a liability, he stepped up and delivered big time against the Colts with the season on the line last Saturday. The way the Jets came back and stole that game after trailing with 53 seconds to play could have them more confident then if they went into Lucas Oil Stadium and won by 20.

The Jets made no secret that getting past Peyton Manning was a major hurdle mentally and that win could be exactly what New York needed as it tries to cut down another giant.

Prediction: With December's 45-3 loss fresh in my mind, it is very difficult to paint a scenario where the Jets win.

Yes they won in Indianapolis, but that was against a Colts team that was as weak in 2010 as it has been since Manning entered the league.

Rex Ryan has visited Gillette Stadium twice and the Jets lost both games by a combined score of 76-17. After a week of sitting quietly while everyone on the Jets ran their mouths, New England will be ready to do its talking on the field.

One down, one to go for a return trip to the Super Bowl for Brady and Belichick. Patriots win, 34-17.

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