NFL Playoff Predictions: Divisional Round Picks You Can Bet the House On
It's time to make some NFL Playoff picks! The divisional round is kicking off in just over 24 hours, which means it's time for us to give you our locks for this weekend's games.
We're doing things a bit differently with our picks this week, what with only four games. We're taking a much more in-depth look at each of the teams' offenses and defenses before telling you who we're picking, and why. That way, even if you weren't really paying attention in the regular season, you'll still know what you're talking about when you head into a sports bar!
Let's get rolling, shall we?
Seattle Seahawks Vs. Chicago Bears: The Seahawks' Offense
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Much like their record, the Seahawks' offense leaves quite a bit to be desired. They rank 28th in total yards this season, and 23rd in points scored.
They couldn't run the ball much, ranking 31st in the NFL in rushing yards, unless they were already near the end zone (12th in rushing touchdowns).
But, as we saw in the wild card round, this team is capable of big things, posting 41 points and 414 yards on a Saints defense that had looked pretty sharp all season.
The key for the 'Hawks? Matt Hasselbeck. If he reverts to zombie form (one of those 18-for-30, 155 yards and a pick kinds of days), they could be in serious trouble offensively. If he's where he was last week, they could shock the world.
The Bears' Offense
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The Bears aren't quite as hapless as the Seahawks offensively, but they're not going to overwhelm anyone, either.
The Bears actually rank worse than Seattle in total offensive yards, falling 30th, although they do rank 21st in points scored.
What damage they inflict, they do through the air, having thrown for 25 touchdowns and rushed for just 10.
If quarterback Jay Cutler can avoid sacks, he could prove the difference maker in this one.
The Seahawks Defense
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Much like the offense, Seattle's defense isn't much to look at. They rank 27th in yards allowed, and 25th in points allowed.
In every measurable statistic, they rank no better than 18th, and really struggle against the pass. Even when they upset the Saints, the Seahawks allowed over 400 yards passing to Drew Brees.
However, they seem extremely adept at getting to the quarterback, and Chicago's biggest vulnerability is it's offensive line.
If Chris Clemons and Raheem Brock wreak enough havoc, Seattle could neutralize the Jay Cutler factor.
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The Bears' Defense
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Chicago, meanwhile, has owned one of the NFL's better defenses in 2010. They rank ninth in yards allowed, and fourth in points.
They're solid enough against both the run (2nd in yards allowed, 20th in points) and the pass (20th in yards allowed, 2nd in points), and given Seattle's offensive ineptitude, they should be able to keep the Seahawks in check.
However, in recent weeks, they've shown a nasty habit of giving up points by the bushel. The've allowed 20 or more points in four of their last six contests, which isn't good for a team who needs solid performances by their defense.
The Verdict
5 of 20
Sure, Seattle was a nice story with their upset last week. But on the road, in front of a Soldier Field crowd ready to make Matt Hasselbeck squirm, don't look for them to do it again.
Their defense is too shaky, pass rush or not, and the Bears (unlike the Saints) can stop the run.
It might not be pretty, but look for Da Bears to get the job done.
Final Score: Chicago 24, Seattle 17.
Baltimore Ravens Vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: The Ravens' Offense
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The Ravens' offense is nothing if not balanced. They rank 22nd in total yards and 16th in points, and it's a pretty even split between rushing (ranked 14th in yards and 18th in points) and passing (ranked 20th in yards, and 15th in points).
If quarterback Joe Flacco and Ray Rice can get rolling like they did against Kansas City last week, they could be rolling to the AFC title game.
The Steelers' Offense
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Like Baltimore, the Steelers' offense does everything relatively well, but doesn't excel at anything. They rank 14th in total yards and 12th in total points.
The passing game has been hot-and-cold since Ben Roethlisberger returned, and ranks 14th in yards and 22nd in points.
However, one of the most consistent aspects of the Pittsburgh offense is running back Rashard Mendenhall. The Steelers rank 11th in rushing yards and 8th in rushing touchdowns largely because of his consistency. As long as you give the third-year man 18 to 20 carries, he's good for 80-100 yards and a score.
They'll need every bit of him this week.
The Ravens' Defense
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Ah, yes; the meat of this game is on the defensive side of the ball. The Ravens defense has been formidable all season, ranking third in points allowed. They don't fare so well giving up yards, ranking 10th, and they really struggle against the pass.
Sure, the Ravens' safeties are still elite, but their corners are the primary cause for ranking 21st in yards allowed to the pass, and 9th in points.
If they can get the passing game under control, Baltimore will be in business.
The Steelers' Defense
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The Steelers might have the best defense in the NFL. They rank second in points allowed and fifth in yards, and lead the league in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns allowed.
The Steelers defend the pass with their unique pass-rush schemes rather than shutdown corners. While they're a ball hawking unit, Pittsburgh's secondary ranks 21st in points allowed, and 12th in yards. If you're going to beat them, you'll have to do it through the air.
However, even that isn't safe with safety Troy Polamalu roaming around. If Troy's ready to roll, the Steelers could easily roll over the Ravens in this one.
The Verdict
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Expect this one to be the most brutal game of the bunch, without a lot of flash, points or offense of any sort. Just good, old-fashioned hard-nosed football.
In the end, the Steelers are a bit better at that game, even if the Ravens beat them in Pittsburgh earlier this year.
Baltimore is talented, to be sure, but their shaky secondary doesn't inspire much confidence, and with Ben Roethlisberger firing to Mike Wallace, they won't be able to stop it.
Final Score: Pittsburgh 17, Baltimore 14.
Green Bay Packers Vs. Atlanta Falcons: The Packers' Offense
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The Green Bay Packers have one of the most potent passing games in all of football, thanks to quarterback Aaron Rodgers. They rank fifth in passing yards and fourth in points scored through the air.
The run game, on the other hand, is nowhere near one of the league's best. The Pack rank 24th in yards rushing and 18th in rushing touchdowns, thanks to the injury to Ryan Grant. However, James Starks did post a monster game against the Eagles, and could do it again.
In short, if Green Bay plans on winning this one, Aaron Rodgers will probably have to do it by himself.
The Falcons' Offense
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The Falcons might have one of the most balanced offenses in all of football. They rank in the top 10 in both passing touchdowns (eighth) and rushing touchdowns (fifth). Their offense can put up yards, too, ranking 16th in the league.
Quarterback Matt Ryan is a leader capable of making plays at any time, while running back Michael Turner is a grinding, punishing power back.
If the Falcons avoid the sort of vanilla play calling that got them in trouble against the Saints in Week 16, Atlanta's offense has the balance to find success against Green Bay's formidable defense.
The Packers' Defense
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Green Bay's defense is among the most formidable in all of football. They rank fifth in total yards allowed, and second in points. They're superb against the run, ranking 18th in yards allowed and 3rd in points, and even better against the pass, ranking in the top five in both categories.
They can rush the passer, drop into coverage, or stop the run. As long as the Packers' defense is functioning, you can bet they'll be in this game.
The Falcons' Defense
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It's a tale of two teams defensively for the Falcons. Against the run, the Birds excel, ranking 10th in yards and eighth in touchdowns allowed this season on the ground.
Against the pass, though, Atlanta has struggled all season, ranking 23rd in yards allowed and 22nd in touchdowns.
Their pass rush, led by John Abraham and his 13 sacks, is tough, but with such a soft secondary, the Falcons could be in trouble against the pass-happy Packers.
The Verdict
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Aaron Rodgers has turned into one of the NFL's elite quarterbacks. He and the Packers pushed the Falcons to their limit in Week 12, and if head coach Mike McCarthy has made the necessary adjustments (giving the ball to James Starks, making sure Michael Turner can't run roughshod again), the Packers should come away with the win in the rematch.
Atlanta is a good team, and won't go down at home without a fight. In fact, they could definitely win this one.
But in the end, the Packers' aerial superiority wins out.
Final Score: Green Bay 27, Atlanta 24.
New York Jets Vs. New England Patriots: The Jets' Offense
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The Jets' offense lives and dies by it's ability to run the football. They rank fourth in rushing yards, and ninth in rushing touchdowns, which is good, because the passing game is maddeningly inconsistent.
With Mark Sanchez under center, the Jets aerial attack has run as hot and cold as anyone's in the NFL. They ranked 22nd in passing yards and 23rd in passing touchdowns this season. Sanchez has struggled of late, but if he can turn things around, things could be looking up for the sixth seed in the AFC.
The Patriots' Offense
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Despite losing one-time stud wideout Randy Moss, the Patriots offense remained one of the league's most potent, ranking first in total points and eighth in yards. Much of that came through the passing game, as quarterback Tom Brady led the offense to the 11th most passing yards and the most passing touchdowns in the league.
But the Pats are no one-trick pony. Their running game ranks ninth in the league in yards and second in touchdowns.
For the Pats offense, the run will be essential this week against the Jets. BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead will need to step up in a big way.
The Jets' Defense
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This is where the Jets' strength is. New York's vaunted defense ranks third in the league in yards allowed, and sixth in points allowed this season.
The strength comes from a run defense that allowed the third fewest yards in the NFL this season. Their pass defense ranks 6th in yards allowed, but 19th in touchdowns given up.
In short, the Jets have to focus on closing down as many passing lanes as possible, and force the Pats to beat them exclusively with the run.
The Patriots' Defense
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The Pats defense started the season pretty poorly, but got things together quite well down the stretch.
They rank 25th in the league in yards allowed, but ninth in points. Why so bad in yards? The secondary.
New England's defense leads the NFL in interceptions, but rank 30th in yards allowed. They're a high-risk, high-reward kind of unit, capable of having a great game or a howler.
The run defense is solid, ranking 11th in yards and 10th in points allowed, but the key for New England is that secondary.
The Verdict
20 of 20
The Pats just have too many weapons offensively for the Jets to keep up.
Sure, New York's defense is scary. But the Pats dropped 45 on them in Week 13, and not much has changed since then. And New England's defense is exactly the kind of unit that gives Mark Sanchez fits: route-jumpers and ball-hawkers.
Look for the Patriots to hold serve at home here, and move on to the AFC title game.
Final Score: New England 28, New York 21.
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