NFL Playoff Preview: New England's Experience Will Outsmart New York Jets' Youth

For my last NFL prediction of the week, we have another epic grudge match.  These two teams play in the same division, and their historic rivalry goes back ten years, maybe even more!  They’ve been going back and forth at each other in the press all week, so you know that they hate each other and we’ll be seeing some aggressive hits on Sunday.  Here we go, folks.  This is Jets vs. Patriots, Round Three!

Record

Now, despite my passionate hatred of the Patriots, Bill Belichick, etc., I’m going to do my best to be impartial in this prediction.  That being said, let’s analyze the New England record.

The Patriots clinched the AFC East and top seed in the AFC with an astounding 14-2 record.  Of those 14 wins, eight came against teams that didn’t make the playoffs.  Yet, the remaining six are what I really want to look at.

As all NFL fans know, the Patriots made a habit of running up the scoreboard this season.  Yet, in games against playoff teams, the Patriots had a bit of a hard time running away with the score (save for two lopsided wins against Chicago and the Jets, with scores of 45-3 and 36-7).  Against non-contenders, they had no problem putting points on the board.

Now let’s analyze the Patriots’ two losses.  One was an embarrassing 34-14 loss to the Cleveland Browns.  Yes, I know it was on the road.  Yes, I know that every team has a bad game.  Still, these are the New England Patriots!  There’s no reason they should have lost to the Browns, let alone give them 34 points!

The one other loss, however, was to the New York Jets in Week 2.  The score: 28-14.  I know that it was when Randy Moss was still with the team and being a distraction, but it goes to show that Rex Ryan knows the New England defense.  Granted, the Jets got destroyed 45-3 some weeks later, but Mark Sanchez was hurt and it was in the middle of a storm, if I remember correctly.

Still, you can’t take away from the fact that the Patriots managed to win against some of the NFL’s elite.  Thus, they win this part of the battle.

Edge: Patriots

Quarterback

Now, I know that in saying this, I’m probably going to have to add another group of fans to the ones that already hate me.  Still, it needs to be said and there are other non-Jets fans that will agree with me.  Tom Brady is overrated!

He has a great offensive line, which I’m starting to think is just a bunch of robots considering how good those guys are, and he plays in an offense that calls for him to go deep quite often.  Thus, it can certainly be argued that his stats are inflated.

Still, that doesn’t take away from the fact that when Brady is on, he is ON.  He finished this season with a passer rating of 111.  That’s just unbelievable in my mind.  He threw for 3,900 yards and 36 touchdowns.  To add to the ridiculous offensive line theory, he only threw four interceptions and was sacked only 25 times.

Yet one must remember that despite all of the things that make Tom Brady overrated in my opinion, he’s still an elite quarterback.  He has been to the Super Bowl four times, winning three, and is one of two quarterbacks to lead his team to an undefeated regular season, the other (or others) of course being the tandem of Earl Morrall and Bob Griese of the 1972 Miami Dolphins.

I love Mark Sanchez, but he’s still a young man with a lot to learn.  Tom Brady has been on this battlefield many times and with home-field advantage, he comes out on top in this regard.

Edge: Patriots

Running Game

Here we have the first complicated matchup of this game.  The Jets finished 2010 with a running game that finished fourth in the NFL, while the Patriots ranked ninth.  Let’s have a look at the two backs that comprise New England’s rushing offense.

First, let’s take a look at the power back in BenJarvus Green-Ellis.  He’s the typical nose-to-the-grindstone power runner one would associate with the offense at Ole Miss, much like Dexter McCluster of the Kansas City Chiefs.

In 2010, Green-Ellis finished with 1,008 yards and 13 touchdowns, but essentially proved to be a one-trick pony.  He had a couple of games with over 100 yards rushing, not to mention a few with almost that much, but really made his mark as the guy who got the ball and bulldozed his way into the end zone after Brady threw the team to inside the 10 yard line.

I did the math.  Overall, Green-Ellis averaged about 63 rushing yards a game.  The 13 touchdowns are great but if I’m putting together a team that has a true shot at winning a championship, I don’t want a running back who averages as little as that.

On the other hand, finesse running back Danny Woodhead was a true surprise at the position.  After being released by the Jets in Week 1, the Patriots signed him and the rest as they say is history.

Woodhead didn’t run for many yards, only 547 and five touchdowns, but he proved to be a valuable player overall as he exhibited amazing hands.  He made 34 catches for 379 yards and one touchdown, exhibiting speed that made him a pest for any defender trying to tackle him.

Still, given the re-emergence of LaDanian Tomlinson and continuing development of Shonn Greene, I have to give this one to the Jets.  The Patriots run defense was alright, ranking 11th, but the Jets will run the ball throughout the game and I just don’t think New England’s defenders will be able to keep up with them.

Edge: Jets

Passing Offense

If anything can be attributed to the explosive offense of the Patriots the second half of the season, it’s the team’s multiple options in the passing game.  They have two top receivers and two great young tight ends.  With that cyborg-line protecting Brady, the stats speak for themselves.

Let’s start with one of Brady’s favorite targets, Deion Branch.  After coming back to New England in a trade with Seattle a few weeks into the season, Branch was reunited with the quarterback with whom he had already won two Super Bowls. 

He finished 2010 with 61 catches for 818 yards and six touchdowns, and probably would have reached 1,000 yards had he not been drowning in a Pete Carroll offense to start the season.  Either way, he established himself as a deep threat in Foxboro.

In the second slot, the Patriots have another deep threat and amazing possession man in Wes Welker.  Despite having an off 2010, Welker still managed to put up decent numbers, making 86 catches for 848 yards and seven touchdowns (up from four in 2009).  Simply put, the man knows how to get open and is considered by defenders to be one of the toughest receivers to tackle, let alone catch!

The tight end situation, though, is what really sets the Patriots apart from other teams.  While most teams have two tight ends, usually employing one for the receiving duties, the Patriots use both quite effectively.  Even more amazing, their two tight ends are rookies!

Rob Gronkowski made 42 catches for 546 yards, overall modest numbers.  But to go with those stats, he had ten touchdowns!  His counterpart, Aaron Hernandez, had 45 receptions for 563 yards and six touchdowns.  Needless to say, the Jets are going to have to cover these two men and in the process, take a risk leaving Branch and/or Welker open.  Pick your poison, Rex!

Still, I’m not going to automatically give the receiving edge to New England, and let me tell you why.  Simply put, these guys are banged up!  Hernandez has a sore hip that has been limiting him in practice, and a sore knee has slowed Branch.  On top of that, dark horse receiving target Danny Woodhead is coming back from a concussion!  I know he has been a full participant in practice, but it still needs to be taken into account.

Call me a hater, but I can’t see a banged up New England receiving squad putting up overwhelmingly good numbers against a punishing Jets defense.  They certainly have the edge in chemistry and how long they’ve played together, but the Jets receivers are out to make a statement.

Edge: Even

Defense

On paper, it’s easy to say that the Jets have the superior defense.  Theirs ranked 3rd in 2010, and New England’s was 25th.  It’s kind of astounding how a team can go 14-2 and have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  Then again, look at Peyton Manning’s success!  Either way, let’s look at the New England defense.

Like Rex Ryan, Coach Belichick employs a 3-4 defense.  The front line is anchored by nose tackle Vince Wilfork, who turned in a good season with 57 tackles and two sacks.  Yet his help on the defensive line is underwhelming.  To his left, he has 10 year veteran Gerard Warren.  This man only had 28 tackles and to this day, has never really had the success experts expected of him after he was selected 3rd overall in the 2001 NFL Draft.  On Wilfork’s right, there’s Myron Pryor, who only had 12 tackles.  I know he missed a good chunk of the season, but that’s just unacceptable for a defensive end.

The linebacking corps is more talented, led by third year player Jerod Mayo.  This man is a top coverage linebacker who had a great 2010, leading the NFL with 175 tackles and even registering two sacks.  He has an up-and-coming coverage linebacker helping him in Brandon Spikes, who registered 61 tackles in his rookie campaign.

The other two linebackers, Tully Banta-Cain and Rob Ninkovich, handle the pass rush as the former finished with five sacks and the latter with four.  Ninkovich even proved valuable in coverage, picking off two passes.

In the secondary, two men work the corner positions.  Kyle Arrington turned in a good 2010, with 71 tackles and one interception.  Even more impressive was rookie Devin McCourty, who had 82 tackles to go with two forced fumbles and an astounding seven interceptions.  In putting up those numbers, McCourty easily made himself a contender for Defensive Rookie of the Year.

At safety, Brandon Meriweather had another good season with 68 tackles and three picks.  His counterpart, Pat Chung, had an amazing second season as his punishing hits led to 96 tackles and three interceptions.

Overall, while the Patriots have a good young defensive squad with a lot of talent and long term potential, their front line and pass rushing linebackers simply do not create enough pressure for offenses to make mistakes.  I know McCourty had seven picks, but the defense as a whole did not play up to its potential.  The lack of sacks and forced fumbles shows it.  Thus, with all of the pressure they create, look for the Jets defense to come out swinging.

Edge: Jets

So, I’ve analyzed everything down to a tee.  I really want to predict this game to go one way, but this is reality and not Josh’s Fantasyland where all Massachusetts teams finish in last place year after year after year.  Time for me to buck up and give the score prediction.

Score Prediction: Patriots 20, Jets 17