NFL Playoff Predictions: Bill Belichick vs. Rex Ryan, Who Wins? Round 2 Picks
Round 2 of the playoffs is sure to be better than Wild Card Weekend, especially considering the drama that has taken place between Rex Ryan's New York Jets and Bill Belichick's New England Patriots. Although the Jets have pretty much been talking to themselves this week considering none of the Pats have issued any trash talk back.
Nevertheless, the stage has been set for an epic battle between the two teams. The Jets-Pats game isn't the only intriguing game of the weekend despite it getting, by far, the most media coverage.
Saturday's games feature a divisional battle between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens while the nightcap pits the Atlanta Falcons up against the red-hot Green Bay Packers. It's going to be a crazy weekend of football with every game being a rematch.
With that being said, it's time to take a look at which teams will come out on top in their respective rematches.
Three Keys to a Baltimore Win
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Joe Flacco must rise to occassion:
In his third season in the NFL, Flacco has continued to improve as evidenced by his stats. Flacco finished with 25 touchdowns this season compared to just 10 interceptions. Those are truly impressive numbers for the stoic-faced quarterback.
As impressive as those numbers are, they will mean nothing if Flacco comes up short against Pittsburgh. The Ravens will face off with their bitter rival tomorrow in a rubber match. Whether or not the Ravens will move on will come down to the play of Flacco.
Pittsburgh boasts the NFL's best run defense, so in order for Baltimore to move the ball, it's going to come down to Flacco. It's time for him to lead the Ravens offense to a victory in a big-time playoff game.
Defense must play four quarters:
One of the biggest struggles the Ravens have dealt with throughout the season is the defense fading in the fourth quarter. The best example of these struggles was the Monday night game against the Houston Texans. Baltimore had the game wrapped up but gave up 15 fourth quarter points sending the game into overtime, which they eventually won.
Against Pittsburgh, that can't happen.
Ray Rice needs to be a factor:
Combine Rice's two performances against the Steelers this season and he finished with a paltry 17 carries for 52 yards. The Ravens' biggest offensive weapon can't go silent in the rubber match; whether that means getting him more touches through the passing game or more carries on the ground is John Harbaugh's decision.
But the Ravens aren't going to win with Rice being a non-factor once again.
Three Keys to a Pittsburgh Win
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Keep Ben Roethlisberger standing:
It's no secret that Big Ben takes a lot of hits during the course of a game. Last time these two teams met, Roethlisberger ended up with a broken and bloodied nose. The Steelers offensive line has had their fair share of struggles this season, but they are going to need to step up against the Ravens defense.
Big Ben is masterful at alluding defenders and buying extra time for his receivers to get open; all it takes is one hit, though and the Steelers title hopes are in the hands of a backup QB.
Blitz Flacco early and often:
Even though Flacco's shown improvements in each of his first three seasons, there still is the perception he will crack under pressure like he has in the past. That's why Mike Tomlin needs to dial up blitz after blitz after blitz to start the game. It's important to try to get to the young QB before he settles in and finds his groove.
Test the Ravens' secondary
Pittsburgh is the better team, although not by much, playing at home; the best game plan is to try to jump out on Baltimore early and get a nice lead. The Ravens secondary has been vulnerable to the pass this season as the defense as a whole ranked 21st in the NFL against the pass. With the speedy Mike Wallace, the Steelers should take a couple of shots right off the bat to keep the Ravens on their toes.
Who Wins?
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Baltimore has already beaten Pittsburgh at home once this season, and it won't happen for a second time. The Steelers are simply better. I'd take them even if this game was played in Baltimore. Big Ben is 8-2 in the postseason and always rises to the moment when called upon.
Flacco won't crack under the pressure, but when the clock strikes zero, his team will be on the losing end. The Steelers have the better defense, more offensive playmakers and the better QB in this one; they'll move onto the next round and a game within the Super Bowl.
Prediction: Steelers 20, Ravens 14
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Three Keys to a Green Bay Win
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Stay with the run:
Mike McCarthy has the ultimate temptation with Aaron Rodgers at QB; it would be easy for him to ditch the running game to try to win this one with the prolific Green Bay passing attack. But that can't happen if the Packers want to go into the Georgia Dome and come away winners.
James Starks had a breakout performance against Philadelphia, and the Packers would be wise to give him 20 or so carries again. As good as Rodgers is, he can't win this one by himself. McCarthy has to avoid the temptation of abandoning the run game.
Force Matt Ryan to win the game:
Ryan is a solid QB, who doesn't make mistakes too often. Atlanta likes to run the football and grind the game out, which eventually wears a defense out over the course of the game. When the Falcons do throw the football, it usually is short intermediate routes that aren't very risky. The Packers need to do their best to take away the running game and force Ryan to beat them through the air; this is only his second start in the playoffs and who knows how he'll handle the pressure.
Get Rodgers on the move:
Rodgers doesn't have the speed of Michael Vick, but he can still hurt teams with his legs. Last week, he frequently alluded defenders and scrambled for a first down or found an open receiver. McCarthy needs to get Rodgers rolling out of the pocket where he is most dangerous. The Falcons give up the 22nd most yards to opposing passing attacks, so Rodgers could be in for a big day.
Three Keys to an Atlanta Win
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Don't get into a shootout:
The Packers possess a roster which has the capability of going up and down the field in a hurry. Not so much for the Falcons. Atlanta needs to do what they do best—move the chains with an efficient passing game and running the football with Turner. If the Falcons get into a shootout, they can kiss their Super Bowl aspirations goodbye.
Stay disciplined:
Saturday night's contest will take place between two teams who ranked near the bottom in the league in penalties—Atlanta had the lowest amount of penalties this season while Green Bay tied for third. The Falcons don't beat themselves, but that doesn't mean a lapse can't happen here and there, especially after a week off. Staying sharp and focused will be a huge key for Atlanta.
Take some chances:
This is the playoffs, it's win or go home. Mike Smith is the ringleader of the NFL's least flashiest team. In order to win in the playoffs, though, you have to take calculated risks. Open up the offense and allow Ryan to fling it around a little bit instead of employing a conservative approach on every drive. Roddy White is a tremendous receiver, who has the size and ability to take anyone deep; it's up to Smith to use him properly.
Who Wins?
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The Falcons are a well-oiled machine who keeps it relatively simple. Up against the Packers, they are going to face a dynamic offense which has just discovered a running game and a defense that is clicking on all cylinders.
Rodgers showed last weekend he can lead the Packers into hostile territory and come away a winner; it will be an even harder task considering how well the Falcons play at home. The Falcons remind me of the Carolina Panthers a few seasons ago when they went 12-4, earned a first-round bye and were lights out at home.
Carolina relied heavily on its rushing attack like the Falcons do and were virtually unbeatable at home. Of course, the red-hot Kurt Warner-led Arizona Cardinals came to town and stomped them en route to a Super Bowl appearance.
Now, the Packers are that red-hot team looking to pull off an upset in a tough environment, hoping to do what Arizona did to Carolina. And I think they will.
Prediction: Packers 34, Falcons 17
Three Keys to a Seattle Win
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Marshawn Lynch needs a repeat performance:
Pete Carroll's bunch played with heart and passion in an upset win over the New Orleans Saints. The biggest surprise from the game was the performance of the once highly-touted Lynch. Late in the fourth quarter, he broke off a truly amazing 67-yard run which cemented the game for Seattle.
A much taller task will come Sunday when Lynch will be running up against the NFL's second best run defense. The Bears have been vulnerable against the pass this season, but when it comes to stopping the run, only the Steelers are better. Regardless, Lynch is going to have to be relied on to move the chains against the Bears' defense.
Matt Hasselbeck needs to be more than a game-manager:
Throughout his career, Hasselbeck has gained a reputation for being a solid QB who is good at managing a football game. Against the Saints, Hasselbeck did a lot more than manage a football game; he won one. Hasselbeck finished with four TD passes and 272 passing yards. It truly was a blast from the past for the 35-year-old signal-caller.
A performance against the Bears defense on the road out in the cold could yield much different results, though. But if Seattle is going to improve its record to .500 and come within a game of the Super Bowl, Hasselbeck is going to have to provide another doozy of a performance.
Take away the Bears' running game:
Down the stretch run of the season, Matt Forte found his groove allowing Jay Cutler to play off the run game. The Seahawks are going to need to keep Forte stymied if they want to win. Everyone knows Cutler's propensity to make bad decisions at times; taking away the running game and forcing Cutler to make more throws ultimately increases the chances he'll make bad decisions.
This is Cutler's first playoff start, and for a gunslinger like himself, there's a good chance he'll force the issue on some throws. It's important for Seattle to take advantage when he does make mistakes. And he will.
Three Keys to a Chicago Win
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Cutler needs to stay poised:
When Cutler steps onto the field anything can happen; you could see a masterful 300-yard, five-passing TD day or an atrocious five INT game. Lovie Smith is going to need to establish the running game early on to let Cutler get settled in. But it's important that Cutler stays calm and composed when things aren't working instead of losing his composure and making Brett Favre-esque decisions.
Get Devin Hester the ball:
It will be interesting to see whether or not Seattle kicks to Hester. Assuming they don't, Smith and Mike Martz need to find creative ways to get the ball into Hester's hands. Hester isn't the world's best route-runner and his smaller stature limits him in the receiving game.
But throwing him screens and using him on reverses is never a bad idea. When these two teams met in Week 6, Hester only touched the ball twice on offense; that can't happen in the biggest game of the season.
Jam Seattle's receivers at the line of scrimmage:
The Seahawks don't boast a deep receiving corps or somebody who is a threat to go deep. Mike Williams revived his career with Seattle, but he finished with just 751 yards receiving and two TD's. Better numbers are expected from a No. 1 wideout in the NFL.
The Bears' corners need to get up at the line of scrimmage and be physical with the Seahawks' receivers; dropping back into zone coverage will allow a good route-runner like Brandon Stokley to find an opening in the zone.
Who Wins?
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Disregard the records in this one, folks. The Seahawks are coming into Soldier Field with an immense amount of confidence and absolutely no pressure to win. On the other hand, the Bears are the overwhelming favorite to advance and regardless of what they saw last weekend, this is a trap game.
Chicago knows its more talented and knows they should win this game by double digits. But what happens if the Seahawks come right out of the gates and pop the Bears in the mouth? Will they be able to respond or will the pressure start to sink in?
Playoff games often come down to the play of the QB, and in this case, Hasselbeck is an experienced vet who has won in the playoffs before whereas Cutler has never played in a game with this much on the line before. Not even in college.
Who do you want leading your offense on Sunday, Cutler or Hasselbeck? I know who I want.
Prediction: Seahawks 21, Bears 17
Three Keys to a Jets Win
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Run the football, limit Mark Sanchez:
It's never a good sign when your QB needs to be limited in order to win a football game, but that's the case with the Jets. Shonn Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson better be prepared for a full workload, Sunday. The Patriots' run defense is significantly better than their pass defense, although teams tend to throw the ball more against New England which distorts the numbers.
Regardless, the Jets are going to need to move the ball with their two backs and get Sanchez out on bootlegs where he has the option to run or throw the ball away if he can't find an open receiver.
Don't be over aggressive on defense:
Ryan has a tendency to dial up too many all or nothing blitzes over the course of the game. In the last meeting between the two teams—the 45-3 shellacking the Pats handed the Jets—Ryan took too many risky blitzes and got burnt by Tom Brady.
Against Indianapolis last weekend, the Jets' coach showed great control in not being overly aggressive when it came to blitzing Peyton Manning. Rex will need to have the same type of patience against Brady to come away with a W.
Stick to your guns and don't get cute:
With all of the hype heading into this one, it wouldn't be surprising to see the Jets empty their bags of tricks to try and catch the Pats off guard. Brian Schottenheimer needs to avoid doing this at all cost; the Jets are in the second round of the playoffs because they can run the ball and have a good defense.
Stick to the basics instead of trying to outsmart the other side with gimmick plays. That doesn't mean you can't dial up a flea flicker or an L.T. running back pass; just be smart about it and do what you've done all year long.
Three Keys to a New England Win
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Spread the ball around:
Belichick is a master at getting all of his offensive players involved, and he needs to stick to that philosophy against the Jets. If Darrelle Revis is matched up against Wes Welker for most of the afternoon, get the ball to Deion Branch and the two standout rookie tight ends.
Keeping the Jets off balance and making them struggle to know where the ball is going will be vital for the Pats. This shouldn't be a problem for Brady and Co.
Don't sellout completely to stop the run:
As big of a liability Sanchez is made out to be, the Pats don't possess the secondary to match up one-on-one with the Jets receivers. New England ended up 30th against the pass this season, which has to have receivers Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes licking their chops.
The Jets have a strong running game, but overselling to stop the run will give Sanchez opportunities to make big plays down the field. And after last weekend's big win over the Colts, the second-year pro's confidence is sky high.
Control the ball, win the time of possession battle:
The Pats' offense needs to be on the field as long as possible during Sunday's battle. Forcing the Jet defenders to play through long sustaining drives will be huge. Benjarvis Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead will be key factors in moving the chains via the run game and check down passes.
Winning the time of possession battle will be ultra important in this one for the Pats, as it's likely the Jets are going to try and grind it out with their running game. Whoever controls the ball the longest will win this game.
Who Wins?
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Nobody seems to think the Jets are going to go into Foxborough and come away with the victory. Despite the circus atmosphere the Jets have brought to this game, it's exactly what this team thrives on. Ryan has the Jets believing they can take down Brady and Belichick on the road.
Talk is cheap but in the case of the Jets, it's needed.
Like I said in the previous slide, whoever wins the TOP battle will win the game. With L.T. and Greene running the football, the Jets will be able to move the chains consistently. Sanchez will work off play-action and expose New England's Achilles heel, its secondary. Brady isn't going to have the luxury of wide open receivers as he did in the last contest with the Jets.
Ryan will be selective when blitzing like he was against the Colts. And for the second straight season, the Pats are going to fail to win a playoff game.
Prediction: Jets 23, Patriots 20
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