2011 NFL Mock Draft: Is Nick Fairley a Smarter No. 1 Pick Than Blaine Gabbert?
Much to the chagrin of the Carolina Panthers, Andrew Luck is staying at Stanford.
With news of his decision to remain in school, the NFL draft just got a hell of a lot cloudier.
Missouri's Blaine Gabbert is now most people's No. 1 quarterback, but it's still up in the air as to whether or not he should go No. 1 overall.
The other college football star who is fighting to be the top overall pick is Auburn's Nick Fairley.
The defensive tackle is a stud and could be a fixture in a team's defensive front for the next 10 years.
But when draft day finally rolls around in April, will it be Gabbert, Fairley or even Da'Quan Bowers who is chosen with the top pick?
Well, let's take a look in my 2011 NFL mock draft.
Note: Here's a link to my previous mock, so you guys can see the drastic changes this time around.
1. Carolina Panthers: A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
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Why Green in Special: Green's the most complete wide receiver prospect since Calvin Johnson. He's the most polished route runner in the last few drafts, and his measurements and production are both off the charts.
Why Green Goes Here: The Panthers were all in on Andrew Luck, but he stayed at Stanford. Carolina isn't in love with Blaine Gabbert like they were with Luck, and wide receiver is a more pressing need than both defensive tackle (Fairley) and defensive end (Bowers).
Why Green Fits: The addition of Green would give Jimmy Clausen another elite talent at wide receiver who could help take some pressure off of Steve Smith on the other side. Adding the draft's most talented receiver would certainly do wonders for Carolina's 32nd ranked scoring offense of 2010.
2. Denver Broncos: Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
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Why Fairley is Special: If it wasn't for Cam Newton, Fairley would be the Auburn player who everyone is talking about. He was the most dominant defensive player in the SEC all season and racked up 56 tackles and 12 sacks, which is tremendous for a defensive tackle.
Why Fairley Belongs Here: Watch this dude play. He eats up a ton of space in the middle. Though not as polished, he's this draft's Ndamukong Suh.
Why Fairley Fits: The Broncos were atrocious on defense all season, giving up more points than any defense in the league (29.4 per game) and the second most rushing yards (154.6 yards per game). They need all the help they can get on that side of the ball, and it starts with a guy like Fairley on the defensive front.
3. Buffalo Bills: Robert Quinn, DE/OLB, North Carolina
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Why Quinn is Special: Although he will not have played football for more than a year when he takes his first NFL snap, Quinn will be an absolute stud. He's arguably the draft's best pass rusher and can play either defensive end or outside linebacker.
Why Quinn Belongs Here: Though his absence from football could cause him to slip to that 5-to-10 range, he's a top five talent. The Bills could go with Da'Quan Bowers instead, but they'll likely be looking to replace the ultimate bust, Aaron Maybin, who could get the ax from the team.
Why Quinn Fits: The Bills really need help at rush linebacker. Quinn has the size and athleticism to be a force rushing off the edge in Buffalo's defensive system.
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4. Cincinnati Bengals: Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson
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Why Bowers is Special: Size, strength, athleticism, speed, agility; you name it, Bowers has it. He was virtually unstoppable this season, with 24 tackles for loss and an FBS-high 16 sacks.
Why Bowers Goes Here: Bowers will undoubtedly be the first or second defensive end off the board. It's just a matter of how high he goes. I can't see him slipping out of the top five no matter what, though.
Why Bowers Fits: The Bengals could go with a quarterback if they want to slowly transition out of the Carson Palmer era (doubtful) or A.J. Green (to make up for the loss of Terrell Owens and potentially Chad Ochocinco) if the Panthers don't take him. But they need help on the defensive line. Cincinnati ranked dead last in the NFL in sacks this season, and Bowers is a sack machine.
5. Arizona Cardinals: Patrick Peterson, CB, Arizona Cardinals
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Why Peterson is Special: Peterson is listed at 6'1", 211 pounds, which is monstrous for a cornerback. Teams never throw his way because he's the nation's best shutdown cornerback and one of college football's most feared defensive players. He's also shown some amazing skills as a return man this season.
Why Peterson Goes Here: He's not falling out of the top five. It's not very often that you find a defensive player who's big enough to play safety but fast enough to line up at cornerback. The only question is whether or not Arizona takes Blaine Gabbert here, because they badly need a quarterback.
Why Peterson Fits: Peterson's the best player on the board at this point, and the Cardinals struggled early in the 2010 season at stopping the pass. They did improve as the season progressed, but Peterson will be very tempting if he's still available.
6. Cleveland Browns: Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
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Why Dareus is Special: Dareus possesses the same size, strength and agility as your prototypical NFL defensive tackle. He can stuff the run, rush the passer and even play defensive end in certain 3-4 schemes.
Why Dareus Goes Here: He's one of the premier run-stuffers in this year's draft class and has shown the ability to be an unstoppable force up the middle.
Why Dareus Fits: Cleveland's defense ranked 27th in the league in rushing yards allowed in 2010 and run defense all starts with the defensive line. Dareus would be a heck of an anchor for the Browns front seven, which might not be as bad as the statistics indicate.
7. San Francisco 49ers: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
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Why Gabbert is Special: At 6'5", 240 pounds, Gabbert looks like your prototypical NFL quarterback. He's quickly risen up draft boards because of his surprising agility, his solid mechanics, his ability to avoid pressure and his potential to develop into an elite NFL starter.
Why Gabbert Goes Here: He's the No. 1 quarterback on most draft boards and he likely won't slip past the first seven or eight picks. Though Gabbert's still a bit raw, he's seen as the quarterback prospect with the most upside in the 2011 draft.
Why Gabbert Fits: The Jim Harbaugh regime in San Francisco has begun and Harbaugh did an excellent job at developing Andrew Luck at Stanford. The 49ers will need a new quarterback and if they can't swing a trade for a veteran—like Kevin Kolb or Donovan McNabb—they'll take Alex Smith's replacement here.
8. Tennessee Titans: Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon State
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Why Paea is Special: At 6'1", 304 pounds, Paea doesn't look like the greatest athlete on the field. But he posseses unbelievable quickness and agility for his size and he has developed a reputation for having one of the best motors in all of college football.
Why Paea Goes Here: Paea is a disruptive force up the middle, having registered 11 tackles for loss and seven sacks this season. He has the ability to take some of the pressure off of the rest of the defensive front.
Why Paea Fits: The Titans have been looking for a monster in the middle since losing Albert Haynesworth, so they'll give Paea a long, hard look. If Dareus is still on the board, though, Paea likely takes a considerable fall in the first round.
9. Dallas Cowboys: Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
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Why Amukamara is Special: Everything about Amukamara makes scouts think he's going to be a superstar. He's quick, he's fast, he has excellent cover skills, and at 6'0", 203 pounds, he's very big for a cornerback.
Why Amukamara Goes Here: One of the most interesting debates of the 2011 NFL Draft will be about which cornerback will go first: Amukamara or Patrick Peterson. No matter what happens, both of these guys should be great corners.
Why Amukamara Fits: Dallas needs secondary help for sure, especially with Mike Jenkins on his way out and Terence Newman's cover skills diminishing. Amukamara would be an instant starter for the Cowboys.
10. Washington Redskins: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
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Why Jones is Special: Jones needs to work on his route-running, but he's arguably the most dominant physical presence—not just at wide receiver, but in all of college football.
Why Jones Goes Here: Jones is an incredible playmaker at wide receiver and in the kick return game, but A.J. Green is a better pure receiver, so Jones will be the No. 2 wideout on the board.
Why Jones Fits: The Redskins have one of the league's most boring offenses with virtually no real threat in the passing game, other than the tiny Santana Moss. I mean, they actually used Joey Galloway at wide receiver this past season. Jones would be an immediate starter in Washington opposite Moss.
11. Houston Texans: Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M
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Why Miller is Special: Miller is a phenomenal athlete who possesses that rare ability scouts drool over. Want evidence? He had 16.5 sacks last season.
Why Miller Goes Here: He's got excellent speed, but at 6'3'', 238 pounds, he's a bit thin for a linebacker, which will cause some teams to overlook his ridiculous potential.
Why Miller Fits: With Wade Phillips as Houston's new defensive coordinator, the Texans will be shifting to a 3-4 scheme. DeMeco Ryans and Brian Cushing will likely switch to inside linebacker, so Miller could provide Houston with an elite rush linebacker, in the mold of DeMarcus Ware.
12. Minnesota Vikings: Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
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Why Kerrigan is Special: Kerrigan was a monster all season long at Purdue, raking in 12.5 sacks and leading the nation with 26 tackles for loss.
Why Kerrigan Goes Here: Kerrigan is known for his non-stop motor and ability to get after the quarterback. At just 259 pounds, he's similar to the Colts Robert Mathis.
Why Kerrigan Fits: The Vikings could certainly go quarterback, but Minnesota just had something missing from the team's defense last season. With Ray Edwards and Jared Allen in place, defensive end isn't a need, but Kerrigan could provide some more depth to the Vikings d-line and contribute in several different defensive packages.
13. Detroit Lions: Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA
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Why Ayers is Special: Ayers was one of the most highly-touted recruits coming out of high school and his physical attributes rank among the best in this draft class. He's got good size, he's quick and he excels as a push rusher.
Why Ayers Goes Here: Ayers would benefit from playing on a team with a 3-4 scheme because he'll make his money by applying pressure to the quarterback off the edge. But he also is versatile enough to play multiple positions in several different schemes.
Why Ayers Fits: Julian Peterson was recently released by Detroit, and the Lions will need to find his replacement. Who better than arguably the best prospect left on the board?
14. St. Louis Rams: J.J. Watt, DE/DT, Wisconsin
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Why Watt is Special: Watt was a force for Wisconsin up the middle this season, registering 62 tackles, two forced fumbles and seven sacks at defensive tackle. His size (6'6", 292 pounds) makes him versatile enough to play end or tackle depending upon the scheme.
Why Watt Goes Here: His ability to play multiple positions makes him an attractive option for plenty of teams in the first round. Watt might be off the board by this point, but if he's not, he could go here and immediately upgrade the Rams defensive line.
Why Watt Fits: The Rams were mediocre against the pass and the rush this year, and they don't have a bonafide defensive star on their roster. Watt could step in right away as a defensive tackle to help that defensive front.
15. Miami Dolphins: Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
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Why Ingram is Special: I believe this guy has had a solid college career. Didn't he win the Heisman Trophy or something like that?
Why Ingram Goes Here: He's the top running back in this draft, but another team in need of a running back could scoop him up prior to the Dolphins' selection. Still, any team looking for one of the hardest runners in college football will gladly take him.
Why Ingram Fits: Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown are both free agents this offseason, and there's a chance neither are brought back to Miami. Ingram would be a nice long-term replacement in the Dolphins backfield.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars: Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
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Why Clayborn is Special: His production hasn't really been there this year, but scouts love how he measures up. He's 6'3", 285 pounds, and has the ability to take over a game when his mind is right.
Why Clayborn Goes Here: The 2011 draft class has some incredibly talented defensive line prospects, and Clayborn is one of them. He's just not the best one of the bunch.
Why Clayborn Fits: Aaron Kampman tore his ACL for the second straight season, and his career is in doubt. Enter Clayborn, who should provide Jacksonville with a nice compliment to 2010 first-round choice Tyson Alualu on the defensive front.
17. New England Patriots (from Oakland): Cameron Jordan, DE/DT, California
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Why Jordan is Special: He's a very versatile defensive lineman with the ability to play end or tackle, depending upon the scheme.
Why Jordan Goes Here: Jordan has the skill set to be drafted higher than No. 17, but, as always, there are plenty of talented defensive lineman in the draft—and about seven or eight of them are graded higher than Jordan by most NFL scouts.
Why Jordan Fits: The Patriots use a three-man front, and Jordan has played in that scheme at Cal. It should be an easy transition into New England's system.
18. San Diego Chargers: Tyron Smith, OT, USC
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Why Smith is Special: Smith has shown incredible athleticism for an offensive tackle, and he's getting high grades from scouts and analysts across the country. At 290 pounds, he's exceptionally quick, though he will need to put on some weight to play in the NFL.
Why Smith Goes Here: Smith is a bit more of a project than most other offensive tackles in the draft, but he also has more potential than those guys. it wouldn't be a surprise to see him jump ahead of tackles with better resumes.
Why Smith Fits: San Diego's weakest position this season was right tackle, and the Chargers need someone who can do a better job of protecting Philip Rivers in pass protection.
19. New York Giants: Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
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Why Solder is Special: At 6'8'', Solder is massive even for an offensive tackle, and he uses his extreme size and length to his advantage.
Why Solder Goes Here: The 2011 draft class is surprisingly thin at the tackle position, and scouts aren't sure he has the potential to be an elite player in the NFL, so he won't go as high as people might expect.
Why Solder Fits: William Beatty really seemed to struggle at left tackle this season, and the Giants could use an upgrade at that position. Though Solder needs some time to develop, he could become a very good tackle down the road.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Cameron Heyward, DE/DT, Ohio State
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Why Heyward is Special: Heyward really struggled for a good chunk of the season, but he had a stellar performance in the Sugar Bowl and showed he can be an incredibly disruptive force on the defensive line.
Why Heyward Goes Here: Inconsistency is a big issue for Heyward, which is why he won't be drafted much higher than this. However, his talent level alone makes him a lock to be taken in the second half of the first round.
Why Heyward Fits: The Buccaneers need a compliment alongside Gerald McCoy on the defensive line. Though there are questions about whether Heyward is a DT or DE, he should provide a much needed lift to a Tampa Bay D-Line that didn't perform all that well in 2010.
21. Kansas City Chiefs: Justin Houston, DE/OLB, Georgia
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Why Houston is Special: Houston exploded onto the college football scene in 2010, with 19.5 tackles for loss and 11 sacks during his junior season. He's really made a name for himself as one of the better pass rushers in this year's draft class.
Why Houston Goes Here: He's sort of a one-hit wonder, who came from nowhere to have a stellar season. Houston isn't even a lock to enter the draft, but if he does, his draft positioning could depend a lot upon his performance at the combine.
Why Houston Fits: Tamba Hali was a beast for Kansas City this season, but the Chiefs didn't have much of a pass rush outside of the former Penn State player. Houston would provide them with another outside rusher, one who would really help out Eric Berry and Brandon Flowers in the secondary.
22. Indianapolis Colts: Jake Locker, QB, Washington
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Why Locker is Special: Locker hasn't put up great numbers during his college career, but he's showed steady improvement. He's got good size, a good arm and great athleticism, especially for a more traditional pocket passer.
Why Locker Goes Here: Locker could be anywhere from the second to the fourth quarterback chosen, so there's really no telling where he'll end up in the draft. His potential is what makes him worthy of a first round selection, though, because he could develop into a very good NFL quarterback down the road.
Why Locker Fits: I don't need to tell you that the Indianapolis Colts don't need a quarterback right now, but I could see them doing something similar to what the Packers did with Aaron Rodgers. Locker isn't ready to step in as an immediate starter, so letting him learn behind Peyton Manning could do wonders for his NFL career, much like Favre did with Rodgers in Green Bay.
23. Philadelphia Eagles: Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College
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Why Castonzo is Special: He's one of the top offensive lineman in this year's draft class with a big 6'7" frame that should fill out once he matures a bit more.
Why Castonzo Goes Here: Castonzo could very well go in the top 20 if he bulks up, but he's listed at just 295 pounds—pretty thin for an offensive tackle who is that tall. He needs to hit the weight room and prove he can add strength without losing any of his mobility.
Why Castonzo Fits: The glaring weakness on Philadelphia's offense this year has been its offensive line, which gave up the fourth most sacks in the NFL this year (49). Castonzo might be a bit of a project considering his weight issues, but he could eventually develop into a quality starter and help the Eagles give Michael Vick a little more protection.
24. New Orleans Saints: Drake Nevis, DT, LSU
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Why Nevis is Special: In the mold of former LSU defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey, Nevis is a disruptive defensive lineman who can get into the backfield about as quickly as anyone. He's very mobile for his size and can help against both the run and the pass.
Why Nevis Goes Here: He isn't the greatest at shedding blocks and tends to be an up-and-down player. He could fall out of the first round, but his impressive agility and production in college probably keeps him around that 20-to-30 range.
Why Nevis Fits: The Saints are looking for a long-term defensive tackle to pair up with Sedrick Ellis, and Nevis played his college ball about an hour away from New Orleans at LSU. Nevis fills a definite need on the Saints defensive line, but New Orleans could look to go with an end with this pick instead.
25. Seattle Seahawks: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
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Why Newton is Special: If you've watched any college football this season, you know why Newton is so special. He's a Heisman Trophy winner, a national champion and a human highlight reel. Newton is one of the top players, based purely on talent and potential, to enter the draft in years.
Why Newton Goes Here: Newton is an incredible dual-threat quarterback who is a better passer than Tim Tebow was, a more complete quarterback than Michael Vick was and clearly the best running quarterback prospect since Vince Young.
Why Newton Fits: Matt Hasselbeck's time in the league is nearing an end, and Charlie Whitehurst probably isn't the long-term answer in Seattle. Newton could learn under the tutelage of Hasselbeck for a year or two before taking over as the full-time starter.
26. Green Bay Packers: Brandon Harris, CB, Miami
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Why Harris is Special: At 5'11", 193 pounds, Harris has the prototypical size of an NFL cornerback to go along with good speed at the position. He's also got quick feet, is able to shed blocks from bigger wide receivers, and contributes in run support more than most corners.
Why Harris Goes Here: He's good in all aspects of the game but really isn't great in any of them. While he'll likely develop into a No. 1 corner rather quickly, he doesn't have the upside of guys like Patrick Peterson and Prince Amukamara.
Why Harris Fits: The Packers defense has been stellar against the pass this season, but Charles Woodson will turn 35 next season. Harris would be able to develop under Woodson's tutelage and play as a third cornerback before eventually taking over for Woodson.
27. New York Jets: Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois
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Why Liuget is Special: The best player on the Illinois defense, Liuget led the Fighting Illini in sacks (five), tackles for loss (12.5) and quarterback hurries (10). He really opened scouts eyes with a dominant performance against Baylor in the Texas Bowl, racking up five tackles and a sack.
Why Liuget Goes Here: Liuget probably would benefit from playing in a 4-3 scheme, but he's arguably the No. 3 pure defensive tackle in the draft behind Nick Fairley and Marcell Dareus. His performance against Michigan State (11 tackles) and strong end to the season pushed him into the back end of the first round.
Why Liuget Fits: It might be a tough transition to a 3-4 defensive end, but the New York Jets need help in that area. Liuget will likely be the highest rated defensive lineman on the board at this point, and he could step in and immediately contribute in certain packages for the Jets.
28. Baltimore Ravens: Allen Bailey, DE, Miami
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Why Bailey is Special: Teams love versatility, and that's exactly what Bailey possesses. He's a good interior pass rusher who also has the ability to rush off the edge. He had 46 tackles and seven sacks this past season, with 19 sacks over his final three seasons.
Why Bailey Goes Here: You can never have too many defensive linemen in the NFL. Bailey is considered to be a tweener who can play either tackle or end, depending upon the scheme.
Why Bailey Fits: Corey Redding hasn't been a great pass rusher for Baltimore this year, and he's been one of the few weak spots in the Ravens front seven. Bailey's exact position is still up in the air, but he's been a heck of a pass rusher no matter where he's lined up on the d-line.
29. Chicago Bears: Game Carimi, OT, Wisconsin
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Why Carimi is Special: Remember a guy named Joe Thomas who played at Wisconsin? Carimi's not quite the player Thomas was/is, but he's pretty close. Carimi was a first team AP All-American this season and was the glue that held together one of the nation's best rushing attacks.
Why Carimi Goes Here: Tackles usually fly off the board during the NFL Draft, and Carimi would be a steal this late. But with the way the draft is shaping up, there won't be as many first-round selections from the tackle position as usual. And at 23-years-old, by the time the season starts, Carimi is a bit more polished than some tackles who will be taken ahead of him.
Why Carimi Fits: Though Chicago's offensive lined improved over the course of the season, the Bears still gave up six more sacks (56) than any other team in the NFL. A big part of Jay Cutler's interception problem has been that offensive line, and Carimi is NFL ready.
30. Pittsburgh Steelers: Mike Pouncey, OG, Florida
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Why Pouncey is Special: The apple doesn't fall far from the family tree. Pouncey has a similar playing style to twin brother, Maurkice, who is currently Pittsburgh's starting center and made the Pro Bowl in his rookie season.
Why Pouncey Goes Here: The Steelers are looking to upgrade their interior line (one of the team's few weakness), and Pouncey is one of the very best, with an NFL-ready skill set. He should be picked higher than No. 30, but he could still be on the board because interior linemen generally aren't selected in the top portion of first round.
Why Pouncey Fits: Have twins ever played right next to each other in the NFL? I definitely think we need to see it happen. In all seriousness, though, Pouncey probably would have been a first-round pick last season. He's that good.
31. Atlanta Falcons: Aaron Williams, CB, Texas
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Why Williams is Special: Texas defensive backs have a good track record of recent success in the NFL, and Williams is no exception. He's used to playing on the inside and the outside, which will appeal to every team looking for a cornerback who can be used in multiple packages.
Why Williams Goes Here: This cornerback class is pretty loaded, and Williams will have to wait his turn to hear his name called. He's going anywhere from No. 20 overall to early in the second round in most mocks, but he's still highly rated among NFL scouts. Williams is as battle-tested as they come, having gone head-to-head with Ryan Broyles and Justin Blackmon this season.
Why Williams Fits: The biggest weakness on the Falcons this year? Pass defense. Though Atlanta did seem to improve in that area toward the end of the regular season, the Falcons secondary was torched by elite quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees throughout 2010.
32. New England Patriots: Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Pittsburgh
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Why Baldwin is Special: He's the closest thing to Larry Fitzgerald Pittsburgh will ever see, and he managed to put up good numbers even with a shaky quarterback situation. Baldwin will make jaw-dropping catches to bail out his quarterback and is as sure-handed of a wide receiver as there is in the draft.
Why Baldwin Goes Here: Baldwin needs to work on his route-running, but at 6'5'', 230 pounds, he's freakishly huge for a wide receiver. His potential is just too much for every team in the first round to pass up.
Why Baldwin Fits: There aren't too many weakness on the Patriots, and after addressing the defensive line with their first pick, they might be able to splurge a little bit with this one. Baldwin would provide Tom Brady with yet another target in the passing game, though I wouldn't be surprised to see New England trade this pick like they tend to do.
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