NFL Playoff Predictions: Wes Welker Says Foot, Breaking Down Jets vs. Patriots
My NFL Playoff predictions just got a little more interesting.
After New York Jets cornerback Antonio Cromartie called out New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady, Patriots receiver Wes Welker fired back with his own smack talk, referencing feet (an obvious allusion to Rex Ryan and Foot-Gate).
Now I'm not one to overhype some good ole' fashioned back-and-forth, but it's clear that this is a bigger deal than in some normal game. This is going to be an incredibly hard-fought, physical football game.
There are other games outside of this AFC East showdown, too, including Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers hosting Joe Flacco and the Baltimore Ravens, Pete Carroll and his underdog Seahawks traveling to Soldier Field to take on Jay Cutler and the Bears and Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers heading to the Georgia Dome to square off against Matt Ryan and the No. 1 seed in the NFC, the Atlanta Falcons.
But while Jets-Pats isn't the only game out there, it is the most talked about.
That being said, without further ado, here's a breakdown of the game, complete with my pick.
Team Ranks
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Passing Yards: Jets 22nd (202.6), Patriots 11th (240.4)
Rushing Yards: Jets 4th (148.4), Patriots 9th (123.3)
Opponent Passing Yards: Jets: 6th (200.6), Patriots 30th (258.5)
Opponent Rushing Yards: Jets 3rd (90.9), Patriots 11th (108.0)
Team Ranks: Analysis
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Analysis: Don't read too much into most of these numbers. The Patriots, despite their improved running game, live and die based on Tom Brady. Also, their pass defense seems pathetic, but teams are often playing from behind, meaning their pass defense is underrated but their rush defense is overrrated. The Jets will still focus on beating the Pats on the ground.
As for the Jets, the stats tell a lot about their offense, but it doesn't show how successful they've been passing in late-game situations, or how they've struggled defending the pass mightily in their worst games.
Deciding Factors: Turnover Margin
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Tom Brady hasn't had a turnover since Week 6. And while some of this is luck (he's had some dropped interceptions), most of it is Tom being Tom. And Mark Sanchez has improved vastly in limiting turnovers, but he's nowhere near Brady's level. Unless the Jets stay even with the Pats in turnovers or force more than them, the Patriots will win.
For the record, the Patriots were first in the NFL in takeaways (36) and had the fewest giveaways (9). That's a turnover margin of 27, 13 turnovers better than any other team in the NFL.
The Jets were solid, but at plus-four, they're nowhere near the Patriots' level.
Advantage: Patriots
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Deciding Factors: Jets Running Game
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If the Jets can control the clock and run all over the Patriots like they did to the Colts, they'll have the edge. They couldn't do it last time against New England, and fell into an early hole. New York isn't built to come back.
The Patriots' run defense isn't as good as their rank suggests, and its been abused in the few bad games they've played. New York should have a ton of success with LT and Shonn Greene.
Advantage: Jets
Deciding Factors: Wes Welker, Deion Branch, et. al vs. Antonio Cromartie
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Cromartie has some of the best physical tools of any cornerback in the league and has had a pretty good season overall, but he's had some really poor performances. He struggles against inside routes, and Welker, Branch, and whoever else is guarded by Cromartie will undoubtedly know this. But then again, Rex Ryan will have Cromartie prepared. If Cromartie gets burned, so will the Jets. If he holds his own (you know Revis will), the Jets will have a great chance.
Don't count out Cromartie because he's capable of stepping up, but the smart money is on the Patriots' receivers.
Advantage: Patriots
Key Stat: Patriots Third Down Defense
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The Patriots were last in the NFL in third down-defense, allowing a first down 47.1% of the time their opponents faced a third down.
They improved at the end of the season, but it's still a huge concern.
New York has struggled with its third down offense this year, but went 8-15 (53%) against the Colts, and looked really good.
Advantage: Jets
Jets X-Factor: Brad Smith
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Brad Smith is the ultimate X-Factor, a great returner as well as a solid receiver and dynamic wildcat quarterback.
But he's questionable for the game.
If he doesn't play, it's a huge blow for the Jets.
Patriots X-Factor: Danny Woodhead
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The Jets are regretting letting Danny Woodhead go.
The pint-sized running back averaged 5.6 yards per carry in 2010 and 11.1 yards per catch. He had four catches for 104 yards against the Jets last time, and will be a big part of the gameplan on draws and in the passing game.
New York had better watch out for Woodhead.
So Who Has the Edge?
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The experts aren't giving the Jets much of a chance because of what happened the last time these two teams squared off.
And while that's fair, all of the "The Patriots are a different team" regurgitations are a little misleading. Yes, the Patriots were a different team than when they first played the Jets. But the Jets aren't the team that got trounced, either. They just manhandled the Colts (on defense) and proved they can beat the top teams in the league (Steelers, anyone?). Not to mention they did beat the Patriots, regardless of when it happened.
If the Jets can stop Tom Brady like they did Peyton Manning, and run the ball effectively; they'll control this game and win. But clearly, that's easier said than done.
All things considered, the Pats have the edge. The Cromartie matchups with New England's receivers are worrisme, and I'm not all that sure that the Jets can keep the Patriots off of the field.
The smart pick is the Patriots, but it's not nearly as sure of a thing as many people are suggesting.
The Pick
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In the end, the Patriots are just too good for the Jets. Don't count New York out, but it will take an incredible effort for the Jets to win.
Patriots 27, Jets 21
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