2011 NFL Playoffs: Green Bay Packers vs. Atlanta Falcons Preview

To explain why the Green Bay Packers (11-6) and Atlanta Falcons (13-3) will play on Saturday to decide who goes to the NFC Championship game, both franchises can look back on one very significant decision.

The selection of their quarterback.

The Packers took Aaron Rodgers in the first round of the 2005 draft and after three seasons behind Brett Favre, Green Bay gave Rodgers the keys to the whole franchise in 2008.

He's led the Packers to two straight playoff appearances since and has had one of the greatest three-year stretches of quarterback play in franchise history (12,394 yards, 86 touchdowns).

The Falcons took a similar, but yet very different route to their quarterback. Just a year removed from losing the immensely popular Michael Vick to prison, Atlanta drafted Matt Ryan with the third pick in the 2008 draft and he's been the starter ever since.

Ryan has led the Falcons to 33 wins since taking over, including three straight winning seasons for the first time in franchise history.

But even so, the possible rivalry looming between Rodgers and Ryan has been lost in the shadows of this game.

Ryan, 25, and Rodgers, 27, will more than likely be battling in the playoffs for many years to come.

With that said, what do the Packers have to do to for Rodgers to win the first playoff game between these two?

Contain Turner

While Ryan is a solid quarterback, running back Michael Turner is the engine that makes the Falcons' offense go.

Weighing in at 244 pounds, Turner racked up 1,371 yards and 12 touchdowns this season. In the first game against the Packers, Turner broke numerous tackles on his way to 110 yards.

However, if you can stop Turner, you can effectively stop the Falcons as well.

In the Falcons' three losses this season, Turner failed to rush for over 50 yards. The Steelers (42), Eagles (45) and Saints (48) all pulled off the feat in defeating Atlanta.

It won't be easy, but the Packers might have to match that if they plan on handing the Falcons their fourth and final loss this season.

Goal: Keep Turner under 50 yards

Rattle Matty Ice

I can't imagine Ryan likes being called "Matty Ice," as the nickname is reference to one of the world's worst beers, but the Packers will need to rattle that cool demeanor he's known for.

And while the media made a big deal about Rodgers' lack of a playoff win before last week, Ryan has yet to win a playoff game either.

He didn't play particularly well in his first playoff game in 2008: Ryan was 26-for-40 passing for 188 yards and two touchdowns, but also had two interceptions and was sacked three times.

However, the Cardinals accomplishing that against a rookie quarterback on the road was one thing; repeating that against a three-year veteran in the Georgia Dome will be a much harder task.

Regardless, the Packers need to make sure Ryan doesn't get into a type of groove he did in the first matchup (24-of-28 passing).

Sacks and turnovers are the easiest way to do that.

Goal: Three or more sacks, two or more Falcons' turnovers

Establish The Run

The James Starks story has been told enough, but he'll need to add another chapter to his legend on Saturday.

Without Starks on Nov. 28, the Packers' run game was nearly non-existent (77 total yards), and Green Bay was only able to score 17 points because of it.

This time around, Starks and the Packers rushing attack has to be better. That will rely partly on Starks, but also on the offensive line.

Back in Week 12, the Falcons dominated the Packers at the line of scrimmage.

I'd be hard pressed to expect Starks to rush for 123 yards again this week, but you'd have to think the confidence from their performance in Philadelphia has to carry over somewhat.

If the Packers can get to 120 yards rushing against the Falcons, it'd be hard to believe this offense wouldn't have some considerable success against Atlanta's underrated, but far from impenetrable defense.

Goal: 120 yards rushing

Win The Special Teams

In a game with teams as even as the Packers and Falcons are, special teams can make all the difference.

You need look no farther than Week 12 for evidence of that. 

That game should have went to overtime tied 17-17, but the Packers' double whammy special teams blunder (Eric Weems' kick return and Matt Wilhem's 15-yard facemask) with under a minute left essentially gave the Falcons the win.

Those kind of mistakes cannot happen again on Saturday.

To the Packers' credit, their special teams has played considerably better in the past three games.

Maybe it took Dan Connolly's 313 pound rumble through the Packers' kick return coverage in New England to finally wake them up.

Either way, the Packers' special teams can't fall asleep again. This caffeine-laced formula for the special teams should do just that: Make field goals when given the chance, cover kicks and punts to give Atlanta long fields, provide the offense a spark on punt and kick returns and don't, under any circumstances, make any game-changing mistakes.

Easy enough right?

Goal: No negative (missed FG's, bad punts, long returns, turnovers) plays from the special teams.

Keep Riding The Wave

Possibly the most important key for the Packers is just continuing what they've been doing.

The past three games for the Packers have all been playoff-like games and they've played some of their best football in those games.

Those performances should give the Packers plenty of confidence coming into Atlanta.

Regardless of that, the Packers should be the loser team on Saturday. They've been written off countless times this season, and very few people even game them a chance to make the playoffs after everything they have endured this season.

I even all but wrote them off after their back-to-back losses to Detroit and New England.

But here they sit: They've won three straight games against three very good football teams and are now just one more win away from the NFC Championship game.

The Packers are playing with house money at this point, and they need to continue that style of play.

Because in reality, the Falcons are the one who need to prove they are the conference's No. 1 seed.

Goal: Ride the confidence into Atlanta—get ahead early.

Conclusion

The Packers may be the NFC's No. 6 seed, but they are far from the conference's sixth best team. In fact, Green Bay is possibly the best six seed in NFC history.

The Falcons, by virtue of their 13 regular season wins—including one over the Packers—deserve the No. 1 seed and home field advantage through the playoffs.

But will that advantage be needed past this weekend?

Don't get me wrong, the Falcons might have the perfect kryptonite to the Packers. With a punishing run game led by Turner and a savvy passing game under Ryan, Atlanta can cause the Packers' defense a lot of problems.

They also don't beat themselves and the Packers sometimes need that to happen to win close games.

And even their defense, which features a stout front seven, can turn the Packers one-dimensional. If that happens, this game will probably favor the Falcons in another close game.

However, I don't see those situations happening.

The Packers have had their backs to the wall for three straight weeks and they've caught fire at the perfect time. They won't fear heading into the Georgia Dome, either.

Rodgers and Starks will continue to provide the Packers' offense with plenty of production and balance, and the defense will make a championship caliber statement at the expense of Ryan and the Falcons' offense.

Confidence will grant them an early lead, and the defense will do the rest.

The Packers beat the Falcons 28-17.

This article was featured at Sports Haze. You can also follow Zach on Twitter at zachkruse2.