NFL Picks Ravens vs. Steelers: Predicting a High-Stakes Playoff Showdown
For the third time in the 2010-11 postseason, the Baltimore Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers meet. This forceful East Coast rivalry has become one of the most predominant in today's NFL, characterized by tough, talented players, formidable defenses, and coaches who are not afraid to think outside the box when it comes to play-calling.
The stakes are high - the winner knocks the loser out of the playoffs and earns a berth in the AFC Championship to face either the New York Jets or the New England Patriots.
Coming into the season, both of these teams faced controversy. Baltimore endured speculation as to whether it could handle an influx of big-name receiver acquisitions on its team, and whether it would be able to live up to the hype and win the AFC North or at the very least, grab a high wild-card spot and get in good position to win in the playoffs. Pittsburgh's team was critiqued heavily and, faced with a 4-game suspension of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and predictions that the 2010-11 season would just not be their year.
Turning around the doomsday predictions, the Steelers stand at 12-4 and have home-field advantage over the Ravens when this formidable road playoff contender comes to take them on at Heinz Field.
As always, it will be a close game. Intense? Definitely. Low-scoring? Most likely. Will the game's outcome be decided by a field goal? That remains to be seen.
With each team having scored the same total of 27 points against each other this season, and having split the season series, I anticipate another down-to-the-wire game with the playoffs on the line.
And without a doubt, it will be fun to watch.
Coming Into The Game: Steelers
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Record: 12-4
Once again, the Steel Curtain has shone, allowing the Steelers to notch a 12-4 record and a first-round bye. Troy Polamalu has 7 interceptions and a sack on the season. Linebacker James Harrison has 10.5 sacks and LaMarr Woodley has 10. The defense also held the Cleveland Browns in the last game of the regular season to only 9 points and the offense complemented, scoring 41 in a blowout.
On the season, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has a rating of 97.0. He has thrown for 3,200 yards with 17 TDs and 5 picks. Running back Rashard Mendenhall has 1,273 yards, 13 touchdowns, and an average of 3.9 yards per carry.
After a domination over Cleveland, which they needed to get a first-round bye, Pittsburgh gained some much-needed time to recuperate and recover from injuries. Their O-line has had to deal with some costly injuries and, with the exception of center Maurkice Pouncey, has really not done a great job this season with keeping Roethlisberger off the turf.
The defense, though, has always been the strength of this Steeler team and expect it to show up in playoff form, backed by a strong offense with the likes of Mike Wallace, Hines Ward, and Heath Miller bolstering the passing game.
Coming Into The Game: Ravens
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Record: 13-4
The Ravens, standing at 9th-most in the NFL in sacks allowed this season, will face a tough challenge against the Steelers front seven. Their O-line will need to be playing at the top of their game and avoid committing penalties. They allowed 4 sacks on Sunday against the pass-rush of the Kansas City Chiefs, a caliber of play which won't get it done in this game.
The running game has not been as game-changing this year as it could have been, but there has been some bright sparks. Willis McGahee rushed 10 times for 44 yards against the Chiefs, and Baltimore might look to him as more of a power back against the Steelers defense while utilizing Ray Rice in the screen and short-passing game.
Defensively, the Ravens have been exceptional late-season, overcoming worries about their weak secondary. Their pass-rush has amped up, with OLB Terrell Suggs notching 11 sacks on the season. Ed Reed has only played 10 games this season but has 8 interceptions. Lately, the Ravens have been feasting on turnovers. They forced 5 against the Chiefs last week and look to do something similar against the Steelers.
Joe Flacco had one of the best performances of his career against Kansas City, completing 25 of 34 passes for a completion percentage of 73.5% and a quarterback rating of 115.5. He did have 2 fumbles, however, with one lost. He will need to play a very solid game against the Steelers in order for Baltimore to win this one.
Keys To The Game: Steelers
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Offensive Key to the Game: Don't Become One-Dimensional
The Ravens are coming off of a shut-down of Jamaal Charles, star running back of the Kansas City Chiefs. All credit to Rashard Mendenhall, but he is not nearly the speedy threat that Charles is and he will have a tough task not being shut down by the Baltimore defense. In order for the Steelers to win this game, they need to help out Ben Roethlisberger and establishing the run game is a must. Don't expect to see a lot of big gains in this one, but as long as they are able to churn out consistent yardage Pittsburgh can take a lot of pressure off Big Ben.
Defensive Key to the Game: Cover the Middle of the Field
Pittsburgh will need to find a good matchup against Todd Heap if they want to contain a prolific Ravens offense. Baltimore torched the Chiefs through the seam and with short passes and dump-offs to Ray Rice and the Steelers cannot get caught up in covering Anquan Boldin and Derrick Mason. In order to contain the Baltimore offense, the Steelers need to account for every weapon on the field and that includes Rice on the short pass and Heap on the seam.
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Keys to The Game: Ravens
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Offensive Key to the Game: Keep Joe Flacco Off the Turf
In order to win this match, the O-line is going to have to play a great game and keep the Steelers defense away from Joe Flacco. Dick LeBeau's defense is going to be blitz-happy, and the Ravens need to be prepared for this. Flacco has suffered in previous games when he doesn't get enough time to throw the ball. A solid performance by the offensive linemen would greatly increase Baltimore's chances of winning this game.
Defensive Key to the Game: Force the Turnovers
Baltimore has been riding high on turnovers lately. Against the Chiefs they had 3 interceptions and 2 forced fumbles in a 30-7 victory. Against the Cincinnati Bengals in the last regular-season game they had 5. If they can force Ben Roethlisberger into making some bad throws and turn those bad throws into interceptions, the Ravens can go a long way towards shutting down the Steelers offense. The defense has thrived on crucial takeaways, many by the ballhawk Ed Reed, and they need to perform in this game.
When It Comes Down to It: Who Will Win This Game?
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Baltimore Ravens: 13-4
Pittsburgh Steelers: 12-4
At the end of all the discussion, at the end of all the talent, the coaching, the intangibles, it comes down to who can outplay the other and win the game. No matter how many chances each team has - and each team will have chances to win this football game - only one is going to walk off the turf at Heinz Field with a victory.
This game will be another one of the trademark rivalry, hard-hitting, low-scoring...but the team that seems to be peaking their performance at the right time is the Baltimore Ravens.
They are equipped with all the weapons they need to win on the road, a good, well-balanced offense with prolific weapons, and a defense that has been rolling over opponents.
Pittsburgh will come ready to play, and will put up a tough battle. But in the end, after 60 minutes of football, there will be a winning team, and my money is on the Ravens.
Final Predicted Score: Baltimore Ravens 24, Pittsburgh Steelers 20
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