NFL Playoffs: What Seattle Seahawks Must Do To Beat Chicago Bears

The Seahawks will meet the Packers in the NFC Championship. Before doing this, they have to get by the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. A lot has been said about this. Some even believe that the Seattle Seahawks will beat the Bears. 

To do so, many things could happen. Injuries count. So do mistakes. Yet, for all the uncertain issues we will know about only at game time, some factors seem more likely than not based on games since 2007 between these teams and some of the things that have happened during this season.

Here is my take concerning the most important factors for this game. Each seems more likely than not. Taken cumulatively, the outcome is almost certain. Seahawks 31 - Bears 17.

Outcoach Lovie Smith

Of course, the major difference between the games before this year and this year's games are the coaches. Just look at the game the Bears won 25-19 in 2009 against the Seahawks. So what if the 'Hawks could have won if the kicker had not missed two easy field goals. The fact is that Jim Mora was on tender-hooks from the first few games. Worse, Mora was an emotional downer. Not one interview after that game said anything positive. And Mora blamed players. Making the whole team defensive every game day, and especially after every loss.

Today's Seahawks are totally different. No one can instill a winning attitude more than Pete Carroll. And unlike Mora Carroll stays positive with his players. 

Lovie Smith is similar in this aspect of the game. He does not go after players usually, with some rare exceptions. But his demeanor, unlike Carroll's, suggests defeat even in victory. Rarely smiling, Smith seems too steely for the post-Lombardi era.

Of course, Lovie Smith is also the same, barely winning coach he has been during the past four years. He seems too conservative despite the addition of Mike Martz as offensive coach. And much too stuck in his ways.

Is Carroll better than Smith? The view here is that he is. According to some, Smith was outcoached in the regular season game between the two teams. 

Whatever you can say about these coaches, Jerry Brewer of the Seattle Times has said that Carroll has been involved in more than 270 player transactions since he came to the Seahawks last year. According to an announcer last week, he has made more than 700 personnel changes since he arrived. Working on specialty positioning, Carroll used everything he has learned and then some to work on the players' strengths, and has been upgrading with younger players who are thriving under his systems.

It may be that no NFL coach today is as good as Carroll in fitting his players to the given game day situation. And none plays his personnel to their strengths any better. 

Despite some rare disorganization and occasional mistakes in the New Orleans game, Carroll seems to shine when things get tough. His players play loose, without worry of being singled out like Jim Mora did after bad performances. Of course, winning smooths over mistakes and bad performances. Yet, players believe that Carroll will never blame them, and they are right. Great coaches rarely do this. They take the blame, as often they should.

In the end, the pressure on Smith has to be enormous. One of the highest paid coaches in the game, Smith does not seem to have the same type of personnel acumen as Carroll. And Carroll is by far the looser coach on the sideline. Finally, with the four seasons after the Bears Super Bowl season averaging about .500, and many calls for Lovie Smith's dismissal during the past two seasons, Smith needs even more than this expected win. Should he lose this game, he could be fired. This pressure alone could make for a bad coaching game for Smith.

Gain More Than 300 Yards

If Seattle gains more than 300 yards, they are more likely to win than not. Winning .666 percent of their games this season when gaining more than 300 yards, it makes little difference whether their opponents do better. In fact, the Seahawks won two games in which their opponents gained 518 yards (San Diego Chargers) and 474 yards (playoff game against New Orleans). 

Do Not Kick to Bears' Hester

The first thing one learns about the Bears is that you cannot kick to Devin Hester. Without Hester's return in the first game against the Bears this year, the Seahawks would have won by at least 10 points. Forget everything else. No one should kick to Hester under any circumstance. Take a safety. Do anything. Do not kick to Hester.

That may seem simple, but it is not. How else would Hester score? Sure maybe a lateral or so, but largely because NFL kickers do not kick that many out of bounds especially on kickoffs.

Thus, make certain someone reminds the kicker every time he goes on the field: "Do not kick to Hester." 

Outrun the Bears

While passes will get going, rushing yardage early in this game will be a major key to the outcome. The Bears secondary is better now, with the return of one or more missing starters in the last Bears game, but Hasselbeck seems better protected, more confident again (like the Super Bowl quarterback he is), and ready to let the ball fly accurately and with greater speed in a more direct, less planetary route. 

But the run will key this game. On both sides. Shut down the run, and mistakes will happen, especially if both game plans include the long pass. Both teams are likely to run to establish the big pass far downfield. 

Julius Peppers stands in the way of Seattle establishing the run. So run away from Peppers. As far away as you can. Peppers performs very well under big game circumstances. Stay away from Peppers when you run.

The most misunderstood aspect of the Seahawks running game at the moment is Marshawn Lynch. Unlike what many think, Lynch is an outstanding running back.

In this first season with the Buffalo Bills, Lynch played in 13 games and ran for 1115 yards, averaging more than 21 rushes per game. If he had played in the 7 games he missed over the past four years, he might well have averaged 1,000 yards per season. As it is, he has averaged more than 800 yards per season.

Finally, the Seahawks outrushed the Bears in the last game by fifty yards. This was Marshawn Lynch's first game with the 'Hawks. If anything, the Seattle's running back seems to be hitting his stride.

Scoring is More Important than Running

In seeming contradiction to the plan to run so often, even more important is scoring. Put the Chicago Bears behind and they do not do particularly well. Put them behind by two scores and you probably have won. Not to say that Cutler cannot bring them back. In fact, Cutler's 11 comebacks during his four seasons as a starter in the NFL is a better ratio than Hasselbeck's 12 after his 10 seasons as a starter. Just to say that Cutler has problems under pressure and that his protection remains suspect. 

Perhaps more important and significant is the fact that of the four remaining NFC teams, the Bears and Seahawks are almost identical in the scoring category. They were ninth and tenth in this category in the NFC. 

Keep Jay Cutler Passing Long

Although Hasselbeck has been known to throw ill-advised passes, Jay Cutler loses largely when required to carry the Bears' (and Denver before them) on his back. Of course, this is nothing new. But in this game, Cutler can be shaken up and make mistakes after a few sacks. Get two sacks on him in the first quarter and the game may be over.

Of course, the fact is that Cutler has not played in a post-season game since high school. Will this matter? Will Cutler perform like Kansas City's Matt Cassell, the other quarterback with no experience in the playoffs who started in these playoffs, or like Tom Brady who won his first playoff game on his way to his first Super Bowl win?

If you keep Cutler passing long, he could look like Matt Cassell over sixty minutes. Very few quarterbacks look like winners in their first playoff game.

Conclusion

Terrell Owens believes that the Seattle Seahawks can or will beat Chicago Bears. I say they will. They need to do at least most of the things discussed above. However, if this ends up being another coaching clinic, the Seahawks are likely to win. And this should prove to be yet another example of why a seasoned quarterback is worth far more than one playing in his first playoff game.