2011 NFL Mock Draft: Could A.J. Green Go No. 1 Overall?
The 2010-11 college football season has finally come to a close.
Auburn was able to defeat Oregon in a fantastic BCS National Championship Game. It wasn't the shootout that everyone was expecting, but that didn't make it any less compelling to watch.
But I digress. The 2011 NFL Draft is three months away and we already know most of the heavy hitters in it, but we are still waiting for a couple of names from the BCS title game to make their intentions known.
With the biggest name of all, Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck, going back to school, there is a bit of a logjam at the top.
There are at least four players that could make a case as the No. 1 overall pick, including Georgia wide receiver A.J. Green. Some scouts have described Green as the best wide receiver prospect to come out since Calvin Johnson back in 2007.
He has all the skills that you look for in a receiver. He is big, at 6'4" and 208 pounds. He has great hands and speed, with a great ability to separate from the defender.
Will all that be enough to make him the top pick to the Carolina Panthers?
How much did Auburn's Cam Newton and Nick Fairley help themselves with their performances in the national title game?
Here is how the entire first round of the 2011 NFL Draft will play out.
1. Carolina Panthers: Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
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If you watched the national championship game, the best player on the field was Nick Fairley. He was attacking and just ran through the Oregon offensive line the whole game.
He has speed and strength, which is a rare combination to find in a defensive tackle.
Fairley has been described as Ndamukong Suh 2.0. That’s very high praise for anyone. He can be the anchor for the Panthers defensive line for years to come.
2. Denver Broncos: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
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The Broncos need help in a lot of areas, as evidenced by their 4-12 record in 2010. There has been talk that Champ Bailey is unhappy in Denver and wants out. They will need to rebuild that secondary. Patrick Peterson is the best way to do that.
Peterson is a big, physical corner with the best cover skills of any defensive back in this draft. He can start and be very effective right away.
3. Buffalo Bills: A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
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The Bills might have found something at the quarterback position for the first time since Jim Kelly retired. Ryan Fitzpatrick had a very nice year, throwing for 3,000 yards and 23 touchdowns.
They need to get him some playmakers and A.J. Green is the best offensive playmaker in the draft. He is a big, physical receiver with great speed. I don’t know if he will be the next Calvin Johnson, but when the comparisons are out there, it’s hard to turn away.
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4. Cincinnati Bengals: Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson
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The Bengals were one of the most disappointing teams in football last year. They had significant drop-offs in their running game (129 ypg in 2009, 95.1 in 2010) and in the defense (fourth in total defense in 2009, 15th in 2010).
They will need to build on the defensive line and Da’Quan Bowers is one of the two best defensive linemen in the draft. He is so fast coming off the edges. He can make an instant impact for the Bengals in 2011.
5. Arizona Cardinals: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
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The ripple effect of Andrew Luck going back to school is that Blaine Gabbert is the first quarterback taken, but it’s at No. 5 overall. Not to dismiss Gabbert, who might be one of the fast-rising prospects in this draft.
Arizona is in desperate need of a quarterback. With Larry Fitzgerald on the outside, it shouldn’t be hard to find a productive quarterback for this team.
Gabbert isn’t a finished product. He needs to work on his decision-making and accuracy, but he does have the makeup of a good NFL quarterback.
6. Cleveland Browns: Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
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The defensive MVP from last year’s national title game, Marcell Dareus will help bolster a Cleveland defensive line that ranked 27th against the run in 2010. Dareus has a great first step and tremendous quickness for defensive tackle.
He can take up a lot of room in the middle of that Browns D-line, making it easier for everyone around him to make a play. If that doesn’t work, he has the skill to just break through the line and throw down whomever has the ball.
7. San Francisco 49ers: Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
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There is a caveat to this pick. Expect the 49ers to go with Amukamara as long as new head coach Jim Harbaugh and general manager Trent Baalke trade for a quarterback or sign an already established free-agent quarterback.
The 49ers need help in their secondary, almost as much as they need a quarterback.
Prince Amukamara has all the skills that No. 2 overall pick Patrick Peterson has. He isn’t quite as big as Peterson, but he still has very good size and his production at the cornerback position was second-to-none in 2010.
8. Tennessee Titans: Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon State
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The Titans have been looking for a big body to plug into the middle of their defensive line since Albert Haynesworth took Washington’s money in 2009. Though if the Titans wanted to, they could wait a while and Haynesworth will probably be looking for work soon.
Stephen Paea fills a big need for Jeff Fisher’s defense, which struggled against the run often in 2010. Paea does need to work on his skills as a pass rusher, but given his size he will take up multiple blockers and free up the ends for his teammates.
9. Dallas Cowboys: Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
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Dallas spends a lot of its early draft picks on the flashy name, instead of drafting for need. That will change this year. They need help on the offensive line to keep Tony Romo healthy.
Nate Solder is the best offensive lineman in the draft. He is a very good all-around lineman who blocks well for the run or the pass. The Cowboys' new head coach and former quarterback, Jason Garrett, knows how valuable a good offensive line is to team success.
10. Washington Redskins: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
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By all accounts the Redskins really like Rex Grossman as their quarterback (no, seriously). They need help at all the skill positions moving forward. Their receiving corps is probably the worst in all of football.
Julio Jones never got the credit that he deserved at Alabama. In a predominantly run-oriented offense, he put up over 2,600 receiving yards and 15 touchdowns in his three years with the Crimson Tide.
11. Houston Texans: Von Miller, LB, Texas A&M
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The worst thing that could have happened to Houston was cornerback Janoris Jenkins going back to Florida. He was the third-best cornerback prospect and Houston’s pass defense was abysmal in 2010.
Since they aren’t in a spot to take one of the remaining top cornerbacks here, they will take the best 3-4 linebacker available. New Texans defensive coordinator Wade Phillips runs the 3-4 and they need personnel to do it. Miller is a monster at the outside linebacker position.
12. Minnesota Vikings: Jake Locker, QB, Washington
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Brett Favre retiring leaves Tarvaris Jackson and Joe Webb as the only quarterbacks on the roster. The Vikings need to find their quarterback of the future. Jake Locker probably did more harm than good returning to Washington for his senior season, but he still has the skills and tools that scouts look for.
Locker didn’t have an impressive year in college, but part of that could have been the talent, or lack thereof, around him. He is a tremendous athlete at the quarterback position.
13. Detroit Lions: Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
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Last year the Lions took care of the inside of their defensive line, drafting Ndamukong Suh. This year they will take care of the outside of the defensive line, drafting Robert Quinn.
Quinn didn’t play in 2010 due to a violation of school and NCAA rules, but his stock won’t fall far. He is a great speed rusher off the edge and will make a very nice complement for Suh on that line.
The Lions are building something, and with a couple moves here and there they could contend in 2011.
14. St Louis Rams: Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
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The Rams came so close to making the playoffs in 2010. Sam Bradford looks like a star at the quarterback position after his impressive rookie season. Now the team needs to get him some guys to throw to.
Justin Blackmon was the most productive receiver in college football in 2010. He caught at least one touchdown and had 100 yards receiving in every game. He could walk into St. Louis and be their top receiver his first day there.
15. Miami Dolphins: Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas
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The Chad Henne experiment didn’t go as expected.
He struggled with accuracy and health last year. Head coach Tony Sparano got a contract extension after the team tried, and failed, to sign Jim Harbaugh. He will do everything in his power to get the team turned around quickly.
I don’t really like Ryan Mallett as a prospect, but quarterbacks with rocket arms are always in demand. He needs to work on his decision-making, footwork, accuracy and poise if he wants to be successful in the NFL.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars: Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
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Jacksonville was oh-so-close to making the playoffs last year. David Garrard, while not a quarterback who can win a game for this team, took some positive steps forward.
This team needs help on the defensive line; they ranked 31st in the NFL in sacks. They need to find players who can get consistent pressure on the quarterback, and Ryan Kerrigan can do just that. He isn’t the biggest or the fastest player in the world, but he is constantly going. His motor is non-stop and he will be a big upgrade for the Jaguars' defensive line.
17. New England Patriots (from Oakland): Mike Pouncey, OL, Florida
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The rich just keep getting richer in New England. They have a 14-win regular season and get two first-round draft picks in April.
With the uncertainty and unhappiness surrounding Logan Mankins, the Patriots could draft his replacement.
Mike Pouncey was Florida’s center in 2010 but has played at guard on the offensive line before. He is powerful and will be another solid addition to the Patriots' already strong offensive line.
18. San Diego Chargers: Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
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The Chargers are probably the hardest team to forecast because they were so good on offense and defense in 2010. It’s amazing they missed the playoffs when you look at their overall numbers. They could look to replace the speed rush they lost off the edge when Shawne Merriman was traded.
They did finish the year tied for second in sacks with 47, so they could go any number of ways. I think they go for the best available talent and that’s Adrian Clayborn. He is a great tackler and tremendous pass rusher.
19. New York Giants: Akeem Ayers, LB, UCLA
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Another late-season meltdown for the Giants has them looking for answers going into 2011. Eli Manning has to take much better care of the ball if this team hopes to get to where it thinks it can go.
The Giants could use a little help at the linebacker position, and Akeem Ayers is a pretty good value pick right here. He has good instincts and is a very good tackler coming out of college.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Cameron Jordan, DE, California
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The Bucs made tremendous strides last year. They had a chance to get in the playoffs on the final day of the season. Unfortunately, things didn’t fall their way, but they go into 2011 with a lot of optimism.
One area they need to improve is the pass rush; they ranked 30th in the NFL with only 26 sacks.
Cameron Jordan is a very viable option at this spot. He needs to be a little more consistent as a pass rusher, but he has the physical tools and makeup to do so.
21. Kansas City Chiefs: Drake Nevis, DT, LSU
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The Chiefs got exposed against the Ravens in the playoffs. Matt Cassel had good numbers in 2010, but he still has a lot of work to do to be considered a top-level quarterback.
They need another receiver to go alongside Dwayne Bowe, but with no real viable option here, Drake Nevis is the best choice. He is a fierce competitor who gets a very good jump on the snap.
22. Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College
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Peyton Manning is a free agent as soon as the season is over. Granted, there is about as much chance that Indianapolis lets him get away as there is of Scarlett Johansson showing up on my door step.
The Colts offensive line really struggled in 2010 and will want to upgrade to keep Manning upright. Castonzo is a mountain of a man at 6'7" and 306 pounds. He could be the Colts' most valuable draft pick because he will be protecting Manning’s blind side.
23. Philadelphia Eagles: Justin Houston, LB, Georgia
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The Eagles' biggest weakness in 2010 was their red zone defense. They couldn’t get a stop when they had to, and that was their undoing against Green Bay in the playoffs. They could use help at the linebacker or cornerback position.
One of the fast-rising linebacker prospects in this draft is Justin Houston. He has good size, speed and athleticism. He will be a versatile addition to Andy Reid’s defense.
24. New Orleans Saints: JJ Watt, DE, Wisconsin
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The Saints' season ended in embarrassing disappointment. They got to play the NFC West champion Seattle Seahawks in the first round and had everything set up to at least get to the divisional round.
Unfortunately, their defense really stumbled and they were one-and-done. A big part of the problem, aside from Roman Harper’s inability to cover anything, was lack of a pass rush.
JJ Watt doesn’t have the flash of a guy like Da’Quan Bowers or the speed of guys like Cameron Jordan or Ryan Kerrigan, but he could be the second- or third-best defensive end prospect in this draft.
25. Seattle Seahawks: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
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Matt Hasselbeck had a great game against New Orleans in the playoffs, but he has struggled with injuries for two years. He wasn’t particularly productive when he did play and he is 35 years old.
In sports, loyalty will get you fired and that’s why Pete Carroll would be best served to find Hasselbeck’s replacement.
Cam Newton needs to get acclimated with a pro-style offense and has to work on his accuracy. That said, he is a great athlete and could be a great running quarterback while he works on the quarterback skills.
26. Green Bay Packers: Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
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Green Bay has struggled to find a running game since Ryan Grant went down in the first week of the season. James Starks had the big playoff game against the Eagles, but let’s see a little more from him before we anoint him the savior.
Coming out of Alabama, Mark Ingram is the best running back available in the draft. He wasn’t as explosive this year as he was in 2009 when he won the Heisman Trophy. He did battle some injuries this year, which could have led to diminished production.
27. Chicago Bears: Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin
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The Bears have had issues with their offensive line all year long, particularly in pass protection. Jay Cutler took a beating this year, and if the Bears want to keep him on the field, they need to get some help on the offensive line.
Gabe Carimi will be the answer for the Bears. He is a great blocker and was very impressive going against guys like Ryan Kerrigan and Cameron Heyward—both of whom could be first-round picks.
28. New York Jets: Allen Bailey, DE, Miami
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Ideally, the Jets would like to find a good pass-rushing linebacker to replace Vernon Gholston, who has been a huge bust since being drafted in 2008. With no linebackers worth being taken at this point, they will go for the next best thing, a pass-rushing defensive end.
Allen Bailey has the size and speed to come off the edges and get after the quarterback. He is also good against the run and is an above-average tackler. Rex Ryan knows that to beat New England, you have to start with defense.
29. Baltimore Ravens: Rahim Moore, S, UCLA
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The years go by and the Ravens defense still remains one of the best in the league. It’s a testament to how well they draft and develop their players. This year, look for Ozzie Newsome and company to keep that streak going.
Ed Reed is a great safety, but he has been very fragile of late and is getting older. Drafting Rahim Moore gives them flexibility and if Reed gets hurt, he can step in. Even if Reed doesn’t get hurt, there aren’t many better players than Reed for Moore to learn the safety position from.
30. Pittsburgh Steelers: Tyron Smith, OT, USC
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The Steelers have had offensive line issues for a few years now. They are fortunate to have Ben Roethlisberger, who is one of the best scrambling quarterbacks in all of football.
They still need to address that issue to make sure Big Ben stays healthy and the running game is effective.
Tyron Smith doesn’t have the size of the other offensive linemen in this first round, but he makes up for it with his athleticism and quickness.
31. Atlanta Falcons: Brandon Harris, CB, Miami
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Atlanta’s biggest weakness was exposed in its Monday night game against the Saints three weeks ago. The Falcons secondary is very weak and could very well be their undoing in the playoffs. Drew Brees picked them apart all game long.
This would be an ideal fit for Brandon Harris. He fits a big need for Atlanta and would be going to a legitimate Super Bowl-contending team right out of college. He doesn’t have great speed for the position, but he does have really good cover skills and instincts.
32. New England Patriots: Jeremy Beal, LB, Oklahoma
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Every year New England adds at least one critical defensive player in the draft. With the Patriots taking an offensive lineman with their first first-round pick, they will address that good, young defense.
The defensive line is fine, led by Vince Wilfork. They need to get more depth in the secondary and at the linebacker position. Jeremy Beal has great size for the position. He has been extremely productive in his four years with the Sooners. He can be a really good pass-rushing linebacker.
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