2011 NFL Mock Draft: Complete First Round Projections without Andrew Luck
The 2011 NFL Draft has a whole new landscape without Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck at the top of the board.
The redshirt sophomore decided last week he would be returning to the Farm to finish his degree, and I have a lot of respect for that (and not just because I go to Stanford and want to see the football team continue to succeed while I'm around). Luck chose education over money, something few people would do, which says a lot about his integrity and personality.
But I digress.
With Luck now out of the picture, as well as other players like Florida's Janoris Jenkins, the first round of the 2011 NFL Draft is going to have a whole new look.
So then, let's take a look at how the first round should look like now that we have a more accurate picture of who is staying in school and who is going.
1. Carolina Panthers
1 of 32
Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson
With Andrew Luck now out of the picture, the Carolina Panthers are more or less out of options in the sure-to-be-great quarterbacks section, so it seems almost certain they will elect to focus on defense instead.
The Panthers have a lot of needs on the defensive side of the football, but it's arguable that there is no greater need on that side of the football for Carolina than defensive line.
The Panthers managed some production out of their defensive line, posting 18.5 sacks among all four of them, but 11.5 of those came from defensive end Charles Johnson, which doesn't bode terribly well for the Panthers.
Da'Quan Bowers gives them a replacement for Greg Hardy on the opposite side of the line that can create a pair of defensive ends capable of tearing apart opposing offenses.
In a 4-3 defense, pass rushing defensive ends are the key to everything. Adding Da'Quan Bowers to the already productive Charles Johnson would amp up the Panthers pass rush and provide a player around which their new head coach (most likely San Diego Chargers defensive coordinator Ron Rivera) can build a new defense.
2. Denver Broncos
2 of 32
Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
What the Broncos really need is a nose tackle that can take over for Jamal Williams in their 3-4 scheme, as their run defense was ranked No. 31 in the League this year, and it will only get worse without Williams around.
The problem is, though, there really isn't a player with first-round talent who has the size to play as a 3-4 defensive tackle. Sure, Marcell Dareus and Stephen Paea can command the double team, but can they really take up space and control the line of scrimmage like a player who has 25-50 pounds on them?
The Broncos will have opportunities to address their need at defensive tackle in the later rounds, as guys like Baylor's Phil Taylor and Hampton College's Kendrick Ellis will likely still be on the board.
With that in mind, then, it only makes sense for the Broncos to address their next largest area of concern, which is their aging defensive backfield.
There should be at least one opening in the cornerback position, as Champ Bailey may have played his last snap as a Denver Bronco. So, it only makes sense for the Broncos to chase a true playmaker to fill the spot, and Patrick Peterson is that guy.
Peterson is a phenomenal athlete with a knack for making big plays. He would make an immediate impact in Denver's secondary and would also provide a spark in the return game Denver could really use.
3. Buffalo Bills
3 of 32
Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
If you watched the BCS National Championship game, or really any game the Auburn Tigers played this year, you know how good Nick Fairley is.
At his worst, he stops plays at the line and can be a nuisance in the backfield.
At his best, he is unblockable (see National Championship).
A lot of people will be thinking quarterback for the Buffalo Bills, and they may be right. A lot of people still aren't sold on the abilities of Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Ultimately, though, the smart play would be to address their defense, which had a hard time stopping people and a hard time getting to opposing quarterbacks.
Nick Fairley would go a long way towards fixing that problem, and he would add a definite toughness to a defense that seemed to lack it at times in 2010.
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4. Cincinnati Bengals
4 of 32
A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
The strange thing about the Cincinnati Bengals is they really don't need a whole lot, despite the fact they had a really bad season.
Sure, they could give a look at a quarterback who could be more consistent than Carson Palmer, but the smart bet would be to bring in a young, extremely talented wide receiver like A.J. Green to get him back on track.
With Terrell Owens out the door and Chad Ochocinco less than effective (and potentially out the door as well), the Bengals are really going to be in need of star presence on the outside, and Jerome Simpson isn't going to cut it.
A.J. Green can be that guy.
Watching him play at Georgia has been a lot of fun for me (and for most of you as well I'm sure). He is an extremely physically-gifted athlete who uses superior height, strength and body control to simply out work opposing defenders. He can go over them, cut under them, make one-handed catches, heck, he can do it all.
5. Arizona Cardinals
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Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
For the few of you who are still holding out hope that Derek Anderson, John Skelton or Max Hall will end up being the answer for the Arizona Cardinal, it's time to move on.
It's just painful to watch players like Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Breaston essentially go to waste on account of a bad quarterback situation.
The fact that Andrew Luck is out of the picture shouldn't affect the Cardinals one bit. They need a quarterback, and there is a guy on the board who has great potential to fill that void.
Blaine Gabbert has been silently great at Mizzou. With perfect measureables (6'5", 240 lbs) and the arm and playmaking ability to match, Gabbert could easily take over under center as soon as the Cardinals feel comfortable putting him in (which should be day one).
This one has to happen. The Cardinals cannot afford to continue on without a competent quarterback under center.
6. Cleveland Browns
6 of 32
Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
I have to start out by saying there is a big likelihood the Cleveland Browns will trade down from this spot in the draft. What they need more than anything right now is a wide receiver, but picking Julio Jones at No. 6 is a bit of a reach.
Providing they choose not to move down, though, it seems within the realm of possibility that they pass up a wide receiver for a guy like Robert Quinn.
Coming in just short of 6'5" and 254 pounds, Quinn would be the perfect size for an outside linebacker in a 3-4 scheme, and he has the athleticism and ability to make that transition.
The Cleveland Browns cannot subsist on what they have now for long. Scott Fujita is getting old, and his injury this year killed their pass rush.
Adding a guy like Quinn brings back their pass rush abilities, which could be a key to improving their struggling defense.
7. San Francisco 49ers
7 of 32
Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas
Much like the Arizona Cardinals, the San Francisco 49ers really need a new quarterback. With the Jim Harbaugh regime just beginning, changes are going to have to happen, and that has to start with a change from Troy and Alex Smith, because neither of them are going to get it done.
The decision here for Harbaugh is going to end up being between Jake Locker and Ryan Mallett, which is tough, but it seems more likely that he'll stick with Mallett, and I'll tell you why:
Arm strength.
Sure, there are a couple of other little things that put Mallet above Locker (at least in my mind), but the real thing is Harbaugh is going to want a guy who can sling it down the field, someone who is capable of making the big plays his quarterback prodigy Andrew Luck could at Stanford and Mallett has that ability.
8. Tennessee Titans
8 of 32
Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
The resemblance to Vince Young is just too good to pass up.
...
You didn't think I was going to leave it at that, did you?
Well, despite the fact that Cam Newton did not look great in what should be his final college football game, there is no doubt he is a physically-gifted guy. With the size and strength to bowl through defenders, Newton is deadly on the run.
Surprisingly, though, Newton is also capable of being a very good passer. He has shown great patience in the pocket and behind the line of scrimmage, an excellent ability to extend plays with his feet and surprising accuracy to go with his cannon of an arm.
Without Vince Young in the lineup, the Titans are left with Kerry Collins and Rusty Smith at the quarterback position, and while it is possible for Kerry Collins to have another good year like he did three years ago as the starting quarterback in Tennessee, it is much more likely they will both struggle.
Tennessee would be best served by going for a quarterback, and judging their tastes on the Vince Young pick, Cam Newton seems to fit their profile perfectly.
9. Dallas Cowboys
9 of 32
Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
If there is one thing the Dallas Cowboys need, it's a new head coach.
Just kidding (well, not really, because they do, but that's not what we're talking about here, is it?). The Dallas Cowboys could really use a real difference maker in the defensive backfield right now.
Terence Newman turns 33 before the beginning of next season and Mike Jenkins has never really been a big production cornerback in any of his three years in the League, so taking Prince Amukamara at No. 9 seems to make a whole lot of sense.
Despite the fact that Amukamara has shown weakness in his final season in college football (see Oklahoma State game), he is about as close to being a shutdown corner as any defensive back is coming out of college.
He has good size for a cornerback, great speed and awareness and seems simply to always be there. There should be little doubt for Dallas here. Amukamara is their man.
10. Washington Redskins
10 of 32
Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
It's easy for the Redskins and their fans to point fingers at Donovan McNabb for the breakdown in their passing game this year, because he honestly did make some bad throws throughout the season.
That having been said, though, not all of the blame can fall on the shoulders of the former Philadelphia Eagle.
Donovan McNabb made it clear to everyone he was capable of doing good things in Philadelphia, so what is keeping him from succeeding in Washington?
Talent.
I'm not talking about offensive line talent or even running back talent (although the Redskins could stand to work on that one as well). I'm talking about wide receiver talent.
Santana Moss cannot carry the full load for the Redskins. They need a true talent on the outside that can play off Chris Cooley's middle threat, and Julio Jones fits right into that job description.
Jones is a big, physical guy who is just as capable of making great catches as he is of grabbing big yardage after the catch. He just seems like the right guy to help get Donovan McNabb (and the Redskins' offense) back on track.
11. Houston Texans
11 of 32
Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
This is such a hard pick to make, because there are players the Texans want, but they're either already off the board or way too far down it to be taken at No. 11.
Therefore, before getting into this explanation, let's make this clear: the Texans will trade up or down in this draft.
What they really need is another cornerback to line up across from last year's first-round pick Kareem Jackson, but Prince Amukamara and Patrick Peterson will already be gone at this point. So, either the Texans trade up and snag Amukamara (because there's no way they're getting Peterson), or they trade down for a guy like Brandon Harris or Ras-I Dowling.
In the event that doesn't happen, though, there is certainly potential for the Texans to look at their defensive line.
Despite all of the injuries they suffered this year, Houston still managed to get great production out of the unit, but replacing Shaun Cody with a guy like Dareus, who can stuff the run and break into the backfield, would add a whole new dynamic to what would become an extremely dominant line featuring Amobi Okoye and Mario Williams.
Again, though, it seems most logical that the Texans are moving this pick, so be on the lookout.
12. Minnesota Vikings
12 of 32
Jake Locker, QB, Washington
There is no possible way that the Vikings can continue to overlook the quarterback position year after year. There's no more bringing Brett Favre back, Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin aren't going to throw the ball to themselves and I remain convinced that Joe Webb is not their plan for the future.
Enter Jake Locker.
Locker has all of the intangibles you want in a quarterback, but a rough year at Washington has really sunk his draft stock. He has a big upside, as we don't really know what he could do with a talented team around him, but his struggles this year also suggest he could end up being a big draft bust.
Either way, though, the Vikings cannot afford to skip over meeting their biggest need once again this year. They will not have success at all in 2011 if they don't have someone under center who can take control of the game.
13. Detroit Lions
13 of 32
Adrian Clayborn, DE/DT, Iowa
The Lions are going to be faced with a tough pick here.
With Janoris Jenkins remaining at Florida for another year and Patrick Peterson and Prince Amukamara both off the board, the Lions would be mistaken to grab a defensive back at this point in the draft.
So then, with defensive back taking a backseat as far as needs to address go, the next logical place for the Lions to look would be at their defensive ends, where they could really use a disruptive presence to pair with last year's No. 1 overall pick Ndamukong Suh.
14. St. Louis Rams
14 of 32
Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon State
With A.J. Green and Julio Jones both off the board at this point, the Rams may be looking to trade down, because their biggest need is probably wide receiver, and Jonathan Baldwin would be a bit of a reach in the No. 14 spot.
Providing they don't trade down, though, their next logical move would be defensive tackle, and there is no better player to look to at this point in the draft than Stephen Paea.
Paea made headlines last year as an internet sensation on account of a YouTube video recording him nearly breaking the NFL Combine bench press record in the Oregon State training room.
He is a physical monster who is more than capable of both controlling the line of scrimmage and splitting the double team to get after the quarterback.
Adding Paea would give the Rams one of the best 4-3 defensive fronts in the League, and it will go a long way towards helping out a less-than-excellent St. Louis secondary.
15. Miami Dolphins
15 of 32
Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
With Ricky Williams likely out the door and Ronnie Brown under performing, the Dolphins need a running back more than anything.
Mark Ingram is by no means a lock to be a successful NFL running back, but I don't think the Dolphins have any options. Behind Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, the Dolphins don't have anyone, and running back is going to be a difficult need to address in free agency.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars
16 of 32
Cameron Jordan, DE, Cal
The Jacksonville Jaguars have been trying desperately to fix their defensive line, and thus far, they have been failing.
After drafting four defensive linemen with their first four picks in last years draft, it's hard to think they will return to the same spot, but they really do need to get something done there.
Adding Cameron Jordan would make an immediate impact for the Jaguars. With Aaron Kampmann possibly gone next year, the Jaguars are going to need a player who can generate pass rush, and Jordan is more than capable of that.
He's fast and physical off the line, and some of the only real knocks against him are that he can get too focused on getting after the quarterback.
That's a mentality I wouldn't mind having on my team.
17. New England Patriots (from Oakland)
17 of 32
Ryan Kerrigan, DE/OLB, Purdue
When it comes to this pick, it is really going to be a matter of personal preference.
With guys like Von Miller, Akeem Ayers and Justin Houston still on the board (among many others), the Patriots could go in a lot of directions in addressing their need for a pass rushing outside linebacker.
Ultimately, though, there are a few things that put Ryan Kerrigan above the rest.
For one, as a defensive end at Purdue, he'll have the ability to play down on the field as well as standing up, and his ability to break off blocks and move into the backfield is a little more developed than some of the other prospects.
Secondly, Kerrigan is a man of high character. He's a hard worker who puts the team first, which means he would fit right into Bill Belichick's system of no-nonsense.
Von Miller would be runner up for this pick, but I'd stick with Kerrigan.
18. San Diego Chargers
18 of 32
Cameron Heyward, DE/DT, Ohio State
The San Diego Chargers have a couple of needs they could address here: outside linebacker, safety and cornerback to name a few.
The biggest need, though, is probably the defensive end position, and it's really a matter of who fits best in Greg Manuksy's defense: J.J. Watt, Cameron Heyward or Allen Bailey.
The Chargers need a big guy who has proven he is capable of controlling and moving the line of scrimmage, getting into the backfield and pursuing runners from sideline-to-sideline, and only one of the three really has all that right now, and that's Cameron Heyward.
Heyward proven his dominance in the Allstate Sugar Bowl this year, absolutely shredding the offensive line of Arkansas and doing a great job of getting to Ryan Mallett.
Heyward would be an immediate improvement over current starter Jacques Cesaire, who is a rotational guy at best.
19. New York Giants
19 of 32
Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M
The Giants don't really need much, so their immediate concern is strengthening depth. Thus we have Von Miller.
With Kieth Bulluck likely headed for retirement within the next year or so, the Giants are going to be thin at linebacker, which makes the Von Miller pick perfect. It gives him a year or so to develop and will allow him to take over when the time is right.
The Giants could go with Akeem Ayers instead, as Ayers is more than certainly the better coverage linebacker between the two, but New York likes to attack the line of scrimmage on defense, which makes Von Miller's pass rush ability indispensable.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
20 of 32
Allen Bailey, DE, Miami (FL)
The Buccaneers spent their first two draft picks last year addressing the interior of their defensive line, and it ended up working out quite well for them.
With that out of the way, then, it's time for them to turn to edge rushers, which leaves them with a decision here. Of the top defensive ends left on the board, the best viable options for their 4-3 system are J.J. Watt and Allen Bailey.
Ultimately, though, Allen Bailey seems like the better fit. He is probably the most physically-gifted player in the draft this year and the fact he is a raw player shouldn't deter the Bucs from taking advantage of that.
Aside from that, J.J. Watt is currently sitting at around 295 pounds, which puts him a bit out of the range of a 4-3 defensive end.
21. Kansas City Chiefs
21 of 32
J.J. Watt, DE/DT, Wisconsin
Kansas City appears to have figured out its offense. Despite the loss of offensive coordinator Charlie Weis, it really appears as though Matt Cassel and Dwayne Bowe are clicking in the passing game, and Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles are really getting it done on the ground.
With that in mind, the next logical step for them would be to address the defense, and that has to start with the defensive line.
Tyson Jackson and Glenn Dorsey have turned out to essentially be busts, whether most people are ready to admit it or not, so defensive end is really the place to go.
J.J. Watt would feel right at home in the 3-4 front of the Chiefs. At 6'6", 295 pounds, Watt has great size, and he has the strength to match. He has shown he is perfectly capable of matching up against great defensive lines in the Big Ten and is poised to make an immediate impact in the NFL.
22. Indianapolis Colts
22 of 32
Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
The Colts are in the midst of retooling their offensive line and picking a star tackle like Nate Solder would make a big headway in accomplishing that goal.
Solder has the ideal measurables for a star tackle and has proven before he is capable of taking on star pass rushers with general ease.
He would easily be able to come into the starting lineup on day one and help keep Peyton Manning upright (the big key to keeping the Colts offense cranking).
23. Philadelphia Eagles
23 of 32
Brandon Harris, CB, Miami (FL)
With Asante Samuel's career coming to an end sometime soon, the Philadelphia Eagles need to start prepping someone to take over for him when his retirement comes.
With Prince Amukamara and Patrick Peterson off the board, the next candidate in line for that job would be Miami cornerback Brandon Harris.
Harris is a great coverage player who, despite the struggles of the Hurricanes this year, has maintained a high level of play.
Harris would fill the only real hole on the Eagles that needs to be addressed immediately.
24. New Orleans Saints
24 of 32
Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA
After Scott Fujita was lured away in free agency to the Cleveland Browns, the New Orleans Saints found themselves with a big hole at outside linebacker—a hole which they have yet to fill.
Considering the Saints seem to be an offense oriented around interceptions and forced fumbles, Akeem Ayers seems like the right fit.
He is a decent pass rusher, but more than that, he is the best coverage linebacker in the draft and will make an immediate impact in that regard.
Ayers to the Saints seems almost too good not to happen.
25. Seattle Seahawks
25 of 32
Mike Pouncey, OL, Florida
A big reason why the Seattle Seahawks have struggled to win games is their lack of running game.
While a lot of people blame Marshawn Lynch, Justin Forsett and Leon Washington, it's also totally fair to point fingers at the offensive line.
This is a unit that has seen more position shuffling in the last few years than any offensive line should undergo.
The Seahawks recognized that and started working on it last year by drafting Russell Okung, but it's time to couple that with a great inside presence.
Enter Mike Pouncey.
As the top rated center in the draft this year, Pouncey is a guy who has more than proven his worth. He would fit right into the middle of the Seahawks offensive line on day one and would go a long way towards establishing some consistency in the unit.
26. Green Bay Packers
26 of 32
Tyron Smith, OT, USC
It may be a bit impulsive, but the right move for the Green Bay Packers would be to grab an offensive lineman in the first round, especially since there will still be decent cornerback talent in the second round for them to grab.
In any case, the offensive line is a must-address for the Green Bay Packers, because if there's anything holding them back, it's the unfortunate string of concussions Aaron Rodgers suffered this season.
There is usually a simple formula when it comes to football games: Keeping your QB safe = Keeping your offense going.
The Packers need to follow this formula and keep Aaron Rodgers off his back, because another series of concussions could cost him a full season or worse.
27. Chicago Bears
27 of 32
Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin
You remember that formula I laid out for the Green Bay Packers, right?
(I'm hoping so, it was only one slide ago)
Well, the Chicago Bears would do well to hold true to that as well.
Jay Cutler has been doing great things for the Bears this season, but he could do a whole lot more if he didn't end up on the ground three-plus times per game.
Carimi is a big, physical guy who comes from the Wisconsin Badgers, who know that games are won or lost in the trenches, so you know he comes to play.
Again, drafting Gabe Carimi means keeping Jay Cutler upright more often, which means more success on offense, which then means more team success.
Simple, right?
28. New York Jets
28 of 32
Justin Houston, OLB, Georgia
The more I think about this, the more it makes sense.
The Jets could really use a defensive end, considering the age and skill of their current defensive ends, which means they could go after Illinois' Corey Liuget (At 6'3", 300 pounds, he could easily make the transition to 3-4 defensive end, especially as a run stopper).
However, the selection of Justin Houston, believe it or not, makes more sense.
You see, the Jets have a great group of linebackers, but it really isn't set up to last for very long.
Jason Taylor is on the verge of retirement, Calvin Pace is getting old (and dropping in productivity) and Bryan Thomas is getting old and unproductive, which leaves only Jamaal Westerman on their roster.
Houston gives them depth security in the short term, and a developing pass rushing monster in the long term.
Seems like a winner to me.
29. Baltimore Ravens
29 of 32
Aaron Williams, CB, Texas
The Baltimore Ravens could go in a number of directions with this pick,
There's the possibility the Ravens will look for a wide receiver, as Derrick Mason will likely retire at the end of this year, and the future of T.J. Houshmandzadeh is uncertain.
They could also look at picking up a defensive lineman to line up next to Haloti Ngata to create an even scarier defensive front.
They could also take a look at safety with Ed Reed starting to show signs of age with the constant injury concerns.
In the end, though, the Ravens could really use a star cornerback to round out their defense for the coming year.
With Amukamara, Peterson and Harris all off the board, the decision comes down to Ras-I Dowling, Aaron Williams and Jimmy Smith, all three of which could easily go. Ultimately, though, Aaron Williams seems like the best choice.
For one, he goes up against better competition than Dowling or Smith, which makes me a little more confident about his athletic ability.
Williams is also the better-rounded corner and the better athlete. He is the kind of guy who can start playing quickly and who can make an impact while continuing to develop
30. Pittsburgh Steelers
30 of 32
Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College
This is another one of those picks that could go in a lot of different directions, since the Pittsburgh Steelers are looking for depth in a couple of positions.
Ultimately, though, Castonzo seems like the right man for the job.
The Steelers are currently running with the 35-year-old Flozell Adams at right tackle, who has been battling injury issues and who, well, will not be in the League much longer.
Castonzo could come in and replace him relatively quickly, which would afford Ben Roethlisberger a bit more protection than he is currently getting, which (as if I haven't hit on it enough) follows along with the "Green Bay Packers Rule" (Sounds like a good name for it to me, right?).
31. Atlanta Falcons
31 of 32
Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois
This is one of those moments in the draft where a team is faced with a choice: to trade down or not to trade down (that is the question).
Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to select the best available talent on the board.
Or to take arms against the lack of necessary talent by trading out of the first round.
(Ok, so my Shakespeare isn't so good)
Seriously, though, this is one of those occasions. The Falcons could very well trade out of the first round here. In the event they don't, though, the best available talent on the board has to be Corey Liuget, the breakout defensive tackle from Illinois.
He won't be blowing up the backfield like Ndamukong Suh, but he will control the line of scrimmage well, and he will certainly make some plays in the backfield.
Liuget would have a good shot at replacing Corey Peters, the Falcons third-round pick in the 2010 draft.
32. New England Patriots
32 of 32
Marvin Austin, DT, North Carolina
The New England Patriots have an interesting way of running their defensive line.
Instead of running big defensive ends who are capable of breaking into the backfield, they choose to play space eaters all along their line, which makes Marvin Austin a great choice for them.
With the defensive end position filled by low-round draft picks who struggle without the help of Vince Wilfork, Marvin Austin would easily start from day one.
At 6'3", 303 pounds, Austin is the proper size for a Patriot defensive lineman and would go a long way towards helping out both their run defense and their pass rush (by ideally demanding a double team on occasion).
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