NFL Playoff Predictions: 10 Reasons the Pats Will Stomp the New York Jets
Ever since Rex Ryan vowed never to kiss Bill Belichick’s rings, the football world has waited for this matchup on this stage.
The Patriots come in with more momentum than any playoff team in recent memory. That includes the 2007 team that staved off onslaughts against their perfect record before succumbing to the Giants in the Super Bowl.
For their part, the Jets rediscovered their swagger in Indianapolis after an uneven second half to the season.
But it won’t be enough, or even close. The New England Patriots will stomp the New York Jets because…
10. Because Rex Ryan Talks Too Much
1 of 10
Rex Ryan provided his latest installment of bulletin board material when he insulted Tom Brady while complimenting Peyton Manning’s work habits.
“I know Brady thinks he [studies film like Manning],” the braggadocios coach proclaimed. “I think there’s a little more help from Belichick with Brady than there is with Peyton Manning.”
Brady didn’t take the bait, which is par for the course for any high-ranking official in the Republic of Belichickia.
You can bet the Patriots will be similarly mum all week. They’ll let the Jets win the back pages, but they’ll focus on winning the game.
The last time they did that, they pasted the Jets 45-3 in early December.
After that game, Brady indulged himself, at least a little. “We really take after our coach,” he told reporters. “When you win, say little. When you lose, say less.”
9. Because The Patriots Just Beat Them 45-3
2 of 10
Yes, that December game was a unique confluence of circumstances. Yes, it was “one of those days,” for both teams. No, the Patriots aren’t that good and the Jets aren’t that bad.
But that doesn’t explain away a 42-point gap. This wasn’t a 31-10 blowout. It was a 45 – 3 blowout.
8. Because BenJarvus Green-Ellis Became One of The League's Better Runners
3 of 10
After a few years of non-descript runners, the Patriots finally found their horse in BenJarvus Green-Ellis. The Lawfirm was the only AFC East running back to top 1,000 yards, and he did it without fumbling once.
His 4.4 yards per carry average ranked just 16th in the league, but that figure understates his value. He lacks breakaway speed, which keeps his yards per carry average down, but his no-frills, straight-ahead style consistently generates first downs and puts his team in manageable situations.
A statistic that captures Green-Ellis’s value is the DVOA metric of FooballOutsiders.com, which evaluates players on a per play basis according to game situation and opponent. By that measure, Green-Ellis was the third best back in the league.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
7. Because The Patriots Defense Has Improved
4 of 10
New England is generally thought to have a middle-of-the-pack defense, but the defense has improved vastly in the season’s second half.
In the first eight games, the Patriots allowed an average of 23.5 points and forced 14 turnovers. In the last eight games, those figures became 15.6 points and 24 turnovers.
It’s that simple: This young defense that has gone from being pretty bad to pretty good.
6. Because Tom Brady Does Not Throw Interceptions
5 of 10
You will hear this stat a lot in the coming week: Tom Brady has not thrown a pick in 11 games. He has thrown 355 consecutive passes since his last pick, breaking Bernie Kosar’s NFL record.
(Interestingly, Kosar was the quarterback Belichick kicked to the curb when he took over the Browns in his first coaching stint. In the public perception, he never recovered from the unpopular move.)
Since Brady’s last interception, there have been 331 interceptions thrown in the NFL, including interceptions by 60 different quarterbacks. The Patriots defense has 18 interceptions during this span.
Brady finished the year with four picks in 492 attempts, good for a rate of .8 percent, the lowest rate in NFL history for quarterbacks with a minimum of 250 attempts. By comparison, Mark Sanchez’s rate was 2.6, which ranked 15th in the league.
Brady’s ability to avoid mistakes is even more impressive considering he ranks fifth in the league in yards per attempt with 7.9 (Sanchez finished at 6.5).
Largely because of Brady, the Patriots broke the NFL record for fewest turnovers, with 10.
5. Because Bill Belichick Is Still Bill Belichick
6 of 10
All those Bill Simmons-generated rumors about Belichick’s “losing a few miles per hour off the fastball?” They’ve been greatly exaggerated. He’s still the greatest coach of this generation and possibly ever.
As Patriots coach, he’s lost just one playoff home game. He’s at his best when given two weeks to prepare.
Much has been made in New York of the 3-1 playoff record of the Ryan/Sanchez regime. That’s all well and good, but it doesn’t quite stack up to the 14-4 record of the Belichick/Brady Patriots.
4. Because The Jets Won't Exploit The Patriots Poor Pass Defense
7 of 10
The Patriots have one serious vulnerability: pass defense. New England ranked 9th-worst in the league in allowing 6.4 yards per pass attempt.
Unfortunately for the Jets, they probably won’t take advantage of it. Despite the front office’s efforts to stockpile talented receivers, the Jets are just 21st in net yards per attempt, and Mark Sanchez is the league’s 27th rated quarterback.
Sanchez had two solid performances toward the end of the year against the good pass defenses of Pittsburgh and Chicago. But on Saturday, aside from his final drive heroics, Sanchez played poorly (62.4 rat.) against Indianapolis’s mediocre pass defense.
3. Because The Patriots Offense Bows To No Defense
8 of 10
Obviously, the Jets calling card is their defense: Gang Green ranks fifth in the league in scoring defense, and third in yards per play.
But the Patriots have made a habit of beating up on good defenses. This year, they’ve played seven games against opponents with a top 10 scoring defense. They’ve gone 6-1 during those games, averaging 30.1 points per game.
To put this in perspective, the rest of the NFL averages 16.4 points against top 10 defenses.
2. Because The Patriots Rely on Multiple Receivers, Mitigating Darrelle Revis
9 of 10
One reason the Jets had success against the Colts last week was because they were able to put Revis on Reggie Wayne, by far the Colts most accomplished receiver.
But ever since the Patriots parted way with Randy Moss, they’ve had a more malleable offense in which Brady has a multiplicity of options and isn’t overly reliant on one guy.
This was borne out in the December game between the two teams, when the Patriots leading receiver in terms of yards was running back Danny Woodhead.
The flexibility of the Patriots offense will better equip Brady to exploit holes in the Jets defense created by Rex Ryan’s aggressive blitzes.
1. Because This Year's Patriots Are Better Than The 2007 Version
10 of 10
On the whole, the 2007 Pats were the greatest regular season team ever. But at this point in the season, they were a diminished version of their first half selves. The opposite is true of the 2010 Patriots.
The 2007 Pats won their first eight games by an average of 25.5 points, but their margin of victory slipped to 13.9 points in their last eight games.
The 2010 Pats, by contrast, won 6 of their 8 games by an average of 12.5 points per game, but have since run the table with an average margin of victory of 21.8.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
.jpg?w=600 "Post-June 1 Trade Candidates ☎️")
.JPG?w=600 "TO Talks Cowboys Relationship")
.jpg?w=600 "Taylor Heinicke Retiring")
.jpg?w=600 "49ers OC Hypes Mike Evans 🤩")