Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: Ravens Will Run through Steel Curtain

So, it’s divisional week of the 2010 NFL playoffs.  Looking back on last week, let’s just say that two of my picks didn’t come true.  Ah, well.  That’s not going to deter me from making more picks for the upcoming games!  This week has a big rivalry game as two teams from the same division meet.  This is the analysis of the Baltimore Ravens versus the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Record

Now, I’ve already given my opinion on the Ravens’ record, so let’s just focus on that of the Steelers for now.  The Steelers, like the Ravens, finished the season with a 12-4 record.  Since this matchup is expected to be extremely close, let’s analyze the wins.

Of the 12 wins, only two came against playoff teams, including the Ravens (a 13-10 squeaker).  Oppositely, regarding the losses, all four came against playoff teams (Saints, Ravens, Patriots and Jets).  Still, I have to give the Steelers credit, because despite four bad losses, they still had six road wins (compared to Baltimore’s five).  I know they have home-field advantage, but it’s still a significant stat.

Yet, one of the Ravens’ road wins came at Heinz Field.  Granted, the Steelers didn’t have Ben Roethlisberger for that game, but it’s still a significant win for the Ravens.  They just blew out the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium, considered by many to be one of the more difficult stadiums for a road team, and they’re ready to drop the hammer again at Heinz Field.

Edge: Ravens

Quarterback

Once again, Joe Flacco proved that he is a rising star with Super Bowl potential in his rout of the Chiefs, going 25-of-34 for 265 yards and two touchdowns.  That was good enough for an amazing passer rating of 115.4.  This coming weekend, he will meet his match in two-time Super Bowl champ Ben Roethlisberger.

Now, while Flacco may have momentum on his side, Roethlisberger has the cherished home-field advantage.  Despite being on suspension for the first four weeks of the season, Roethlisberger still managed to put up great numbers.  He threw for 3,200 yards and 17 touchdowns, with a passer rating of 97.  He only threw five interceptions.  I know that’s low since he missed four games, but it still proves how accurate an arm Roethlisberger has.

But also, I’d like to take a look at just what has gone on when these two quarterbacks have faced each other.  Overall, Ben Roethlisberger is 8-2 against the Ravens, while the young Flacco is 2-5 against Pittsburgh, including a loss in the 2008 AFC Championship Game.

Still, we need to consider which quarterback is under more pressure.  Is it the young gunslinger out to prove himself against a team that knows him like a book, or the veteran who already has two rings and is playing at home?  In my opinion, this will be a grudge match for the ages decided by defense, so the passing game might as well be a nonfactor.

Edge: Even

Running Game

If there’s one place the Ravens surely have an advantage against the Steelers, it’s the running game.  They have a good two-man team in Ray Rice and Willis McGahee, as evidenced by their win over the Chiefs on Sunday when they combined for a total of 153 yards and two touchdowns, both on the ground and through the air.

The Steelers’ rushing offense, despite being ranked slightly higher (11^th to Baltimore’s 14^th), isn’t as diverse.  The team’s only true threat on the ground is Rashard Mendenhall, and while his numbers are respectable, the lack of a true power back works against him.  Let’s take a look at his numbers.

Overall, Mendenhall improved upon his 2009 season.  He ran for 1,273 yards (up from 1,108) and 13 touchdowns (seven in 2009), but his yards per carry dropped.  In 2009, his YPC was a respectable 4.6, while this season, it dropped to 3.9, and I’m sorry, but that just won’t cut it against a punishing Baltimore defense. 

I know that Ray Rice had a bit of an off year too, but he at least had Willis McGahee to help carry the load.  Mendenhall had Isaac Redman, who didn’t even rush for one touchdown all season.  Thus, despite having the best defense against the run, the Steelers will have a hard time against two effective backs.

Edge: Ravens.

Passing Offense

Now, when I previewed the Ravens-Chiefs game last week, I mentioned that the Ravens had a distinct advantage because of all their options at the position.  The Steelers also have many receiving options, but are they enough to be better than those of Baltimore?  Time to analyze!

The Pittsburgh receiving corps is led by 13-year veteran Hines Ward, who, despite his age, turned in a fine season with 59 receptions for 755 yards and five touchdowns.  Those numbers are down considering he had over 1,000 yards each of the previous two seasons, but we can’t forget that he didn’t have Roethlisberger throwing to him for four weeks.

After Santonio Holmes was traded to the Jets, the team was left with a void at the No. 2 receiver slot.  Those worries were put to rest as second-year wideout Mike Wallace stepped in and had a season that was simply amazing.  The former Ole Miss Rebel made 60 catches for an astounding 1,257 yards and ten touchdowns.  That’s an average of 21 yards per catch!  Needless to say, Wallace is well on his way to becoming a major deep threat that will be a pest to even the best defenses.

Even Antwaan Randle El, despite having an off season in his return to the Steel City, is still a legitimate possession receiver who knows how to get open and make blocks.  The same can be said about tight end Heath Miller.

Long story short, while the Ravens might have more big names on their receiving squad, this Steelers corps has been playing together for a long time and, as they say about most relationships, communication is key, and these Steelers have a lot of it.

Edge: Steelers

Defense

We all know what the Ravens defense can do, so let’s take a look at a Pittsburgh defense that finished second in the NFL.

Head coach Mike Tomlin employs a 3-4 defense, headlined up front by nose tackle Casey Hampton.  Helping Hampton on the line are defensive ends Ziggy Hood and Brett Keisel.  The front line of Pittsburgh isn’t overwhelmingly good, but they did a good enough job creating pressure for opposing quarterbacks to throw 21 interceptions.

At linebacker, the Steelers have four men who I would be afraid to face even if I was the best quarterback or receiver ever and couldn’t feel any pain.  Lamar Woodley, Lawrence Timmons, James Farrior and James Harrison are not only amazing coverage linebackers, but also amazing pass rushers, as these four gentlemen combined for 29 of the team’s league-leading 48 sacks.

In the secondary, the team is led by veteran safety Troy Polamalu.  This man continues to be a pest for receivers, as he had another amazing season, picking off seven passes despite missing two weeks with an injury.  Fellow safety Ryan Clark gives the team a solid one-two punch at the position, as he delivers devastating tackles while Polamalu goes for the ball.  Ike Taylor and Bryant McFadden are equally pesky at the corner positions, delivering punishing hits that jar the ball loose.

Still, we all know what the Ravens defense can do.  Those men have been playing together for a long time and have a lot of momentum coming into the game.  The Steelers might have home-field advantage, but the Ravens are out to make a statement.  This game is going to be decided by the defense, and I expect a fight to the finish.

Edge: Even

All in all, I’m expecting this game to be the closest one in the entire postseason.  Time for the score prediction!

Prediction: Ravens 17, Steelers 14