NFL Playoff Predictions 2011: 10 Shockers To Watch For in Round 2
NFL playoff predictions in Round 2 are a bit easier to create this time around. Each of the four games are rematches from the 2010 regular season and both AFC games are the third time the teams will face each other this season.
Still, you never know quite how things will shake up in the postseason, so no matter what happened in earlier weeks or months, no prediction is a safe bet.
Here are 10 bold predictions for the Divisional Round.
No. 10: The Falcons Offense Will Struggle at Home
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The Falcons have by far the best wide receiver/tight end tandum remaining in the postseason, perhaps in all of football. Roddy White is likely all-pro and Tony Gonzalez is a future Hall of Famer.
Just as important, they have Matt Ryan, who is emerging as one of the best quarterbacks in the NFC, and an excellent runner in Michael Turner.
But they actually finished the season in the middle of the pack in total offense: 16th in the NFL. And against the Saints (who would had their own problems the following two weeks), the Falcons managed just one offensive score.
And although Turner had a good game against the Packers back in Week 12, Ryan couldn't get the ball downfield in a game that the Packers might have won had it not been for poor special teams at the end.
Green Bay's defense is the best in the NFC and will be able to put pressure on Ryan. And with Charles Woodson on White, the pressure will be on Michael Jenkins and Harry Douglas to make plays.
The Falcons certainly can still win the game, and Ryan may lead a late, game-winning drive, but there will be plenty of three-and-outs along the way.
No. 9: Someone (Chicago's Defense) Will Tackle Marshawn Lynch
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Marshawn Lynch emerged as something of a folk hero (at least in the Pacific Northwest) last weekend with his ridiculous 67-yard game-sealing touchdown run over the Saints.
But the Bears will wrap up a little bit better than New Orleans did at Qwest Field.
Not only that, but Rod Marinelli and Lovie Smith's 11 will completely contain Lynch on a cold, perhaps snowy Soldier Field.
Only the Steelers turned out a better rushing defense in 2010, and against the two best runners in the NFC (Michael Vick and Adrian Peterson), neither man broke free for more than 20 yards on a single carry.
Lynch will carry the ball 20 times in an attempt to slow down Julius Peppers and the Bears' pass rush. But he'll be fortunate to have half as many yards for the entire game as he had on that touchdown scamper against New Orleans.
No. 8: Jay Cutler Throws 50 Passes
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In the Mike Martz era, Jay Cutler has never thrown more than 40 passes in a single game. In fact, he averages just over 30 attempts per (full) game this season.
But the blueprint that Drew Brees and Sean Payton gave the Bears last week will no doubt have an impact on Mike Martz's playcalling.
Brees completed 39-of-60 passes last week against the Seahawks. And although they lost the game, their offense was very effective, scoring 36 points.
Although there has been a concerted effort to run the ball more in Chicago (like 27 attempts in the win over the Jets), Martz knows that the Seahawks have holes in their pass defense, especially their pass rush.
Cutler's arm and passes over the middle to Greg Olsen give the Bears the best chance to win.
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No. 7: Ray Rice Will Top 100 Yards against Pittsburgh
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The 2010 Steelers run defense is arguably one of the best the NFL has seen in the past decade.
They allowed only 62.8 yards per game on the ground—a remarkable figure considering that the No. 2 run defense in the NFL, Chicago, surrendered over 90 yards per game.
Against some of the NFL's best backs this year, the Steelers have been stifling.
Michael Turner (42 yards), Chris Johnson (34 yards) and Darren McFadden (14 yards) ran for almost nothing.
And in two games against the Ravens, Ray Rice produced 20 and 32 yards on the ground. But this time around, the increasing threat of Joe Flacco will open things up for Rice on the ground.
Another hard-fought, narrow game will let the Ravens stick with the run, and Rice will see a few creases to break 100 yards against the Steelers for the first time all season.
The only man to do that in the last 54 games? Rice, in Week 16 of 2009.
No. 6: The Jets Will Hang 30 on New England
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The Patriots-Jets "historic" showdown in Week 12 was a great shootout; it's just that the Patriots had all the bullets.
In their AFC divisional showdown, the Jets will pose a much better challenger to the top-seeded Patriots.
Brady isn't going to have another near-flawless, four-touchdown passing day. But the Pats will score points. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is healthy, and he gives them a weapon that the Jets did not face last week in Indianapolis.
But the Jets have plenty of fire power too. When they were aggressive last week (that game-winning drive at the end), Mark Sanchez was effective, and they do have two outstanding playmakers in Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes.
And don't sleep on Brad Smith (if he's healthy). The wildcat has had success against New England in the past.
No. 5: Overtime Ruins Green Bay's Season
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The Steelers-Ravens rivalry produced two nail-bitting games this season that could have ended with overtime. And the Bears-Seahawks game in Week 6 could have been headed their as well, had a Robbie Gould onside kick been successful.
But the Packers-Falcons game in Week 12 was even closer.
Thanks to a great drive by Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay tied it up with under a minute remaining and overtime seemed like a sure thing, until a great return and a facemask penalty set the Falcons up with incredible field position.
In the rematch, the game will be just as tight, and just as low-scoring.
Overtime will be needed, and in the first episode under the new rules, the Packers will suffer as the guinea pig. Mike McCarthy will make the wrong decision on kicking off versus not kicking off, trying an onside kick versus not trying an onside kick and/or going for it on fourth down versus kicking a field goal.
Why will it be the wrong decision? Because the Packers will lose, and whichever decision or decisions he made will (with hindsight) be wrong in the minds of the league's talking heads.
No. 4: Eric Weems Carries the Falcons to Victory
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Unlike last season when three of the divisional games were played inside domes, this year the ratio reverses. Only the Falcons-Packers game will be inside. In fact, each of the other three games are being played outside on real grass in likely nasty weather in Pittsburgh, Chicago and New England.
That could lead to some sloppy football, with players falling down, dropped passes and fumbles.
But inside the Georgia Dome, there figures to be a bit cleaner game. And on that fast track, a special teams play might change the direction.
The Falcons have an edge in the kicking game with Eric Weems, the NFC's Pro Bowl special teamer.
Weems returned both a punt and a kickoff for a score in 2010 and averaged the third most yards per return on kicks. For Green Bay, neither Tramon Williams or Jordy Nelson produced nearly as much on either punt or kickoff returns as Weems.
Weems will give the Falcons great field position a few times (perhaps in overtime) and prove the difference between two extremely evenly-matched teams.
No. 3: The Steelers Get Little Pressure on Joe Flacco
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Pittsburgh finished the regular season with an NFL-best 48 sacks, with three of their linebackers—James Harrison, James Farrior and LaMarr Woodley—combining for 26 of them.
Four of those came in the late-season win at Baltimore. But in the snow and cold on the Heinz Field grass (which is always chewed up beyond recognition at this point in the season following 10 Steelers home games, the Pitt Panthers' home schedule and a slab of high school games), they will not be able to get nearly as much pressure on the quarterback.
From the edges, Woodley and Harrison will have trouble turning the corner. And on his sore Achillies, Troy Polamalu will not be able to get to Joe Flacco again and make another season-altering sack/fumble.
And since Joe Flacco has been getting more and more proficient at releasing the ball quickly, the Steelers are going to have to rely more and more on their secondary to hang with Anquan Boldin, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Derrick Mason and especially Todd Heap.
No. 2: Tom Brady Won't Torch the Jets Secondary
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As everyone knows, the Patriots crushed the Jets back in Week 13. That 45-3 loss at Gillette Stadium sent New York into something of a downward spiral.
And on that Monday Night, Tom Brady may have locked up the league's MVP award. He completed 21-of-29 passes for 326 yards and four touchdowns against a defense that was pretty well respected.
In the second Foxborough showdown, Brady will not post the same type of numbers. Although the Jets are again without Jim Leonard (he was lost in the Friday practice prior to the Monday Night game), this time they are prepared for it.
Against the Colts, the Jets defense limited Reggie Wayne to one catch and kept Peyton Manning to relatively average figures: 18-of-26, 225 yards and one TD.
Brady has more weapons and is playing the best football of his career, but he's due for an interception and an off game.
No. 1: The Miracle Seahawks Continue Their Run
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Lately, every year seems to have a Cinderella in the NFL playoffs—the Jets last year, the Cardinals in 2008, the Giants in 2007, the Steelers in 2005, the Panthers in 2003 and so on.
This year, Seattle has the inside track on that tag.
They are again going to be overmatched when they travel to Chicago for the NFC divisional game.
But they defeated the Bears back in Week 6 and thoroughly outplayed Chicago in the second half. Aside from two Robbie Gould field goals, the Bears did not score a single offensive point after their opening-drive touchdown by Matt Forte.
And Mike Williams had a huge breakout game that day, with 10 catches for 123 yards.
Most importantly, they had an answer for Julius Peppers, Brian Urlacher and the Bears' front seven, who recorded zero sacks.
With a similar gameplan, the Seahawks could pull off back-to-back unthinkable wins and be headed to Atlanta for the NFC championship game.
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