Colts Vs. Jets: NFL Playoff Previews With Postgame Reaction

This season was a struggle from start to finish for the Indianapolis Colts.  They started out 2-2, losing games to division rivals Houston and Jacksonville.  Then they had a three-game losing streak later in the season to fall to 6-6 by Week 13.  They needed a four-game winning streak to end the year to even get into the playoffs, and that wasn’t easy, winning three of the four games by a combined 10 points.  At 10-6, however, they did run their streak of 10+ victory seasons to nine.

The New York Jets also had a turbulent year.  After last year’s surprise run to the AFC Championship Game followed by an offseason that saw big-name additions like cornerback Antonio Cromartie, running back LaDainian Tomlinson and wide receiver Santonio Holmes, New York was many people’s preseason Super Bowl pick.  They lost a Week 1 slugfest to Baltimore 10-9, then won nine of their next 10, looking very much the part of a Super Bowl team. 

Then things went cockeyed.  They scored nine points combined in back-to-back losses to New England and Miami before winning handily in Pittsburgh.  They closed the year by giving up 38 points in a loss to Chicago then scoring 38 points in a win over Buffalo.  At 11-5, and after so much hype, the Jets enter the playoffs as the No. 6 seed, the exact position as last year.

When these teams meet in Indianapolis tonight, will the Colts have enough left in the tank to pull out a win and will they be playing the bad Jets or the Super Bowl-caliber Jets?

Home-Field Advantage?

Indianapolis was 6-2 at home this season, but the only playoff team they beat was Kansas City way back in Week 5 when they still had most of their offensive roster on the field instead of injured reserve.  They scored 27 points per game at home this year, outscoring opponents by almost a touchdown per game on average. 

The Jets, on the other hand, were 6-2 on the road, but four of those wins were over Cleveland, Buffalo, Detroit and Denver.  They went 1-2 against playoff teams on the road, beating the Steelers, but losing in Chicago and getting embarrassed in New England in Week 13.

Indy is going to be fired up for this one.  They’re still the reigning AFC Champs, and they won’t give up that title easily.  But the Jets are exactly the type of team that can quiet that crowd in a hurry.

Case in Point(s)

The Colts offense was decimated by injuries this season.  Virtually every skill position player on the team, except Peyton Manning, has missed games at some point.  Even at that, Manning turned this team into the fourth-highest scoring unit in the league.  They broke the 30-point mark six times this season, winning five of those games.  They only played three games against playoff opposition, however, and went 1-2, beating the Chiefs but losing close games to New England and Philadelphia.

The Jets finished with the 13th-ranked offense in the league, but they were very up and down.  They broke 30 points four times, winning three of those games.  New York’s schedule included six playoff opponents and they went a less-than-inspiring 2-4.  They only scored in the single digits for three of those losses, including being shut out by Green Bay.

No matter who is on the field, Indianapolis always seems to end up in the mid-20s on the scoreboard.  The Jets are a different matter; they could explode or they could get totally shut down.  This is a team that lost three games this season when their defense allowed 10 points or less.  Generally, though, when they score, they win.  New York was 11-1 this year when they scored more than nine points.

The Guys Under Center

Peyton Manning has had, alternately, his most successful and his most disappointing season this year.  What he’s been able to do with a revolving door of receivers and backs has been amazing. 

He has, however, been prone to an unusually high amount of crucial interceptions, including throwing 11 in one three-game stretch.  He did finish with 4,700 yards and 33 touchdowns, but he also checked in at No. 16 out of the 79 QBs who took a snap this season.  That amounts to an off-year for him.

For the Jets, Mark Sanchez hasn’t really made the kind of progress many had hoped for coming into this season.  His completion percentage is under 55 percent, and he barely threw more touchdowns than interceptions, 17 to 13.  He finished up in the lower half of all quarterbacks, rating 50th with a pedestrian QB Rating of 75.3.  Sanchez showed flashes of brilliance in the playoffs last season when called upon, and he’ll have to do it again if the Jets are to make another run this year.

Watch out for the INTs from both of these guys.  Whoever throws fewer picks will win.

Who Can Stop the Run?

The Colts have one of the worst rush defenses in the entire league, finishing 25th, and even that seems higher than it should be.  They’ve been gashed by backs good and not-so-good all season. 

The Jets, meanwhile, sport the third-best rush defense out there, giving up only 90 yards per game.  In a bit of bad matchup news for Indy, the Colts also have the 29th-ranked rushing offense while the Jets are fourth best at almost 150 yards per game.

LaDainian Tomlinson of the Jets began the season looking rejuvenated, but he faded badly, failing to eclipse the 1,000-yard mark for the second straight season.  Shonn Green exploded onto the scene in the playoffs last year, but hasn’t yet been able to translate that into consistent success, but he has the size and speed to give the Colts fits, in particular.

The Colts have rotated Donald Brown, Joseph Addai and even retread Dominic Rhodes in their efforts to generate any kind of ground game.  Addai may finally be healthy, but let’s see how long he stays that way against the tough Jets defensive front.

Look for New York to control the clock on the ground, forcing Indy to abandon the run almost entirely by the third quarter.

Who Will Win?

Unlike last year’s playoffs when all the matchups favored the Colts, this year the reverse is true.  What Indy wants to do plays into the Jets' strengths and what the Jets want to do plays into Indy’s weaknesses. 

Shonn Green will be the guy we saw last year at this time, at least for this week, and have a big game.  That will keep Sanchez from having to do too much, and make Peyton throw, throw and throw some more into a Jets secondary that could pull down three or four picks in the game.  New York will control this from the outset and win fairly handily.

Final Score:  Jets 23, Colts 10

Postgame Reaction

I was sweatin' this one a bit.  I'm not certain exactly what the Jets were thinking in the first half.  It was obvious Sanchez couldn't hit the broad side of a barn.  Everything he threw most the night was high, even a lot of his completions.  The Jets are fortunate there wasn't more than one interception.  He did redeem what was otherwise a horrible game by marching them down the field for the game winning field goal.

I was very impressed with Peyton Manning.  He was patient in a way you don't see often in a quarterback in a big game, and in a way, particularly, with him in the past.  Quarterbacks get so much acclaim for when throwing the ball, they don't get enough respect for when they choose not to throw. 

The Jets were loading up the secondary and leaving gaping holes to run in late in the second half, and Peyton used that to get in position to win the game instead of trying to force something through the air like he would have done earlier in his career.  It's true they lost, but they almost stole a game the Jets controlled for much of the second half. 

Can the Jets go into New England and win?  I'm not sure I'd bet against them.  Their defense played a fantastic game.  The Colts had only one touchdown, and that was a 57-yard pass on a blown coverage.  It wasn't a long, sustained drive.  Darrelle Revis held Reggie Wayne to 1 catch for 1 yard.  Indy did have some success running the ball later in the game, but that was exactly what the Jets wanted them to do at that point. 

If New York had emphasized the run more right from the get-go, this game never would have come down a last-second field goal.  If the Jets are going to beat New England, they're going to have to control the clock and dictate the Patriots' strategy, just like they did in the second half tonight. 

The real key is Sanchez.  Unless he plays a whole lot better next week, they'll get killed.  If he's still throwing everything high, look out for turnovers.  The Patriots defense may be inexperienced but they are also very opportunistic.