NFL Coach of the Year: A Look at the 2010 Candidates
With the end of the regular season comes voting for the three biggest individual awards in the NFL: Most Valuable Player, Comeback Player of the Year and Coach of the Year. The first two look to be decided at this point. Tom Brady is almost a certain lock to win MVP, while Michael Vick has a stranglehold on comeback player honors.
But Coach of the Year is still wide open. While the race usually has three or four clear-cut candidates, no less than a dozen head men can make a claim to the award this year.
It's a shame that playoff performance doesn't factor into the coaching honor; after all, some coaches are much better in the postseason than others. With that said, since the voters don't consider the playoffs, we won't either. Here are the candidates in reverse order of record, along with why they might win it and why they might fall short.
Steve Spagnuolo, St. Louis Rams (7-9)
1 of 12
Why He'll Win: St. Louis won a total six games in the previous three (2007-09) seasons. they won seven this year under second-year man Spagnuolo, and were in playoff contention until the final weekend. Spagnuolo was the defensive coordinator for the New York Giants when they won the Super Bowl three years ago, and it was defensive more than Sam Bradford that led the turnaround. The Rams finished 12th in scoring defense after ranking 31st in 2009, ninth in Defensive Passer Rating after coming in 31st the year before.
Why He Won't: The Rams played the second-easiest schedule in the league - aided by six games against the NFC West - and they still couldn't get to 0.500. They also put in a lifeless effort against against Seattle in Week 17 with a playoff spot on the line, scoring just six points against a team they beat 20-3 in their first meeting. That will undoubtedly stick in the minds of a few voters.
Pete Carroll, Seattle Seahawks (7-9)
2 of 12
Why He'll Win: After escaping USC just before the Reggie Bush sanctions hit, Carroll took over a Seattle team that had gone 4-12 and 5-11 in the previous two seasons, and led them to the division title. With the season on the line in Week 17, he coaxed a stellar performance from back-up quarterback Charlie Whitehurst and showed the Quest home field advantage is back.
Why He Won't: Making the playoffs doesn't change the fact that the Seahawks aren't a good team. 23rd in scoring offense, 25th in scoring defense, 27th in turnover differential...pick an important category, and the chances are Seattle was in the bottom third of the league. That doesn't win awards.
Tom Cable, Oakland Raiders (8-8)
3 of 12
Why He'll Win: Simply put, Tom Cable did not deserve to lose his job. The Raiders hadn't won more than five games in a season since their Super Bowl appearance in 2002, but Cable led them to eight this year, including a 6-0 mark against the AFC West. Oakland looked downright unstoppable at times; five of their wins, including against playoff teams Seattle and Kansas City, were by at least 15 points.
Why He Won't: The Raiders were the definition of a hot-and-cold team. For all their big wins, they also lost games to San Francisco, Arizona, and Houston - not exactly playoff-caliber teams - and were annihilated 35-3 in Pittsburgh. That, and losing his job doesn't exactly help Cable's chances.
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Raheem Morris, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4 of 12
Why He'll Win: Tampa Bay went 3-13 in 2009, and wasn't expected to do much (if any) better this season. Instead, second-year coach Morris led them to a 10-6 record. Utilizing similarly young talent such as second-year quarterback Josh Freeman and undrafted rookie running back LeGarrette Blount, Tampa Bay missed the playoffs on a tie-breaker, but established a strong foundation for the coming seasons.
Why He Won't: The Buccaneers were one of the biggest beneficiaries of scheduling in the league. They went just 1-5 against teams with winning records, with the one win coming against a New Orleans team that stopped trying in the fourth quarter when they knew they couldn't improve their playoff position. We'll see how they do in the future against tougher opponents.
Andy Reid, Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)
5 of 12
Why He'll Win: Philadelphia traded away longtime quarterback Donovan McNabb in the offseason, then made a drastic early-season move, replacing Kevin Kolb with Michael Vick. But Reid reinvented the Eagles' offense on the fly, riding big plays on both sides of the ball to his first division title since 2006.
Why He Won't: For all the talk about how good the Eagles were and how it was supposed to be a rebuilding year, they still had one fewer win than in 2009. Not only that, but apart from the final eight minutes against the Giants, they looked like a bad football team the final three weeks. Did Reid let other teams figure his out too fast?
Todd Haley, Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)
6 of 12
Why He'll Win: Haley engineered a similar turnaround as the team on the other side of Missouri. Kansas City's 10 wins matched their total from 2007-2009, riding a league-best ground game to their first playoff appearance since 2006 and first division title since 2003. What is it with second-year coaches and turnarounds?
Why He Won't: Not only did Kansas City have the league's easiest schedule - they played just three games against teams with winning records - but it's unclear how much credit should go to Haley and how much to coordinators Romeo Crennel and Charlie Weis, who won three Super Bowls as a duo in New England. The Chiefs also laid a total egg in Week 17 when they could have gotten the No. 3 seed with a win (and thus avoided a potential Round 2 trip to New England).
Rex Ryan, New York Jets (11-5)
7 of 12
Why He'll Win: With all the talk and bravado, it's easy to forget that the Jets had a pretty good year. Their 11 wins matched the second-most in franchise history, which would have been enough to win most other divisions in the NFL. The Jets also made the playoffs in back-to-back years for the first time since 2001 and 2002.
Why He Won't: Unlike last year, the Jets backed into the postseason, going 2-3 in their final five games. Ryan's proud defense also took a step back, dropping from 1st to 6th in the NFL while giving up 45 points to New England (great offense) and 38 to Chicago (not-so-great offense). And there's those foot videos too.
Lovie Smith, Chicago Bears (11-5)
8 of 12
Why He'll Win: Few people had Lovie Smith surviving past this season after the Bears went 7-9 in 2009 and didn't do much in the offseason. Instead, he'll probably be getting an extension. The Chicago defense regained its form of lore, and the team now has its first division title and playoff appearance since their run to the Super Bowl in 2006.
Why He Won't: The perception still remains that Chicago isn't as good as its record. Despite a tough post-Thanksgiving stretch, they still had one of the easier schedules in the league. That vaunted defense also got lit up for 33 points in a half by New England, and 34 points by a middle-of the-pack Jets offense. It's hard to vote for a coach if you still don't believe in their team.
John Harbaugh, Baltimore Ravens (12-4)
9 of 12
Why He'll Win: Baltimore underachieved in 2009, finishing at 9-7 despite ranking in the top-10 in most statistical categories. Harbaugh turned those stats into wins this year, eventually losing a tiebreaker to Pittsburgh for the AFC North title. He's turned Joe Flacco into a bona fide quarterback, and has gotten Baltimore into the playoffs each of his three seasons at the helm.
Why He Won't: Harbaugh may be fighting a case of Not Quite Good Enough Syndrome. He has 32 regular season wins in three years...and no division titles. His Ravens also tend to play to their competition; one week they're surrendering 95 and 99-yard fourth quarter drives to the Texans, the next they're beating the defending Super Bowl champion Saints. Where's the killer instinct?
Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)
10 of 12
Why He'll Win: Pittsburgh's season is a tribute to organizational stability - and that includes the coach. Tomlin led the Steelers to a 3-1 record with Ben Roethlisberger to start the year, keying a 12-season and first round bye after missing the playoffs in 2009. Tomlin has been a leader beyond his years (he's still only 38), knowing whom he can keep and whom he can let go (see Holmes, Santonio) without missing a beat.
Why He Won't: Many will argue that Pittsburgh's improvement this year had more to do with a healthy Troy Polamalu than with coaching. The Steelers also earned their record mainly by taking care of business against the NFL also-rans; they were a surprising 3-4 against teams with winning records (even the 2009 version went 4-3 in those games).
Mike Smith, Atlanta Falcons (13-3)
11 of 12
Why He'll Win: Before Mike Smith came along, Atlanta had never even had back-to-back winning seasons; they now have three in a row. The Falcons earned the NFC's top seed and lost just one game outside the state of Pennsylvania. They weren't outstanding in any one category, but they did everything well: 5th in scoring offense, 5th in scoring defense, 3rd in turnover differential...you get the idea.
Why He Won't: Smith won the award two years ago, and only one person has multiple Coach of the Year honors since they stopped giving separate conference awards. (Hint: he's on the next slide.) Plus, one has to remember that this year's step forward came after taking a step back in 2009 with essentially the same cast of characters.
Bill Belichick, New England Patriots (14-2)
12 of 12
Why He'll Win: His leading receiver and his top two running backs weren't drafted out of college. He started 22 different first and second-year players. When he traded his supposed best receiver after just four games, everyone thought he was writing the season off. Instead, Belichick led the Patriots to the NFL's best record. He also became the first coach in league history to have four seasons with at least 14 wins. All in all, not bad for a rebuilding year.
Why He Won't: It's all about expectations. Belichick won Coach of the Year in 2003 (14-2) and 2007 (16-0), and went 11-5 in 2008 after losing Tom Brady eight minutes into the season. When you keep doing great things year after year, everyone comes to expect them, and they're less impressed when you do it again. In short, people are used to this.
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