New York Jets vs. Indianapolis Colts: Jets Will Soar Over the Colts in Playoffs

Here we are, folks!  It’s time for my final NFL Wild Card Playoff prediction.  It’s another case of youth vs. experience, not to mention a grudge match of last year’s AFC Championship Game.  I won’t beat around the bush any longer.  This is the New York Jets matched up against the Indianapolis Colts.

Record

On paper, the Jets have a slightly better record at 11-5 compared to the Colts’ 10-6.  Both teams had interesting schedules; so let’s analyze the records, starting with the Jets.

Of the Jets’ 11 wins, nine came against teams that did not make the postseason.  Still, this isn’t enough reason to write them off, as the two remaining victories were major upset wins against the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers, by scores of 28-14 and 22-17.

Also, five of the 11 wins were come-from-behind victories.  That’s pretty amazing how Mark Sanchez is only a second-year player and his offense is unpredictable, for the most part.

Now let’s take a look at the Colts record.  Don’t get me wrong.  Peyton Manning is one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history, but it’s hard for me to give him credit for this season.  Yes, the Colts won the AFC South with a 10-6 record, but how many of those wins came against playoff teams?  I’ll tell you right now: just one!

Apart from a 19-9 victory against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 5, the rest of the Colts victories were against squads that missed the playoffs.  Of their six losses, only two came against playoff teams and at one point, they were on a three-game losing streak that was highlighted by a dreadful overtime loss to the Dallas Cowboys.

That all being said, while they are a very talented team, the Colts had a fairly easy schedule, and now it’s time to see how they do against a team that contended all season.

Edge: Jets

Quarterback

As I said before, this is an epic rematch, so let’s take a look at the quarterbacks, starting with Mark Sanchez.

I know this was only his second season in the NFL, but Mark Sanchez greatly improved after his rookie year.  His passer rating jumped from 63 to 75.3, and his interception total dropped from 20 to 13.  His touchdowns?  Try up from 12 to 17, to go with a now-career high 3,291 passing yards.  In a sense, he subtly silenced his critics and proved that he has what it takes to be a team leader, as evidenced by those five come-from-behind wins.

Now let’s take a look at Peyton Manning.  Overall, he had a very solid year considering how he didn’t have one of his top targets, tight end Dallas Clark, for most of the season.  He managed to finish the season with a career-high 4,700 yards (at age 34, no less) and 33 touchdowns.

Yet, while Manning’s passer rating was a respectable 91.9, it was a significant drop from last year’s 99.9.  On top of that, his 17 interceptions were his highest total since 2002.

Still, that doesn’t take away from the fact that Peyton Manning is a tested veteran with tons of postseason experience and Mark Sanchez, while a good young quarterback with a bright future, still has a lot to learn at the professional level before he can be put in the same class as No. 18.

Edge: Colts

Running Game

Regarding the running game, this game is very one-sided.  The Jets finished fourth in rushing offense, while the Colts finished 29th.  Still, let’s take a look at both teams’ runners.

On the Jets end, they had a true free agency and fantasy sleeper in LaDainian Tomlinson.  With most people thinking he was done and all washed up, LT had a stellar season with 914 rush yards (as well as 368 receiving) to go with six touchdowns.  He sat out the season finale, and that may have cost him his 1,000 yards.

When Tomlinson wasn’t getting the carries, Shonn Greene was.  He finished with 766 yards and two touchdowns.  And let’s not forget Brad Smith!  The leader of the team’s Wildcat offense ran for 299 yards on 38 carries.  That’s about eight yards per carry!  Needless to say, the Jets have a great number of options when running the ball.

The Colts, on the other hand, don’t have that privilege.  First-stringer Joseph Addai missed eight weeks with an injury, finishing with only 495 yards and four touchdowns.  Even if he was healthy, his total career stats are underwhelming.  He only averages about four yards per carry and while he’s good for crashing the goal line (as indicated by his 10 touchdowns last season), it’s rare that he’ll ever be a force at finding holes in the rush and break away from defenders. 

The same can be said about his backup, Donald Brown, who only had 497 yards and two touchdowns in Addai’s absence, although in all fairness Javarris James was getting most of the red-zone carries during that time.  I know that the Colts offense is a passing one, but that’s no excuse for not having an effective running game to turn to when it’s time to throw the defense off a bit.

Edge: Jets

Passing Offense

Here, we have a matchup of the Colts’ top-ranked passing game against that of the Jets, which was ranked 22nd.  Both teams have great receivers, so let’s dive right in.

I’ve got to say, the Colts passing offense was unbelievable considering how tight end Dallas Clark was on injured reserve after just six weeks!  Reggie Wayne was good for 111 receptions, 1,355 yards and six touchdowns, and third-year receiver Pierre Garcon proved that last season wasn’t a fluke as he made 67 catches for 784 yards and six touchdowns.  Even possession receiver Austin Collie stepped up, with 673 yards and eight touchdowns before suffering a concussion and going on injured reserve.

The Jets receivers, while talented, suffered due to the inconsistency of Mark Sanchez.  Still, they managed to communicate well and put up effective numbers.

In his second year with the team, Braylon Edwards caught 53 passes for 904 yards and seven touchdowns.  Great numbers but let’s be honest, he has 1,000+ yards if Sanchez doesn’t falter once the weather turns colder.

Even more amazing, though, was Santonio Holmes.  Despite missing the first four games of the season due to a suspension, he stepped right in and became Sanchez’s go-to guy, pulling in six touchdowns (two of which were the game-winners in the come-from-behinds) and making 52 catches for 746 yards.  Again, another near definite case of a 1,000-yard season were there not extenuating circumstances.

Jerricho Cotchery was a decent possession receiver, but Dustin Keller proved himself to be a force not only as a tight end but as someone who could streak down the field and make big catches in crunch time.  2010 was a career season for the third-year player out of Purdue, as he caught 55 passes for 687 yards and five touchdowns, all career highs.

Still, as I said before, the Jets passing offense is just too inconsistent to be considered a force in a playoff game.  The receivers are a young and talented squad that I’m sure will do well in the postseason, but the Colts receivers just have more experience.

Edge: Colts

Defense

Being a team coached by Rex Ryan, a disciple of former Baltimore Ravens coach Brian Billick, it’s no surprise that the Jets have an elite defense.  Sure enough, theirs finished third in the NFL this season compared to the 20th-ranked defense of the Colts.

Looking at the players they have on that defensive squad, I can see why.  Their front line has punishing run-stoppers, led by 11-year veteran Shaun Ellis.  Besides Ellis, nose tackle Sione Pouha did a fine job stepping in for Kris Jenkins (placed on IR after Week 1 with another knee injury), and hometown hero Mike DeVito was effective as well.

Even more impressive is the team’s linebacking corps.  Honestly, I have never seen one more balanced.  Bryan Thomas and Calvin Pace have proven to be two tremendous pass rushers, and Bart Scott delivers punishing hits in coverage with his counterpart, David Harris.

The secondary was effective, though not as much as last season.  Darrelle Revis wasn’t as effective as he was last season, missing three games with a hamstring injury as well as the entire preseason due to a highly publicized contract dispute.  Still, the receiving defense managed to be pesky thanks to newly acquired cornerback Antonio Cromartie.  Eric Smith was a good coverage safety after the loss of punisher Jim Leonhard due to injury, and even rookie Kyle Wilson showed some promise.

The Colts defense, despite being ranked 20th, still has a few impressive members.  Defensive ends Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney are punishing pass rushers, accounting for 21 of the team’s 30 total sacks.

The linebackers are three coverage men (common in a 4-3) led by Gary Brackett, overall very effective.  The secondary, however, leaves something to be desired.

Due to various injuries, the Colts had to use a number of different players at both corner positions.  Antoine Bethea stepped up at safety, registering 106 tackles, but the lack of defensive leader Bob Sanders throughout most of the season definitely hurt.  That being said, depending on which Mark Sanchez shows up, the Jets receivers are sure to give the secondary a hard time in what I believe will be one of the best games of the playoffs.

Edge: Jets

So I’ve analyzed this game down to a tee, and now it’s time to predict the score.  Here it is!

Score prediction: Jets 31, Colts 24

**Special thanks to Sara Fleisher for help with the title!!