NFL Playoff Predictions: 10 Reasons Patriots and Falcons Are Super Bowl Bound
NFL playoff predictions! You love 'em, I love 'em and 'tis the season to make them.
The NFL playoffs kick off on Saturday with the start of Wild Card Weekend and there are several intriguing matchups to consider. But for now, our eyes are on Dallas and the No. 1 seeds in either conference.
We're also here to opine that it will indeed be the Atlanta Falcons and the New England Patriots butting heads in Super Bowl XLV. This can certainly be debated without end, but there are plenty of reasons why this matchup is in the cards.
Here are the top 10.
The Falcons Have the Most to Prove
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One gets the feeling that the Falcons have, more or less, been the NFL's little train that could ever since the whole Mike Vick fiasco in 2007.
But now that they've gone 13-3, won the NFC South and wrapped up the No. 1 seed in the conference, you also get the feeling that NFL fans and pundits alike have serious reservations about how good the Falcons truly are.
If I may speak subjectively, I'd say that the Falcons are the one team out of the 12 teams in the playoffs that has the most to prove. If I can sense this, you can bet they do too. As always, whenever you have a team with a proverbial "chip on their shoulder," you have to like their chances.
The Patriots Have Done This Before
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I wanted so desperately to avoid using the whole legacy argument. But when you have a team that has done what the Pats have done over the last decade, I realized that avoiding the legacy argument was a fool's errand.
Indeed, while you also have to have faith in the Pittsburgh Steelers because of their recent history, what Bill Belichick's Patriots teams have done in the last 10 years or so makes them a horse of a truly different color.
While actually winning the whole thing may be another issue, you know as well as I do that they're the best bet out of all the 12 playoff teams to reach the Super Bowl.
Moreover, if the Pats do make it, it's probably safe to say that we are watching the premier dynasty in football history.
Atlanta Is Money in Crunch Time
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We all know that the Falcons specialize in winning close games and one of the things that allows them to do so is their ability to perform well when the chips are down.
Matt Ryan may not have the flashiest numbers, but he's proven to be one of the best administrators of the two-minute offense in the league. By my count, he led three game-winning scoring drives in the regular season, two of which were against playoff teams (Baltimore and Green Bay).
Moreover, the team itself is clutch with time winding down. Roddy White forced a fumble after a Nate Clements interception in their late win against San Francisco, and there was that Brent Grimes interception that sealed the deal against Tampa Bay.
On balance, performing well in the clutch just seems to be their forte.
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New England's Defense Got Really Good in a Hurry
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As good as the Patriots are, there are still a lot of people out there who are saying: "Yeah, but their defense is pretty weak."
At this point, such a claim is utter nonsense. True, they allowed an average of 24.2 points per game over the first 11 games of the season, a figure that would place them near the bottom of the league. But in their final five games, they allowed seven or fewer points in four of them.
Yes, the Green Bay game does raise some red flags, as they allowed a backup quarterback to throw three touchdowns and also got out-gained 369-249. But you have to give them the benefit of the doubt about that game, as they apparently weren't taking the great Matt Flynn very seriously.
Regardless, their defense has gone from being a liability to a legitimate strength and it will certainly be good enough to help usher them towards Dallas.
Michael Turner Versus Some Soft Run Defenses
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Among the six playoff teams in the NFC, only two defenses allowed fewer than 110 rushing yards per game. One is the Bears (who led the NFC with an average of 90.1 rush yards/game) and the other is the Falcons.
While Michael Turner, who led the conference with 1,371 rushing yards and 12 TDs (tied with Adrian Peterson), could ultimately have to worry about Chicago's stout rush defense, it is because of him that the Falcons will have the advantage on their way to the Super Bowl.
While I don't want to go out on a limb by suggesting that Turner will do something like rush for at least 150 yards in the two games leading to the Super Bowl, I will suggest that he will be able to sustain the success he had in the regular season, which was a big reason why Atlanta was second in the NFL with an average time of possession of 32:47.
The Bye Week Won't Stop New England's Roll
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It's been apparent since early November that no force, in this or any other universe, is going to be able to stop the Patriots.
Indeed, they finished the season by winning their final eight games and the only "bad" one of the bunch was a 31-27 win over a playoff team (Week 15 against Green Bay). In addition to the surprising slimness of the final score, that also tied for the fewest points they scored in any of those final eight wins.
Moreover, if Week 17 is any indication, they are once again hell-bent on clobbering all of their opponents, not unlike 2007.
Before you point out that they didn't win the Super Bowl that year, the point is that they at least made it there. So ha!
Atlanta's Severely Underrated Defense
7 of 10
As good as New England's defense has been down the stretch, Atlanta's defense has been good all season.
But the Falcons have hardly been a dominant offensive team this season. On the contrary, they generally specialized in winning close games, as I've already pointed out. The reason they were able to do that is their defense.
The Falcons give up their share of yards on defense, but they allowed just 18.0 points a game, the fifth-best average in the NFL. Not unlike last year's Saints, they were also very good at creating turnovers, finishing third in the NFL in turnover margin per game (plus-0.9).
Put simply, they're legit—and they deserve their due credit.
New England's Record Against AFC Playoff Teams
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While you have to worry somewhat about Atlanta's 3-2 record against NFC playoff teams (especially considering Seattle shouldn't even count), there's no cause for concern as far as the Patriots' record against the field in the AFC.
The Patriots went 4-1 against AFC playoff teams and that lone loss was to the Jets in Week 2. As you well know, the two teams went in drastically different directions as the season wore on, and the Pats avenged the loss by destroying the Jets 45-3 in Week 13.
In addition, it is hard to look at the other five AFC playoff teams and pick out a worthy opponent for New England. The Pats may not steamroll their way to Dallas, but no team is going to stop them from getting there.
Atlanta's Home Field Advantage
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A lot has been made of the Falcons' home-field advantage. Indeed, the one figure us NFL fans have in mind virtually every second of every day (I exaggerate, of course) is 20-2, which is Matt Ryan's career record in the Georgia Dome.
Of course, their one loss at home this season was to the Saints in a game that you could argue was more of an Atlanta loss than a Saints win.
The Falcons' home-field advantage is not necessarily a matter of dominance, mind you. But it's obvious that there's something about the dome that makes them a better team than they actually are—and it's the biggest reason why a run to the Super Bowl is a very real possibility.
The Patriots Have Tom Brady
10 of 10
We saw what the Patriots looked like without Tom Brady under center when they lost him for the 2008 season. They were good, but not great, finishing 11-5 and missing the playoffs entirely.
Take Tom Brady off this team and there's no way they dominate the field the way they did. Make no mistake—he is the NFL's MVP.
Of course, he is also the key reason why none of the AFC playoff teams are going to beat the Patriots. It goes beyond just his statistical brilliance (NFL-best 111.0 rating and 36 TDs). Brady is a born winner and he seems hungrier this year than he's ever been.
He won't let the good folks of New England down.
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