2011 NFL Draft: A Comprehensive Buffalo Bills Draft Guide

As of January 5th, the only things we know for sure is that the Buffalo Bills own the third pick in the draft, and that Shawne Merriman will be a Buffalo Bills player for the 2011 and 2012 seasons. We also know that the Bills will be facing the AFC West and NFC East in the 2011 schedule.

What we don't know is when the NFLPA and the NFL will finalize their new labor contract. We don't know who the Bills will draft with the third overall pick, or if they will decide to trade that pick to move down in the first round to secure additional high picks. We also don't know who the Bills decide to bring back from the 2010 team and what upcoming free agents will be playing for Buffalo in 2011.

Slowly but surely, we will start getting answers to the above questions, and when we do, the Bills main priorities at the draft will become more pronounced. As the college bowl game season winds down, the All-Star games will be shaping up, and Bills fans will want to know what players to start watching or scouting from home.

So, here is your guide to who's who for the upcoming draft.

The Bills Own Five Choices From # 3 To # 117 In First Four Rounds

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GREEN BAY, WI - SEPTEMBER 19: Nick Barnett #56 of the Green Bay Packers tackles Marshawn Lynch #23 of the Buffalo Bills at Lambeau Field on September 19, 2010 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The Packers defeated the Bills 34-7. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Im

In setting up your draft board at home, let's start by focusing on the first four rounds of the draft, recognizing that the Bills will be able to select five players in the first 117 selections. This is also operating under the assumption that Seattle will lose their first round playoff game, because the Seahawks choice in round 4 will be going to the Bills as part of the Marshawn Lynch trade, which would be pick # 117.

So, here is the rundown:

Round 1 - Pick 3

Round 2 - Pick 34

Round 3 - Pick 67

Round 4 - Pick 98

Round 4 - ??? Pick 117 (based on what Seattle does in first round playoff game)   Note: We have to scratch the 117th pick, since Seattle upset the New Orleans Saints in the first round playoff game. The pick will now be lower than 117, to be determined by where the Seahawks finish in the playoffs. By the way, nice run Marshawn!!

Buddy Nix Did Not Trade Down In 2010, Will He In 2011?

In his debut as the Buffalo Bills General Manager at the 2010 draft, Buddy Nix chose not to trade down at any point in the draft. For that matter, he did not trade up either. One of the curiosities for me was how the Bills literally ran their draft pick to Roger Goddell in the first minute of being on the clock, as if C.J. Spiller would disappear if they didn't get his name announced right away. The conviction that Spiller was a steal is a lesson that it pays to take your time and listen to what the other teams are calling you about.

Many experts felt that the C.J. Spiller pick was a luxury selection and a reach. The Bills had more pressing needs at tackle and at quarterback, at least according to most experts in the country.

For the 2011 draft, Buddy Nix and company knows the weak spots that have to be addressed. He has benefited from a full year at One Bills Drive to make sure his scouts have been on the lookout for every potential star player at each position that is holding the Bills back.

You can rest assured that they have a very deep list for every position and that list will be broken down in to multiple tiers for each position. As an example,if the Bills get a phone call to move down seven spots in the first round, how many defensive players does Nix grade out as first tier, that could still be there at overall pick 10? Will the 10th pick still be a major impact player in Nix's estimation or not?

You can apply that kind of logic or projecting value for each round of the draft. How the plan is executed comes down to doing your homework, and sometimes a little bit of luck that a player you want slides down to a round you never thought he would fall to. We all saw what kind of talent the Bills were able to bring in from last year that was never drafted at all.

Disclaimer Time

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PASADENA, CA - NOVEMBER 06: Akeem Ayers #10 of the UCLA Bruins makes a catch in front of Dwight Roberson #59 and Cameron Collins #5 of the Oregon State Beavers at the Rose Bowl on November 6, 2010 in Pasadena, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Image

As of this writing, we don't know what underclassmen are declaring for the draft or not. Some announcements have come out already like Akeem Ayers (pictured), the talented UCLA linebacker, who has declared that he is going to enter the draft.

Other names that made a similar announcement to Ayers was Notre Dame Tight End Kyle Rudolph, Missouri QB Blaine Gilbert, and Miami of Florida CB Brandon Harris. Many more announcements will be forthcoming shortly, and each subsequent addition to the pool ensures that the Bills will have a stronger quality draft class of talent to pluck as the draft passes from one round to the next.

Some key dates of interest to pass along that all involve the draft and analysis of the players:

Jan. 22 - East West Shrine Classic

Jan 29 - Senior Bowl

Feb 5  - NFLPA Game

Feb 23 - March 1  -  NFL Combines in Indianapolis

NFL Draft - April 28 - April 30

What Are The Buffalo Bills Top Priorities To Address At The Draft?

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EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ - JANUARY 02: John Conner #38 of the New York Jets runs for a touchdown against the defense of Donte Whitner #20 of the Buffalo Bills at New Meadowlands Stadium on January 2, 2011 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Al Bello/Ge

What are the top priorities that the Bills need to shore up headed in to the 2011 season? Where do I start?

Let's dive right in to the defensive side first. In the following categories, the Bills rank in the bottom quartile in the NFL for the 2010 season.

Overall Defense Yardage Allowed (24th) 361.6 yards allowed/game, Rush Defense (32) 169.6 yards per game, Points Allowed per Game (28th) 26.6 average, 1st Downs Allowed By Rush (32) 138, Total Rush Attempts Against (32) 571, Rush Yards Allowed/Attempt (32) 4.8 yards/rush, Sacks (27) 27, and total team tackles (32) 1337.

Analyzing all of the above translates in to the following: The Bills rush defense was so bad that teams did not have to pass the ball to beat the Bills. The Bills led the league in tackles because the defense couldn't get off of the field. One long drive after another. As a result, the offense suffered because they had less time on the field to do their thing. So, the Bills have to address the run defense early and often.

Offense deserves some scrutiny as well. Consider the following. The Bills failed to score more than 17 points in any of their final six games. The Bills averaged 17.7 points a game (28th) and that also factors in the defensive touchdowns. The overall offense was ranked 25th, generating just under 305 yards a game. The pass offense finished at 24th with 197.4 yards per game. The Bills were 26th in first downs with 263 and they were 31st overall in the NFL with 33 total giveaways by the offense. The Bills were tied for next to last with 16 fumbles and their +/- ratio of -12 was tied for 30th.

The Bills have to take better care of the ball. The offense was very productive in the red zone over the span of the first half of the season, but the percentage of red zone success continued to drop as the season wore on. The Bills have to generate more offense and be in the mid-high 20's in points per game, or more, if they expect to win in the current NFL. To be elite, a good barometer is the Patriots, who led the league with 32.4 points per game.

What Do The Bills Do With The Third Overall Pick?

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AUBURN, AL - SEPTEMBER 18: Michael Dyer #5 of the Auburn Tigers against Da'Quan Bowers #93 of the Clemson Tigers at Jordan-Hare Stadium on September 18, 2010 in Auburn, Alabama. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

What are the odds that the Bills select a player from Clemson with their first pick in successive drafts? The player pictured is Clemson defensive end Da'Quan Bowers and in most mock drafts right now he is projected as going in the first two or three overall picks.

The Bills need help with their pass rush, as well as stuffing the run. To the extent that Bowers is the best run stuffer/pass rusher available is something that will be highly scrutinized at the various college all-star games in addition to the combines at Indianapolis.

In addition to Bowers, other options at the third choice include Nick Fairley, the defensive tackle from Auburn University, or shutdown cornerback Patrick Peterson from LSU. As of now, their is a debate going on as to who is the better defensive lineman, Bowers or Fairley. Either one should be an impact type.

The argument for Peterson would be that if you have a guy that shuts down one side of the field like Darrelle Revis, then you can bring more players up to the line of scrimmage and shade towards the opposite side with your remaining defenders. Peterson is supposed to be that good.

Of course, Nix could always pull a repeat from 2010 draft, and draft somebody on offense. If that happens, it would be for a quarterback. The entire world agrees that if Andrew Luck declares for the draft, the Carolina Panthers will select him with the first pick. After that, the other quarterbacks most frequently mentioned range from Ryan Mallet of Arkansas, Jake Locker of Washington, Cam Newton of Auburn and Blaine Gilbert of Missouri. But outside of Luck, are any of the other QB's worthy of the third overall pick?

Finally, we can't rule out the possibility that Nix trades down in the first round, which we address next.

Trading Down In First Round, and Players That Could Slip To Early Second Round

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ARLINGTON, TX - DECEMBER 04: Defensive end Jeremy Beal #44 of the Oklahoma Sooners celebrates with the Big 12 Championship Trophy after the Sooners beat the Nebraska Cornhuskers 23-20 at Cowboys Stadium on December 4, 2010 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by

We listed very few options for the third overall pick, because let's face it, there are only so many major impact players available to be had. We are talking elite, cream of the crop types. No reason to make a reach with that third pick.

But, what if Buddy Nix decides to trade down? How much lower would he be willing to drop?  Would he take a team's first and then another second and/or third round pick? Those are reasonable questions to ask.Obviously it will have to be an impressive offer to move out of that third slot.

It is time to introduce you to some players slated to go anywhere from the first to the third rounds. We have omitted the running backs, centers and wide receivers, positions the Bills seem unlikely to select, based on the current roster.

Defensive lineman: Adrian Clayborn (Iowa), Robert Quinn (No. Carolina), Stephen Paea (Oregon State), Cameron Jordan (Cal), Cameron Heyward (Ohio St.), Marcel Dareus (Alabama), Allen Bailey (Miami Florida), Corey Liuget (Illinois), Drake Nevis (LSU), Marvin Austin (No. Carolina), Ryan Kerrigan (Purdue), Christian Ballard (Iowa), Phil Taylor (Baylor), Aldon Smith (MIssouri) and JJ Watt (Wisconsin).

Linebackers: Von Miller (Texas A&M), Akeem Ayers (UCLA), Bruce Carter (No. Carolina), Sam Acho (Texas), Jeremy Beal - pictured (Oklahoma), Travis Lewis (Oklahoma), Justin Houston (Georgia), Mark Herzlich (Boston College), Quan Sturdivant (No. Carolina), Ross Homan (Ohio St.), Kelvin Sheppard (LSU), Greg Jones (Michigan St.) and Don't'a Hightower (Alabama)

Secondary: Prince Amukamara (Nebraska), Brandon Harris (Miami Florida), Rahim Moore (UCLA), Curtis Brown (Texas), Janoris Jenkins (Florida), Ras-I Dowling (Virginia), Quinton Carter (Oklahoma), Mark Barron (Alabama), and another C.J. Spiller teammate, DeAndre McDaniel (Clemson).

Offensive Tackles: Gabe Carimi (Wisconsin), Anthony Castonzo (Boston College), DeMarcus Love (Arkansas), Nate Solder (Colorado), Derek Sherrod (Mississippi St.), Jason Pinkston (Pittsburgh), Matt Reynolds (BYU), Tyron Smith (USC), Orlando Franklin (Miami Florida), Ben Ijalana (Villanova), Nate Potter (Boise St.) and Lee Ziemba (Auburn).

Other Areas Of Need

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SOUTH BEND, IN - SEPTEMBER 11: Kyle Randolph #9 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish runs as Jonas Mouton #8 of the Michigan Wolverines closes in at Notre Dame Stadium on September 11, 2010 in South Bend, Indiana. Michigan defeated Notre Dame 28-24. (Photo b

Unfortunately for Buddy Nix, he has more holes to fix than he has draft picks to fill them with. That is why signing free agents that fit in to the Bills master plan is a key part of the rebuilding effort. The signing of Shawne Merriman figures to pay dividends in helping to shore up the defense. How much he indeed helps, remains to be seen.

We already documented some quarterbacks that are highly rated earlier in the article. The Bills are a threat to literally pick up a quarterback in any round of the draft, based on who has fallen to them or who represents very strong value compared to their draft position. I would be surprised to see Brian Brohm back in Buffalo after the debacle in New York last weekend, so the Bills will invest in another rookie to compete in 2011 and learn under Ryan Fitzpatrick.

After quarterback, the other areas that need addressing are offensive tackle and tight end. The Bills completed fewer passes to their tight ends than any other team in the league. The whole tight end position is a mystery to Buffalo. They can't find their guy in the passing game and they can't figure out how to defend against other tight ends. We all witnessed the impact that the rookie tight ends had on the Patriots offense this season.

Chan Gailey employed a revolving door of one right tackle after another, and nobody appears to have a lock on that job yet. In his season-ending press conference, Gailey rated Demetrius Bell's season as so-so. Not exactly a ringing endorsement. He praised him for gutting out the year, but he needs to improve.

Early projections on tackles see the better ones becoming drafted prior to the best tight ends. What is the earliest round that Buddy Nix would consider a tight end? How about one of the fourth round picks, either at number 99 or 117?

Tight end options include: Kyle Randolph (pictured) Notre Dame, Weslye Saunders (So. Carolina), D.J. Williams (Arkansas), Mike McNeill (Nebraska), Lance Kendricks (Wisconsin), Blake Ayles (USC), Charlie Gantt (Michigan St.), Joe Torchia (Virginia), and Luke Stocker (Tennessee).

Intangibles

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MIAMI, FL - JANUARY 03: (L-R) Jeremy Stewart #34 and Owen Marecic #48 of the Stanford Cardinal celebrate after Stewart scored a 60-yard rushing touchdown in the first quarter against the Virginai Tech Hokies during the 2011 Discover Orange Bowl at Sun Li

What if the Bills were to draft Stanford's Owen Marecic? He of course is the guy that plays regularly on both offense and defense for Stanford, as their starting fullback, and inside linebacker.

Watching Marecic play against Virginia Tech, I am convinced his value on a roster would be invaluable. He can cover tight ends out of the linebacker slot. He can give you a tough runner on short yardage situations. He can pass block when you want to go to maximum protection packages. Based on the number of linebacker injuries, he provides solid depth. What round should Marecic go in? Does he start a trend in football where more athletes will learn multiple positions to increase their value to teams?

Obviously we listed quite a few names on the earlier slides. A portion of those will get blown out of the water when they are exposed at the all-star games to be inferior players. We really haven't listed that many of the small school star players, but you can be sure that a number of them will start surfacing and make an impression at the combines. We will address other team needs in the upcoming weeks and spend time talking about the final three rounds then.

This again is an early look at the names to become more familiar with. There are some we will eliminate and others that we need to include, the proverbial diamonds in the rough. One thing is for sure, the Bills have some needs and they need to be right on with their picks in this draft if they are to take another step forward towards becoming a winning organization.