Super Bowl XLV Predictions: Picking the Spreads for Each Super Bowl Matchup
The road to the Super Bowl begins this weekend with some pretty intriguing matchups as well as some games that could put you to sleep.
The New England Patriots enter the playoffs as one of the more overwhelming favorites in recent years, while the Seattle Seahawks could be one of the worst playoff teams in the history of the NFL.
Other teams have a variety of question marks. The Philadelphia Eagles have lost two in a row, albeit one without its starters, but it is not exactly clear how good the Eagles truly are. The Kansas City Chiefs were nearly undefeated at home, but can they compete with the elite teams in the NFL.
Without further adieu, here are the spreads for the each possible Super Bowl matchup.
New England vs. Atlanta
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New England (-4)
The Patriots must be considered a favorite against every team, including Atlanta, which held the best record in the NFC.
The Falcons pass defense does not match up well against Tom Brady and the New England offense (like anyone does?). On the other hand, Matt Ryan could move the ball well against an underwhelming Patriots secondary.
Baltimore vs. Green Bay
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Baltimore (-6)
As aforementioned, the similarities between Green Bay and New Orleans lead to similar predictions; however, Green Bay has an even less impressive running game and an overall less talented roster.
The Ravens would be the favorite in this one by six.
Pittsburgh vs. Atlanta
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Atlanta (-6)
The Falcons have to be given credit for the way they played top teams this season. Moreover, the Pittsburgh defense has been good, but not particularly noteworthy against the pass. While the Steelers may be able to contain Michael Turner, Matt Ryan would be able to move the ball fairly well against Pittsburgh.
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New England vs. Seattle
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New England (- a lot)
Do I really have to explain?
Indianapolis vs. Atlanta
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Atlanta (-1)
If the Colts make it this far, it will undoubtedly be because Peyton Manning uses his playoff experience to simply overpower AFC opponents in the passing game. On the other hand, Atlanta is the more balanced team and will likely be favored for its ability to balance run and pass.
Pittsburgh vs. Philadelphia
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Even.
This would be one of the toughest games to call. Both teams have appeared dominant at times this season, but on the other hand both have not performed incredibly well against the better teams.
Pittsburgh has the better record, but Philadelphia has had a much tougher schedule. This one would simply be too tough to call.
New York Jets vs. Atlanta
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Atlanta (-9)
The Jets haven't really been on track for the last five weeks of the season. Mark Sanchez has had his fair share of struggles, and the defense has been inconsistent, particularly against better teams like New England and Chicago.
Atlanta would be able to limit the overall effectiveness of the Jets offense. At the same time, the Falcons have the talent to overcome whatever defense is thrown at them.
Pittsburgh vs. Chicago
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Pittsburgh (-4)
This would be a hard fought battle in the trenches. Both teams have a pound-the-run strategy and stout run defenses. I hope for the sake of the Super Bowl that this matchup doesn't occur because it would definitely be one of the more boring Super Bowls in recent history.
New England vs. Green Bay
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New England (-3)
The Green Bay Packers could be one of the more surprising playoff teams this year. The Packers have all the tools to succeed: a talented quarterback, a stout defense and a track record of playing the elite teams of the league well.
The Packers lost by just four in a game at New England in December with Matt Flynn playing in place of an injured Aaron Rodgers. On a neutral field with Rodgers under center, Green Bay could definitely have a chance to upset the Patriots.
Pittsburgh vs. Seattle
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Pittsburgh (c'mon)
Over/under on how many times Charlie Whitehurst or Matt Hasselbeck is sacked in this game: 63.
I'll take over.
Baltimore vs. Chicago
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Baltimore (-4)
Baltimore could realistically find itself in the Super Bowl, although it would take three road victories to get there. The Ravens still have one of the better, more experienced defenses in the league. With the addition of Anquan Boldin, Baltimore has a new dimension to its offense.
Chicago would struggle to score against a pass rush as good as that of Baltimore. The Ravens have the edge in this one.
Pittsburgh vs. New Orleans
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New Orleans (-5)
This could be an intriguing Super Bowl matchup. The defending champions would be the favorites over a Pittsburgh team that just has not had the look of a truly elite team this season.
The Steelers could slow down Drew Brees to a certain extent, but the Saints are just a better all-around team.
New England vs. Chicago
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New England (-16)
The Bears do not match up well against the Patriots at all. The Bears defense is centered on stopping the run; however, Chicago is in the bottom half of the league in stopping the pass.
On the other side of the ball, the Bears offense is more run-oriented, a strategy that does not take advantage of the weak New England secondary.
The Patriots beat the Bears by a margin of 29 points in Chicago this season. It wouldn't be difficult to imagine a similar outcome in the Super Bowl.
Baltimore vs. Philadelphia
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Philadelphia (-1)
Philadelphia has the speed to compete with the Baltimore defense. Between Michael Vick, Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson, the Eagles would be able to break enough big plays against the Ravens to win this one in a tight game.
Kansas City vs. Chicago
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Chicago (-3)
Finally, we find a team that Chicago matches up well against. With a staunch run defense, the Bears would be able to limit the effectiveness of Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones.
Offensively, Jay Cutler would be able to move the ball against an average Kansas City defense.
New England vs. Philadelphia
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New England (-3)
The Eagles actually match up well against the Patriots because of the talent on the offensive side of the ball. DeSean Jackson can change a game with his special teams performances. Michael Vick can alter the course of a game with his ability to run the ball.
On the other hand, New England has looked absolutely dominant this year and is still the favorite.
New York vs. Philadelphia
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Philadelphia (-6)
The Jets may have an answer to the Eagles offense, but offensively and on special teams the Jets would be at a major disadvantage. Philadelphia has the better squad and would be favored.
Kansas City vs. New Orleans
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New Orleans (-10)
Not much to say here. New Orleans is simply a better team both offensively and defensively. Kansas City could try to shorten the game by possessing the ball and running it 40 times, but eventually the better team would win and by at least double digits.
Indianapolis vs. Philadelphia
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Indianapolis (-1)
This would indeed be an interesting game. The two teams could easily combine for over 70 points as both defenses have a tendency to give up big numbers. The Colts get the edge because, let's face it, have the Eagles ever been able to win the big game?
Indianapolis vs. New Orleans
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New Orleans (-7)
Give credit to the defending champs here. The Saints have a much improved pass defense and are essentially the same team on offense. New Orleans would have a good chance to repeat as champs given this matchup.
Indianapolis vs. Green Bay
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Even.
One could only dream about this Super Bowl game. Imagine 100 pass attempts between the two teams. It could happen.
New York vs. Chicago
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Chicago (-4)
When these two teams met just two weeks ago, an unexpected outcome occurred. Despite having two of the better defenses in the NFL, the teams combined for 72 total points.
Theoretically, a rematch in the Super Bowl would be a lower scoring affair with a greater concentration on the run game. Still, the Bears must be considered the favorites here after winning just a few weeks ago.
Kansas City vs. Atlanta
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Atlanta (-7)
Kansas City surprised many by taking the AFC West division title. With a home game in round one, the Chiefs could surprise many by possibly sneaking past the Ravens. The Chiefs are a long shot, but with the best running game in the NFL, they could grind out a victory by making the game shorter. Also, on days when Dwayne Bowe shows up, there are few cornerbacks in the NFL who can stick with him.
However, this Kansas City team is merely average defensively and would likely be exposed by Matt Ryan, Michael Turner and Roddy White.
Baltimore vs. New Orleans
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Even.
New Orleans lost at Baltimore in Week 15 in a game decided by less than a touchdown. The Saints had no answer for Ray Rice, who simply ran all over a New Orleans defense with more holes than Swiss cheese.
At the same time, the Ravens could not truly stop Drew Brees. A rematch would be too close to call.
Kansas City vs. Philadelphia
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Philadelphia (-6)
The Eagles would relish the opportunity to avoid Peyton Manning, Tom Brady or Ben Roethlisberger in a potential Super Bowl matchup. While Matt Cassel had a solid, efficient season, he certainly does not strike fear into the hearts of opposing defenses.
The Chiefs do have a solid secondary led by Brandon Flowers and Eric Berry, but it may not be enough to limit the talent Philadelphia possesses in the passing game.
New York vs. New Orleans
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New Orleans (-7)
This game could feature one of the best offenses in the NFL against one of the best defenses. The Saints defense, however, has also been impressive and makes New Orleans a much better team than New York on the whole.
New England vs. New Orleans
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New England (-1)
The New Orleans Saints have one of the best opportunities to take down the Patriots out of all the NFC teams. Drew Brees could light up the scoreboard and push the Patriots into matching score for score.
The Saints defense has also been terrific against the pass, allowing the fourth-fewest passing yards this season, and may be able to slow down Tom Brady and the New England offense.
Kansas City vs. Seattle
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Kansas City (-18)
The Chiefs beat the Seahawks by 18 on the road in Week 15. It would be hard to imagine a different outcome in possibly the least likely Super Bowl game possible.
Baltimore vs. Atlanta
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Atlanta (-3)
Atlanta faced off against Baltimore in Week 10 of the regular season winning by five points. The Ravens pass defense has been unimpressive this season, and Matt Ryan exploited it for over 300 yards and three touchdowns.
Atlanta would have the edge in the rematch, but it is tough to count Baltimore out with all of its playoff experience.
Indianapolis vs. Seattle
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Seattle (-3)
Just kidding.
Kansas City vs. Green Bay
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Green Bay (-4)
See Kansas City vs. New Orleans slide. Green Bay's passing game and overall talent is just too much for the Chiefs.
Baltimore vs. Seattle
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Baltimore. There are only so many "Seattle Seahawks are bad" jokes.
Pittsburgh vs. Green Bay
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Pittsburgh (-3)
The Steelers are a very experienced team that knows how to get the job done in the playoffs. Should they find themselves back in the Super Bowl, that extra experience could make all the difference.
Despite not matching up particularly well against the Packers, Pittsburgh would be a slight favorite in this game.
New York vs. Seattle
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New York (-14)
Pete Carroll against Mark Sanchez would provide an intriguing storyline, but not enough to make this a good Super Bowl game.
Indianapolis vs. Chicago
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Indianapolis (-3)
In a repeat of the Colts' Super Bowl victory just a couple years ago, Indianapolis would again be favored to win this matchup. The most impressive aspect of the Bears is the ability to shut down the run. Well, anyone can shut down the Colts' running game.
The question is whether the Bears can slow down Peyton Manning. The answer would be an overwhelming no.
New York vs. Green Bay
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Green Bay (-1)
Two of Brett Favre's former teams, but no Brett Favre. I think we're all fine with that.
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