NFL Playoff Preview: Baltimore Ravens Will Swoop Down On the Kansas City Chiefs

It’s Day Two of my NFL postseason predictions, and today we’re going to look at a great matchup.  It is a battle of youth against experience.  An essential powerhouse is going against an upstart team that surprised everyone this year.  It’s time to analyze the Baltimore Ravens vs. the Kansas City Chiefs!

Record

Now, regarding the records of both teams, it’s a very interesting matchup.  The Ravens finished the season at 12-4, essentially tied for the division lead with the Pittsburgh Steelers, but Pittsburgh held the tiebreaker and thus got the first round bye, giving Baltimore a wild card berth.

The Chiefs on the other hand, won the AFC West with a 10-6 record.  Keep in mind, for the previous three seasons, the team’s record was 10-38!  This is a young team with equally young talent, and they’re hungry for more than just a division title.

Let’s start our analysis with the Ravens.  They are a great team, but isn’t their record just a little inflated?  Looking at their schedule, I say it is.  Of those 12 wins, nine came against teams that missed the playoffs, and some were much closer than they should have been (case in point, the team’s 37-34 overtime win against Buffalo).

Still, the Chiefs are just as guilty in this regard.  Nine of their 10 wins came against teams that didn’t make the playoffs, and one of them was against the Seattle Seahawks, so it’s basically the same as saying all of their wins came against non-contenders.  Of the six losses, five were against teams that missed the postseason.  Long story short, the Chiefs had an easy schedule and now it’s time for them to face a real team.

Edge: Ravens

Quarterback

Again, at first glance, a very close matchup.  Joe Flacco has led the Ravens to the playoffs in each of his three seasons, even making the AFC Championship game as a rookie.  This season might be the one he punches the team a ticket to Dallas.  In three years since being drafted out of the University of Delaware, Flacco has done nothing but improve.  He set career highs this year in passer rating (93.6), touchdown passes (25) and passing yards (3,622).  With strong protection and a good squad of receivers and backs, he should do well in the postseason.

Now let’s take a look at the Chiefs quarterback, Matt Cassel.  Overall, a very respectable season.  His passer rating was at 93 and he threw 27 touchdown passes (compared to a mere seven interceptions).

Just the same, we must remember that this is Cassel’s first time in the playoffs as a starting QB.  All those years backing up Tom Brady in New England were helpful, I’m sure, but it’s a lot different than actually being in the spotlight.  Also, he’s facing possibly the most dangerous defense in the NFL.  If he can beat them, I will bow before him, but I just don’t see it happening.

Edge: Ravens

Running Game

This is certainly the most interesting of the matchups.  You have one team with a Pro Bowl running back whose backup gets most of the goal-line carries, and another team with a deadly tandem of backs who share the duties and can simply do it all.

On Baltimore’s end, there’s Ray Rice.  He had a great season last year, and had a slight fall in his stats.  He ran for 1,220 yards (compared to last year’s 1,339), and had only five rushing touchdowns (seven last year).  His YPC was a mediocre four, but he still showed up to work every weekend and did what he was paid to do.

His lack of touchdowns can be chalked up to backup Willis McGahee getting most of the goal-line carries, which I don’t really understand because Rice definitely has the power to crash through a goal-line stand.  Still, Baltimore’s running game was good enough to rank at about the middle of the pack in the entire NFL.

Kansas City, on the other hand, is a horse of a different color.  They have a deadly running game in Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles, who split the carries both in and out of the red zone.  What makes these two even more dangerous is the fact that they’re both huge factors in the passing offense as well, especially Charles.  To go with his 1,467 rushing yards with five touchdowns, he also had 468 receiving yards with three touchdowns.

Both Jones and Charles had good enough seasons to give the Chiefs the top rushing offense in the NFL, and they’re going up against a team that had the fifth-best rushing defense.  Still, these two players communicate well enough with their quarterback that they should be just fine against the punishing Baltimore linebackers.

Edge: Chiefs

Passing Offense

In terms of experience, the Ravens have the upper hand.  Their receiving corps is simply unbelievable.  You have two deep threats in Anquan Boldin and T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and two great possession men in Derrick Mason and Donte Stallworth (despite the latter having an extremely off season).  At tight end, Todd Heap provides dangerous hands to go with equally dangerous blocking. 

On the Kansas City side, there’s a great young talent in Dwayne Bowe.  This season, he established himself as Cassel’s go-to guy, pulling in 72 receptions for 1,162 yards and 15 touchdowns.

Still, besides Bowe and Charles, there isn’t really anybody on the Chiefs offense that has established himself as a receiving threat and against a tough Baltimore defense, Chiefs coach Todd Haley can’t rely on Bowe and Charles alone.  And, despite the young talent on defense, expect the Baltimore receivers to run circles around Kansas City’s defense.

Edge: Ravens

Defense

On paper, these two defenses are pretty evenly matched.  Baltimore finished 10th in the league while Kansas City finished 14th.  Let’s take a look at the exact numbers.

Led by veteran linebacker Ray Lewis, Baltimore’s defense allowed about 17 points a game while Kansas City allowed about 20.  For the season, Baltimore scored 87 more points than they allowed, while Kansas City just scored 40 more.

In a sense, while the teams are evenly matched, it comes down to the simple matter of youth vs. experience.  In Kansas City, there are two great young players in defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey and rookie safety Eric Berry.  Dorsey will be a great pass rusher as he matures, and I can see Berry being the leader of the team’s secondary in years to come, but these two can’t carry a defense that leaves something to be desired at linebacker.  Sorry, Derrick Johnson.

Ray Lewis leads Baltimore’s defense and at age 35, he’s still just as punishing a tackler.  He has help at the position as well, courtesy of Terrell Suggs.  While Lewis is more of a run stopper and coverage linebacker, you’ll find Suggs blitzing the quarterback at top speed, and his 11 sacks on the season show it.

In the secondary, you have a great leader in safety Ed Reed.  At age 32 with some injuries slowing him down, he still proves to be a pest to receivers as evidenced by his eight interceptions.  Look for him to be all over Dwayne Bowe come game time.  In fact, look for the Ravens defense to be all over the entire Chiefs offense!

Edge: Ravens

So, despite having home-field advantage and a good young core of talent, I can’t realistically see the Chiefs beating the Ravens.  They rely too much on certain players for certain things on offense, and their defense is just missing one final piece in the linebacker unit.  They’ll put up a fight, but still lose out to the more experienced Baltimore squad.  So, here’s my prediction.

Score prediction: Ravens 20, Chiefs 13