2011 NFL Draft: 10 First Rounders that Could Be Busts

On the all-time bust scale, at one end there is Ryan Leaf and JaMarcus Russell, at the other there is Peyton Manning and Orlando Pace.

The one guy who will be measured most against these former No. 1 picks in the 2011 draft will be Andrew Luck.

I do not, however, have many doubts about Luck.  He seems to be a player who will make a nice transition into the NFL, and could live up to the hype that was built for him.

There are quite a few players in this draft who would either benefit from another year in college, or are just not players who will thrive in the NFL. These players will end up being taken higher than they should be and will end up a disastrous pick for whichever team selects them.

So, after much deliberation and brain-busting, I have narrowed it down to 10 players who have the talent to be drafted in the first round, but also have a good chance of being a bust.

10. Cam Newton, Quarterback, Auburn

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NEW YORK - DECEMBER 11: Cam Newton, quarterback of the Auburn University Tigers, speaks after being awarded the 2010 Heisman Memorial Trophy Award on December 11, 2010 in New York City. (Photo by Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images)

There is still some debate over whether Cam Newton is a first-round talent or not, but a year after Tim Tebow got drafted in the first round, I'm not ruling anything out. That is also the reason I left him so low on the list.

Newton is an excellent college quarterback.  He's a slick runner and decent passer, but an NFL quarterback he is not.

Ever since Michael Vick torched defenders with his legs in the early 2000's, NFL defenses have gotten speedier, making it tougher to be a running-minded quarterback.

With Newton not excelling passing the ball, it is unlikely he will end up as a reliable starting quarterback in the NFL.

9. Robert Quinn, Defensive End, North Carolina

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CHAPEL HILL, NC - SEPTEMBER 19: Robert Quinn #42 of the North Carolina Tar Heels celebrates after a sack with teammate Marvin Austin #9 against the East Carolina Pirates at Kenan Stadium on September 19, 2009 in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. (Photo by St

Robert Quinn is one of many North Carolina players who was suspended for receiving benefits prior to the beginning of the football season.  This suspension did nothing to improve his draft position.

In 2009, Quinn had impressive stats with 52 tackles and 11 sacks, but the biggest problem is all 11 sacks and 33 of his 52 tackles came against the likes of The Citadel, East Carolina, Virginia, Georgia Southern, Duke, Boston College and North Carolina State.

Not too impressive at second glance.

Amidst character problems, and his invisibility in big games, it's hard to see Quinn living up to his hype.

8. Adrian Clayborn, Defensive End, Iowa

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TEMPE, AZ - DECEMBER 28: Defensive end Adrian Clayborn #94 of the Iowa Hawkeyes waves to fans as he walks off the field after defeating the Missouri Tigers in the Insight Bowl at Sun Devil Stadium on December 28, 2010 in Tempe, Arizona. The Hawkeyes defe

If this were 1994, Adrian Clayborn would be one of the top draft prospects in the league.

He is a patient end with active hands and good strength, along with an ability to keep an eye on the runner at all times.  He has decent closing speed, plus, he may be a bit crazy.

Clayborn was charged with assaulting a taxi driver who honked at him in 2009 and pled guilty to misdemeanor disorderly conduct in March 2010.

The biggest problem is that, as a pass rusher, he is not the explosive player NFL teams are looking for these days. He doesn't have the violent Dwight Freeney spin move and doesn't explode into the backfield.  He gets there by wearing down the lineman in front of him.

Plus, Clayborn was born with Erb's Palsy, which may or may not be problematic.

7. Stephen Paea, Defensive Tackle, Oregon State

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PASADENA, CA - NOVEMBER 06: Derrick Coleman #33 of the UCLA Bruins runs from Stephen Paea #54 of the Oregon State Beavers at the Rose Bowl on November 6, 2010 in Pasadena, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

Stephen Paea is a mass of a human being.  He may even be a planet.

At 311 pounds, he is intimidating, and at 6-1, he bulges out out his jersey any time he falls over.

Unfortunately, the NFL has been moving away from drafting the huge defensive linemen of the past, and have moved toward athletic linemen.

As a lineman, Paea is freakishly strong, but he doesn't have the technique of a great lineman down yet, which may hinder him down the line.

He would currently join the ranks of Albert Haynesworth and Vince Wilfork as some of the biggest non-offensive linemen in the NFL.

6. Kyle Rudolph, Tight End, Notre Dame

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SOUTH BEND, IN - OCTOBER 03: Kyle Rudolph #9 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish runs after making a catch against the Washington Huskies on October 3, 2009 at Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend, Indiana. Notre Dame defeated Washington 37-30 in overtime. (Pho

Called the best tight end in a weak year for tight ends, Kyle Rudolph will be drafted too high, without a doubt.

He is a solid blocker, but is hardly a do-it-all tight end, with only 28 catches for 328 yards and three touchdowns this season.

Plus, he had hamstring surgery that cut his season short this year, leaving lingering questions about his durability in the NFL.

Rudolph will not be one of the great rookie tight ends comparable to Aaron Hernandez or Rob Gronkowski this season.

5. Jurrell Casey, Defensive Tackle, USC

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TEMPE, AZ - NOVEMBER 07: Jurrell Casey #91 of the USC Trojans during the college football game against the Arizona State Sun Devils at Sun Devil Stadium on November 7, 2009 in Tempe, Arizona. The Trojans defeated the Devils 14-9. (Photo by Christian Pet

Jurrell Casey is still very much a raw talent, and it will take a skilled hand to craft him into a good NFL defensive lineman.

He's quite a big boy, standing at 6-2, 285 pounds, but is a bit small for a defensive lineman.  He's quite quick and athletic for his size, but that's where the good about Casey ends.

Casey doesn't have the best of instincts and finds himself out of place quite often, overrunning the quarterback from time to time.

He also lacks many defensive moves, relying on his explosiveness and strength to get to the quarterback, which has worked for him thus far, but may hinder him in the NFL.

4. Deunta Williams, Free Safety, North Carolina

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CHESTNUT HILL, MA - NOVEMBER 21: Deunta Williams #27 of the North Carolina Tar Heels carries the ball as Montel Harris #2 of the Boston College Eagles tries to make the stop on November 21, 2009 at Alumni Stadium in Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts. The Tar

Deunta Williams is another one of those players from North Carolina who found himself suspended at the beginning of this season.

Unlike Robert Quinn though, Williams was only suspended for four games, which brings up character questions in yet another draft prospect.

Williams also broke his leg in the Music City Bowl on December 30, which will cause teams to look into his durability and health.

3. Marcell Dareus, Defensive Tackle, Alabama

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TUSCALOOSA, AL - NOVEMBER 13: Defensive lineman Marcell Dareus #57 of the Alabama Crimson Tide watches play against the Mississippi State Bulldogs November 13, 2010 at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. (Photo by Al Messerschmidt/Getty Images)

Marcell Dareus was supposed to be the next big thing for Alabama (literally) after Terrence Cody left a big hole to fill (once again, literally).

Dareus spent the first two games on the sidelines due to a suspension for attending a party held by an agent in Miami, Fla.

After returning from his suspension, Dareus collected two tackles in his first two games and grabbed only 33 throughout his 10 games this season.

His down year is a disappointment to many, but it hasn't hurt his draft stock much. Perhaps it should.

2. Justin Blackmon, Wide Receiver, Oklahoma State

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STILLWATER, OK - SEPTEMBER 05: Wide receiver Justin Blackmon #81 of the Oklahoma State Cowboys warms up before the college football game against the Georgia Bulldogs at Boone Pickens Stadium on September 5, 2009 in Stillwater, Oklahoma. The Cowboys defe

Justin Blackmon had 111 receptions for more than 1,700 yards and 20 touchdowns this season. Wow, those numbers are so ridiculous, they seem too good to be true.

Well, maybe they are too good to be true.

He was the favorite target of Brandon Weeden in the pass-happy Mike Gundy offense.

Blackmon was by far the man most often targeted in that offense, as the next closest receiver had 68 catches and five touchdowns.

His stats are the most ridiculous thing I have seen this season, as he caught at least a touchdown pass every week and went for more than 100 yards.

Later in the year, however, it was taking him more receptions to get up to his huge numbers, meaning he wasn't breaking free as easily once he emerged as the go-to guy in a relatively unknown offense.

Blackmon could easily go on to be a good number two receiver in the NFL, but I don't see him ending up as the main threat on a good team.

1. Jake Locker, Quarterback, Washington

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SEATTLE - OCTOBER 30: Quarterback Jake Locker #10 of the Washington Huskies passes against the Stanford Cardinal on October 30, 2010 at Husky Stadium in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images)

I have heard about this guy for what seems like the past 12 years, but have yet to be impressed by him.

In three full years (he was injured his sophomore season), his best numbers were 2,800 yards, 21 touchdowns and a 58 percent completion percentage, all in his junior year.

People have made excuses for him his whole college career, saying he didn't have the tools around him to put up huge numbers.

Great quarterbacks make the tools around them play to their maximum potential, and if what we have seen from Washington over the past four years is their maximum potential, then I could have played tight end for them.

His draft stock is 50 percent hype, 45 percent hope and five percent production at this point.