Philadelphia Eagles vs. Green Bay Packers: Analysis and Prediction
This Sunday evening, the NFC East champions take the field at Lincoln Financial Field, there is much at stake for both teams. The Green Bay Packers are in town and recently have been playing like the Super Bowl contender they were picked to be in preseason polls. The Eagles will have to bring their best game in all facets to move on to the divisional round. Let's take a look at some of the keys to success in each phase of the game for the Eagles.
Philadelphia on Offense
When the Eagles have the ball, it all starts with the offensive line. Probably their biggest weakness in the preseason continues to be problematic during the season. You know you've got offensive line issues when the favorite statistic during a Philadelphia Eagles broadcast is how often Michael Vick takes a big hit. Aside from Todd Herremans and Jason Peters, this unit is living down to its expectations. Something I have noticed throughout the season, however, is that when Andy Reid decides to commit to the running game early, the offensive line tends to get into a groove.
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Michael Vick is the next key here. Is he really close to 100 percent with that quad injury? If so, he'll need to use his legs to give himself time and to keep the Packers honest. A healthy and sharp Vick, aside from the O-line, is the major X-factor in this matchup.
A few other things to watch when the Eagles have the ball:
* LeSean McCoy: Can he pick up the blitz, and make the most of his touches? The Packers are 18th against the run, so if McCoy provides a spark with his limited touches early, it might convince Andy Reid to keep coming back to it later * Eagles WR's vs. Packers top 5 secondary: Can DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin get open down the field? If not, Vick will need to check down to Brent Celek (when he's not helping out the line), McCoy and Jason Avant * Turnovers: The Eagles have been giving the ball away too often the last few weeks. In the playoffs, those mistakes hurt more. They'll need to do a much better job of protecting the football * Red Zone conversions: When they get down inside the 20, the Eagles need to score touchdowns this week. If they are unable to convert on red zone trips more often than not, we'll be asking "what if" on Monday |
Philadelphia on Defense
On the other side of the ball, the Eagles have been struggling all season. There have been some flashes of potential from their youngsters, but injuries in the last few weeks have limited even those moments. The Vikings game was possibly their best performance of late, giving up just 17 points on defense (the seven points in the first half were scored by the Minnesota defense).
Up front, the Eagles have done a good job of getting after opposing quarterbacks (10th in sacks) and stopping the run. They have been horrendous against the pass, but they are a turnover machine. Here are a few items that will determine how successful the Eagles will be on defense against Green Bay:
* Can the front four get some pressure, without help, on Aaron Rodgers? If they can avoid the need to send extra men and still disrupt Rodgers, it could be helpful to have some linebackers dropping back in coverage * Speaking of those linebackers, how will they do covering the middle of the field? We've seen some nice work from Jamar Chaney the last few weeks covering Jason Witten, Kevin Boss and Visanthe Shiancoe. But he's been burned a few times as well. If Stewart Bradley is ready, that could allow the Eagles to mix and match veteran savvy with speed and athleticism and that would be fun to watch * Cornerback depth is a major concern as well. Of all the great personnel decisions I think the front office and Andy Reid have made over the years, trading Sheldon Brown was not a wise decision. Ellis Hobbs is not a No. 2 cornerback, for starters, and after that Joselio Hanson and Dimitri Patterson are not ready for that role yet. I like most of what I've seen from Patterson, but he makes too many mental mistakes to start in the postseason. I think we'll see both of these guys on the field at times Sunday, with the coaches playing to the strengths of each player * Will we continue to get solid play from the free safety position? Nate Allen was having a superb rookie season when he went down a month ago. Kurt Coleman has stepped in and done a nice job of being a ball-hawk, making good open-field tackles, and decent coverage. Will he continue to play well and maybe even step up his game in coverage so Quinton Mikell can be sent in as a blitzer? I think Coleman has good skills and this is a position we finally have an answer for |
Special Teams
Bobby April was brought in to instill discipline on special teams, especially in kickoff coverage. One of the frustrations this year has been seeing the Eagles score, kickoff and watch the opposing team consistently return the ball to the 35 or 40-yard line. David Akers is having a monster season, booming kickoffs into the end zone, but when that doesn't occur the Eagles struggle in coverage. Some other areas to improve heading into the Wild Card Round:
* Kickoff returns: When was the last time we saw the Eagles return a kickoff for more than 10 to 15 yards? * DeSean on Punt Return Team: We need to get Jackson involved in every way possible at this time of year * Sav Rocca: He's got to have a great game to help our defense with the field position battle. Sunday he badly missed a punt that went off his foot and only about 20-30 yards. None of that will be sufficient against Green Bay |
Coaching
All season, the Eagles have predictably started games the same way. Vick fakes a handoff to LeSean McCoy, rolls out and fires the ball downfield to DeSean Jackson. The last time it worked was against the Redskins. Now, teams are prepared for that early strike so let's see if the Eagles coaching staff comes up with something special this week. Maybe a draw to McCoy, a flea-flicker, a reverse, a Vick run, DeSean passing the ball. Something different.
Here are the keys for the coaching staff to ensure they "put players in position to make plays" this Sunday:
* Clock Management: This has not been a particular problem this season, but it's that time of year when you need those timeouts. Andy Reid has to use his challenges wisely and manage the clock well so that if they need timeouts at the end of the half or game, they'll be there * Run-Pass Ratio: As was mentioned earlier, the Packers are fifth against the pass and 18th against the run. The Eagles are top 10 in rushing yards per game this season. I'd like to see them get LeSean McCoy just a few more touches—he is probably the least banged-up player on the team, and I suspect there is a method to the madness in not utilizing him as heavily down the stretch. Expect to see a heavy dose of the Eagles running game this week * On defense, Shawn McDermott has to show that he can dial up the blitz in effective ways. It seems like every time they send six or seven guys, they get burned. I'd like to see them disguise those a little bit better and even back out into coverage to try to confuse Aaron Rodgers |
Overall, I think these two teams are evenly matched and this game comes down to turnovers and field position. If Michael Vick can protect the football better than he has been, and the defense can create a few big plays of their own, the Eagles will be in position to advance to the divisional round of the playoffs.
My early-in-the-week gut feeling is that the Packers are going to win a tight game, call it 30-24.
With that said, what are your predictions for this Sunday's game?

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