NHL Power Rankings: Third Installment (Jan. 2, 2011)
Why read my power rankings? While it may be a tiresome topic, I feel like I bring a unique approach to my rankings.
Rather than simply ranking the teams 1-30, I break them up into six categories:
Cup Favorites: Teams that should surprise no one were they to go all the way. The class of the league.
Cup Contenders: Teams that will surprise many if they go all the way, but shouldn't. Conference powers that are expected to at least make it out of the first round.
Sleepers: Teams that should make the playoffs, and are equipped to pull off a surprising playoff run. Last year, the Philadelphia Flyers dominated this section of my rankings.
Bubble Teams: Teams that may or may not make the playoffs. A bubble team is talented enough to make the playoffs, but is not (or is not playing like) a legitimate threat.
Longshots: Teams that are not likely to make the playoffs. If they get hot, they could squeeze in as a No. 7 or 8 seed, but are fringe teams at best.
Bottom Feeders: Teams that are nowhere near contention and almost guaranteed a high draft pick. Even early in the season, landing in this category means that the playoffs are very unlikely.
Given this system, my rankings may not exactly reflect how a team has played to this point. A team may be playing over their heads, and land in the Cup Contenders category even though they have more points than a Cup Favorite.
A team may be placed in the Sleepers category even if they are barely in playoff position, because, in my opinion, that team has underachieved to this point.
In the end, these rankings are more subjective than many, as there is no formula. But I believe that the only point of this type of writing is to stir up a discussion; formulaic power rankings lull most to sleep. As I'm probably doing right now.
Cup Favorites
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1. Detroit Red Wings- Detroit has been number one in all three of my installments so far this season. I wonder if that has anything to do with them sitting atop the West untouched for over two months.
2. Vancouver Canucks- If anyone is going to unseat Detroit, it's likely to be the Canucks, and soon. A win today has them tied with Detroit, Philly and Pittsburgh for an NHL-best 53 points.
3. Pittsburgh Penguins- The fact that a 5-4-1 record in their last 10 games has brought them "all the way down" to a tie with Philly atop the East shows how hot this team was. Expect them to catch fire again before long.
4. Philadelphia Flyers- The league's best road team and best offensive team. A statement win in Detroit today solidifies Philly as one of the four teams who are clearly better than everyone else.
Cup Contenders
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5. San Jose Sharks- The Sharks have been terribly inconsistent and battling injuries all season long, and still find themselves at No.4 in west after winning six of eight. With key parts finally getting healthy and on the same page, San Jose should finally start gaining some separation and gearing up for another deep playoff run.
6. Boston Bruins- Boston continues to play the best defense in the East and, with a little more effort in "winnable" games (home games, games vs. sub-.500 teams), they should be able to finish higher than last year (6th).
7. Washington Capitals- As much as everyone jumped the gun on the Capitals demise, four out of five teams are still looking up at the Capitals' 51 points. Ovie appears to be saving his best for last this year. Look out.
8. Los Angeles Kings- The league's best defensive team, which alone makes the Kings a contender. However, another playmaker/goal scorer could be added and should be if the King's want the 2011 Cup.
Sleepers
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9. Dallas Stars- The Stars are the No.9 team and the top sleeper for the second straight time. What will change Dallas from under the radar to sexy cup pick? Time. With all the shuffling going on out west, Dallas has spent a good chunk of time sitting just above it all, atop the pacific. If they stay consistent, home ice in the first round will wake up the sleepers.
10. Tampa Bay Lightning- Third best in the East (51 points) despite being outscored this season? Unlike Dallas, time won't heal this group. For Tampa to hold onto their high-seeding, they'll need to be an aggressive shopper this trading deadline and beef up their defense/goaltending.
11. New York Rangers- This is New York's third appearance as a sleeper, but unlike the two teams above them, the Rangers are a true sleeper—they aren't dominating points-wise (in 7th currently) and don't need to be. They look like this year's Flyers—a talented, inconsistent team that just needs to make the playoffs, because once they do, they can beat anyone.
12. Montreal Canadiens- A rough patch has knocked Montreal all the way down to 8th in the East, which may just be what the team needs—a wake-up call. If management can bring in some more offense at the deadline, the Habs could get hot and leave complacent contenders in the dust.
13. Colorado Avalanche- In the ultra-tight West, stats tell more of the story than points. Colorado is 5th in the NHL in 5-on-5 ratio (1.2/1), and that much even-strength dominance separates this team from the pack of bubble teams.
14. St. Louis Blues- The Blues, unlike Colorado, are not especially promising statistically and, as a result, should be a bubble team. But then you look up at the standings and see them tied with Los Angeles. They are best in the West with 14 home wins, and that should keep them in the hunt longer than most others.
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Bubble Teams
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15. Atlanta Thrashers- There are only two Eastern teams in this category, so essentially these are the two Eastern teams that may or may not make the playoffs. The Thrashers currently sit seven points above Carolina, but they have played five more games.
16. Chicago Blackhawks- I was criticized for putting the defending champs here in my first installment back in mid-November, but now, seven weeks later, Chicago is still far from a safe playoff pick. In fact, when considering points per game (the only logical way to interpret standings), Chicago is 13th in the West, just behind Minnesota.
17. Phoenix Coyotes- The Coyotes, like the Blackhawks, are following up a huge 2009-10 season with a campaign that could leave them out of the playoffs. Unlike the Blackhawks, the problems go beyond injuries, inconsistency and lack of effort—they just may not be good enough in an improved West.
18. Nashville Predators- The Predators won five straight and seemed to be emerging from the muddled pack out west before dropping five straight (all in regulation) immediately to follow. With two straight wins now, they are back in 9th, but they need to pick up points more consistently to make the playoffs.
19. Carolina Hurricanes- Who thought 3rd and 4th place in the Southeast Division would still be relevant halfway through this season? The 'Canes are playing great hockey right now and are the only team outside the top eight that seems to understand the goal is to go from outside to inside that group.
20. Anaheim Ducks- The Ducks are currently 5th in the West, but points per game wise are in 11th. This team is more talented than any other bubble team out West besides Chicago and because of this appear to have an open door into the playoffs. But a .89/1 even strength ratio begs to differ.
21. Columbus Blue Jackets- The one team hanging around in the West that everyone agrees will eventually go away. Yet points per game wise, they still sit above Chicago and Anaheim, so to call them a longshot just yet may be jumping the gun.
Longshots
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22. Buffalo Sabres- Sabre fans still won't admit it, but the fact is that last year's No.3 seed will not return to the playoffs this year. The Sabres have no identity, no leadership, and no real indicators that they'll turn things around.
23. Minnesota Wild- Although the Wild are ahead of Chicago in points per game and as a result should be a bubble team, but they're a -14, which is 6th worst in the NHL, and they are outshot by seven nightly. The D and Nick Backstrom will fatigue more and more, and in the end, Minnesota will not be part of the tight race out west.
24. Florida Panthers- The Panthers are outscoring opponents this year by six, yet find themselves only managing a point per game. Superman Thomas Vokoun deserves better than a 9.5 percent power play. I'll say it again—he will be traded this February.
25. Calgary Flames- A four-game winning streak has the Flames out of the bottom feeders category, but they still are looking up at 13 teams out West. It's nice for the fans to see some wins, but the fact that this team needs to sell fiercely at the deadline and begin rebuilding is still 100 percent true.
26. Ottawa Senators- Ottawa is dreadful. They are being outscored by 31 this year, and their spot in 10th will be gone once some teams catch up to them in games played. Their spot in the longshots category may disappear with it, as they are among the league's weakest teams without question.
Bottom Feeders
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27. Toronto Maple Leafs- The Leafs have continued business as usual and played awfully this year. For the sake of the league and the future of the franchise, a trade of Tomas Kaberle better be in order.
28. Edmonton Oilers- The Oilers have separated themselves from the rest of the West. Nine points separate 9th from 1st. Six points separate 14th from 8th. And eight points separate 15th from 14th.
29. New York Islanders- Wins over Detroit and Philly this week have given Islanders fans something to cheer about. Which is really nice for them.
30. New Jersey Devils- This is getting sad. Karma doesn't usually go this far. If these guys met the Islanders in the Playoff, I'd take New York in five games.
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