NFL Playoff Schedule 2011: Who Do the New England Patriots Want To Avoid?
With every game of the 2010 regular season in the books, teams are beginning to look forward to the playoffs and Super Bowl XLV.
That's where everyone's attention will be on for the next month...except for the teams that are out of the playoffs, who are already counting the days until the 2011 NFL Draft.
The New England Patriots locked up the No. 1 seed back in Week 16 against the Buffalo Bills, and are now on a bye week as they wait for their playoff scenario to unfold.
Many fans and analysts are skeptical of this Patriots team because they have relied so much on the performance of Tom Brady and the offense. Those people think that a tough defense and a hard-nosed running game will stop the Patriot reign. Others think it's a top-tier quarterback that would best do the trick.
Here's my ranking of the potential playoff opponents for the Patriots this season, from the team they most want to face to the one they most want to avoid.
5. Kansas City Chiefs
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The cast of characters that involves several former New England Patriots coordinators and a quarterback may seem like a recipe for disaster at first, but the Patriots have played well against the run, especially with Brandon Spikes in the lineup.
This is no ordinary rushing attack, though; this is Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones, the league's No. 1-ranked duo in both carries and yards.
Losing Ron Brace hurts, but the Patriots got back Myron Pryor for Sunday's game, and would likely have Mike Wright back, as well.
Because of Romeo Crennel's experience with the Patriots, though, his defensive style is similar to New England's. I think it's safe to say no one knows New England's style of defense better than Bill Belichick.
Patriots key to victory: Expect one of those "death by a thousand cuts" type performances that PatsPropaganda.com's Mike Dussault talks about.
4. New York Jets
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It's hard to forget a loss like 45-3. It's hard to forget how easy Tom Brady made it look, too.
It's also important to note that the Jets have been a good road team this year, going 6-2 in those games. They also have a defense that has shut down the Patriots before. I can imagine Rex Ryan would have his guys pretty riled up to play New England one more time.
They rank ninth overall against the pass, but their DVOA is just 15th in the league.
It is, however, the play of Mark Sanchez that will ultimately determine the outcome of this game. The Patriots proved they have some of the keys to beating the Jets' defense in that big 45-3 win, and it could turn into a shootout. Sanchez has proven he can keep up, even against the stingy Bears defense.
Patriots key to victory: Tom Brady and Bill Belichick should go ahead and start looking for any new wrinkles in the Jets' defense.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
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The Steelers went 7-1 on the road this season. The 20-10 loss came against the New Orleans Saints in a game where the Saints outscored Pittsburgh 14-7 in the fourth quarter.
As usual, the Pittsburgh Steelers featured one of the league's best defensive units.
The Steelers rank 14th overall against the pass; they do, however, have the third overall pass defense in DVOA. They're even better against the run, where they rank first overall both overall and in DVOA.
It is a unit, however, that has been exploited by Tom Brady time and time again. The Patriots have the huge mental advantage of the 39-26 drubbing they laid on the Steelers at Heinz Field just under two months ago. Tom Brady went a surgical 30-for-43 for 350 yards and three touchdowns.
The Steelers are tough on defense and tough on the road. Still, the Patriots (namely, Tom Brady) have dominated the Steelers of late, and have dominated at home, too.
Patriots key to victory: The defensive line will need to create similar pressure to when they were able to stop the Steelers in their last meeting. They'll also need to make sure they bring him down and don't let him get outside the pocket.
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2. Indianapolis Colts
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The storied rivalry lives on. Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning. The postseason last belonged to the Colts when they met in the AFC Championship, a scenario that would happen again since the Colts are the No. 3 seed.
Led by Manning, it never seems to matter who's playing receiver. The Colts are usually able to figure it out by the end of the game to at least make a push. With the first overall pass attack and the sixth-ranked pass attack in DVOA, the Colts have the ability to exploit weaknesses in the Patriots pass defense.
Weaknesses that haven't been tested recently due to lesser competition. Weaknesses that were last tested against Matt Flynn and the Green Bay Packers to the tune of 251 yards, three touchdowns and one pick. Chances are, if Flynn could spot it, so can Manning.
The Patriots offense has fallen flat in the fourth quarter against the Colts recently, but it's hard to ignore that ultimately, Brady has played very well overall against them. He's completed 71.6 percent of his passes for 561 yards, five touchdowns and one interception in his past two games against them. With the offense on an historic roll, he could add to those totals against the Colts.
Ultimately, this one, as always, will likely come down to the game's final possession.
Patriots key to victory: The rush attack will have to do what it did for much of the regular season meeting, when they had 165 yards and two touchdowns on the day. Keeping the ball out of Peyton Manning's hands has proven an effective formula to beat him in the past.
1. Baltimore Ravens
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Swagger. And I don't mean Old Spice. Ray Lewis adds it to the Baltimore Ravens.
This group will draw confidence from their 33-14 win over the Patriots at Gillette Stadium in last year's postseason. Needless to say, that game proved that this team has a winning formula for beating New England—a hard-hitting, disruptive defense and a quarterback who's smarter than he is athletic.
Baltimore features a pass defense that ranks sixth in DVOA and a run defense that ranks fifth.
Joe Flacco has had some success against the Patriots the last time they played, going 27-of-35 for 285 yards and two touchdowns. He has come along, and the Ravens pass attack ranks fifth in the league in DVOA.
Patriots key to victory: Stop the rare blitzing from the Ravens, and prevent quick pressure from creating a snowball effect against the offense and all their momentum from the regular season.
In The End, They're All Good
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Pardon me for sounding Belichickian, but any team poses a big challenge to the Patriots this year. Unlike the NFC, which features a 7-9 team headed to the playoffs, every team in the AFC is talented and well-coached. No matter what, they'll all be exciting games to watch.
The Patriots have won the games they've needed to all season long, but I wouldn't discount any of these teams from pulling off a win. The Patriots will simply have to do what they've done all season up to this point—take it one game at a time.
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