NFL Picks Week 17: Last Minute Predictions for the Final Week of the Season
The NFL is on the verge of completing a highly entertaining regular season that's seen numerous great performances, surprising developments and emergent talents. The majority of the league's teams will play their final games of the year tomorrow, as they'll be on the outside looking in to NFL postseason play and the march to Super Bowl XLV in Dallas.
But there is plenty still at stake heading into Week 17 of the NFL schedule, even for the league's worst teams. Of course the majority of the focus will land on the teams still scratching and clawing for playoff spots, but all 16 games scheduled for the final Sunday of the regular season carry varying levels of importance.
So we'll take you through each of the games scheduled for Week 17 and take a look at what all 32 teams can expect from their final regular season games.We'll look back at what's already taken place through the first 16 weeks of games, while also looking ahead to either the 2011 season (providing there's no work stoppage) or for 12 lucky teams, the playoffs.
Click through for predictions for all 16 of this week's games, as well as other prognostications to get you ready for the league's final week of full regular season action.
Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons
1 of 16
Why the Panthers Could Win: Perhaps the Falcons' starters are all felled by food poisoning after heavy New Year's Day meals? Or maybe Jimmy Clausen's resolution for 2011 is to play every game like he's facing the Arizona Cardinals, which was his one truly impressive performance under center for the Panthers?
It's possible the Panthers are driven to win one last game for their officially departing head coach John Fox, but I think it will take otherworldly or at least off-field intervention for Carolina to upset the NFC South-leading Falcons. They have been anemic on offense all year, and their defense was gouged by the Steelers last week, and the Falcons in the two teams' previous meeting this year.
Why the Falcons Could Win: They have tons of talent on offense and are coming off a disappointing loss at home to the New Orleans Saints, a game in which they turned the ball over on the goal line and failed to truly capitalize on mistakes made by Saints' quarterback Drew Brees. Running back Michael Turner ripped the Panthers apart in the teams' previous meeting (112 rushing yards, three touchdowns), and the team rarely loses at home, much less loses two games in a row at home.
Prediction: The Panthers get bombarded by the Falcons offensive firepower, and Jimmy Clausen is forced into turnovers by an opportunistic Atlanta defense. The Falcons know that if they win, they wrap up home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs, so I see no way for them to suffer enough of a letdown to lose to the lowly Panthers. John Fox will end his reign as coach of Carolina with another disappointing loss.
Final Score: Atlanta Falcons 35, Carolina Panthers 17
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns
2 of 16
Why the Steelers Could Win: They know what's at stake, as if Pittsburgh wins on the road in Cleveland, they'll clinch the AFC North title and a first-round bye through to the divisional round. They also can look back on their crippling loss to the Browns during the 2009 regular season in Week 14 for motivation and know they'll need to play all out to finish the job and clinch a week of rest.
The offensive line has struggled, but quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has still played well, avoiding turnovers and completing a high percentage of his passes. Another big effort from Big Ben, plus a stingy job of the defense in containing Peyton Hillis out of the Browns backfield, and the Steelers should celebrate a divisional crown.
Why the Browns Could Win: Eric Mangini is probably on the way out as head coach, so he has nothing to realistically lose in terms of going all out and pushing his players to send him out with one more victory. They also have seen their rookie quarterback Colt McCoy make strides, enough that he might be able to step up and play one last great game in 2010 before heading into an offseason of change in Cleveland.
The Browns' best chance of winning rests on running back Peyton Hillis' shoulders. He's struggled in recent weeks, but if he can find holes in the usually tight Steelers defense, it could open up chances for Cleveland on offense, and they may be able to spoil the Steelers playoff positioning with a surprise win.
Prediction: Cleveland has shown glimmers of strong offensive performance with Hillis and McCoy, but the Steelers' defense is just too strong for the Cleveland duo to overcome. I expect a big performance from Ben Roethlisberger as well as Pittsburgh running back Rashard Mendenhall, and I think the Steelers win comfortably and wrap up a bye and a division title.
Final Score: Pittsburgh Steelers 28, Cleveland Browns 14
Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions
3 of 16
Why the Vikings Could Win: Joe Webb starts at quarterback again and plays the way he did against the Philadelphia Eagles on Tuesday night, and Adrian Peterson continues to be one of the top two or three running backs in the NFL. Yes, it's still possible Brett Favre limps out onto the field one last time. But if the Vikings want to finish the year on a high note, they should plug Webb in regardless of Favre's status and let him continue to show what he can do under center. The Lions have a soft defense that has given up plenty of points and yardage on the season, and Webb looked dynamic on Tuesday night. Riding he and Peterson on offense could deliver another Vikings victory.
Why the Lions Could Win: The Vikings defense emptied their tank stopping Michael Vick and the Eagles' high-powered offense earlier this week, and their secondary remains extremely depleted by injury. Shaun Hill has done a nice job filling in at quarterback for the Lions, and if his elite receiver Calvin Johnson is able to play, I could see the Lions passing game clicking against the Vikings. A big game from either Maurice Morris or Jahvid Best would also help Detroit's chances of closing the season with an improbable four-game winning streak.
Prediction: The Lions are hot and riding a rarely-seen winning streak, but I think the Vikings defense is finishing strong after the Eagles game. Combine that with the fact that Calvin Johnson is banged up and may not be able to offer much for Detroit, and I think the Vikings have too much, on both offense and defense, for the Lions to handle. I think this should be a close game between two teams looking to end the year on a high note, but I ultimately think Minnesota pulls out a second straight road win.
Final Score: Minnesota Vikings 23, Detroit Lions 17
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Oakland Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs
4 of 16
Why the Raiders Could Win: Darren McFadden is healthy and able to go in Week 17, which would be a huge boost to a Raiders offense that relies greatly on his running to eat up yards and break off big plays. They could still pull out a win if McFadden is rested or unavailable altogether thanks to the big-play potential of Jacoby Ford, who has been a one-man highlight reel at times this year. Quarterback Jason Campbell has mastered the short-passing approach to running the Oakland offense, and if the Raiders are able to break off a few screen plays or big runs, they could emerge victorious in a bitter rivalry game.
Why the Chiefs Could Win: They lean heavily on Jamaal Charles and look for him to repeat the back-to-back dominant rushing and receiving performances he's posted in Weeks 15 and 16. Matt Cassel continues to lead the offense in an efficient and occasionally explosive manner, and the Chiefs defense bottles up the Oakland running game that's the catalyst for much of their offense. They'll also want to insure that they end up the No. 4 seed in the AFC playoffs, giving them a home playoff game in Round 1.
Prediction: The Chiefs have the most to play for, but I think the Raiders will go all out to win against their biggest divisional rivals and come in at 8-8 for the season. Yes, it's a meaningless game for them, but it's also not hugely important for Kansas City. I think the Chiefs suffer a bit of a letdown as they look ahead to their first-round game. I think McFadden plays and has another big day for Oakland, and the Chiefs offense slumps a bit as they ease off running Jamaal Charles to keep him fresh for the playoffs.
Final Score: Oakland Raiders 27, Kansas City Chiefs 24
Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots
5 of 16
Why the Dolphins Could Win: The absurdity of their 6-1 road record versus their 1-7 home record, and that it just seems perfect for them to finish the strangest 8-8 year imaginable by going to 7-1 on the road. Plus their defense has been extremely solid all year behind dominant pass rusher Cameron Wake, and they have two running backs capable of breaking off some big plays and controlling the ground game in Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. Plus, they are going up against a team with nothing to play for that will no doubt rest their regulars in anticipation of the playoffs.
Why the Patriots Could Win: Coach Bill Belichick leaves enough regulars in for long enough to open up a comfortable lead, and the second stringers don't squander away their inherited prosperity. It's easier said than done against a very tough Dolphins defense that will potentially be playing for their coach's job, but it's very possible. Even if the New England starters (such as Tom Brady, Wes Welker and their top defensive partners) sit for much of the game. The team is so deep that it wouldn't be surprising to see someone like Danny Woodhead have a huge game or Brandon Tate and so on.
Prediction: Belichick saw Wes Welker tear his ACL in Week 17 a year ago, so I think he proceeds with much more caution this season in terms of resting his starters. The Patriots have the top seed wrapped up in the AFC, so I think they ease off the gas pedal, and the Dolphins defense steps up yet again and drives them to an ugly road win.
Final Score: Miami Dolphins 23, New England Patriots 17
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints
6 of 16
Why the Buccaneers Could Win: Josh Freeman had an outstanding game a week ago against the Seattle Seahawks, and Tampa Bay is playing for their playoff lives, even if their odds of cracking the playoff picture seem long. They are playing before the two teams they have to scoreboard watch (the New York Giants and Green Bay Packers). So they will have all sorts of motivation to go all out and let the chips fall where they may. They also have a great running back in LeGarrette Blount, who has enjoyed great games in recent weeks—if he finds space, the Saints could be in trouble.
Why the Saints Could Win: The Saints still have a chance to be the NFC's top seed and NFC South champions, if the Falcons blow their game against the Panthers, so they still have something to play for. They also saw their defense step up a week ago and shut down Falcons running back Michael Turner, while also greatly limiting the damage done by quarterback Matt Ryan. They will look for a similar performance against another strong passer/rusher duo that the Buccaneers feature.
Prediction: This is going to be a hard-nosed, close game from beginning to end. Tampa Bay got blown out by the Saints earlier in the year, but I think this Buccaneers team has matured and improved even in the face of a number of brutal injuries they've suffered to key players. I think given the motivations of both teams, it's inevitable this will come down to the wire. And I think Drew Brees' experience in big moments gives the Saints the edge. Although, if the Saints see the scoreboard showing a huge Falcons lead over the Panthers, I could see Sean Payton resting his starters in the second half knowing they've lost a shot at the NFC South title and a first-round bye.
Final Score: New Orleans Saints 31, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27
Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets
7 of 16
Why the Bills Could Win: Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick's knee is healthy enough for him to start. And he takes advantage of the Jets second-string defense to recapture the magic he had working for himself earlier in the year, putting up big passing numbers on a Darrelle Revis-less Jets secondary. That means his receivers, like Steve Johnson, stop dropping passes and get on the same page with Fitzpatrick. Given the Jets have nothing to play for besides finishing the regular season on a high note, the Bills could find themselves in a position to win.
Why the Jets Could Win: The second-string defensive players step up and keep the pressure on a turnover-prone Bills team and put points on the board either through defensive touchdowns or ideal field position. Mark Sanchez and the first-string offense probably won't see the field for very long. But, if the backups are put in the right positions, the Jets could still put enough points on the board to pull out a win in their home finale. They're pretty much certain to be heading out on the road in the Wild Card round of playoffs, so they could be inspired to give their home fans a going-away win.
Prediction: The Bills have more to play for in terms of getting a win and potentially saving their coach's job, but I think ultimately, the Jets still have too much talent to lose this game at home. Even with their subs in the game, I think the Jets defense will smother the Bills offense and end up making the difference in this game.
Final Score: New York Jets 28, Buffalo Bills 17
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens
8 of 16
Why the Bengals Could Win: Carson Palmer plays another great game at quarterback on the heels of a solid performance against the San Diego Chargers a week ago. The Bengals young defense shuts down Joe Flacco and the Ravens offense along the same lines as how they handled Philip Rivers last week. They also limit the damage done by elite rusher Ray Rice and maybe take advantage of Baltimore's second stringers possibly coming on in the second half if the Steelers open up a lead in their game against the Browns and give the Ravens nothing to play for.
Why the Ravens Could Win: Ray Rice takes over the game both on the ground and in the passing game and gets something like 25 touches, giving him a chance to make some big plays and carry the offense yet again. Given the fact the Ravens could still secure a first-round bye and a division title if the Steelers lose to the Browns, I expect Rice and Joe Flacco to have a big role in the game. I think they both have solid efforts against a young and inconsistent Cincinnati defense.
Prediction: The Ravens jump out to a lead knowing if they win, they'll have a shot at a division crown. But the Steelers take care of their business. John Harbaugh pulls the key players like Rice and Flacco in the second half, and the Bengals offense gets opportunistic and makes a game of it. But the Ravens, I think, will ultimately hang on and win their regular season finale.
Final Score: Baltimore Ravens 27, Cincinnati Bengals 21
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans
9 of 16
Why the Jaguars Could Win: They get huge efforts from backup quarterback Trent Edwards as well as second-string runner Rashad Jennings. The Jaguars have the world to play for considering they could still win the AFC South with a win coupled with a Colts loss. But, they've suffered too many injuries in recent weeks, thanks to Maurice Jones-Drew's knee injury and David Garrard's finger surgery. It will take a surprising showing from their offensive reserves to pull out a road win against a team looking to save face at home.
Why the Texans Could Win: Arian Foster has another big day on the ground and quarterback Matt Schaub survives life without Andre Johnson and carves up an unimpressive Jaguars pass defense. The Texans are out of it, but their coach is in the crosshairs of job speculation. I expect their offense to come out and have a big day against a depleted Jaguars team.
Prediction: While the Jags have their season to play for, I don't know if they have enough talent to overcome all the injuries they've suffered in the last few weeks to pull out a road win. Houston still has one of the best running backs in the game in Foster, and Matt Schaub has played extremely well. I think he posts a big day even without Andre Johnson in the lineup.
Final Score: Houston Texans 31, Jacksonville Jaguars 20
New York Giants vs. Washington Redskins
10 of 16
Why the Giants Could Win: Their two running backs, Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs, actually hold onto the football and carve up a suspect Washington Redskins run defense. Quarterback Eli Manning overcomes the absence of top receiver Hakeem Nicks and continues to build his chemistry with Mario Manningham as a deep threat. The defense stops the bleeding after two straight weeks of being torn apart by the Eagles and Packers and clamps down on Rex Grossman and the underwhelming Redskins' offense.
Why the Redskins Could Win: Ryan Torain has a big game on the ground against an inconsistent Giants' running defense. The offensive line protects Rex Grossman and gives him time to try and find Santana Moss down the field. Also, if the Giants see the Packers with a big lead in their simultaneous game against the Bears, they seem capable of going in the tank and rolling over for the Redskins, who will be looking to play spoilers and end their year with a home win.
Prediction: The Giants have to win to even have a shot at a playoff spot, pending the Packers/Bears game. I think they come out strong early and put up a nice lead in the first half. But, I would expect the second half to decide this game. If the Giants keep up the intensity and pressure the quarterback, I think they'll pull out a win and let fate decide their playoff chances.
Final Score: New York Giants 28, Washington Redskins 21
Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles
11 of 16
Why the Cowboys Could Win: The Eagles will be resting their biggest playmakers on offense and defense, since they are locked into the No. 3 seed in the NFC playoffs no matter the outcome of their Week 17 game. The Cowboys are forced to turn to third-string quarterback Stephen McGee, but they still have Miles Austin out wide and Felix Jones and Tashard Choice in the backfield, which may be enough firepower on offense to outpace a potentially Kevin Kolb-led Eagles attack.
Why the Eagles Could Win: Even if quarterback Michael Vick and top receiver DeSean Jackson sit out the entirety of this game, the Eagles still have LeSean McCoy in the backfield plus other weapons on offense that backup quarterback Kevin Kolb could utilize. Their defense will also be looking to redeem itself for a letdown performance against Adrian Peterson, Joe Webb and the Minnesota Vikings in Week 16.
Prediction: Stephen McGee will have a tough test going on the road to Philadelphia, and I don't think he'll lead the Cowboys to a win in his first career start. Even with the second-string Philadelphia players in there, I think the Eagles finish the year with a win and head into the playoffs with some added momentum.
Final Score: Philadelphia Eagles 24, Dallas Cowboys 17
Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers
12 of 16
Why the Cardinals Could Win: John Skelton has done a nice job under center for the Cardinals after taking over as the starting quarterback, and the 49ers defense has struggled against opposing passing games all year long. Beanie Wells has also improved little by little as a running option for the Cardinals late in the season, making a decent tandem with Tim Hightower out of the Arizona backfield. And the Cardinals are coming off a comeback victory on Christmas night, giving their young offense some momentum heading into Week 17.
Why the 49ers Could Win: Mike Singletary was mercifully relieved of his coaching duties after the Niners were officially bounced from playoff contention a week ago at the hands of the St. Louis Rams. So perhaps his players will be motivated to go out and win given they managed to get their coach fired. Alex Smith is also scheduled to start, presumably his last game as a 49ers quarterback. The former No. 1 pick will have one last chance to have something positive come from his time in the Bay Area.
Prediction: This has all the makings of an ugly, mistake-filled game that hinges on which defense can make the most of a key turnover. Arizona has been dreadful in terms of allowing yardage and points as a defense, but they've somehow managed to find a way to be great at scoring defensive touchdowns. I think Alex Smith has one more stinker left in him before he leaves San Francisco, and Arizona comes away with an ugly win.
Final Score: Arizona Cardinals 22, San Francisco 49ers 12
Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers
13 of 16
Why the Bears Could Win: If the Falcons and Saints both manage to lose in their early games and leave an opening for the Bears to sneak in and claim the top seed in the NFC playoffs. Otherwise, I expect the Bears to rest all their key starters on offense, whether it's after a quarter or two, or through the entire game. Without Jay Cutler or Matt Forte out there, I don't see much of a chance of the Bears winning this game, which is a must-win for Green Bay.
Why the Packers Could Win: Aaron Rodgers is back and seemed to have not missed a beat during Green Bay's decimation of the New York Giants a week ago. He was in sync with top wide receiver Greg Jennings, and the Packers offense looked unstoppable as they moved within one win of a playoff spot. Their defense, led by linebacker Clay Matthews, was opportunistic and ball-hawkish, forcing a number of Giants turnovers and giving Rodgers and company a short field to work with. Look for more of the same in Week 17 in a home game that the Packers have to win.
Prediction: The Bears may make a game of it early on by leaving Cutler out there and having their defensive starters in the game, but as soon as it gets close to or past halftime, I expect Green Bay to totally take this game over and cruise to an easy playoff-clinching victory.
Final Score: Green Bay Packers 38, Chicago Bears 20
Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts
14 of 16
Why the Titans Could Win: Chris Johnson is capable of dominating the Indianapolis Colts defense, as he did three weeks ago by posting 179 total yards from scrimmage in a game the Colts still ultimately won. With Johnson potentially gouging the Colts weak run defense, things could open up for veteran quarterback Kerry Collins, who still has receiver Kenny Britt to target on big passing plays. It would take quite the effort from Johnson, Collins and Britt to keep up with a Colts offense that seems to be finding its rhythm late in the season.
Why the Colts Could Win: They have to win in order to clinch a playoff spot, the first time they're playing a meaningful game in Week 17 since 2006. If they lose, they could realistically miss the playoffs for the first time in what feels like an eternity. With that said, Peyton Manning has played strong football in the midst of the Colts' current three-game winning streak. I would expect that to continue, and the Indianapolis defense always plays better at home. Kerry Collins is a statue in the pocket, so I expect Dwight Freeney to be after him all day long.
Prediction: The Colts, at home, in a must-win game against a non-playoff team just playing for pride. Seems like a very safe bet to expect Peyton Manning to pull out a win. I think the Colts passing game has a huge day behind Manning, especially now that he has all his weapons (save Dallas Clark) at his disposal.
Final Score: Indianapolis Colts 35, Tennessee Titans 17
San Diego Chargers vs. Denver Broncos
15 of 16
Why the Chargers Could Win: They sealed their fate in missing the playoffs with their surprising loss a week ago to the Cincinnati Bengals and will now look to finish above .500 and save some face after a very disappointing season. Philip Rivers is still a threat to hang a big passing game on a defense despite being without a lot of his key players on offense. The Broncos defense is a big weakness, and the Chargers offense is still high-powered despite injuries.
Why the Broncos Could Win: Tim Tebow is living up, somewhat, to his expectations as a dual-threat quarterback. He has looked strong in his two starts under center for Denver, breaking off big runs and making the occasional timely throw when necessary. Closing the season at home, the momentum seems to be shifted to Denver in this game, behind the arm and legs of Tebow.
Prediction: I think Tebow suffers his first tough game in the NFL thanks to a still-strong Chargers defense that is capable of forcing turnovers. The Chargers still do have a potent attack, and Denver's defense is overmatched in most facets of the game, so I expect San Diego to put some big numbers on the board on offense. The Chargers may not be going to the playoffs, but I think they head into the offseason with a solid win in Denver.
Final Score: San Diego Chargers 30, Denver Broncos 14
St. Louis Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks
16 of 16
Why the Rams Could Win: The young team has emerged in 2010 thanks to the breakout season of rookie quarterback Sam Bradford, as well as contributions from relatively unknown wide receivers such as Danario Alexander, to name just one. The passing game's resurgence, combined with the continued strong play from veteran running back Steven Jackson, have given the Rams a strong offensive team that's gotten them one win away from the NFC West title and a home playoff game.
Why the Seahawks Could Win: Charlie Whitehurst could have his coming out party in the biggest game of the Seahawks season. Matt Hasselbeck is extremely questionable for this game after injuring his hip on a touchdown run in Tampa Bay last weekend, so it looks like Whitehurst might start the win-or-go-home game in Seattle. It will take a big day from the longtime backup if the Seahawks are to stumble into the playoffs as a 7-9 division champion.
Prediction: The Rams will have a slow start of things dealing with the loud and hostile environment that is Qwest Field, especially when the local fans know they can will their team into the playoffs and specifically a home playoff game. But Sam Bradford is a great young quarterback, and I think he overcomes any issues with the crowd noise and the magnitude of the game and ultimately leads the Rams to the NFC West division crown.
Final Score: St. Louis Rams 24, Seattle Seahawks 14
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