New York Yankees: 10 Reasons Andy Pettitte Holds AL East's Fate in His Hands
When Andy Pettitte walked off the mound and headed towards the dugout after recording the final out of the seventh inning of Game 3 of the ALCS, he may have been wondering if he had just thrown the final pitch of his major league career.
If you're a Yankees fan, you're probably thinking something along the lines of, "He better not have!" or "No way! He'll be back!" If you're a Red Sox fan, then you're probably just laughing happily while wearing your new Carl Crawford or Adrian Gonzalez jersey. If you're a Rays fan, then you probably don't care, seeing as there's not really that much hope for your team this season.
Anyway, the Yankees went on to lose Game 3, 8-0, their offense completely stymied by the very same man that would go on to break their hearts this offseason, Cliff Lee. They would also lose Game 4, then win Game 5 before packing their bags and heading home following a loss in Game 6 of that ALCS versus the Texas Rangers.
Every Yankees fan then got his or her wish as Lee imploded in Games 1 and 5 of the 2010 World Series, the ultimate glory eluding him for the second time in as many years, as the San Francisco Giants celebrated atop the baseball summit, just as the 2009 Yankees had the year prior.
Yankees fans then smiled and thought to themselves, "There's no way he blows next year's World Series when he's got our pinstriped Empire behind him." After all, there wasn't even a question of who would offer the now-free agent Lee the most lucrative contract this offseason when it was seemingly going to be a bidding war between the Rangers and Yankees.
The Yankees made their offer, by far the biggest, and waited for Lee's decision.
As they waited, other free agents, such as Crawford, Jayson Werth, and others, disappeared, signed to massive contracts of their own.
Then Lee delivered his news.
He had chosen to sign with the .... Phillies? That's right, he had spurned the Bombers, as well as the Rangers, and taken a shorter, lesser deal because he "liked it in Philly." Well, he should be thankful he won't be visiting Yankee Stadium at all during the regular season, and if the two teams do meet in October, he better tell his wife to stay home, because EVERYONE will be trying to spit on her this time.
What Lee's long, dragged out rejection of the Yankees did for them was throw them into desperation mode for the 2011 season. As of right now, the Yankees' rotation consists of CC Sabathia, Phil Hughes, A.J. Burnett, and ... Ivan Nova? Great, an ace, a kid, Mr. Inconsistency, and another inexperienced kid. Wait, that's only four? Oh, sorry ... and an empty slot. As a Yankees fan, I think I speak for all of us when I say WE DON'T LIKE THAT!
A month ago, we all viewed Pettitte as a possible luxury that would make our rotation as incredible as, well, the current Philadelphia rotation. Now, he's a necessity without which the Yankees will have quite a rough time this season. Pettitte is not going to sign with another team, that much is clear. He will either rejoin the Yankees or hang up the spikes forever. There's no doubt that Pettitte still has more than enough gas in his tank to enable him to pitch well for the Yankees, but family is important to him, and he might choose them over baseball. However, there is also no doubt about what kind of an impact Pettitte's decision will have on the entire outlook of the AL East. So, here they are, ten reasons the fate of the AL East, and maybe all of baseball, lies in the hands of Andy Pettitte.
1. The Difference Between Contending and Pretending
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Without Andy Pettitte, the Yankees have at best three good starters.
CC Sabathia has proven that he can be consistently excellent, putting up a 40-15 record with 394 strikeouts and an average 3.28 ERA in his first two seasons in pinstripes. Phil Hughes had a breakout year for the Yankees in 2010, posting a record of 18-8 with a 4.19 ERA, and at the young age of 24, it seems logical for him to only get better as he gains experience at the major league level. These two look like they could be anchors of the Yankee rotation for years to come. Who knows, maybe there's a Cy Young Award in store for one or both of them.
Then there's A.J. Burnett, who is easily the best pitcher in baseball. The problem is, he is just as easily the worst. In 2009, he had a 13-9 record with a 4.04 ERA, then in 2010, he had a losing 10-15 record with a 5.26 ERA. Both of these records are very deceiving. On some days, A.J. Burnett can be unhittable, with a curveball that makes opposing hitters laugh with disbelief on their way back to the the dugout. Other days, opposing hitters laugh as they take turns sending those same curveballs over the outfield fences, scoring eight runs or more before Joe Girardi finally can't bear to watch anymore and pulls Burnett from the game. If new Yankee pitching coach Larry Rothschild can figure out how to get "good A.J." to take the mound on a regular basis, Burnett could be one of the Yankees' most valuable weapons.
Assuming Burnett can at least perform to a level somewhere in between 2009 and 2010, that still only leaves the Yankees with three reliable starters. Anyone that knows baseball knows that it takes four reliable starters to win a division, much less a postseason series these days. With Andy Pettitte onboard, the Yankees have the rotation that won them the World Series title in '09 plus a more mature, starter-version of Phil Hughes. Pettitte turns the Yankees into true contenders.
2. The Necessity of The Trade Deadline
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At the last Trade Deadline, Cliff Lee was the man to get, and the Yankees thought that they had him.
A deal was all set between New York and Seattle that would send the ace lefty to the Yankees for prized catching prospect Jesus Montero, plus pitcher Zach McAllister and second baseman David Adams.
Seattle then expressed concern about Adams' sprained ankle, and when New York refused to substitute him with Eduardo Nunez, Seattle traded Lee to Texas for a package centered around first base prospect Justin Smoak.
Looking back, this trade would have been excellent in the short term but terrible in the long term.
Unless Lee loved his time in New York, he still would have left for Philly and the Yankees would have lost their top prospect for a rental. However, it is entirely possible that this rental could have awarded them with a second consecutive World Series title, as they would have likely been able to dispatch the Rays (since without him the Rangers would have been defeated by Tampa Bay) in the ALCS, and would've had a rotation to match the Giants in the World Series.
But that's just water under the bridge at this point, so let's focus on the present.
Without Andy Pettitte, Brian Cashman will be frantically looking for a starter at the 2011 Trade Deadline. And, seeing as it's the Yankees, it's going to be "go big or go home."
That means that Cashman will be looking into the likes of Josh Johnson, Felix Hernandez, Matt Garza, or maybe Carlos Zambrano to fill his rotational needs. Any of those players would likely demand a package centered around Jesus Montero, unless by that time Russell Martin has already failed and Montero is the Yankees' starting catcher, in which case they would be centered around players like Austin Romine and the "Killer B's," Banuelos, Betances, and Brackman. No Yankee fan wants to destroy a possible future dynasty for one pitcher when they could just get Andy now.
By looking at the young talent in the organizations of the other four AL East clubs, keeping their prospects would certainly benefit the Yankees of the future.
3. The Purpose of The Trade Deadline
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One more point about the Trade Deadline.
If Andy Pettitte returns and the Yankees were playing well enough approaching the Trade Deadline, they could forget about acquiring a starter and turn their focus towards another weakness, such as their bullpen.
Instead of converting packages of big-time prospects into established ace starters, they could trade lesser minor league players for relievers to bolster the 'pen. If none of the starters are injured and they are all pitching well enough to keep the Yankees' confidence in them, the Yankees could do what they did last year after whiffing on Lee for the first time, and acquire a plus setup man for Mariano Rivera.
How about Royals' closer Joakim Soria? He should be available, considering the Royals will be far out of contention for a long time and are most likely dedicated to rebuilding after the Zack Greinke trade.
The Yankees' bullpen needs help, so it would be nice to be able to focus solely on reinforcing it at the Trade Deadline.
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4. Boston Red Sox Resurgence
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The Boston Red Sox were a joke in 2010.
Injury after injury crippled a team that many people thought would be one of the three best in baseball along with the Rays and Yankees, who just happen to be in the same division. Going into the season, the Boston rotation was supposed to be one of the best, if not the best in baseball.
Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, John Lackey, Clay Buchholz, and Daisuke Matsuzaka were supposed to carry Boston to an AL East Championship. However, Beckett, Buchholz, and Dice-K were all hit with injuries, and John Lackey underperformed in his first season in Boston.
The only two pitchers that pitched well were Jon Lester, and Clay Buchholz when he wasn't injured, and they pitched extremely well, carrying their club to a respectable finish despite their overall collapse. In fact, Lester and Buchholz finished fourth and sixth, respectively, in the AL Cy Young Award voting.
The Red Sox have improved, there's no argument there.
But, how much have they REALLY improved?
They traded for All-Star first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, and signed All-Star outfielder Carl Crawford, but don't forget that they also lost Victor Martinez and Adrian Beltre, who put up great numbers in 2010. In fact, each new player had similar 2010 numbers to one of the old players, Martinez to Crawford and Beltre to Gonzalez. Martinez hit .302 with 20 homers and 79 RBI, while Crawford hit .307 with 19 homers and 90 RBI. What gives Crawford the edge is his speed, having stolen 47 bases last season. Beltre had an MVP-caliber year, hitting .321 with 228 homers and 102 RBI. Gonzalez hit .298 with 31 homers and 101 RBI. Gonzalez only gets the edge because his numbers are expected to increase with his move from PETCO Park to Fenway Park.
The Red Sox production will increase, but not quite by the margin that most fans are probably expecting
Quietly, the Red Sox made possibly their largest improvement by upgrading their bullpen.
They acquired lefty Andrew Miller from the Marlins for Dustin Richardson, and signed free agents Dan Wheeler and former White Sox closer Bobby Jenks to add on to a bullpen already featuring Tim Wakefield, Hideki Okajima, Scott Atchison, Daniel Bard, and Jonathan Papelbon.
Along with their starters, the Red Sox bullpen could actually give Boston's pitching staff a slight edge over Philadelphia.
Andy Pettitte has always pitched well against the Red Sox, and with their lineup being heavily-laden with lefties, he would be more important than ever in their 2011 match-ups.
It would have been great to have three lefties in the rotation to face the Red Sox, with those three being Sabathia, Lee, and Pettitte, but I think now any Yankees fan would settle for just the two.
5. The Fall Of Tampa Bay
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Oh, what a magical story the Tampa Bay Rays have provided us with over the past three years!
Alas, every story must come to an end, and it appears that the tale of Tampa Bay won''t last quite as long as they would have hoped.
After rising to glory in 2008 and winning the AL Championship, the Rays fell short in 2009 before reclaiming the AL East by a single game in 2010. However, the Rays ran straight into a new Cinderella-story in the form of the Texas Rangers and their newly-acquired ace, Cliff Lee. They lost the first two games of the ALDS at home before fighting themselves back to the Trop by winning two straight in Arlington, but were no match for Lee, who held them to a single run in Game 5. It must have been a crushing feeling in the Tampa Bay dugout that night, as the Rays probably knew that their team would not be the same when they reported for Spring Training in 2011.
Two of the franchise's best players and biggest icons have left the team this offseason, as first baseman Carlos Pena signed with the Chicago Cubs, and Carl Crawford signed with the rival Boston Red Sox.
The Rays then went ahead and traded former All-Star shortstop Jason Bartlett to the San Diego Padres.
However, as bad as all of that sounds, the worst part of the Rays' offseason is the complete and total demolition of their bullpen, one of their biggest strengths these past three years.
The Rays lost every reliever they had except for Andy Sonnanstine. Joaquin Benoit signed with the Tigers, Dan Wheeler followed Crawford to Boston, and Randy Choate signed with the Marlins.
Chad Qualls, Lance Cormier, Grant Balfour, and Rafael Soriano are all still available, but with relief pitching being the valued commodity that it is, none are expected to return. This means that, unless the Rays can swing a deal for a star closer similar to how they did in 2010 for Soriano, their entire bullpen will be made up of minor leaguers.
The Rays don't figure to factor into the competition for the AL East in 2011, and with their transformation into an average, .500 team complete, the Yankees need to treat the Rays similar to how they treated the Orioles in 2010, as if they can and SHOULD win every single game they play against them.
Their demise could make the AL East into a two-team race between the Yankees and Red Sox, meaning every game is that much more important.
Andy Pettitte could help the Yankees win these kind of games.
Putting a young pitcher like Hector Noesi or David Phelps into the rotation would be like giving teams like the Rays, Blue Jays, and Orioles better chances to win.
6. A Proven Champion
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Andy Pettitte is no stranger to success.
He already has a ring for every finger of that wondrous left hand of his, and is more than capable of helping the Yankees win it all for a sixth time in his tenure with the club.
Pettitte proved to a lot of people that he is still one of the game's best lefties in 2010, earning himself his first All-Star appearance since 2001. Sadly, after a dominant start to the season that had him sporting an 11-2 record with a 2.73 ERA at the All-Star break, Pettitte pulled his groin during a July 18th start against the Rays that kept him sidelined for two months.
Pettitte had been putting up Cy Young-caliber numbers before injuring himself, so who knows how well his season could have been had he stayed healthy.
Clearly, he could be a major asset to the 2011 Yankees, and I'm sure if he hadn't publicly stated he only wanted to play for the Yankees, he would probably be receiving tons of calls from other teams inquiring about his services.
He could easily win 18-20 games for the Yankees, which is likely far more than Sergio Mitre or any other inexperienced minor leaguer could.
Those extra wins might make all the difference this season with the division, and even the league, as talented it is. Andy Pettitte is a big-game pitcher, and nobody has won more postseason games than he has with 19. In fact, he was suffering from back problems during Game 3 of the ALCS, and we all saw how valiantly he dueled against Cliff Lee.
A healthy Pettitte in the postseason, as well as the regular season, is a valuable weapon to have if you're the Yankees.
7. A Leader's Presence
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Leadership is something most people attribute to the manager of the team. However, a player can be a leader of a team as well.
Andy Pettitte is an example of one of those players who can help his team on the mound and off it. In fact, the Yankees are filled with valuable leader-types, such as Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera, and of course, the captain, Derek Jeter. However, despite CC Sabathia being the clear "ace" of the pitching staff, he is not the same type of leader that Pettitte is.
Pettitte can help a pitching staff in more ways than one. He can help some of the younger pitchers, like Phil Hughes and Ivan Nova, with their mechanics or even with their presence on the mound.
I'm sure even when the great Sabathia struggles, the first person he probably goes to is his fellow lefty, Andy.
It's great to have one of the best lefties in the game being mentored by one of the game's all-time best lefties.
Pettitte is a seasoned veteran, and has gained a lot of experience and wisdom over the years that he can impart on the other members of the Yankees rotation.
Andy Pettitte isn't just another starter, he's the leader of the staff.
8. Final Peace Of Mind
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Andy Pettitte has made it clear that he has no intentions of playing this little game again next offseason.
If he does pitch in the 2011 season, it will in fact be his last season.
It has reached the point where family is just too important to him. Andy doesn't want to miss out on his children's childhoods. He doesn't want to be "Andy Pettitte, starting pitcher for the New York Yankees" anymore. He wants to be "Andy Pettitte, dad."
The only reason he is still considering returning for his sixteenth major league season is that those very same kids that he wants to spend time with still want him to pitch for the Yankees. It's "cool" to have a professional pitcher for a father, and those kids aren't ready to let that go.
So, say that he listens to his kids, and the entire Yankees Universe, and does pitch in 2011. Knowing that it will be his last season will allow him to focus on what's important, winning, and not on how his performance will affect his future contracts. It will also allow him to relax and just enjoy one final ride. A stressed out pitcher usually isn't a good pitcher, so this is a plus for the Yankees.
Andy might have had this very attitude the past two years, during which he wasn't sure if he would return the next season, and pitched beautifully. Clearly, the relaxed Andy Pettitte is the kind of Andy Pettitte you want on your team. His carefree attitude will allow him to just pitch and enjoy the ride, a ride that hopefully can lead to an AL East title, an AL pennant, and maybe a sixth World Series ring for Andy Pettitte.
9. The Fight In Philly
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Okay, so this doesn't have much to do with the AL East, but I had to include it. Unless there is some kind of catastrophe involving long-term injuries to one or more of the Phillies' starters, Philadelphia WILL make the playoffs, and they will probably go far, if not all the way. There is already talk of this rotation, consisting of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels, possibly being the best in the history of the game.
Each of these players has, in the past three years, been the ace of a team. Halladay still is the ace, Lee was the ace of the '08 Indians, '09 Phillies, and '10 Rangers (co-ace of the Mariners?), Oswalt was the long'-time ace of the Houston Astros until last year, and Cole Hamels was the ace of the Phils back when they won it all in 2008. With the Phillies' offense, they each have a legitimate chance at winning 20 games in 2011.
So, if ANY team has any hopes of beating this machine in Philadelphia, they need to have a rotation that can compete with them.
If Andy Pettitte returns, the Yankees could have that rotation. Think about it. Halladay vs Sabathia probably favors Halladay, but so did Halladay vs Lincecum and look how that turned out. We've already seen Pettitte vs Lee in Game 3 of the ALCS, and Pettitte would have matched Lee if he could have taken back a single pitch to Josh Hamilton that accounted for the only earned runs the Rangers tagged him for that night.
Hughes vs Oswalt all depends on whether or not Hughes can repeat his 2010 success in 2011, and Burnett vs Hamels is a tale of two pitchers that are both dominant, but can struggle at times.
Suddenly, Philadelphia's rotation isn't looking so scary is it? Take out Andy Pettitte though, and it's back to overwhelming terror. If the Yankees could make it to the World Series, they would need Pettitte to have a serious chance against a powerhouse like Philly, or even San Francisco for that matter.
10. One More For The Core Four
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When the first pitch of the 2012 season is thrown, two of these men will be retired. Hint, it's not the two guys that just signed new multi-year deals this offseason.
That's right, Jorge Posada and Andy Pettitte will not be members of the 2012 New York Yankees.
Obviously, we don't even know if Andy will be a member of the 2011 Yankees, but Jorge has one more year on his contract, and has already been told that he will spend it as the Yankees' full-time designated hitter. Certainly there are exceptions, but with the toll it takes on their bodies, most catchers usually don't play into their forties. Posada is not one of those exceptions, and it is all but guaranteed that the 2011 season will be his last. Andy Pettitte has also publicly stated that, if he does indeed return, 2011 will be his last season as well.
Knowing that it is your last year, especially when you are a life-long Yankee, comes with the knowledge that you will receive one of the most overwhelming ovations humanly possible when you take your last steps off of the field at Yankee Stadium.
For Posada, as a DH, it will likely be when the fans realize that this at-bat is probably the last they will see, although I'm sure if the Yankees had a sizeable lead in the final inning of the 2011 World Series-clinching game, manager Joe Girardi would probably insert his old catcher to catch the final pitches from Mariano Rivera.
For Pettitte, should he return, it would be as he walked off of the mound after being removed from his final start at Yankee Stadium. Actually, if you look back at the footage of Game 3, the Yankee Stadium faithful gave him that ovation already, just in case.
Nothing would be sweeter for the Yankees, however, than for the Core Four of Pettitte, Posada, Derek Jeter, and Mariano Rivera to win one last championship together.
To hear not one, but two Yankee legends make heartfelt speeches while holding the Commissioner's Trophy would be enough to make just about any Yankees fan shed a tear. Without Pettitte, however, there isn't a very strong chance of seeing a 28th championship in the Bronx, much less an AL East crown. Without Pettitte, the Yankees might be shooting for a Wild Card berth, and then have to scratch and claw their way to the World Series.
The odds of that happening are slim, so let's cross our fingers, and wait for Andy's decision.
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