2011 NFL Draft Order: Who Should the Dolphins Target at No. 15?

For Miami Dolphins' fans, it's a saying that has become all too familiar: It's never too early to look ahead.

So, as the 2010 season ends for Miami, and with free agency unlikely to occur without a collective bargaining agreement (CBA), let's turn our attention to the 2011 NFL Draft. 

Specifically, what will the Dolphins do with their first round pick which is now officially No. 15?

I've come up with 10 possible selections on the following slides, but let's look at several important variables first. 

1. Will the coach and general manager still be Tony Sparano and Jeff Ireland respectively? We should get an answer on this question shortly. If they finish the one-year remaining on their contracts, it's hard to imagine the draft selection of any long-term project (read no first-round quarterback)

2. Will the possibility of a lockout diminish the draft talent pool? There is already talk of the early consensus best player in the draft, quarterback Andrew Luck, returning to school. How many other underclassmen will be scared off by the prospect of no professional football next year?

3. Will signability be a problem? If there is no NFL season in 2011, you would think that a drafted player could re-enter the 2012 draft pool if he doesn't sign a contract. This is an under-reported sticky situation and one of the reasons there should not be a draft without a new CBA. For example, if I am Cam Newton, and I don't like the team that drafts me, I sit out. Without a product on the field, I'm not missing valuable time to learn the offense.

Furthermore, if I am an NFL owner, I would be waiting as long as possible to give a rookie multiple millions of dollars for a season where he might not even play. 

4. The Dolphins have no second-round pick.  What this means is that their first-round slot could change dramatically if they decide to trade down and recoup a second round selection. Last year, a similar trade down completely changed the names of players that Miami was looking at.

5. This might be the worst draft in recent memory. I've been following the draft way too closely for over 20 years. The class of 2011 lacks elite prospects at a number of positions including running back, tight end and the offensive line, which happen to all be need areas for the Dolphins. This is a year where Miami might be best served by taking the best available player regardless of position. 

6. A lot will change between now and April. This is a first look at the draft and a player's stock will fluctuate greatly over the next few months.

I will keep you constantly updated on the draft buzz, but remember this is just a series of projections before post-season all-star games, the combine, personal workouts, etc.

Well, without further ado, here are 10 possible selections with Miami's first round draft pick in 2011...

1. Jake Locker, QB, Washington

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SEATTLE - OCTOBER 30: Quarterback Jake Locker #10 of the Washington Huskies passes against the Stanford Cardinal on October 30, 2010 at Husky Stadium in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images)

Pros: At 6'3", 220 pounds, Locker is built for the position. Despite an arguably bad cast around him, Locker led the Huskies to a winning season in 2010 two years after the team went 0-12. He has excellent arm strength and is actually a tough, athletic runner.

Most important, his intangibles are off the chart. Locker finds a way to win, even when he isn't statistically proficient. In Washington's 19-7 victory over Nebraska in the Holiday Bowl, Locker completed only five of 16 passes for 56 yards, but also ran for 83 yards, including a 25-yard touchdown that put the game out of reach.

Cons: Inconsistent mechanics and decision-making. Locker rarely seemed to dominate (except against USC), despite having quarterback specialist Steve Sarkisian as a coach. In games against big-time opponents, he rarely shined statistically, especially in his two games against Nebraska this season where he struggled to find any open receiver.

His completion percentage of 55.4 percent is not going to get it done on the next level. His stock has been on the decline since last season when there was some thought he could be the number one pick overall.

How he fits: Most important, he could actually still be on the board when Miami drafts. Of the three quarterbacks I have on this list, I think he is the most NFL+ready by far (playing in a pro-style offense is a huge advantage), and therefore the most likely to be drafted if Tony Sparano and Jeff Ireland stay with the Dolphins. Locker strikes me as the kind of guy who wants to play football and if paired with a sound mentor could play big dividends sooner rather than later.

2. Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama

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TUSCALOOSA, AL - NOVEMBER 26: Mark Ingram #22 of the Alabama Crimson Tide rushes for a touchdown against the Auburn Tigers at Bryant-Denny Stadium on November 26, 2010 in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

Pros: He has great vision, balance, power, and the innate ability to get tough yards. He has averaged over five yards per carry in the toughest conference to run against in college football.

Cons: Ingram lacks a breakaway gear and probably will require good blocking at the NFL level. Only a junior, but he still has 560 carries despite missing a few games for a variety of reasons. He is the kind of back who could have some great seasons in the NFL but could break down quickly. Coincidentally, I am not sure that Trent Richardson, Ingram's backup at 'Bama won't be the better pro.

How he fits: I'll go on record right now and say that Ingram isn't the best fit in Miami. Yes, the Dolphins need new running backs and Ingram can certainly carry the ball regularly. But, Miami needs a runner with less mileage on his tires, less of a bruising style and more of a dynamic playmaker.

I am also completely opposed to taking a running back in the first round after reading how the position has become virtually outdated in an excellent piece by Roy Johnson at ESPN.com. Please read the article and learn how the elite NFL teams don't have a franchise running back anymore.

3. Julio Jones, WR, Alabama

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ORLANDO, FL - JANUARY 01: Julio Jones #8 of the Alabama Crimson Tide stiffarms Chris Rucker #29 of the Michigan State Spartans during the Capitol One Bowl at the Florida Citrus Bowl on January 1, 2011 in Orlando, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Im

Pros: Jones has prototypical size and speed (6-3, 215 pounds with 4.5 speed) to be a No. 1 receiver at the next level. He can threaten the field vertically which is rare for a player of his size.

Cons: His production has rarely lived up to the tremendous hype as some scouting services had him as the number one player coming out of high school. He drops too many catchable passes and may never be truly comfortable as "the guy" on a team in the NFL. Too often, he looks ordinary instead of special.

How he fits: Jones actually fits well as a possible 'Fin. Having Brandon Marshall on the other side would take some of the pressure off of him to produce and he has some of the deep speed that Marshall lacks. Actually, none of the projected top receivers (A.J. Green, Jones or Justin Blackmon) are ideal fits for Miami because they aren't blazers and or top-level return targets.

However, I have significant questions about Green's toughness after watching him short arm a couple of passes in crunch time against Central Florida. I see Blackmon as more of a Marshall-type receiver at the next level (lots of catches for not a ton of yards).

4. Mike Pouncey, C, Florida

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MIAMI - JANUARY 08: Mike Pouncey #55 of the Florida Gators reacts after a play against the Oklahoma Sooners in the FedEx BCS National Championship Game at Dolphin Stadium on January 8, 2009 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Eliot J. Schechter/Getty Images)

Pros: Big for a center and somewhat athletic. Versatile enough to play center or guard. A leader and a guy who will find his way into the lineup quickly.

Cons: Might be a better right guard than center and where does that leave Miami's third round selection in 2010, John Jerry? Pouncey's best quality might be his versatility, while Miami needs elite, athletic players to turn their offensive line around (whether they draft them is another matter).

How he fits: Miami desperately needs a center and while Pouncey is not as good as his brother Maurkice, he would fit the bill nicely for Miami. This is not a flashy pick obviously and a projection based on his current draft stock. I think the Dolphins would likely try to trade down before settling on the Gator.

5. Anthony Castonzo, RT, Boston College

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CHESTNUT HILL, MA - OCTOBER 03: Anthony Castonzo #74 of the Boston College Eagles congratulates teammate Montel Harris #2 after Harris scored a touchdown in the first quarter against the Florida State Seminoles on October 3, 2009 at Alumni Stadium in Che

Pros: Long, physical and nasty. Castonzo fits the mold of a typical Boston College offensive tackle which is a hard worker, and solid in both the passing and running game. Perhaps most important, Castonzo is durable and dependable in starting something like 54 consecutive games. A former Rhodes Scholar candidate, it safe to say that Castonzo is pretty smart. 

Cons: Not exceptionally athletic. Castonzo is 6'7", and yet under 310 pounds, which gives me pause as to whether he can anchor at the next level.  

How he fits: Miami needs a right tackle more than most fans might realize. Vernon Carey is perennially a few pounds overweight and it seems to be catching up to his knees. Castonzo doesn't dominate but he is a consistent, hard-working player that would seem to be appealing to the current regime in Miami.

6. Von Miller, OLB/DE, Texas A&M

Pros: Very good fit as an outside 3-4 rush linebacker. Miller came on strong late in the season and notched 9.5 sacks. Had a great game against Nebraska. Miller has a very good first step rushing the passer and looks natural doing so.

Cons: He struggled early in the season with an injury. Has a smaller frame than his 6'3", 240-pound frame would suggest and he could get washed out of plays by the tightend. In playing Texas A&M's joker position (linebacker/defensive end) there is a real question as to whether he will be an every down linebacker initially in the NFL.

How he fits: There will be immense pressure for Miami to go offense with their first round pick, but ultimately they may decide to go with the best athlete available and that might just be Miller in the middle of the first round.

The natural follow-up question would be where does this leave last year's second round pick Koa Misi and I have an answer. I think Misi could be excellent fit as an inside linebacker to replace Channing Crowder and be paired with Karlos Dansby. Also, Miami desperately needs another pass rusher to pair with or spell Cameron Wake and Miller is capable of doing that in limited snaps during his rookie year.

7. Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri

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TEMPE, AZ - DECEMBER 28: Quarterback Blaine Gabbert #11 of the Missouri Tigers throws a pass during the Insight Bowl against the Iowa Hawkeyes at Sun Devil Stadium on December 28, 2010 in Tempe, Arizona. The Hawkeyes defeated the Tigers 27-24. (Photo by

Pros: Gabbert has a big-time arm. I was watching Missouri's bowl game against Iowa a few days ago and watched Gabbert move to his right and then throw across his body with a perfect strike on an out route to the left sideline.

There are a lot of NFL quarterbacks who can not make that throw. At 6'5", 235 lbs., Gabbert has ideal size for the position and at least in the tape I watched he seems to have a nice high release. He has a reputation as an outstanding person, as well as football player.

Cons: He has to make the transition into a pro-style offense and this adjustment is much, much harder than anyone realizes. Just taking the snap from center instead of in the shotgun could be enough to prevent Gabbert from succeeding on the next level.

Gabbert is an underclassmen and raw developmentally, and while his completion percentage went up to 63.4 in 2010, his yards passing and touchdowns decreased dramatically this season.

How he fits: The opinions on Gabbert range all over the place and while some "experts" have the Missouri signal caller as the second best quarterback prospect after Andrew Luck, I doubt that will be the case come draft time.

As for impact on the Dolphins, I can only see Miami taking him with a new decision making regime in place that gives him time to develop. The ceiling on Gabbert is high but his impact probably won't be felt until two or three years down the line.

One major hitch in this projection is that Gabbert could easily return to Missouri for his senior season which might be best for the young man's development in the long run.

8. Gabe Carimi, RT, Wisconsin

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COLUMBUS, OH - OCTOBER 10: Offensive lineman Gabe Carimi #68 of the Wisconsin Badgers blocks against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Ohio Stadium on October 10, 2009 in Columbus, Ohio. (Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images)

Pros:  Has ideal size at 6'7" and nearly 330 pounds. Fits the mold of a tenacious Wisconsin blocker although he was considered a better pass blocker than run-blocker before this year.

Cons: Not extremely athletic and probably doesn't have the feet to be a left tackle on the next level.

How he fits: Very similar to Castonzo in his appeal to the current Miami decision makers. Keep in mind that a new regime that prefers more athletic ability in its offensive lineman will probably look more at offensive line prospects like Colorado's Nate Solder or Mississippi State's Derek Sherrod.

9. Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska

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LINCOLN, NE - NOVEMBER 26: Prince Amukamara #21 of the Nebraska Cornhuskers misses a chance at an interception from Scotty McKnight #21 of the Colorado Buffaloes during the second half of their game at Memorial Stadium on November 26, 2010 in Lincoln, Neb

Pros: Big,physical cornerback who can be a playmaker. Miami craves physical corners with legitimate size. Amukamara also happens to play one of the most important positions in today's NFL.

Cons: No interceptions as a senior, and perhaps not quite the player he was when Ndamukong Suh was a Cornhusker. Yes, one player does make that much of a difference. Does not have top-end speed.

How he fits: This pick probably shocks a lot of Miami Dolphin fans but it really shouldn't. First of all, I have heard that his stock is slipping a bit. Amukamara could be the best player left on the board by the time Miami picks.

Also, the Dolphins simply haven't gotten everything they should be getting out of Vontae Davis or Sean Smith. Amukamara is a converted running back and has the ball skills that seem to be missing from the Dolphins' secondary.

10. Cameron Newton, QB, Auburn

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ATLANTA - DECEMBER 04: Quarterback Cam Newton #2 of the Auburn Tigers celebrates after a touchdown during the 2010 SEC Championship against the South Carolina Gamecocks at Georgia Dome on December 4, 2010 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Mike Zarrilli/Get

Pros: Unquestioned measurables. Newton is 6'6" and about 250 pounds. He has a live arm and will run probably in the 4.5 40 range. Reminds me a little bit of a combination of an early Daunte Culpepper and Michael Vick more than he does Vince Young.

He is a clear competitor and showed that instinct in the team's comeback win over Alabama this season. His completion percentage of 67.1 is outstanding, especially coming in the SEC. He is a dynamic playmaker that in the current version of the NFL scores points in bunches (see Vick).

Cons: He's a one-year wonder at this point and quarterbacks that traditionally don't have a multi-year pedigree in college fail. What quarterback that possesses Newton's skill set ever won a Super Bowl? To this point, none have.

There are huge maturity questions surrounding Newton regarding his theft of a laptop at Florida and the allegations that his father shopped his services to the highest bidder. In short, will Newton be able to handle a multi-million dollar contract once he signs in the pros?

How he fits: I think Newton's physical attributes get him drafted before Miami selects. However, I do see the possibility of a Sparano-Ireland regime taking a player such as Newton to perform in a change of pace role until the entire NFL game slows down for him. Simply put, Newton would be much more suited to the role that the current brain-trust had in mind for Pat White.

Newton has high-boom or bust potential and I wonder how he will respond to playing against athletes that are closer to his caliber.

Okay, that's it for now, but I wanted to take a moment on the next slide to rule out some players that Miami might have interest for now but probably don't fit for a variety of reasons.

The Best of the Rest

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COLUMBIA, MO - OCTOBER 23: DeMarco Murray #7 of the Oklahoma Sooners in action against the Missouri Tigers at Faurot Field/Memorial Stadium on October 23, 2010 in Columbia, Missouri. The Tigers beat the Sooners 36-27. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Ima

Okay, so you might be wondering why Arkansas quarterback Ryan Mallet is not on the list. I don't see any realistic chance of him slipping to Miami when it gets closer to draft time. I think he will throw the ball extremely well at workouts and with Andrew Luck possibly returning to Stanford, I think Mallett could be the first quarterback taken. Regardless, I doubt he falls past the Buffalo Bills pick in the top 10.

DeMarco Murray is a player that I like. Yes, he always seems to be battling injuries, and technically has more wear on his tires than Mark Ingram, but the one thing I can't get out of mind is 64 career touchdowns.

He just seems to make important plays every time Oklahoma needs them. That being said, he really isn't a first round player, nor should he be. But, if Miami picks up a second round pick, then I would look hard at Murray. I also like Murray's teammate Ryan Broyles, but he also is not a first-round pick nor does he have the speed that Miami requires.

The problem with a few highly rated defensive lineman in this year's draft like Nick Fairley, Da'Quan Bowers, Marcell Dareus or Robert Quinn is that they probably will go higher than Miami picks and the Dolphins are relatively deep on the defensive line at this moment. Also, in playing a 3-4 defense, Miami has some limitations in terms of the types of players they can consider.