Less Is More: Are the Spurs Better with Duncan Playing Heavy or Light Minutes?
First off, before anyone gets mad at me, the title you see on the main page, "Can the Spurs Keep Winning With Diminishing Duncan," was not my title and is not the point I am trying to get across at all. One of the NBA page editors did that. The real title and the point I am writing about is the one you see on the top of this page. Now, on to the article!
The San Antonio Spurs are on a roll this year with an NBA-best record of 29-4. That's in no small part thanks to their new run-'n-gun offense that is producing some of the franchise's best numbers since the days of George Gervin and James Silas.
However, one aspect that can be overlooked amidst all the winning is Tim Duncan's reduced role due to a drop in minutes, age and the rise of other players. Prior to the season, many saw this situation as the demise of the team that had just been labeled the Best of the Decade.
The true question is how long, if at all, can the Spurs go with Duncan playing limited minutes (30 minutes or fewer) and is it for the benefit of the team? If this season has been any indication, it certainly doesn't hurt the team that much compared to the past.
Here is a list of how Duncan playing more or fewer minutes affects the team.
Offense
1 of 6
Duncan has always been one of the most reliable players on the Spurs offense. However, unlike previous years, it does not flow directly through him. This is evident in his career-low of 13.6 points per game, as well as a career-high in assists per minute with one every 10.7 minutes.
More Minutes
Even though he's not shooting the ball as much, Duncan is still a big part of what the offense does by drawing attention in the post, setting screens and distributing the ball, all of which requires a good amount of energy and movement. When he starts getting tired, he tends to rush his shots too much and they start falling flat. When he's off balance, so is the entire team.
Fewer Minutes
The fresher Duncan stays, the better off he is on offense. If he can continue to rest, he will remain efficient, especially down in the post. He doesn't get off his feet as well as he used to and is shooting a lot more jump shots lately. With the rest of the team providing a lot more points, scoring is not his top priority.
Defense
2 of 6
Duncan is probably contributing more to the team on defense than offense this season. He is still the most reliable big-man defender on the team, even though he does have a reliable backup with Antonio McDyess.
More Minutes
Duncan is still the Spurs' best shot blocker (1.9 blocks per game) and rebounder (9.4 per game). Another factor is when his teammates get out on a fastbreak, he can hold back on defense in case of a counterattack, which is another way to save some energy.
Fewer Minutes
Although the bench is full of reliable defenders, none has the presence and intimidation Duncan has had over the years. The defense sometimes goes to sleep when he's out of the game. There's a reason he typically comes back in when the team is struggling.
Presence on the Court
3 of 6
One of the more telling statistics of a player is his plus/minus ratio. When the number for a player is positive, his team is outscoring opponents by that number when he's on the floor. When it's negative, his team is being outscored. While it can be a misleading statistic in any particular game, the overall average for the season says a lot.
Duncan has the second-highest plus/minus ratio on the team (behind Manu Ginobili) of plus-242 over 33 games, meaning his team outscores opponents by an average of 7.3 points per game when he's on the floor.
More Minutes
Obviously, it's a plus to have Duncan on the floor. Whether that statistic has more to do with his offensive or defensive production is tough to say but, either way, he has a positive influence on the court. The question is would that average fall if he were playing more minutes and getting tired?
Fewer Minutes
If the Spurs outscore their opponents by 7.3 with Tim on the floor, then they still outscore them by 1.6 points without him (the team's average margin of victory is plus-8.9 points, second best in the league). This suggests that the team can still manage with him on the bench for stretches at a time.
Leadership
4 of 6
Tim Duncan has always been a great leader on and off the court, not just by word, but also by example.
More Minutes
It's always good to have a reliable veteran on the court who knows all the ropes. It helps make newcomers and rookies feel more comfortable learning the system. Duncan always has words of wisdom and encouragement for everyone, which only makes his team better.
Fewer Minutes
Duncan also makes a great sidelines cheerleader and he's definitely happy to cheer his team on during blowouts.
Health
5 of 6
Obviously, if Tim Duncan is not healthy, the Spurs cannot win it all.
More Minutes
The last thing the Spurs want to do is overplay Duncan and have him and his knees wear out before the playoffs arrive. The Lakers are already feeling that effect from overplaying the much younger and healthier Pau Gasol. The more time Duncan plays, the more effect it will have on his knees and he runs a higher risk of getting injured.
Fewer Minutes
The longer the Spurs can go with Duncan averaging 30 minutes or fewer, the better off he will be come playoff time. While he may not like sitting out most fourth quarters, it's valuable resting time, especially during back-to-backs.
The Long Run
6 of 6
So far, the Spurs are doing just fine with Duncan playing fewer minutes. Whether that will continue or not remains to be seen, especially as the schedule begins to get tougher and more tedious.
The Spurs have shown they can survive long stretches on offense without him, even though he has shown that when his team is struggling, he is willing and ready to step up his game and score.
They are typically better off on the defensive end when Duncan is in the game. However, if the bench can keep scoring the way it has and maintain leads, he will still get his fair share of rest.
Fewer minutes also provides more time for others, like DeJuan Blair and Tiago Splitter, to develop and learn the system.
Ultimately, the longer the Spurs can go with Duncan averaging fewer minutes, the better off they will be when the playoffs come around, ready to make another push for a championship.
