Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers: Rivalry Holds Playoff Implications

The Green Bay Packers (9-6) and Chicago Bears (11-4) will meet for the 181st time on Sunday afternoon, and a lot could potentially be on the line for both teams in the latest installment of the NFL's longest running rivalry. 

The Packers need a win to guarantee themselves a spot in the playoffs, although they could potentially lose the game and still secure a berth.

In that latter scenario, both the New York Giants (@ Washington) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@ New Orleans) would also need to lose on Sunday. 

The Bears should know by game time what their situation will be. The Eagles loss on Tuesday clinched a first round bye for Chicago, but a Falcons loss in the early game Sunday to the Carolina Panthers would open the door for the Bears to be the NFC's No. 1 seed with a win over the Packers. 

Meaning, if the cards fall just right, both teams will have a lot to play for on Sunday. And while a Falcons loss in Carolina seems unlikely, Bears coach Lovie Smith said he plans on playing his starters regardless of his team's playoff situation. 

Those factors alone should make for another Bears-Packers classic at Lambeau Field on Sunday.

How do the Packers ensure they prevail in a game with so much on the line?

Harass Jay Cutler

There really is no mystery here. If you want the recipe for beating the Chicago Bears, this is it. 

In fact, Cutler has thrown seven interceptions, lost three fumbles and been sacked 21 times in the Bears' four losses this season. 

Plain and simple, if you revert Cutler back into his turnover happy self, the Bears will self destruct. The easiest way to do that is by putting pressure on Cutler and forcing him into quick decisions. 

The Packers have the horses to do it as well. Clay Matthews (12.5 sacks) and B.J. Raji (6.5) have turned into bonafide pass rushers in their second season, and Cullen Jenkins (seven) and Frank Zombo (four) could possibly return from injury come Sunday.

That defensive group proved their worth in the first meeting, as the Packers sacked Cutler three times and intercepted a pass. Penalties nullified at least two other picks. 

And I'm sure we can all remember back to the opening game of 2009 as well, when the Packers picked off Cutler four times and sacked him twice. 

If the Packers can find a happy medium between their defensive performance against Cutler in '09 and 2010's first meeting, Green Bay will shut down Chicago's ever-improving offense. 

Goal: Three or more sacks, two or more Cutler turnovers

Continue the Offensive Balance

The Packers waited 14 weeks to figure out the concept of offensive balance, but the last two weeks they've nailed it. 

The result? 72 total points and nearly 900 yards of total offense.

Again, the Packers don't need to have a 100 yard rusher, or 250 total yards on the ground on Sunday to have balance. 

It's simply the number of attempts that helps transform this offense from the above average unit it was in the first 14 weeks into the powerhouse it's been the past two. 

In that time span, the Packers have ran the ball 73 times—the highest two game stretch of the season by far—and thrown the ball 74 times. 

The Packers are by no means chewing up big yards on the ground in those 73 attempts either. They've totaled only 262 yards on those attempts (3.6 average), but it's helped give the bread-and-butter of their offense—the passing game—more time and space to be effective. 

It also makes the play-action pass that much more dangerous. Jordy Nelson's 80 yard touchdown last week was a testament to that.

For the Packers' offense to continue their success they've had the past two weeks, that kind of offensive balance needs to continue as well. 

Goal: 30 rushing attempts, 110 yards

Keep Big Plays to a Minimum 

Packers fans would never admit it, but the Bears have just as good of a quick-strike type offense as the Packers do. 

Take last week's third quarter for example. The Bears took over after the Jets' failed fake punt, and in one play, Cutler hit Johnny Knox for a 40 yard touchdown. 

The Jets punted on their next possession, and Devin Hester returned the punt 38 yards. Two plays later, he caught a 25 yard touchdown pass.

New York then tied the game with a touchdown, but Chicago responded in just over two minutes with another Knox touchdown catch—this time from 26 yards out. 

That third quarter highlighted the big play potential of Knox and Hester, but running back Matt Forte has that kind of talent as well. 

In fact, Forte has nearly 1,500 yards of total offense for Chicago and has ripped off runs of 68 and 61 yards this season. Forte also has a touchdown reception for 89 yards.

Those three make it imperative for the Packers to clamp down on any big plays for the Bears. Make Cutler and the offense work for every point they score, because you make things pretty easy on him with quick strike points like they had against the Jets. 

Plays like Hakeem Nicks' 36 yard touchdown, and especially Mario Manningham's 85 yard touchdown last week can't happen this Sunday. 

And one last thing, do not punt Devin Hester the ball under any circumstances. He burned you in Week 3, don't let it happen again.

Goal: No plays over 40 yards allowed defensively, zero chances for Hester in the punting game

Play Fundamentally Sound

The game happened 13 weeks ago, but it's impossible not to state the obvious: penalties killed the Packers in Week 3 against the Bears. 

Any team with 18 penalties in one game doesn't deserve to win, and that kind of yellow-cladded debacle simply cannot happen again at Lambeau Field on Sunday if the Packers want to beat the Bears this time around. 

Penalties all but gave the game to the Bears. On the drive in which they tied the score at 17, Zombo was whistled for a helmet-to-helmet hit on Cutler which wiped out a Nick Barnett interception. 

On the final drive of the game, a pass interference call on Morgan Burnett canceled out Nick Collins' interception that surely would have at least sent the game into overtime. 

Those were just two of the biggest penalties against the Packers that night. Numerous procedure flags and holding calls stalled Green Bay drives in their tracks. 

If Cutler is that careless again, the Packers cannot afford to give him second and third chances. Believe it or not, Cutler is a good NFL quarterback, and he'll kill you if you continue to give him do-overs. 

The Packers have improved their penalty situation leaps and bounds since their Week 3 matchup in Chicago. However, they can afford no regressions in that area if they want to beat the Bears on Sunday. 

Goal: Five or fewer penalties, and zero that wipe out big plays for the Packers

Finally, Win the Emotional Battle

While both teams certainly have something to play for on Sunday, the Packers have far-and-away the most to lose. 

Like I said above, a loss doesn't rule the Packers out, but it leaves their playoff hopes to chance—something I'm sure no one on the Green Bay sidelines wants to do. 

The Bears potentially could be playing for the No. 1 seed, but that scenario remains unlikely. By kickoff, they should know that they're locked into the two seed, and that would dramatically reduce what the Bears have to play for on Sunday. 

I think the Bears would be a tad more comfortable—as would many other NFC teams—if the Packers were watching the playoffs instead of participating, so that may linger as motivation regardless of Atlanta's outcome. 

However, the Packers are in playoff mode right now. Their backs were to the wall last week, and they responded. That same attitude and urgency needs to be present on Sunday, and it should be considering everything that's on the line. 

The emotional battle is often the deciding factor in games between teams of near or equal talent—like Sunday is—and the Packers need to convincingly win that battle. 

Goal: Get up early, and look like the team that has everything to lose

Overall

While the Packers would love to be in the Bears' place on Sunday, you can't ask for much more than a win and you're in situation after everything Green Bay has been through this season. 

However, the Bears aren't going to roll over for the Packers. Cutler and Chicago's offense have steadily improved all season, and their defense has remained intact and solid for the better part of the year.

Chances are also pretty low that the Bears won't turn it over six times like the Giants did last Sunday, and Aaron Rodgers most likely won't get to 400 yards passing again this week. 

With that said, it's hard not to like the Packers in this game.

The offense has finally found some balance, and the results have been tremendous. 72 points is hard to argue with against the likes of the Patriots and Giants. 

Green Bay's defense has also been underrated all season, and it remains one of the league's best at turning over the opposing offense. 

Add in the fact that the Packers need this game considerably more than the Bears do, and Green Bay's recent stretch at Lambeau Field (10-1 in last 11), and the Packers are the favorite in this one. 

The Packers defense will get to Cutler early and often, and Rodgers and the offense will continue their recent success. The Packers beat the Bears 30-20.