San Diego Chargers vs. Cincinnati Bengals: Why Bolts Will Dominate Every Aspect
With a playoff berth on the line, the Chargers head to Cincinnati knowing they must win or they can kiss the postseason goodbye.
Too many mistakes, too many games that got away have led the Bolts to second place in the division with just two games remaining.
Kansas City is leading the division, and while San Diego cannot control what KC does, they can and must take care of business themselves.
The Chargers' next two games are both on the road and against weaker opponents. Here are six key features that will prove beyond a doubt why the Chargers will blow out the Bengals this Sunday and keep the pressure on the Chiefs.
1) The Passing Game
1 of 7
San Diego has two-time Pro Bowl no-show Philip Rivers with his 4,141 passing yards and 29 TDs with 11 interceptions and an outstanding 105.7 QB rating.
Conversely, Cincinnati’s Carson Palmer has thrown for 3,396 yards and 21 TDs with 18 interceptions and a meager 78.7 QB rating.
Cincinnati’s biggest threat at wide receiver, Terrell Owens and his team-leading 72 catches for 983 yards and nine TDs, has been put on injured reserve and will not be playing the rest of the season.
It looks like Chad Ochocinco's injury will keep him out of the game against the Chargers as well. Chad has had an off year with 67 receptions for 831 yards but only four TDs.
With the Bengals' top two receivers sidelined, the job will fall to WR Jordan Shipley and TE Jermaine Gresham, who have been non-factors in recent games. Ouch! That’s got to hurt Cincinnati’s passing attack.
San Diego’s superstar TE Antonio Gates will likely miss another game due to his foot injury. His 50 catches for 782 yards and team-leading 10 TDs would surely be missed if it weren't for the return of 6’5” WR Vincent Jackson.
With barely more than one game under his belt this season, Jackson has moved into third place on the Chargers with three TD receptions—all in one game last week against the 49ers. If Malcom Floyd can overcome his hamstring injury, he could also have a big day if the coverage leans toward Jackson.
Cincinnati has no receivers to speak of, and with a great passing attack, a better QB and better receivers, no matter how you slice it, the advantage is all Chargers.
2) The Running Game
2 of 7
Cincinnati RB Cedric Benson has all of the Bengals' rushing TDs this year with seven. No other Cincinnati back has even come close to scoring.
Benson is the one and only ground threat that the Bengals possess. He has amassed 1,006 yards on 3.6 yards per carry. Bernard Scott has added 217 yards in a relief role.
The Chargers are twice as nice at the same price, as they have put up 14 rushing TDs this season while amassing only 252 more rushing yards than the Bengals.
Fullback turned running back Mike Tolbert has hit pay dirt 11 times with just 178 carries for 737 yards, while rookie RB Ryan Mathews has carried 120 times for 503 yards and three TDs. RB Darren Sproles has pitched in with 216 yards to complete the Chargers' three-pronged running back attack.
Again, by a two to one margin, the advantage clearly goes to the Chargers.
3) Pass Rushing
3 of 7
San Diego brings its No. 1-ranked pass defense into this game, allowing opponents a measly 170.4 yards through the air. Cincinnati is ranked 19th, allowing opponents 222.8 passing yards a game.
Cincinnati’s DE Carlos Dunlap leads an otherwise bland sacking corps with seven of the team’s total of 22 sacks, which ranks the Bengals 30th out of 32 teams in the league.
Conversely, San Diego is ranked first in the league with 44 sacks. LB Shaun Phillips has 11, LB Kevin Burnett has chipped in with six and NT Antonio Garay, who has played outstanding this year, has five sacks. Even backup DE Antwan Barnes has four in a balanced pass-rushing Chargers defense.
Each team has picked off 14 passes, but the Chargers have returned three of them for six points, while the Bengals have just one pick-six on the season.
With a 2-1 disparity in sacks, more interceptions returned for TDs and an additional 52 yards per game given up by the Bengals, I have to say the advantage is all San Diego again.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
4) Run Stopping
4 of 7
San Diego currently has the No. 2-ranked run defense in the league, allowing opponents 89.4 yards per game on the ground. Cincinnati is ranked 22nd with 120.1 rushing yards allowed per game.
One bright spot for the Bengals has been the play of MLB Dhani Jones. His team-leading 78 tackles are almost double that of the next closest player, LB Keith Rivers, who has 43.
The Chargers feature LB Kevin Burnett with 72 tackles, while FS Eric Weddle has added 64 of his own.
As long as the Chargers account for Dhani and take measures to ensure he is not a factor in the running game, the Bolts should be able to run the ball as often as they want to against the Bengals.
If the weather is especially cold and ugly, look for both teams to try to grind it out on the ground. If the Bengals fall behind early in this scenario, they will be hard pressed to attempt a comeback through the air in the frigid temperatures. Look for San Diego to get another pick-six if the Bengals give up on the run. It’s the same with the Chargers, but they have so many more weapons that it won’t be as hard for them to move the ball with Rivers and the Charger passing attack.
With a better defense and more standout players on their side of the ball, I have to give the advantage to the Bolts in a big way once again.
5) Intangibles
5 of 7
If you can’t understand how a team with a No. 2-ranked offense and No. 1-ranked defense needs help making the playoffs, here is where you will find your answer.
Plain and simple, it's fumbles. San Diego has recovered five of them while giving away 15. In both stats the Chargers rank second from the bottom in the entire league.
Simply put, San Diego can’t hold on to the football this year, nor can it force fumbles. Its turnover ratio for interceptions is a decent plus-three, but that minus-10 on fumbles has killed them, along with suspect special teams.
Fortunately for the Chargers, the Bengals are a minus-six to the Chargers' minus-seven in turnover differential. The Bengals are more balanced with their gaffes, as they have a minus-two for fumbles and a minus-four for interceptions.
What does this mean? It means I expect both teams to turn the ball over in this game. If Cincinnati wants to win, this is one area where they will have to be perfect. They will need to take advantage of any San Diego turnovers and not turn the ball over themselves. If they can do that, they will have a chance to win the game.
Conversely, if the Chargers hold on to the ball and take advantage of Cincinnati turnovers, then this game will be an even bigger blowout for the Bolts.
Turnovers aren't the only intangibles. Playing in Cincinnati in the winter favors the home team.The Bengals are out of the playoffs and have nothing to play for except pride.
The Chargers are in a do or die situation with Kansas City. San Diego must win out and hope that KC loses at least one of its remaining two games. That means there is no pressure on the Bengals and all the pressure in the world is hanging over the Bolts.
Some teams thrive under pressure; some choke. Some teams play inspired when they have nothing to play for; others just phone it in. Which team is which will remains to be seen this Sunday. But I expect the Chargers to thrive and the Bengals to wither.
Taking everything into consideration, this should be an advantage for the Bengals. But they are so bad this year that I believe this is a wash. No advantage for either team.
6) Special Teams
6 of 7
With all of the problems the Chargers have had this year on special teams, you’d expect that the Bengals would have the advantage here.
San Diego ranks dead last, allowing its opponents a league worst of 18.9 yards average per punt return. Add to that four blocked punts plus one returned 94 yards for a TD, and there is no way the Bolts can have the advantage here.
Now consider the Bengals' No. 1-ranked average of allowing 4.5 yards per punt return with one block and no returns for TDs, and you can see why the Bengals should be the obvious choice to be favored on special teams.
Also, the Chargers are ranked ninth in the league in kickoff returns, allowing opponents an average of 21.2 yards per return with two returned for TDs. Oddly, even with two kickoffs returned the distance, the Chargers actually have a better return average than their opponents at 23.8 yards per return.
Conversely, Cincinnati has also had two kickoffs returned for TDs and is ranked 18th, allowing opponents 23.6 yards per return while only amassing 21.5 yards themselves. Neither San Diego nor Cincinnati has returned a kickoff or punt the distance itself. The Chargers have averaged slightly better returning punts than the Bengals with a 8.7 average versus a 6.5 average.
On a side note, no San Diego opponent has missed a FG against the Bolts this year. They are a combined 16-of-16, including 2-of-2 from beyond 50 yards.
All in all, the advantage still goes to the Bengals, but just barely and only in so far as punts are concerned. If San Diego can successfully get its punts off and cover the return, then Cincinnati will have no advantage anywhere in the game. If I were Norv Turner, this would be the focus of my special teams practice this week.
Inside the Numbers
7 of 7
When San Diego’s high-powered offense meets Cincinnati’s mediocre defense, that will translate into 24 points for the Chargers.
When Cincinnati’s also-ran offense meets San Diego’s top-ranked defense, that's good enough for 10 points for the Bengals plus a pick-six for the Chargers.
Final score: 31-10 Chargers, with both defenses setting up points for the offense from turnovers.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
.jpg?w=600 "Post-June 1 Trade Candidates ☎️")
.JPG?w=600 "TO Talks Cowboys Relationship")
.jpg?w=600 "Taylor Heinicke Retiring")
.jpg?w=600 "49ers OC Hypes Mike Evans 🤩")