San Francisco 49ers: 10 Bold Offseason Predictions for the Niners
The San Francisco 49ers have a lot of work to do in order to bring this franchise back to being a legitimate playoff contender.
Trying to sneak in with a losing record does not make a legitimate playoff contender, so no matter what happens the rest of this season, it's time to take a look at what the 49ers must do this offseason.
The bottom line for the 49ers is they have overrated their talent level, and the coaching has not gotten anywhere near the best out of the talent the team does have.
In addition, at this point in the season, I would have hoped to see a lot more progress from the rookie crop the 49ers drafted in 2010. Part of this may be poor coaching, and part of it may be bad talent evaluation.
This will be a critical offseason for the 49ers, as they must make some important decisions on the direction of this franchise. Read on for my 10 key moves the Niners must make prior to the 2011 season.
1) Hire a Top-Quality General Manager
1 of 11
The biggest move of Jed York's career as the president of the San Francisco 49ers will be to hire a top-quality GM.
Normally I would leave the most important item for last in the slideshow. However, I have chosen to list it first because all other moves will be predicated on what Jed chooses to do with this decision.
As team president, Jed York will need to give up some control and allow the GM to make the football decisions for the 49ers. The main problem with the 49er franchise starts at the top with its flawed infrastructure.
Let's take a look at the four top people running the 49ers. Team president Jed York is young, charismatic and passionate about the team. In fact, it was his leadership and passion that helped the 49ers get the ballot measure passed in Santa Clara for the 49ers' new stadium.
Jed did an excellent job with the stadium issue, but he is still inexperienced in terms of running a football team. One benefit that Jed does have is that he can call on his uncle Eddie for advice.
Eddie DeBartolo owned the 49ers during their glory years, which included five Super Bowl championships. However, do not forget that Eddie's first major hire was Joe Thomas as the GM, which was a terrible move. He ultimately got it right when he fired Thomas and brought in Bill Walsh, who, along with John McVay, turned the franchise into a winner.
I am willing to give Jed a pass on his first set of decisions, namely Mike Singletary as head coach and Trent Baalke as VP of player personnel. I believe that Jed is a bright guy and, like his uncle, will ultimately get it right.
Jed's main mistake is that he surrounded himself with people who were either new to their positions or had little NFL experience. In the case of Mike Singletary, he had never been a head coach or even a coordinator.
Trent Baalke, who along with Singletary is in charge of all personnel decisions, had also never held a position of such authority before. The 2010 draft picks and other personnel moves have not panned out well for the 49ers. I believe Baalke and Singletary have overrated their talent level; coupled with poor coaching, they have not gotten the best out of their personnel.
In addition to Jed York, Mike Singletary and Trent Baalke, the fourth man at the top is Executive Vice President of Football and Business Operations Paraag Marathe. Prior to joining the 49ers, Marathe had no football experience.
I would allow Marathe to continue to handle contract issues, where he seems competent. However, to give him any authority beyond that is a mistake. There has even been talk of Marathe moving into the GM position, and if that occurred, it would be an extremely poor decision.
What York and the 49ers need to do is start with a strong foundation of knowledgeable football people. I believe the 49ers should make a strong push for Mike Holmgren to come in and take over as the team president and GM. York would still be the owner, but he would need to cede control of the football organization to Holmgren.
Holmgren has strong Bay Area ties and also coached in San Francisco under Bill Walsh. It will take a huge offer to get him away from Cleveland, however. In addition to big money and complete control, the Yorks must get creative in order to bring Holmgren aboard.
My belief is that Holmgren is unlikely to leave his cushy situation in Cleveland unless there is more than money involved. For this reason, I would offer him an ownership stake in the franchise. Perhaps something like a two percent ownership share, plus an additional one percent bonus if the 49ers win the Super Bowl under his management.
It will take something creative like this for the 49ers to lure Holmgren away from Cleveland.
The other thing is that York must be willing to give up his culture of inexperienced "yes men" and allow someone of Holmgren's pedigree to take control.
2) Mike Singletary Must Be Fired
2 of 11
Mike Singletary is a good man. He is principled, honorable, loyal and extremely hard-working. He is the type of person I would be proud to have in my family.
Unfortunately, he is in over his head as the coach of the San Francisco 49ers.
I am a big fan of Mike Singletary, the man, but he will be fired following the 2010 season, and deservedly so.
Jed York has seen the poor personnel decisions, bad game preparation and the inability of the coaching staff to make quick adjustments during the games. It will not matter if the Niners make the playoffs; Singletary will be fired.
I believe Jed began to see how flawed his head coach was when he essentially forced Singletary to fire Jimmy Raye as offensive coordinator after the third game of the season. I do not think for one second that Singletary made that decision, as only one day earlier he stated that Raye would remain through the season. Then 24 hours later, Jimmy Raye was out.
The new GM, whether it be Mike Holmgren as I suggested or someone else, will be charged with making the right decision as to who to bring in to coach the 49ers. The one thing I am convinced of is that the coach in 2011 will not be Mike Singletary.
3) Hire a Strong Offensive-Minded Head Coach
3 of 11
Several weeks ago I wrote that there could be as many as seven or eight head coaches fired during or shortly after the 2010 season. Now, already, there have been three coaches dumped, with many more to come. For this reason, the competition for top-quality head coaches will be intense.
The new GM will need to bring aboard a strong coach who has a good offensive mind. The 49ers' last two coaches, Mike Nolan and Mike Singletary, are defensive guys, and that hasn't worked out well.
The top two sexy choices out there are Bill Cowher and Jon Gruden. I don't think the 49ers can land either one of these two.
Cowher's entire background is in the Midwest and East Coast, and it's unlikely that he would come to San Francisco. In fact, he has already listed three teams he would be most interested in, and the 49ers were not one of them. Cowher mentioned the NY Giants, Houston and Miami as his top three choices, and my guess is that he will end up with the Dolphins.
Jon Gruden does have Bay Area ties, but I think he would want too much control over the organization. This would likely clash with the GM, whether it be Holmgren or someone else. Like Cowher, Gruden will be in high demand, and the 49er job is no longer the favored position it once was.
I believe there are two very good candidates, both of whom are strong offensive-minded coaches and would be willing to coach in San Francisco.
My first choice is Jim Harbaugh. He is a dynamic personality and has a very strong offensive mind. Harbaugh was a very good NFL quarterback, an NFL assistant coach and a head coach at Stanford and the University of San Diego. Harbaugh can also get advice from his brother John, who is the head coach in Baltimore.
Harbaugh has been successful in the NFL as a player and an assistant coach. He has been successful in college and would be my first choice for the 49ers.
My second choice is Brian Billick. He was a successful coach in Baltimore for nine years and won a Super Bowl with the Ravens. Similar to Jim Harbaugh, Billick's background is on the offensive side of the football, which would be vital for the 49ers.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
4) Alex Smith Must Go
4 of 11
Alex Smith was the No. 1 overall draft pick of the San Francisco 49ers back in 2005. In six seasons with the 49ers, he has not shown that he can be a top-flight quarterback. He has had flashes of brilliance but has played just well enough to lose on far too many occasions.
Smith's contract expires after this season, and the 49ers must cut bait and move on. Another team will likely pick up Smith as a backup, and frankly, that's what he should be at this point in his career. I wish him well; he's a nice guy, but he's just not the answer at quarterback for the 49ers.
The other thing is that the 49er fans would probably stage a mutiny if the team signed Smith to a new contract. Sometimes in life you just have to move on, and this is one of those times for both the 49ers and Alex Smith.
5) The 49ers Need to Acquire a Decent Quarterback
5 of 11
I look at every team that is headed to the playoffs, and there is one common thread: All of them have decent quarterbacks. By decent, I would rate many as an "A," but certainly no worse than a "B."
In recent history, the top teams in the NFL have had franchise-type quarterbacks, such as Payton Manning, Drew Brees, Eli Manning and Tom Brady, all Super Bowl champions.
It is incumbent on the 49ers to obtain a franchise-caliber quarterback.
The Philadelphia Eagles have two potential options in Michael Vick, who will be a free agent following this season, or Kevin Kolb. If the Eagles re-sign Vick, then Kolb may be available in a trade. If Philadelphia is unable to sign Vick, they will keep Kolb. In fact, they may keep Kolb no matter what happens with Vick.
You can be sure that Michael Vick will not sign a free-agent deal with San Francisco. First off, there will be many teams throwing huge gobs of money at him, and even if the 49ers offered the most, Vick still would not likely come to San Francisco.
Vick is an East Coast, Southeast guy, and he will sign with a team there. San Francisco is perhaps the most liberal major city in the country, and the Michael Vick dog fighting issue will be re-ignited if he were to come to San Francisco.
Vick wants to put that entire situation behind him. He has paid his debt to society and will not want to dredge up the issue again. All of you hoping for Vick to come to San Francisco should forget it.
Kevin Kolb may be available if the Eagles are able to keep Vick. The 49ers would have to trade their Round 1 draft pick and likely a second- or third-rounder for Kolb. If the Niners could get him for that, I would do it.
If we look to the draft, Andrew Luck is the one quarterback that I believe has everything right now to be a franchise quarterback in the NFL. If there is any way the Niners could package some of their draft picks to get him, I would definitely do that.
Luck has everything a top quarterback needs in today's game. He has a strong arm and is very accurate. He is big, strong and athletic. Luck is also mobile, which is a key asset. He is smart and a good leader.
Andrew Luck is also humble and is down-to-Earth. He won't let his selection as a top draft pick and the immediate fame that goes with it derail him.
Luck also has a great football background. His dad, Oliver Luck, was an NFL quarterback, and he has been coached by another very good NFL quarterback, Jim Harbaugh. Stanford, under Harbaugh, also runs a pro-style offense, which would enable Luck to understand what he's seeing and step into a starting role faster than most.
There will be many doubters out there because for every top-flight college quarterback taken in the first round, there have been several that failed. Let me again remind you that none of the people that bombed out or are close to bombing out, such as Ryan Leaf, Alex Smith, JaMarcus Russell, Akili Smith, David Carr, Brady Quinn, Matt Leinart, Vince Young, etc., have had all of the positives that Andrew Luck has, as I noted above.
There are other potentially good quarterbacks available in the draft. Cam Newton, Jake Locker and Ryan Mallett are all highly touted. The difference between these three and Andrew Luck is that there are question marks with every one of them, whereas Luck is much more polished and ready for the NFL. Andrew Luck will be a star and a franchise quarterback for some lucky team.
Under the current regime, the 49ers will not have the creativity or the guts to do what it takes to get Andrew Luck. It will take a new GM who is unafraid to make a bold move in order to get this done. Again, this is why the GM issue is so important, as all of the other moves depend on who is running the team.
6) The 49ers Must Make At Least One Impact Free-Agent Signing
6 of 11
The San Francisco 49ers have whiffed on far too many free-agent signings. The new GM, hopefully Mike Holmgren, will need to make a bold statement and sign one impact player in free agency.
Ideally, the 49ers can sign one top-flight star player and a couple of other solid players to strengthen their team.
There will be several players available in free agency this coming offseason. The 49ers should make getting a strong pass rusher or lockdown cover cornerback their top priority. Some of the pass rushing defensive ends and linebackers that may be available are Ray Edwards, Shaun Ellis, Richard Seymour, LaMarr Woodley and David Harris.
The top cornerbacks who could become available as free agents are Champ Bailey, Eric Wright and Antonio Cromartie.
My personal preference would be to go out and sign a stud pass rusher. A better pass rush will also make your secondary better, which is a big problem for the 49ers. Richard Seymour would look good in red and gold.
7) Make the Most of This Year's Draft
7 of 11
The 2011 draft will be the most important draft for the 49ers since 2005, when they had the first overall pick and used it on Alex Smith. In 2011, the 49ers should have a pick somewhere around No. 7 or 8 unless they somehow make the playoffs.
In recent years, there have been far too many wasted early-round picks, and that simply cannot happen this time around.
In addition to Alex Smith, we have Kentwan Balmer and Glen Coffee, who are no longer even with the team. Then there are underachievers like Chilo Rachal, and the jury is still out on Anthony Davis and Taylor Mays.
I already have stated that the 49ers should package their top pick along with a second- or maybe two third-rounders in order to move up to get Andrew Luck. If they are unable or unwilling to make a deal to get Luck, then the 49ers will need to assess their options.
Depending on what they can get in free agency, they will have several needs to fill. The top priorities are a strong pass rusher, defensive secondary help, quarterback, offensive line and wide receiver. If this sounds like virtually every unit on the team, you would be correct. I guess that's what happens when your team is 5-9.
Cam Newton may be available when the 49ers pick, but they will need to be sure they have a strong offensive-minded head coach, a good offensive coordinator and a good quarterback coach if they end up taking someone like Newton or Jake Locker. Both of these players are athletic and have strong arms, but they are not nearly as polished as Luck.
The 49ers have, I believe, 10 or 11 picks heading into this year's draft, which is why they should package some of them for Andrew Luck. They can use their remaining picks to solidify some of the need areas I mentioned earlier.
8) Hire a New Offensive Coordinator
8 of 11
The GM will hire a new head coach, and the new head coach will bring in his own guy to be the offensive coordinator. This means that Mike Johnson will be out as the 49ers' offensive coordinator.
It's too bad, because we may never know how much Johnson was forced to run certain plays based on the demands of Mike Singletary. Johnson may have been much more creative if left to his own devices. In fact, I believe one of the many downfalls of Singletary was his involvement in the offense.
Singletary missed out on far better candidates than Jimmy Raye because he insisted on having the final say on the offense. If Singletary would have just entrusted the offense to a top offensive coordinator and focused on the defense and managing the game, he would have been better off.
Johnson will not escape the fallout from the firing of Singletary. Hiring a new offensive coordinator that can get the most out of this offense will be one of the most important decisions for the new head coach.
9) Make a Decision on Greg Manusky's Future
9 of 11
The decision on what to do with Greg Manusky will not be as easy as the decision on Mike Johnson. Manusky is a veteran defensive coach will a good track record.
In the 2010 season, the 49er defense did not play as well as in 2009. How much of this was coaching is hard to say. I believe two other factors are more responsible for this than the coaching.
First, the defensive personnel is simply not that good. The 49ers received very good play from only three of the 11 starters on defense. Only Patrick Willis, Takeo Spikes and Justin Smith stood out as being top performers on a consistent basis. Manny Lawson was good on some plays and in some games, but other times he disappeared.
The rest of the defensive unit doesn't even deserve mention, as the remaining starters and reserves did not measure up. Is this the fault of Greg Manusky, or is this the fault of Trent Baalke and Mike Singletary for not getting the right talent on the team?
The other key issue is that the 49er offensive woes often resulted in the defense being out on the field far too much. When an offense cannot score or cannot even get a first down, the defense is under constant duress. The defense simply wore down late in games, as they were forced to be on the field too much.
My sense is that Greg Manusky will be let go and the new head coach will bring in his own man. If this happens, Manusky is a quality coach and will land on his feet. It would not surprise me, however, if Manusky is retained.
10) The NFL Labor Dispute May Have a Huge Impact
10 of 11
The current labor situation in the NFL is a looming dark cloud over the 2011 season. The owners and players union have not made progress on a new collective bargaining agreement, and NFL commissioner Roger Goodell has stated that there is a real possibility of a lockout.
If a lockout looks like an impending reality, many teams may not hire a head coach until the labor dispute is resolved. Nobody wants to pay someone who may be forced to sit around for months as the labor negotiations take place.
This is an extremely worrisome issue for the 49ers and Jed York. Jed does not have the depth of contacts throughout the league that most of the other owners would have. It will therefore take the 49ers a longer time to move on their decisions. Other teams may be much more nimble, and that could put the 49ers in even worse shape as they try to put a strong coaching staff together.
This is why it is so important for the 49ers and York to hire a strong GM as soon as possible. The new GM needs to be someone with a strong track record of success and a wide range of NFL contacts, and is well respected throughout the league.
York must act decisively in order to put the GM in place so the coaching search can begin. Even if the 49ers do not officially hire their new head coach until they're sure there's going to be a 2011 season, they need to have him already lined up and ready to go. Once the decision is made that the season will move forward, the coach needs to come aboard immediately.
This Offseason Will Be Pivotal for the 49ers
11 of 11
Although not the most attractive coaching spot available, the San Francisco 49ers do have some talent. A new GM and head coach would not come to San Francisco without some nucleus of good players to begin with. This is always attractive for anyone coming into a new franchise.
This offseason will be a pivotal one for Jed York and the 49ers. I have outlined the critical steps the 49ers must take in order to get the franchise back on the right track. If York doesn't handle this well, the 49ers will be destined for many more years of losing.
This is the most important period we have seen in many years for the future success or failure of the San Francisco 49ers.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
.jpg?w=600 "Post-June 1 Trade Candidates ☎️")
.JPG?w=600 "TO Talks Cowboys Relationship")
.jpg?w=600 "Taylor Heinicke Retiring")
.jpg?w=600 "49ers OC Hypes Mike Evans 🤩")