NFL Trade Rumors: How Would a Lockout Affect the Trade Market?

As the NFL moves into Week 16, there is one thing that hasn't changed: There is still no new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA).

As most of you who have been following the NFL this year know, there has been a complete standstill in negotiations with the NFL Players Association (NFLPA), which could end up forcing a lockout for the 2011 season.

With the possibility of an 18 game season being a part of the new CBA, the way teams function and do business could (and should) change vastly.

Before we get into the new-look NFL when the next CBA comes around, let's consider what a potential lockout could do to the NFL trade market.

As I see it, the lockout could do one of two things to the trade market:

1. Trades go through the roof: With uncertainty about contract status, compensation rules, and all that sort of thing, teams could look to either unload talent with their eyes set on the future, or stockpile players that become expendable with the potentiality of an expanded roster.
2. The trade market goes dead: As a matter of personal opinion, I find this to be the more likely of the two options. With a complete lack of certainty concerning the future of the NFL, teams could simply freeze in place as many did this year, especially since there is no clear picture of what the salary cap will end up looking like.

The biggest issue with this is going to end up being about the salary cap. The San Diego Chargers were one of the teams this year that showed an unwillingness to sign long-term deals this year on account of cap uncertainty.

Of their many restricted free agents, only one (Marcus McNeill) received a long-term deal, and the biggest name on the list, Vincent Jackson, remains on a one-year RFA tender deal.

There will likely be teams, though, that will be willing to make plenty of deals in the absence of a CBA, because it could allow them to pick up situational players in the likelihood of an expanded roster.

As a matter of personal opinion, it seems to me like the most likely outcome will be a complete deadening of the trade market, on account of future uncertainty. But reading minds is a tricky business. NFL teams could really go either way on this one.