Packers vs. Patriots: Mission Impossible for Green Bay? Not So Fast

Green Bay Packers coach Mike McCarthy said this week that his team "is nobody's underdog."

While you wouldn't expect your coach to say anything but, the fact remains that McCarthy is in the minority with that belief. 

Let's be honest, the odds are stacked against the Packers:

1. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers is listed as doubtful. Chances are low that he plays Sunday.
2. The Patriots have won 26 straight games at home, and have only lost one game to an NFC team since Gillette Stadium opened nine seasons ago (ironically, vs. Packers in 2002).
3. Tom Brady is the hottest quarterback in the NFL, and clearly leads the MVP chase. Brady has thrown 15 touchdowns the past five games, and hasn't had a quarterback rating under 110 in those games. 
4. The Patriots as a team are on a roll. They've scored 196 points the past five games (39.2 average), and their point differential in those games is a staggering 108 points. 

Obviously, from just those observations, the Packers look like a long shot on Sunday night. In fact, it's looking more and more like an impossible task at hand. 

But is it?

As any fan could tell you, no game in the NFL is "impossible." The Patriots are the best example of that—their perfect season ended in 2007 with a loss in the Super Bowl. Last week, the Lions made sure the Packers were no stranger to that concept either.

So what do the Packers have to do—realistically or not—on Sunday night to pull off the upset?

Run the football

Packers' fans will laugh when they read this, but it might be the best chance the Packers have at beating the Patriots. 

In New England's two losses this season, they were punched in the mouth by teams that could run the ball. 

The Jets beat the Pats in Week 2 with 136 yards rushing, and the Browns routed New England 34-14 with 230 yards on the ground. 

Running the football not only wears down a suspect defense, but it also helps keep Brady and that offense off the field. 

Now, in theory, this is the perfect offensive plan for the Packers. Run the ball, help out your young quarterback in his first start, and keep Brady on the sidelines. Simple enough.

Executing that plan is going to be another story. The Packers don't have the rushing attack of either the Jets or Browns, and it currently ranks among the NFL's worst. 

That doesn't mean the Packers should shy away from trying though. If Green Bay realistically expects to throw the ball 35-40 times with Matt Flynn and win the game, they have another thing coming. 

That's just not the recipe to beating this team. For Green Bay to win Sunday night, their running game will need to have their best performance of the season. 

Packers' goal for the upset: 150 yards rushing

Matt Flynn Needs to Be Careful

While having Aaron Rodgers in the line up would help the Packers' chances immensely, the game isn't out of reach just because Flynn is (most likely) starting. 

Flynn is a better quarterback than Colt McCoy, and he convincingly beat the Patriots as the Browns' starting quarterback a few weeks back.

However, Flynn would do well to emulate the performance of McCoy from that game. 

The stats don't jump off the page to you: 14-of-19 for 174 yards and one touchdown rushing, but zero turnovers.

That last part is the most important. I think we all can agree that Flynn could throw for 174 yards and manufacture a touchdown, but can he play turnover free? 

I said earlier that the Patriots' defense is suspect, and the numbers back that up (375 yards/game, 27th overall). But they've stayed effective as a unit because they are adept at getting turnovers. 

New England's defense has 20 interceptions and seven fumble recoveries this season, and that's been able to mask their deficiencies on that side of the ball. 

In fact, they've been especially "ball-hawking" of late: 13 turnovers caused in the past five games.

If Flynn can be safe with the ball, and avoid any bone-headed mistakes like in Detroit last week, there is yards and points to be had on this Patriots' defense. 

Goal: Zero offensive turnovers

Rushing the quarterback

Brady is currently on a historic stretch of quarterback play; there's no two ways around it. He's locked in, and it might just take the season ending for that play to come to a halt. 

However, if the Packers have any plans on slowing him down, they are going to have to pressure him consistently Sunday night. 

While Brady might be the most aware quarterback in the pocket the NFL has ever seen, he's not invincible. No quarterback likes pressure in his face, and no quarterback likes picking himself off the ground time after time after getting hit. 

Those are two things the Packers need to do a lot of on Sunday night. If the Packers let Brady get comfortable, he'll pick this defense apart no matter how good it's played this season. 

That pass rush might begin and end with Clay Matthews. He's been slowed by a shin injury and lack of practice in recent weeks, but there'd be no better comeback game than Sunday night. 

Because without Cullen Jenkins, where else is the pass rush going to come from? I think defensive coordinator Dom Capers is going to be conservative in his blitz packages because he fears Brady.

That means the pass rush will need to come from the guys up front. 

Can B.J. Raji be a force up the middle? Will Erik Walden, C.J. Wilson, or Jarius Wynn provide any pressure filling in? Those are questions that the Packers need to answer with a "yes."

Goal: Three or more sacks

Win the Special Teams

The Packers' special teams have been a roller-coaster ride for much of the McCarthy era, but they'll need to peak on Sunday night. 

The Patriots have dangerous returners in Brandon Tate and Julian Edelman, and they can turn a game in an instant if the Packers don't bottle them up. Tate has two kick return touchdowns this season, and Edelman had a touchdown overturned on a punt last week.

There's no room for little mistakes either—giving Brady and the offense a short field is flirting with defensive disaster. 

In addition, Patriots kicker Shayne Graham hasn't missed a field goal since filling for the injured Stephen Gostkowski, and punter Zoltan Mesko has kicked well in the conditions so far. 

The Packers counter with Mason Crosby and Tim Masthay, and that shouldn't exactly inspire much confidence in Green Bay's specialists. 

Crosby has been up-and-down kicking in cold weather, and Masthay was terrible two weeks ago punting outside against the 49ers. 

Both will need to be near-perfect on Sunday. Crosby needs to hit every opportunity he gets—snowstorm or not—and Masthay has to do a better job at giving the Patriots long fields to work with. 

Goal: No big returns, no missed FG's, and no shanked punts

Overall

If the Packers win this game, it will mark one of the biggest upsets for Green Bay in the regular season in quite some time. 

While I think the Packers need to do all of the things I mentioned above to win, there's probably a lot more I could have added to the list. 

Sure, running the football is important, but the Packers also need to protect their quarterback leaps and bounds better than they did a week ago. Green Bay won't win with a collapsing pocket every drop back.

Flynn playing mistake free football has to happen, but they also need Brady and the Patriots to turn the ball over. He's only thrown an interception in two games this season, and New England hasn't turned it over in five games.

Rushing the passer is a no-brainer in any football game, but the Packers also need to stop the Patriots' suddenly-improving rushing attack. For a group that gave up 190 yards to the Lions, that might also be a tall task. 

And finally, special teams needs to favor the Packers, but Green Bay is also going to need some luck. The Patriots have been lucky in the snow: they've won 11 straight under Bill Belichick in the elements.

Can the Packers win this game? Of course they can. Any team can beat any team on any given Sunday. 

But I wouldn't bet on it. There's a lot that needs to go right in Foxborough, Massachusetts on Sunday night for the Packers to return to Green Bay with a 9-5 record. 

I still think the Packers will play better than many will predict, and Matt Flynn won't be a disaster, but Tom Brady will be too much. Patriots win 34-21.