NFL 2011 Predictions: Who Will Start for Each Team at Quarterback?
The 2010 NFL playoffs picture will break itself down for us very soon. We can be sure of that.
Several teams will have been led to the postseason by exceptional play from their quarterback, while others will have fallen short of expectations as a direct result of subpar play from the signal caller.
Thus, the above question is begged. Here are my opinions.
Arizona Cardinals—Andrew Luck
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The highest rated quarterback in the 2010 draft, Luck would be foolish not to come out of Stanford this year.
The Cardinals would be fortunate for Luck to fall to them, but they have almost guaranteed a top-five pick in the 2011 NFL Draft. Clearly, the Cardinals lack any talent at the quarterback position. With other pieces like Larry Fitzgerald, Chris Wells and Tim Hightower, they could benefit from a little Luck.
Atlanta Falcons—Matt Ryan
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Matt Ryan is on pace to set career marks in every category, having already totaled a career-high 25 touchdowns and just 100 short of his highest total in yards.
"Matty Ice" has led the Falcons on several game-winning drives, too. Most importantly, his presence has helped the Falcons instill a winning mentality after decades of futility and inconsistency. The Falcons now have three consecutive winning seasons in a row, the most in team history.
Baltimore Ravens—Joe Flacco
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The Ravens franchise quarterback has made strides in his third year, and is now surrounded by a group of talented receivers that can take advantage of his skill set. He has already set a career mark for touchdowns in fewer attempts than before, and is well on his way to his career mark in yards as well.
Flacco was considered by some a reach in the first round, but his stats are proof to the contrary. We've yet to see him step up in clutch situations, but there's plenty of time left for that in his young career.
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Buffalo Bills—Ryan Fitzpatrick
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While many considered the Bills front-runners in the "Andrew Luck sweepstakes", Fitzpatrick has effectively removed them from the running for a first round quarterback with his effective play. He can't take much of the blame for the team's 4-10 record.
In fact, with 2,749 yards, 23 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, it's safe to say he's the reason they're not a whole lot worse. The Bills offense continues to play hard for Fitzpatrick, even though their season's been over for quite some time.
Carolina Panthers—Jimmy Clausen
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Clausen has had a very unsuccessful rookie season, throwing one touchdown and seven interceptions while completing only 52.7 percent of his passes. Rookie quarterbacks tend to struggle, though, and the Panthers offense has been just as inept with other guys under center.
His fate could ultimately depend upon whomever is selected to succeed John Fox as Carolina's head coach. It may help to remember, though, that he also struggled in his freshman year at Notre Dame, and that it could simply be a matter of time before he becomes a serviceable quarterback in the NFL. In what could be another rebuilding year for the Panthers, it couldn't hurt to give him another try.
Chicago Bears—Jay Cutler
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Since joining the Bears almost two years ago, Jay Cutler has gained a reputation for being consistently inconsistent. He's shown just enough potential in Mike Martz's system to keep the skeptics off his back, but 44 touchdown passes and 38 interceptions in his two-year stint aren't exactly numbers to be proud of.
Still, I don't think the Cutler era is over, whether Chicago fans like it or not. If the Bears can put a solid offensive line around him and get him a better No. 1 option in the receiving game, Cutler could still put it together.
Cincinnati Bengals—Carson Palmer
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Marvin Lewis likely won't be back as the team's head coach in 2011, even before what Terrell Owens had to say about him. Still, Carson Palmer is hardly the reason for the Bengals' lack of success in 2010. Although he must shoulder some blame, he hasn't gotten much production from the running game, either.
With his experience and his ceiling, Palmer will likely have another chance to prove himself under a new head coach, if only as an interim quarterback to mentor a new quarterback.
Cleveland Browns—Colt McCoy
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First it was Jake Delhomme, then it was Seneca Wallace. Colt McCoy began the season with very little hope of starting this season, especially after Mike Holmgren all but verbally damned him to the bench for the year. In the limited action he's seen, he's given the Browns an unusual ray of hope at quarterback.
With the assistance of one Peyton Hillis, he's helped the Browns take down powerhouses such as the Saints and Patriots. With a name like Colt McCoy, it's no wonder he's a great quarterback.
Dallas Cowboys—Tony Romo
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I might be going out on a limb here, but I don't think Jon Kitna's done enough to wrestle the starting job away from the Romo-sapien. The Cowboys still feature one of the most talent-laden offenses in the league, and now, with an offense-driven head coach at the helm, Romo could flourish even more than before.
Denver Broncos—Tim Tebow
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Before Sunday's game against the Raiders, Tim Tebow was nothing more than a novelty quarterback used in very spotty situations. I won't try to argue that the Raiders are a top defense, but he produced the team's only two touchdowns and didn't turn the ball over. As was his convention in Florida, he ran all over the field on eight carries for 78 yards and a score.
Many will argue that Kyle Orton should be the starter next year, and will point to his immense yardage totals as proof. However, he has the seventh-highest total in pass attempts at 498 and was very much a product of Josh McDaniels' pass-happy system. A system that, needless to say, is no longer implemented in Denver.
The future is still murky for the man from the swamp, but if he can earn the confidence of interim coach Eric Studesville and owner Pat Bowlen, he could lock up the starting job for 2011 despite the presence of Orton.
Detroit Lions—Matthew Stafford
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If only Matthew Stafford could stay on the field, who knows if the Lions might have won a few more than four games at this stage in the season? In three games, he had six touchdowns, just one interception and 535 yards.
The Lions still need to find that winning mentality, but maybe Stafford can bring it with him when he hits the field again in 2011.
Green Bay Packers—Aaron Rodgers
12 of 32
Matt Flynn had a good game against the Patriots, but he could have thrown six touchdown passes and the starting job would still belong to Aaron Rodgers. He hasn't been as efficient as last season, in which he only threw seven interceptions, but he's getting by with a patchwork offense that is missing its best running back and tight end.
Aaron Rodgers has a chance to toss all those numbers aside and show the moxie of a seasoned vet in the postseason if the Packers can make a Super Bowl run.
Houston Texans—Matt Schaub
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Matt Schaub and the Houston Texans have set an NFL record for almost-comebacks. They have been behind by two touchdowns four times, come roaring back to tie the game and lose in the fourth quarter or overtime in those contests.
Of course, the blame for that can hardly fall on Schaub's shoulders. Maybe if the Texans defense wasn't too busy letting the opposing team march up and down the field at a 377 yard-per-game and 28-point clip, they wouldn't be in those holes to begin with.
Indianapolis Colts—Peyton Manning
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No surprise here, either. What, you thought Curtis Painter would supplant Bill Polian's wunderkind at the helm of the Colts offense?
A streak of three games in which Peyton Manning threw 11 interceptions may not be good for his stats, but it would take a streak of 16 games in which Manning played the worst football of his career in order for the Colts not to re-sign their former No. 1 overall pick.
Jacksonville Jaguars—David Garrard
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Garrard had been on the decline for a couple of seasons before this year, but has performed very well all year long. He's throwing the ball 200 fewer times than last year, but is completing a career-high 65.8 percent of his passes, and has thrown a career-high 22 touchdowns. Furthermore, he's added a career-high in touchdown runs (four).
If the Jaguars can get this kind of play out of Garrard consistently season after season, they'll be set at quarterback for a long time.
Kansas City Chiefs—Matt Cassel
16 of 32
After a rough start to his time in Kansas City, Cassel has quickly turned things around and is running a great ball-control offense. He's thrown 23 touchdowns and just four interceptions. Of course, it helps that he has the league's No. 1 rush attack behind him, but there's no denying that he's gotten it done with lesser talent at wide receiver (well, except for that Dwayne Bowe guy).
Just one calendar year after there were big question marks surrounding his security as the starter, Cassel is entrenched as the quarterback for the Chiefs for years to come.
Miami Dolphins—Kevin Kolb
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Whether the next head coach of the Miami Dolphins is Bill Cowher, Jon Gruden or any other big name, it appears the Chad Henne era is over. Not many people have anything nice to say about the former Michigan product, and he's had more than enough time to acclimate to the NFL.
Kevin Kolb doesn't have much trade value at this stage, but it may suit the Eagles to trade him to at least get something for him. He may be an even better fit in an offense that wouldn't ask him to do quite as much, but simply to control the ball instead of to throw it 30 to 40 times a game. He also has the arm and accuracy to take advantage of Brandon Marshall.
Minnesota Vikings—Kyle Orton
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Regardless of his performance on Monday night, Brett Favre will retire in 2011.
Vikings owner Zygi Wilf notoriously avoids drafting quarterbacks for the sake of finding one that already has NFL experience. I think it's safe to say he's learned his lesson from Tarvaris Jackson, too.
Orton was thrust into the role of a starter in a system that doesn't play to his strengths and asks him to throw far too often. He would be a much better fit in Leslie Frazier's ball-control system. And if you ask me, he'd be getting a lot of help from a talented offense featuring Adrian Peterson, Percy Harvin, Sidney Rice, Visanthe Shiancoe and others.
New England Patriots—Tom Brady
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This one's a no-brainer. Brady is playing some of the best football of his career (yes, even comparable to 2007) and is clearly the engine that keeps the Patriots offense running. His percentage of interceptions per throw is a career-low .9 percent, and currently leads the league. He's just 16 throws short of Joe Theismann's record of 308 consecutive throws without an interception.
After signing the largest per-year contract for a quarterback in league history, Tom Brady is locked in as the Patriots starter possibly until he retires.
New Orleans Saints—Drew Brees
20 of 32
Tom Brady. Peyton Manning. Drew Brees. It's the triumvirate of the best starting quarterbacks in the league.
Brees had led the Saints on the longest standing win streak in the league, which lasted six games. He has thrown more interceptions this year, but is still completing a ridiculous 69 percent of his passes. There's no chance anyone supplants Brees anytime soon.
New York Giants—Eli Manning
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With a last name like "Manning," it's no wonder the Giants haven't been in the market for a quarterback for the past seven years. With better weapons around him, though, he's been making strides and has posted a career-high in touchdowns. Still, he's tied his career mark for interceptions, but that's hardly enough cause to dethrone him as the starter.
New York Jets—Mark Sanchez
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He entered the season with big question marks around his ability to lead the Jets' offense. After leading several game-winning drives and performing overall much better than last season, it appears "The Sanchize" is here to stay.
He's completing about the same percentage of his throws, and like most quarterbacks, he's still prone to off games. But with more passes for more yards, touchdowns and less interceptions than last year, the leash is coming off, and the maturation process could be accelerated.
Oakland Raiders—Jason Campbell
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Maybe Jason Campbell isn't the permanent answer at quarterback for the Raiders, but after a successful season that's far exceeded the expectations of even the most avid Raiders fans, isn't it worth it to give him another year?
Eleven touchdowns, eight interceptions and 2,001 yards aren't the most gaudy numbers, but having a quarterback getting more touchdowns than interceptions must give the Raiders hope, especially with the development of young weapons like Louis Murphy, Jacoby Ford, Darius Heyward-Bey, Darren McFadden and Michael Bush.
Philadelphia Eagles—Michael Vick
24 of 32
I don't think this one needs any explanation. Not as much, anyway, as Michael Vick's desire to own a dog. That sound you heard after their mind-blowing 28-point scoring spree on Sunday? That was the Giants and several thousand jaws hitting the floor.
But that's the level of play Michael Vick has brought all year long. He adds an x-factor to the Eagles offense like of which no other quarterback in the league. This was never more evident than when he ducked out of an impossible pass rush and broke a 35-yard run like it was nothing.
Twenty-eight passing/rushing touchdowns and just five interceptions? In the words of Deion Sanders, "PAY DA MAN!"
Pittsburgh Steelers—Ben Roethlisberger
25 of 32
Roethlisberger is having one of the most efficient seasons of his career, and is currently at just a 1.5 percent interception ratio. More importantly than any number I could throw out there is his toughness: he stayed in the game despite suffering a broken nose against the Ravens.
The only thing that could possibly stand in the way of Roethlisberger retiring a Steeler is his inability to stay out of the press clippings. Dan Rooney takes the integrity of his organization very seriously.
San Diego Chargers—Philip Rivers
26 of 32
Rivers was enjoying an MVP season in which it appeared he might break Dan Marino's single-season record for passing yards. He'll set a personal record, but I'm sure he would rather have Marino's.
And he's doing it all with third and fourth-stringers catching passes at wide receiver. No reason to think Rivers is going anywhere as the Chargers' starting quarterback for years to come.
San Francisco 49ers—Troy Smith
27 of 32
There are two things that are almost certain for the 49ers in the near future: The head coach's last name will no longer be Singletary, and the 49ers quarterback's last name will be Smith. My money's on Troy.
Alex Smith was on his last lifeline with Singletary, but after several unimpressive seasons, the Alex Smith era is likely over no matter the case. It's time for something new, but Troy Smith's job also depends on who is brought in to replace Singletary.
Seattle Seahawks—Jake Locker
28 of 32
Matt Hasselbeck earned a vote of confidence for this season, but it's hard to imagine him remaining the starter at quarterback for Seattle after the infinite struggles of this season. Charlie Whitehurst may or may not be the quarterback of the future for the Seahawks.
The Seahawks don't have a very high pick, but Carroll will be happy to go get the local Washington product Jake Locker. This is a typical Carroll move, as a man who loves to be a crowd pleaser. Locker is a talented quarterback, and was once the No. 1 prospect for the NFL draft. There have been some questions as to whether that talent translates to the NFL level, but with Carroll's experience at both levels, he could be the perfect coach to bring Locker along.
St. Louis Rams—Sam Bradford
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Even Sam Bradford is surprised at how quickly he's acclimated to the NFL game. In his rookie season, leading an offense that's been without its two best options at receiver, Bradford has been efficient (59.6 percent completions), even if he hasn't been deadly (5.9 yards per attempt).
Judging from what we saw from Bradford in college, it shouldn't be long before the leash is off and he's making all the throws. And to think there were big questions about the durability of his shoulder. Now we just have to see if his shoulder is durable enough to carry that chip on it for the foreseeable future.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers—Josh Freeman
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What a difference a year has made for the former Kansas State product. After posting a 3-6 record as a rookie, in a year in which he threw almost twice as many interceptions (18) as touchdowns (10), Freeman is playing some of the most efficient football at quarterback in the league. In fact, his 1.4 percent interception ratio is third lowest in the league behind only Matt Cassel and Tom Brady.
Freeman has turned the Buccaneers ship around and has them vying for a playoff spot just a year after a 3-13 season.
Tennessee Titans—Vince Young
31 of 32
The triangle of doom that's been Titans owner Bud Adams, coach Jeff Fisher and Vince Young is just about at the boiling point. Adams has already said that he supports Vince Young as his quarterback of the future, all but verbally dismissing Fisher's distaste for the inconsistent quarterback once again.
Thus, Fisher's job security next year may ultimately depend on his willingness to start Young. The same will go for whomever Fisher's heir may be.
Washington Redskins—Ryan Mallett
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Shanahan has never shied away from drafting a quarterback in the first round, having drafted two in a span of six years after the retirement of John Elway.
Mallett's accuracy really improved in his senior year, and he will be quick to embrace the coaching philosophies of a legend like Shanahan. This could be a match made in heaven.
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