New York Jets vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: Keys to Stay Atop the AFC North
The Pittsburgh Steelers and New York Jets are two teams going in different directions.
Pittsburgh has won four in a row, vaulting to the top of the AFC North while New York has only scored nine points in the last two weeks in losses to New England and Miami.
The losses have dropped the Jets to the sixth seed in the AFC, and they will be trying to find or rediscover their swagger Sunday at Heinz Field.
On the other sideline, the Steelers, while winning, need to get their offense going.
Over the past three weeks, Pittsburgh has only scored two offensive touchdowns, with one of those set up by a turnover deep in their opponent’s end.
An improved rushing attack against New York’s third-rated rush defense would be a start. Of greater importance, however, will be the play-calling of Bruce Arians, particularly in the red zone.
It will also be important for the Steelers to get out to a fast start. The Jets have allowed 27 points in the first quarter over the last two weeks.
A win for Pittsburgh will put them one step closer to locking up the second in the AFC, while a loss would surely tighten up the AFC North race for the final three weeks.
Mend(enhall) the Run
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Though he is about to surpass his career high of 1,108 yards and ranks ninth in the league, Rashard Mendenhall has not had a great season.
His 3.9-yards-per-carry average is tied for second worst amongst the Top 15 rushers and has only averaged over 4.0 yards per carry once in the past four weeks.
For the season, Mendenhall only has three 100-yard games, with only one occurring since Ben Roethlisberger’s return.
Mendenhall and the Steelers may have a tough time getting going against the Jets, who allow only 88.5 yards per game on the ground.
If he is going to be successful, Mendenhall will have to hit the hole. Over the past couple of weeks, he has spent too much time dancing in the backfield looking for the big gain rather than trying to pick up positive yardage.
Another consideration that Pittsburgh may want to consider is to hand the ball to Isaac Redman.
Mendenhall has 275 carries for the season, ranking him third in the league, and he may not have it in his legs to go up against another physical defense.
Redman is fresh, having only 44 carries this season, and his tough running should suit the frigid weather conditions well.
In games in which Redman carried the ball at least five times, he has averaged 4.9 yards per carry.
An improved ground game should also help the Steelers put the ball in the end zone. But unless there is a commitment, they will not be able to establish the run.
Make the Red Zone a Green Zone
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Pittsburgh never seems to have a problem driving the ball inside of their opponent’s 20-yard line. But the Steelers offense seems to treat the red zone like a traffic light, where red means stop.
On the season, Pittsburgh has only scored touchdowns on 44 percent of their red zone trips and has only converted on two of their last six trips.
All too often, the Steelers do not score because of questionable play-calling.
Whether it is trying to run the ball against a stout Baltimore rush defense or sending every receiving option to the end zone against Cincinnati, Pittsburgh is not creating matchup problems with their offensive weapons.
The Steelers will need to find a way to run the ball when near the goal line. Too often, they are stoned for no gain or even a loss.
Redman has the nickname “Redzone” for a reason, and that is because he can run the ball with power near the goal line. Arians needs to get him the ball with a fullback ahead of him in these situations.
Pittsburgh also has a group of receivers dangerous after the catch. Rather than sending every receiver into the end zone, they will need to look for short, quick routes and allow the receiver to make a play after the catch.
With the likely return of Heath Miller, the Steelers will have another option they have ignored when in scoring position. He only has one touchdown this year.
It will be important that Arians designs plays for Roethlisberger to go to his secondary options, because Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis will certainly shut down Pittsburgh’s top option.
The offense will have to do better than field goals if they expect to beat the Jets.
A Not-So-Welcome Holmes
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Santonio Holmes is playing in Pittsburgh for the first time since being traded to the Jets, and the Steelers are more than aware of what he can do, particularly the player who will be covering him, Ike Taylor.
“Santonio came off his four-game suspension and is really doing his thing, turning into a man, coming up late in big games—three touchdowns I think in three games, game-winning touchdowns," Taylor said. "We know what 'Tone can do. You can see (quarterback Mark) Sanchez looking for him every game. That's what he does.”
Taylor will have his work cut out for him. Though Holmes has only played nine games, Holmes is third on the team in receptions and touchdowns with 41 and four, respectively, and second on the team with 620 yards.
It is unlikely that Taylor will stay on Holmes for the entire game, but he should be on him for most of it. He is the Steelers' best cover man and an outstanding tackler which could prevent Holmes from turning a short catch into a long gain.
Ryan Clark could also be a factor in double coverage if the Jets look for Holmes deep, and he is ready for the challenge.
“I'm excited about it,” Clark said. “First of all, excited because he's playing well. I think he's an amazing player…Next week I hope he doesn't catch a pass.”
Pittsburgh can help prevent him from catching a pass by attacking Mark Sanchez.
Sanchez has struggled the last two weeks, completing 17-of-33 passes against the Patriots, and was even worse against the Dolphins, completing only 17-of-44 attempts. He's thrown four interceptions over that time and has been sacked seven times, including six times last week.
The Steelers pass rush has been clicking lately, and they will want to continue to force Sanchez into mistakes, particularly playing in cold weather, conditions where he is not at his best.
It will be the first time that Sanchez gets to play against the Steelers defense, and he will be tested early and often.
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Spotlight Player: Offense
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Mike Wallace has nothing against Holmes, but he did take his spot, and he should have a bit extra motivation to show what he is capable of.
Wallace will likely see a lot of Revis, which means his opportunities will be few and far between, so it is vital that he makes the most of these.
It has been three weeks since Wallace has scored a touchdown, which also coincides with the last time he had a reception over 40 yards.
With his elite speed, Wallace may be able to beat Revis, or at least, open up opportunities for the rest of the receivers against a relatively weak secondary.
Spotlight Player: Defense
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James Harrison was held off the stat sheet for the first time in a long time last week. He also watched teammates Troy Polamalu and LaMarr Woodley each have huge games, scoring touchdowns and making plays.
It is not Harrison’s style to be a spectator. He wants to be a disruptive force, and he will have an opportunity to blitz Sanchez.
New York’s strength on offense is running the ball, and no one has successfully run against Pittsburgh this season. That means this game could very well be in the hands of Sanchez.
Harrison will look to bounce back and have a big game. Not only do I expect to see Harrison record at least one sack, a forced fumble is also not out of the question.
Game Notes
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Sunday’s game will be Pittsburgh’s only 4:15 p.m. kickoff of the season.
The Steelers will look to improve to 9-2 against AFC opponents.
Pittsburgh is 16-3 all-time against New York, including 7-0 at home.
The Steelers' last loss to the Jets came in 2007, 19-16 in OT.
Pittsburgh and New York have split their last four games.
Heath Miller passed his concussion test and is expected to play.
Mike Wallace needs 54 receiving yards to reach 1,000 for the season.
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