New England Patriots vs. Green Bay Packers: Breaking Down the Matchups
With NFL Week 15 action coming on strong, the New England Patriots have a chance to really tighten their stranglehold on the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a win over the Green Bay Packers.
The Packers won't roll over easy, though. Their top-ranked defense threatens to shut down an offense that ranks in the same way—No. 1.
How will the match-ups break down? Who holds the key advantages? Which players are most important to a win for each team?
I'll address these questions and more in my breakdown of the Sunday night game.
Let's get down to business...
Patriots Passing Game Vs. Packers Pass Defense
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Without a doubt, this is the match-up everyone will have their eyes on. The Patriots have decimated some tough defenses over the past few weeks, including the Steelers, the Jets, and the Bears. Coincidentally, the Jets and Bears were both ranked third in total defense heading into their match-ups against the Patriots, and both left with some severe lumps on those numbers.
The Packers? They rank third against the pass, and currently first overall in points against. Their DVOA from Football Outsiders puts them as the fourth-best in the league, so the numbers don't lie.
The Patriots offense, not surprisingly, ranks first in the league in points scored, and eighth in total yards. Their first-overall offensive DVOA is also more proof for the pudding.
Tramon Williams and Charles Woodson are playing great, but the Patriots offense has proven too deep and diverse for just two talented corners to defend. Heck, even the absence of Frank Zombo could be detrimental with Rob Gronkowski always a threat to pull in a touchdown or two.
This will be a tough match-up, but this Patriots offense is on a warpath, and until it gives me reason to think otherwise, I'll pick them every time.
Advantage: Patriots
Patriots Running Game Vs. Packers Run Defense
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The Patriots' rush attack ranks 14th in the league from a yardage standpoint, but their DVOA puts them as the no. 1 rush attack in all of football. The past two weeks, especially, have been impressive, with dominant performances from the running game against run defenses that were considered tops in the league.
The Packers aren't one of those run defenses. Their run defense ranks 19th in DVOA, and in the bottom half in the league in just about every statistical category that matters.
The big men up front for the Patriots could have a much easier task on Sunday night, facing a defensive line that could be without one of its anchors, Cullen Jenkins.
Based on those numbers and those factors, I think the choice is pretty obvious.
Advantage: Patriots
Packers Passing Game Vs. Patriots Pass Defense
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The receiving duo of Greg Jennings and Donald Driver is a substantial mismatch for the Patriots, whose corners don't match up well to the physicality of those two receivers.
However, this one all comes down to whether it's Aaron Rodgers or Matt Flynn taking the snaps. The Packers' pass attack averages 252 yards per game and has 23 touchdowns to its name this season.
Of course, the Patriots give up yards in bunches, but their key to victory has been capitalizing on the mistakes of their opponent. Thus, if Rodgers starts this game, the advantage has to go to the Packers. Rodgers has only thrown 10 interceptions this year so far. With Matt Flynn under center, the Patriots stand a much better chance of confusing the quarterback and creating those key turnovers.
Advantage: Unknown
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Packers Running Game Vs. Patriots Run Defense
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Statistically, the Packers rush attack ranks out as one of the worst in the league. Their DVOA, however, tells a different story about what should be considered a top-10 rush attack. They may not be getting yards in bunches, but they're running effectively when they do so. With only 325 rush attempts vs. 439 pass attempts (close to a 1:3 ratio), that's not very often.
There should be some opportunities for the Packers to exploit the Patriots run defense, too. Brandon Spikes is serving game two of the four he was docked for dodging the PED policy. He has been one of their most effective run defenders, and even though Gary Guyton had a nice game in pass defense against the Bears, he still has some considerable question marks in the running game.
The Patriots have played solid run defense against some talented backs, including Adrian Peterson, but they rank as the 29th run defense in the league in DVOA.
Realistically, the Packers could run right at Guyton and make the Patriots pay for Spikes' transgressions.
Advantage: Packers
Special Teams
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As the weather gets worse in New England, the importance of special teams play is on the rise. Julian Edelman had a great game against the Bears, with two returns for 43 yards. One of them was a return for a touchdown that was negated by a holding call at the line of scrimmage, a hold that hardly seemed to effect his return.
Of course, Brandon Tate was a big threat at the start of the season, but he's quickly quieted down in the return game.
The Packers haven't been dangerous on kick returns, either. Their biggest special teams weapon is rookie punter Tim Masthay. The rookie averages 44.3 yards per punt, and plants one-third of those punts inside the opponent's 20-yard line. Giving the top-ranked defense that kind of field position to work with will be crucial, especially on the road against the top-ranked offense in the league.
Patriots punter Zoltan Mesko has close numbers to Masthay's, with 43.5 yards per punt while landing his opponents inside the 20 at a 30.4-percent clip.
Most important, though, are the kickers. Shayne Graham won't get any touchbacks on his kickoffs, but he has yet to miss a field goal. Packers kicker Mason Crosby has missed six of his 24 attempts this season. And guess what? The forecast calls for snow.
Advantage: Patriots
Coaching
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Every team loses some games they should win, but the Packers have lost a bunch of them this year. Back-to-back overtime losses against the lowly Washington Redskins and Miami Dolphins are nothing to be proud of, or take lightly. Throw in last week's 7-3 loss to the 3-10 Lions, and there has to be cause for concern. It comes down to gameplanning.
I don't want to hear about Rodgers' injury costing them the game. The Packers should have put up 21 points by the time Rodgers came out with a concussion.
The Patriots, however, are handling the stiffest of competition. They are preparing for every game like it's the Super Bowl. That level of concentration is hard to explain, but Belichick has everyone buying in as the head coach, offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator. And to think this was supposed to be a rebuilding year, yet somehow, he's getting it all done, virtually all by himself.
Advantage: Patriots
Patriots Must Shut Down...
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Clay Matthews
For much of the 2010 season, Clay Matthews has been the NFL's leader in sacks. He's quieted down a bit, though, and has only logged a sack in four of the past seven games, including a two-week hibernation for the sack monster before last week's game against the Lions.
If the Patriots want to win on Sunday night, they need to make sure not to wake the monster up.
If there's one thing the Patriots are good at, it's scheming a player out of a game. I could list the names of some players who the Patriots have done that to, but that's better suited as its own article.
Going into the postseason, nothing should be more important to the Patriots than protecting Tom Brady.
Packers Must Shut Down...
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Tom Brady
The New England Patriots offense has seemed as indefensible as in the days of 2007, and though it's not the same offense as it was back then, it can all be traced back to No. 12.
Unlike 2007, this is a multi-faceted offense. Brady makes use of all his weapons, and is no longer slowed down when the defense is bracketing one guy with double coverage a la Randy Moss.
Brady hasn't had a lot of pressure on him over the past few weeks, so the key will be for the Packers to rush him down after down. Clay Matthews remains a dominant force as a pass rusher, but with Cullen Jenkins out, the Packers may have to find unconventional ways to get after him. Only problem is, the Patriots offensive line is playing on another level right now.
Yeah. Good luck with that, guys.
Prediction
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With the level of talent of the teams the Patriots have beaten on their five-game winning streak, it's damn near impossible to pick against them right now. Especially at home.
The question marks surrounding key starters—not just on offense, but on defense as well—and their availability for the game has to be a detriment to any chances the Packers may have had to come into Gillette Stadium and pick up a win on the red-hot Patriots.
Oh, by the way, I'm going to the game!
Patriots 30, Packers 20
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