San Francisco 49ers: How the Niners Can Sneak into the NFL Playoffs
The San Francisco 49ers have given themselves a chance at making the playoffs. Although they do not fully control their own destiny, with three games remaining in the schedule, there is a real chance for them to make it.
The 49ers crushed the Seattle Seahawks 40-21 this past Sunday, and they now stand at 5-8, one game behind Seattle and the St. Louis Rams. It's amazing how a team that can finish 8-8 or perhaps even 7-9 can actually think of the playoffs. The fact that the playoffs are still within reach for the 49ers shows just how weak the NFC West is. It is by far the weakest division in the league, but somebody has to win it.
How can this 49er squad make the playoffs?
The simple answer is they need to win out and hope Seattle loses another game. Let's take a closer look at five keys that the Niners must accomplish in these final three games in order to make the playoffs.
5. Pass Rush Needs To Apply Consistent Pressure
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The San Francisco 49er defense has been strong against the run. They have not allowed any running back to gain 100 yards rushing in their past 19 games.
The front seven have done a very good job against the run, but it is in pass defense where the 49ers have the most difficulty. The 49ers have been very inconsistent in generating pressure when they use only four pass rushers.
In order to get the pressure they need, the 49ers must often resort to more blitzing. If you get to the quarterback, that's fine, but if not, you have further exposed your already weak defensive secondary.
The best pass defense always begins with a strong pass rush. Defensive backs cannot stay with a receiver for five or six seconds. Any decent NFL quarterback will pick them apart.
The 49ers have accumulated 28 total sacks in the 2010 season, which is near the middle of the pack in the NFL. The reality of this number is that most of the sacks have come from the linebackers. Only seven of the sacks have been made by defensive linemen, with Justin Smith leading that group with 5.5,
No matter how the 49ers get pressure on the opposing quarterback, they must find a way to continually do that if they hope to make a run at the playoffs.
4. Defense Must Shine
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The San Francisco 49ers got a strong defensive effort against the Seattle Seahawks this past Sunday. They will need to bring that same effort and intensity in their remaining three games.
All season long, the 49er offense has been spotty at best. They relied on their defense far too much to win games. The problem was that due to their often inept offensive play, the 49er defense was out on the field far too long. They wore down at crucial times and were unable to come up with stops at key points in several games.
Now, with the playoffs within their grasp, the 49er defense must step up and dominate. The run defense has been solid all year, and I see no reason why that should change. What must improve is the pass defense and the ability of the 49er defense to get off the field.
I already discussed the need for a more consistent pass rush. The other vital area which must improve is the play of the defensive backfield. The 49er defensive secondary had been a weak link all season until the recent Seattle game.
Against Seattle, the 49ers had four interceptions. However, Matt Hasselbeck was clearly off his game and made several very poor throws. Safeties Dashon Goldson and Reggie Smith each picked off a pass, marking the first interceptions of the season for the 49ers at the starting safety positions.
The 49ers cannot expect the same poor performance from their next two opposing quarterbacks, Philip Rivers of San Diego and Sam Bradford of the Rams. Even though Hasselbeck was not on top of his game, the Niners still gave up 285 yards through the air.
Starting corners Nate Clements and Shawntae Spencer have had down years and have been repeatedly victimized for too many touchdowns. The safeties, Goldson and Smith, also had not played up to expectations until this past Sunday. Nickel defensive back Tarell Brown has not made much of a positive impact yet.
The defense will be helped immensely if the offense can move the ball and give them some rest. The bottom line is that the 49er defense must play a lot better and generate turnovers for the team to be successful.
3. Offense Needs Balance and Creativity
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It took until the 13th game of the season for the 49ers to put together a creative and successful offensive game plan. The season ending injury to Frank Gore has paved the way for Brian Westbrook and Anthony Dixon to get some playing time.
Brian Westbrook delivered in a big way, with a 62-yard catch and run for a touchdown against Seattle. Westbrook caught what was about a 6-yard throw from Alex Smith, shook off a tackler and out raced everyone to the end zone for the score. This is the type of big play ability he has and it's just too bad the 49ers waited until Frank Gore went down before using it.
For the game, Brian Westbrook had six receptions for 87 yards. Why we were not getting him any touches prior to Gore's injury shows a tremendous lack of creativity by the 49er coaching staff.
Anthony Dixon also showed promise with a couple of good runs. Although he and Westbrook combined for only 83 yards on the ground, they both contributed with some nice plays.
The Seattle game also saw the return of Alex Smith and the reemergence of Vernon Davis as a receiving threat. The tight end, Davis, had five catches for 70 yards and a touchdown. The Niners generated 255 yards through the air on 17-of-27 passing from Alex Smith.
This is the type of balance that has been missing from the 49er attack all season, and it must continue if the 49ers have any shot at winning these next three games.
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2. Win the Turnover Battle
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In the 49er losses, turnovers have played a huge role. In the 49er wins, they have protected the ball and minimized their turnovers. The margin for error with the 49ers is extremely low and turnovers will often sway the game.
The 49er defense created five turnovers against the Seahawks. Starting safeties Dashon Goldson and Reggie Smith each had an interception, the first of the year for both players. Continued strong play from the entire defensive backfield is essential for the 49ers to win.
The 49ers are 5-8, heading into the San Diego game on Thursday. Currently, the 49ers have a minus-one turnover margin, and that must improve if the 49ers hope to go to the playoffs.
1. Alex Smith Absolutely Must Play Well
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First and foremost, the 49ers need Alex Smith to continue to play well. He had his best game of the season and one of the best in his career against Seattle this past Sunday.
Smith completed 17-of-27 passes for 255 yards and three touchdowns. A huge positive for the 49ers was that Alex Smith also had no turnovers. If he can continue to protect the football, the 49ers have a legitimate chance at the playoffs.
Alex Smith was back in the starting lineup after missing five games. He was efficient and did not make the bad mistake that has plagued him in the past.
Smith also did a good job reading blitzes and making the right decisions with the football. The 62-yard pass and run for a touchdown by Brian Westbrook was a prime example of two players being on the same page and making the right adjustment.
If Smith can continue to play well, the 49ers have the ability to win these last three games.
Who Wins the NFC West?
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The 49ers have a tough road game this Thursday against San Diego. Although not a must-win game, it would definitely make the road easier if they win it. Following San Diego, the 49ers again go on the road, travelling to St. Louis to face the Rams. This will be a pivotal game, and it will be tough for the Niners to win back-to-back games on the road.
The Niners conclude the season at home against the Arizona Cardinals. This should be a win, as the Niners are much better at home, and Arizona is struggling.
The Seattle Seahawks, 6-7, have a tough remaining schedule. They play Atlanta at home, followed by a travel game to Tampa Bay and finishing with a home game against St. Louis. It is entirely possible that the Seahawks lose all three games. Looking at their remaining games, I do not think Seattle will make it.
The St. Louis Rams are another story. They are the team to beat in the NFC West. The Rams catch a break with their next game against Kansas City. Chief quarterback Matt Cassell underwent an emergency appendectomy last week and missed their game against San Diego.
It is uncertain if Cassell will play this Sunday against the Rams, and even if he does, he will not be at full strength. The Chiefs backup quarterback is Brodie Croyle, and he was awful against the Chargers, as Kansas City was shutout, 31-0.
Following their home game against Kansas City, the Rams then host the 49ers. If the Rams were to beat the Chiefs and the 49ers lose to San Diego, St. Louis would hold a two-game lead over the Niners in the NFC West. St. Louis closes out their season at Seattle, which will also be a tough road contest.
So, who is my choice to win the NFC West?
First off, I think Seattle will lose to the Falcons, who at 11-2 are one of the toughest teams in the league. I also think Seattle loses on the road at Tampa Bay, as the Bucs are fighting for a playoff berth, and that game is huge for them.
The San Francisco 49ers do still have a chance, and if they can excel at the five keys I listed earlier, they will make it.
As much as I would like it to be the 49ers, I think the St. Louis Rams have the inside track. The 49ers will be hard-pressed to win back-to-back road games, and I think the Rams will beat them in St. Louis.
I hope I'm wrong, but my brain is overruling my heart at this point.
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