NFL Picks Week 14: Can Chicago Bears Defend NFC's Honor With Win?
NFL Picks Week 14 are here!
Once again, the Thursday night game gets us some early NFL action. And although the Titans are a pretty big mess these days, seeing if the Colts—specifically Peyton Manning—can get back on track will be intriguing.
The two best matchups have to be the Chiefs visiting the Chargers, who sneak back into the AFC West race with a win, and the inter-conference bonanza between New England and Chicago. Maybe the Bears have the tools to slow down Tom Brady.
Although it's not as exciting as it would have been in Week 1, the Giants traveling to Minnesota could be a great display of offensive firepower.
The Eagles, Steelers, Jets and Falcons all have should-win division games, but ones that are classic "trap games."
Inside we'll make our picks for Week 14. Check them out!
Indianapolis (6-6) at Tennessee (5-7)
1 of 16
When: Thursday, 8 p.m.
Where: LP Field, Nashville, Tennessee
Line: Colts by 3
When the NFL backloaded the schedule of divisional games, they had this game in mind. Although both teams have hit a terrible rough patch, the Colts and Titans should step up on the prime-time stage.
It's a bit early to declare Peyton Manning on the "downside" of his career. This is just a slump and he'll break out of it this Thursday.
The Titans should also be able to get back to basics: Against the 29th-ranked run defense in the league, Chris Johnson should be able to run free. If he doesn't get 20 carries this week (running that streak to three games) then something is really wrong.
Prediction: Colts 28, Titans 17
Green Bay (8-4) at Detroit (2-10)
2 of 16
When: Sunday, 1 p.m.
Where: Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan
Line: Packers by 6.5
This is an enormous game for the Packers, and not simply because it's divisional and they didn't play particularly great the last time against the Lions.
With the Bears taking on the Patriots this week, Green Bay has a great chance at pulling even in the NFC North. (For now, the Packers have the Giants and the Patriots the following two weeks.)
Detroit's mini-resurgence has hit a snag in the last two weeks, but they'll give Green Bay a tough test. Because the Lions can't run the ball (28th in the NFL), they won't be able to keep Aaron Rodgers on the sideline for long. Their only hope is that they get pressure on Rodgers: Detroit does surprisingly rank in the top 10 in sacks.
Prediction: Packers 41, Lions 24
Atlanta (10-2) at Carolina (1-11)
3 of 16
When: Sunday 1 p.m.
Where: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
Line: Falcons by 7.5
This game is one of the four so-called divisional "trap games" in Week 14. Although the Panthers have shown some life in the last few weeks (as well as a remarkable perseverance in the face of many injuries), the Falcons are too focused to let this one slip away.
None of the teams that Carolina has been able to hang with (San Francisco, Cleveland, Baltimore, Seattle) recently have the type of explosive passing game Atlanta has.
Since Carolina's offense is pretty abysmal, dead last in total yards per game, the Falcons should have little trouble forcing three-and-outs and getting third-down stops.
Prediction: Falcons 33, Panthers 13
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Tampa Bay (7-5) at Washington (5-7)
4 of 16
When: Sunday 1 p.m.
Where: FedEx Field, Landover, Maryland
Line: Tampa Bay by 2
The Redskins are tough to get a read on this year. They have posted impressive wins over playoff contenders like Philadelphia, Green Bay and Chicago, but they were destroyed in recent weeks by Philadelphia and the Giants.
Nevertheless, the Redskins do not match up well with the Bucs. Tampa's defense has done a great job of forcing turnovers and have allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards in the NFC.
And since LeGarrette Blount is really blossoming into a fine workhorse back, averaging 18 carries per game the last six weeks, and the Redskins will be sans Albert Haynesworth (not that he was contributing all that much), Tampa Bay will dominate time of possession and the game.
Prediction: Buccaneers 24, Washington 13
New York Giants (8-4) at Minnesota Vikings (5-7)
5 of 16
When: Sunday 1 p.m.
Where: Metrodome, Minneapolis, Minnesota
Line: Giants by 2
It's tough to say that the Vikings are better off starting Tarvaris Jackson no matter how healthy Brett Favre is. He did lead the team to a handful of scores against the Bills, but with Adrian Peterson playing against the NFL's worst run defense, any quarterback is going to look good.
Favre's experience probably gives the club a slightly better chance against the Giants, but Jackson's mobility provides a nice out against the fast Giants front four. Either way, Peterson will be the most important Viking on Sunday.
For the Giants, the absence of Hakeem Nicks last week didn't prevent the team from dominating Washington. But they'll need better production out of Eli Manning, with or without Nicks, against an improving Minnesota defense.
Prediction: Giants 34, Vikings 31 (OT)
Cleveland (5-7) at Buffalo (2-10)
6 of 16
When: Sunday 1 p.m.
Where: Ralph Wilson Stadium, Orchard Park, New York
Line: Buffalo by 1
The Bills being listed as favorites is a bit surprising, even if it's just by a single point and the game is in Buffalo.
The Bills certainly should be at least 3-9, with wins in three of their last four games. But the Browns have played outstanding football since Week 6: They could easily be 7-5 riding a six-game winning streak.
Buffalo's troubles in defending the run are well known (last in the NFL) and the Browns will take advantage. Peyton Hillis should easily surpass the 1,000-yard milestone and collect his sixth 20-plus carries effort.
Prediction: Browns 27, Bills 14
Cincinnati (2-10) at Pittsburgh (9-3)
7 of 16
When: Sunday 1 p.m.
Where: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Line: Steelers by 9
Pittsburgh will definitely miss Heath Miller if he doesn't play, but it's the offensive line that is a far greater concern. It's not a good sign when your rookie center (Maurkice Pouncey) is by far the best lineman on the team.
With a banged-up Ben Roethlisberger, an even more banged-up offensive line and most likely neither of their two tight ends, Rashard Mendenhall will have to make plays on his own. Fortunately, the Bengals defense is below average.
Cincinnati does have a chance, however, because the Steelers secondary has given up many big plays this year. With Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco, there will be opportunities to throw the ball. It's up to Carson Palmer to find them.
Prediction: Steelers 31, Bengals 18
Oakland (6-6) at Jacksonville (7-5)
8 of 16
When: Sunday 1 p.m.
Where: EverBank Field, Jacksonville, Florida
Line: Jaguars by 4.5
These two teams are very evenly matched and very similar. Both want to limit their throws, run the ball 40 times and control the clock.
Maurice Jones-Drew will have another good day against the Raiders' mediocre front seven. But because the Raiders have a pair of excellent runners, they have a slight edge on the ground.
Of course, the Jags have a significant edge at quarterback: Technically, (by percentage points) David Garrard leads the AFC in completion percentage. In the fourth quarter, that edge will show.
Prediction: Jaguars 23, Raiders 20
Seattle (6-6) at San Francisco (4-8)
9 of 16
When: Sunday 4:05 pm
Where: Candlestick Park, San Francisco, California
Line: 49ers by 4.5
Not that they really deserve it, but the Seahawks are getting no love from Vegas.
Pete Carroll's team has been unbelievably inconsistent in 2010, but they have started to find some semblance of a running game with Marshawn Lynch. If Mike Williams is able to return from his ankle injury, then Matt Hasselbeck will be much more effective.
For the 49ers, this is probably Alex Smith's last chance. Troy Smith didn't turn the ball over, but that doesn't mean he was good: He's barely completing half of his passes. Without Frank Gore, the 49ers are going to struggle to maintain drives.
Prediction: Seahawks 24, 49ers 16
St. Louis (6-6) at New Orleans (9-3)
10 of 16
When: Sunday 4:05 p.m.
Where: Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
Line: Saints by 9
New Orleans' title defense hasn't gone smoothly. Drew Brees has thrown too many interceptions, there have been countless injuries, losses to marginal teams like Cleveland and Arizona, and narrowly-avoided disastrous losses in Dallas on Thanksgiving and last week at Cincinnati.
But they are still just a game out of the NFC South and have won five straight. With Reggie Bush, Chris Ivory and likely Pierre Thomas returning this week, they have a great collection of talent in the backfield.
The Rams are certainly still in contention in the NFC West, and because Steven Jackson has returned to his old Pro Bowl form, Sam Bradford doesn't have to throw the ball as often. The Rams' young defense is starting to show signs of promise. Let's see how they hold up against a great offense.
Prediction: Rams 23, Saints 20
Miami (6-6) at New York Jets (9-3)
11 of 16
When: Sunday 4:15 p.m.
Where: New Meadowlands, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Line: Jets by 5.5
After being embarrassed on Monday night, the Jets will have a huge chip on their shoulder, but they have to be careful with their rival coming to town.
The Jets have not played all that well at home: shut out vs. Green Bay, nearly choking away a win against Houston, trailing the woeful Bengals at halftime.
Despite losing to Cleveland at home, Miami has to have some optimism heading into this matchup. The Fins hung with the Jets earlier this year, and Chad Henne had one of the best games of his career.
If they can eliminate the big play on defense, and get some pressure on a struggling Mark Sanchez, they'll have a shot.
Prediction: Dolphins 21, Jets 17
Denver (3-9) at Arizona (3-9)
12 of 16
When: Sunday 4:15 p.m.
Where: University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
Line: Broncos by 4.5
By far the worst game on the Week 14 schedule.
The Broncos will probably have the interim coach boost (Jason Garrett for Wade Phillips, Leslie Frazier for Brad Childress) but that doesn't mean they'll turn into a respectable team overnight.
Still, Knowshon Moreno ran very effectively last week against a good Kansas City defense, and the passing game should rack up plenty of yards. Nevertheless, with the season a mess, Tim Tebow might get a chance to play,
The Cardinals might have the worst offense in football, a stunning reality given the presence of Larry Fitzgerald. If Champ Bailey plays like he did against Dwayne Bowe last week, the Cardinals might be shut out at home.
Prediction: Broncos 20, Cardinals 10
Kansas City (8-4) at San Diego (6-6)
13 of 16
When: Sunday 4:15 p.m.
Where: Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, California
Line: Chargers by 6.5
San Diego can make a real mess of the AFC West with a win this week.
The Chargers laid an egg last week at home versus the Raiders, but Philip Rivers will bounce back. It's going to be up to the Bolts' run defense to win the game: Last week against Oakland, they let Darren McFadden and Michael Bush control the clock for nearly 39 minutes.
The Chiefs running game is still tops in the NFL and if they can avoid another eight penalties (like they had last week) they'll have a much better shot at effectively wrapping up the AFC West.
Prediction: Chargers 44, Chiefs 35
New England (10-2) at Chicago (9-3)
14 of 16
When: Sunday 4:15 p.m.
Where: Soldier Field, Chicago, Illinois
Line: Patriots by 3
The Bears might have the remedy for silencing New England's incredible offense. Julius Peppers and Brian Urlacher preside over the third-ranked (both points and total yardage) defense in the NFL.
But more importantly, the Bears lead the NFL in sacks with 45. They will have to get pressure on Tom Brady to win the game. Furthermore, the Bears can win if Matt Forte gets involved on the offensive side of the ball.
The Pats defense has been much improved in the last month, especially with their penchant for creating turnovers.
A decade after Bill Belichick outsmarted Mike Martz in Super Bowl XXXVI (or did Martz just outsmart himself?) this should be another last-second nail-biter.
Prediction: Patriots 20, Bears 17
Philadelphia (8-4) at Dallas (4-8)
15 of 16
When: Sunday 8:20 p.m.
Where: New Cowboys Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Line: Eagles by 3.5
Certainly the Cowboys have been a new team under Jason Garrett, winning three of four.
And recently, their defense has shown a great ability to force turnovers from potent offenses like New Orleans, Indianapolis and the Giants, nine against those three playoff-caliber teams. But Michael Vick and the Eagles pose a much different threat.
Vick will scramble for several first downs against an over-pursuing defense and at least one of his home run attempts will find DeSean Jackson for an electrifying touchdown. That will be just enough for the Eagles to win another prime-time game.
Prediction: Eagles 33, Cowboys 27
Baltimore (8-4) at Houston (5-7)
16 of 16
When: Monday 8:30 pm
Where: Reliant Stadium, Houston, Texas
Line: Ravens by 3
The Texans are very fortunate to have 10 full days to prepare for this one. The rest will do Arian Foster and the rest of the club well, but a few extra days to prepare for the Ravens defense is more important.
Baltimore and Terrell Suggs (5.5 sacks last five games) have been outstanding in the last five games. They'll need that type of pressure against Matt Schaub, who was fantastic a week ago in Philadelphia.
The Ravens do need to get a little more production from Ray Rice, or maybe they just need to use him more. Rice is only averaging 14 carries the last month.
Prediction: Ravens 23, Texans 20
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