NFL Needs To Break Out the Computers: Ranking the Teams, BCS-Style
There are a lot of NFL power rankings on the internet. There are a lot of rankings just on this site. But many of those lists are based on gut instinct and personal observation, or what someone sees on the field - and very rarely are two people going to see the exact same thing.
So it's time to let the computers take over - or more specifically, a mathematical formula. The calculations used here are inspired in part by Mark Anderson of the Las Vegas Review-Journal, who used a ranking formula for his ballot in this year's AP College Football poll. Here's how this variant works (and it's not as difficult as it might sound):
- 10 points for a win (the easiest part).
- One point for each opponent's win, adjusted for record. Example: The opponents of 7-5 Jacksonville have 60 wins this season - but five of those have come from beating Jacksonville, which means the Jags would be actually be getting a point for a loss. Subtracting those wins (which in this case means Jacksonville gets 55 points instead of of 60) eliminates this flaw and gives a more accurate representation of schedule strength.
- The team's point differential divided by five. Example: San Diego has outscored its opponents by 70 points this season, so they get 70/5, or 14 points. Houston has been outscored by 33, so they get -33/5, or -6.6 points
- Add all numbers together and divide by games played.
It's not a perfect formula - it currently ranks Seattle just ahead of St. Louis, even though they're both 6-6 and St. Louis won heads-up. But it takes away a lot of the subjectivity and bias that can creep into a human poll. Teams that play tough schedules are rewarded, and close losses don't hurt as much as blowouts. Without further ado, the 32 NFL teams from bottom to top.
32) Carolina Panthers (3.62 Average)
1 of 32
Record: 1-11
Points Differential (Diff): -12.8/game (32nd)
Adjusted Strength of Schedule (ASoS): 64-68 (22nd)
There's no getting around it: Carolina is just bad. They have two lousy quarterbacks (Matt Moore and Jimmy Clausen), they can't score, and they can't stop other teams from scoring. They looked competent for the first half on Sunday against Seattle, taking a 14-3 lead into the locker room – and immediately ceased participation in the game, giving up 28 unanswered points. Their best chance at this point is to keep losing so they can draft Andrew Luck.
31) Arizona Cardinals (6.03)
2 of 32
Record: 3-9
Diff: -11.5/game (31)
ASoS: 70-62 (T10)
Five games into the season, the Cardinals were 3-2 coming off an upset of New Orleans, and looking like they might survive in the post-Kurt Warner era. Now they've lost seven straight, with Derek Anderson's famous rant just a byproduct of the meltdown. Larry Fitzgerald is being wasted by increasingly bad quarterbacking (though the league's wort scoring defense isn't helping matters). Seriously, both Anderson and Max Hall were better than Matt Leinart?
30) Buffalo Bills (6.25)
3 of 32
Record: 2-10
Diff: -7.5/game (30)
ASoS: 73-59 (5)
Buffalo had been soldiering on in spite of a tough schedule, suffering 3-point losses to four teams currently in a playoff spot. But they finally seemed to pack it in against Minnesota, losing 38-14 in a game where Vikings quarterbacks threw four interceptions. Ryan Fitzpatrick has proved himself a competent quarterback, but when your defense allows 27.8 points a game (T-29), you aren't going to win much no matter how good your offense is.
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29) Cincinnati Bengals (6.38)
4 of 32
Record: 2-10
Diff: -5.6/game (27)
ASoS: 70-50 (2)
Even the schedule isn't excuse for a team that won its division last season completely falling apart. Carson Palmer is clearly not the quarterback that he once was, with only the presence of a resurgent Terrell Owens making him look passable. Two games in the last three weeks sum up the Bengals' season: Getting outscored by Buffalo 35-0 in the second half after leading 31-14 at halftime, and Pat Sims jumping offsides against New Orleans on a play that works maybe once out of every thousand tries.
28) Denver Broncos (7.05)
5 of 32
Record: 3-9
Diff: -6.4/game (29)
ASoS: 70-62 (T10)
This is the same team that started 6-0 in the 2009 season. Since then, they've gone 5-17, traded away Brandon Marshall and Peyton Hillis, traded three draft picks for the right to draft Tim Tebow, been accused of running up the score, been caught filming an opponent's practice (and still lost the game), and fired head coach Josh McDaniels (left). Oh, and unless the rumored for-cause contract voiding pans out, they'll be on the hook for three head coaches' salaries in 2011, since they're still paying out Mike Shanahan's contract. Other than that, things are great.
27) Detroit Lions (7.28)
6 of 32
Record: 2-10
Diff: -2.3/game (21)
ASoS: 73-61 (T6)
People like to point out that the Lions at least keep games close: six of their losses have been by 5 points or less. But they don't award victories for keeping it close. Detroit does have a number of good young players, including WR Calvin Johnson, DT Ndamukong Suh, and QB Matt Stafford (at least when he can stay healthy). But even if these young players become true stars, the Lions are still at least a year away from being legitimate contenders.
26) San Francisco 49ers (7.98)
7 of 32
Record: 4-8
Diff: -4.7/game (26)
ASoS: 67-65 (T15)
What does it say about the NFC West that a 4-win team is still alive with four weeks left? The 49ers have played better since replacing Alex Smith with Troy Smith – so of course they're going back to Alex this weekend. The big problem is that you still don't know what team you'll get. One week they're beating division-leader St. Louis in OT, the next they're getting shut out by Tampa Bay. Head coach Mike Singletary has regressed since going 5-4 as an interim in 2008, and barring a miracle four-game winning streak to end the season, he'll be hard-pressed to hold onto his job.
25) Dallas Cowboys (8.38)
8 of 32
Record: 4-8
Diff: -3.5/game (23)
ASoS: 69-63 (13)
The Cowboys are a lost Roy Williams fumble away from potentially being 4-0 under interim head coach Jason Garrett, and actually look like they care about football again. The defense still can't stop anyone (28.0 PA/game, 31st), but at least they only need to fix one side of the ball. John Kitna lighting it up in the last four games though (7 TDs, 2 INTs, 107.9 rating) begs the question: just how good is Tony Romo, anyway?
24) Washington Redskins (8.57)
9 of 32
Record: 5-7
Diff: -5.9/game (28)
ASoS: 67-65 (T15)
It's hard to believe that earlier this season Washington beat Philadelphia, Green Bay and Chicago in a four week span. They've lost four of five since then, with only win being in overtime against a Tennessee team in a worse free-fall. Donovan McNabb is the league's 27th-ranked quarterback and looks old, and Washington would probably be better off paying the $3.5 million buyout option on his “extension” and going after Kevin Kolb. Now THAT would be ironic.
23) St. Louis Rams (9.08)
10 of 32
Record: 6-6
Diff: -0.4/game (16)
ASoS: 50-82 (32)
The easiest schedule in the league has been a blessing for the Rams, allowing them to contend for the playoffs while rebuilding. Sam Bradford is proving to be the real deal, and a ninth-ranked scoring defense has helped them match their win total from the last three seasons combined. Even if St. Louis can't hold on for the division title, they're developing the nucleus needed to be an annual contender.
22) Seattle Seahawks (9.18)
11 of 32
Record: 6-6
Diff: -4.1/game
ASoS: 60-72 (T26)
Seattle has played well against some good teams this season, winning in Chicago and beating San Diego. On the other hand, they lost to the New York Giants by 34 at home. Justin Forsett and Mike Williams have emerged as legitimate weapons, but Matt Hasslebeck is clearly in the “mediocre veteran” stage of his career, and Seattle needs to decide whether it wants to A) be a marginal playoff team, or B) Blow everything up and take a couple bad years in hopes of being a Super Bowl contender. Though they could do both, since it is the NFC West.
21) Minnesota Vikings (9.40)
12 of 32
Record: 5-7
Diff: -2.2/game (20)
ASoS: 68-64 (14)
Brett Favre's career may (finally) be over, but Tarvaris Jackson clearly isn't the long-term answer; their blowout win over a 2-10 Buffalo team owed more to Adrian Peterson and Buffalo's four lost fumbles than to Jackson's 3 interceptions. The amount of turnover – seven players have started a game at quarterback in the last six years – isn't helping matters. Another veteran holdover may work for a year or two, but the Vikings have to find a franchise quarterback to get to the promised land.
20) Houston Texans (9.53)
13 of 32
Record: 5-7
Diff: -2.8/game (22)
ASoS: 71-61 (8)
Houston has fallen badly since their bye week, going 1-4 and falling from division leader to fighting for their playoff lives. The offense has done fine, but the pass defense – highlighted by their collapse against the Jets has lived down to it's reputation: 287.4 yards/game, 102.8 defensive passer rating (last in both categories). They almost certainly need to win out to have a chance at the playoffs, and that's an unlikely proposition for a team that can't seem to handle prosperity.
19) Jacksonville Jaguars (10.12)
14 of 32
Record: 7-5
Diff: -3.6/game (24)
ASoS: 60-72 (T26)
There's really no point in trying to argue that Jacksonville is a good team: four of their losses have come by at least 22 points, two of their wins were on improbable final plays (the 59-yard field goal against Indianapolis and the 50-yard Hail Mary against Houston), and they haven't beaten a team with a winning record. Yet with the other AFC South teams doing their best to hand the Jaguars the division, who are they to refuse it? If they beat the Colts in two weeks, they would only need one other win to clinch their first division title since 1999.
18) Tennessee Titans
15 of 32
Record: 5-7
Diff: +2.2/game (13)
ASoS: 67-65 (T15)
It didn't seem possible that a team could be more dysfunctional than Dallas or Minnesota this season, but Tennessee has completely fallen apart. They were once 5-2 with 18+ point wins over Philadelphia, Jacksonville and the New York Giants. Now they've scored six points in their last two games and likely have to choose between their franchise quarterback and their franchise head coach after the season. Even with three division games left against mediocre opponents, they're done, plain and simple.
17) Oakland Raiders (10.32)
16 of 32
Record: 6-6
Diff: +1.2/game (15)
ASoS: 61-71 (25)
The Raiders have already clinched their best season since making the Super Bowl in 2002 (which sort of says how bad they've been since then). They've been inconsistent this season, but they have gone 4-0 in the division; if they can gain a game on the Chiefs in the next three weeks, then their Week 17 showdown will be for the division title. Forget a meaningful November game between these teams – when was the last time we saw them play a meaningful January game?
16) Cleveland Browns (10.58)
17 of 32
Record: 5-7
Diff: -0.8/game (18)
ASoS: 79-53 (1)
Not many teams would have a better record with the schedule the Browns have had. An incredible eight of their 12 games have been against teams currently holding a playoff spot, and they've managed to upset two of them (New Orleans and New England) and take a third into overtime (New York Jets). Colt McCoy and Peyton Hillis are clearly their quarterback and running back of the future, and CB Joe Haden has an interception in four straight games. They won't make the playoffs this season, but unhappy Cavaliers fans have a promising team they can latch onto.
15) Miami Dolphins (10.62)
18 of 32
Record: 6-6
Diff: -1.9/game (19)
ASoS: 72-60 (T6)
Miami holds one of the strangest records in recent memory: 5-1 on the road, 1-5 at home. That aside, the Dolphins are as mediocre as said record. The Wildcat formation is nowhere near as effective as it once was – mainly because they always run out of it, so teams can stack the line. Chad Henne is no better now than he was last year, and would be demoted if Chad Pennington hadn't gotten hurt (again). They're almost certainly out of the playoff hunt, so the one thing they can do is play spoiler to the Jets or Patriots.
14) Indianapolis Colts (10.87)
19 of 32
Record: 6-6
Diff: +2.3/game (14)
ASoS: 65-67 (T18)
The big problem for the Colts now is not injuries; it's that they don't even try to run the football. They don't even have a fullback on the active roster. This one-dimensional offense – Peyton Manning is on pace to set a record for most pass attempts in a season – means defenses aren't biting on play-action and can simply drop into coverage. This is the biggest reason Manning has thrown 11 interceptions in three games (more then in four of his full seasons). Add in mental mistakes like the leverage penalty against Eric Foster on Sunday, and the Colts now have to beat Jacksonville just to have a shot at the playoffs.
13) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10.95)
20 of 32
Record: 7-5
Diff: -0.7/game (17)
ASoS: 63-69 (T23)
Tampa Bay is the definition of a bad-good team – they've played five games against teams with winning records, and lost all five. Sunday was the most painful, going up 10 and then giving up a kick-return touchdown. Give them all the credit in the world for making a big improvement on their 3-13 record in 2009; Josh Freeman is developing nicely at quarterback, and Raheem Morris' coaching enthusiasm is undeniable. But with four teams fighting for two wild-card spots, the Bucs will likely need to win out to make the playoffs. This would include beating New Orleans in Week 17 – who thumped them 31-6 the first time around and will likely still be playing for something.
12) San Diego Chargers (11.58)
21 of 32
Record: 6-6
Diff: +5.8/game (6)
ASoS: 67-67 (T19)
Just when everyone was read to hand the AFC West to San Diego, they laid down at home against Oakland, finishing off a season sweep by the Raiders. The loss did more than end the Chargers' 19-game December winning streak – it made their game with Kansas City next week an absolute must-win. If the Chargers lose, they'll officially be eliminated in the division (3 back with 3 games to go and losing the tiebreaker), and they would then need the Jets or Ravens to implode to sneak in as a wild-card.
11) Kansas City Chiefs (11.97)
22 of 32
Record: 8-4
Diff: +4.8/game (10)
ASoS: 52-80 (30)
Kansas City is yet another decent team that has benefited from a ridiculously easy schedule – even including their remaining games, 7-5 Jacksonville is their only opponent with a winning record (with seven of them currently 6-6). With that said, Kansas City is the only team with a two-game lead in their division, and would almost wrap it with a win against San Diego next weekend. Matt Cassel (23 TDs, 4 INTs) and Dwayne Bowe (14 TDs, 15.3 yards/catch) have been putting up Brady/Moss 2007-type numbers, and the defense has given up more than 24 points only once (49 in the No-Handshake Game). Too bad we likely won't find out until the playoffs if they can beat a good team.
10) Chicago Bears (12.40)
23 of 32
Record: 9-3
Diff: +4.5/game (11)
ASoS: 48-78 (31)
Everyone keeps waiting for the other shoe to drop with the Bears – and here they are with the second-best record in the NFC. The defense has been playing at the level it did in 2006 when they made the Super Bowl, and Jay Cutler is on pace to set a career low for interceptions. Beating Philadelphia two weeks ago gave them a quality win for their resume, but they still have to play three teams currently ranked ahead of them (New England, New York Jets, Green Bay); if they hold on for the division title, they'll certainly have earned it.
9) New Orleans Saints (13.20)
24 of 32
Record: 9-3
Diff: +6.0/game (4)
ASoS: 54-78 (29)
The Saints' five game winning streak is a little deceiving – they've only beaten one quality team (Pittsburgh), and needed late game mistakes by their opponents (the Roy Williams Fumble and the Pat Sims Jump) to win the last two. It's a lot easier to put up 30+ points against four straight teams when all four are in the bottom-12 of scoring defense. They'll finally get a big test against their last four opponents (St. Louis, Baltimore, Atlanta and Tampa Bay), who have a combined record of 31-17.
8) New York Giants (13.27)
25 of 32
Record: 8-4
Diff: +5.1/game (8)
ASoS: 58-74 (28)
The Giants have been a very inconsistent team in the season's second-half in recent years, and 2010 is shaping up as no exception. We didn't really learn much about them in their win over Washington since the Redskins have clearly quit on the season. Eli Manning is still Eli Manning, just as capable of giving you three touchdowns or three picks (and sometimes both). Clearly their biggest game is the rematch with Philadelphia in two weeks; if they lose that one, they'll have to beat Green Bay to make sure they get the tiebreaker for the wild-card (they already beat Chicago).
7) New York Jets (13.33)
26 of 32
Record: 9-3
Diff: +2.9/game (12)
ASoS: 63-69 (T23)
When the Jets were constantly needing comebacks to beat bad teams, everyone talked about how it showed their resilience. But New York is just 1-3 against winning teams, with their one win coming against New England in Week 2; against their last two Quality Opponents (Green Bay and New England) they've been outscored 54-3. It's hard to imagine the Jets falling from 9-2 to missing the playoffs, but they need to beat Pittsburgh and/or Chicago – whom they face on the road back-to-back – to prove that they can get it done against a good team.
6) Baltimore Ravens (13.40)
27 of 32
Record: 8-4
Diff: +4.9/game (9)
ASoS: 69-61 (9)
A heartbreaking late loss to Pittsburgh may cost Baltimore a first-round bye, but it doesn't change the fact that they're a good team. Their four losses have been by a combined 16 points, and their fourth-ranked defense has held seven opponents to 15 points or less. Being a wild-card team doesn't seem to hurt the Ravens either; they've been the No. 6 seed the last two years and won three playoff games. The one problem is an inconsistent offense. Baltimore put up 37 points against Buffalo and Carolina, but just 10 against Pittsburgh, the New York Jets and Cincinnati (the 28th-ranked scoring defense).
5) Philadelphia Eagles (13.55)
28 of 32
Record: 8-4
Diff: +5.3/game (7)
ASoS: 70-62 (10)
The Eagles usually make second-half runs under Andy Reid, so they may have been playing well now without Michael Vick – but it's foolish to say anyone else is the story right now. There are actually a lot of similarities between New England and Philly; they both score a lot of points (first and second in the NFL), they both have electric quarterbacks (Brady and Vick are 1-2 in passer rating), and both defenses can give up a lot of points (18th and 20th). The difference for the Eagles is that they don't seem to be getting better on that side of the field – and that was before CB Asante Samuel hurt his knee. They also still have to play Dallas twice, who beat them three times last year and has been resurgent in the last month.
4) Green Bay Packers (14.10)
29 of 32
Record: 8-4
Diff: +10.1/game (1)
ASoS: 65-67 (T19)
Green Bay is first in scoring defense, first in scoring differential, sixth in turnover differential – and would be out of the playoffs if the season ended today. The Packers control their own destiny with games against the Giants and Bears, and they have a tiebreaker over Philadelphia should the Eagles fall out of the NFC East lead. But there are scenarios where the Week 17 showdown with Chicago could be the difference between a first-round bye and missing the playoffs. Can you say “Flex Game”?
3) Pittsburgh Steelers (15.02)
30 of 32
Record: 9-3
Diff: +6.3/game (3)
ASoS: 75-57 (4)
Pittsburgh has taken the division lead despite the toughest schedule of any team currently holding a playoff spot, including playing both of the league's 10-win teams. They finally get a break down the stretch, with just one Quality Opponent (New York Jets) and three straight home games. They'll still be hard-pressed to get the No. 1 seed – with the tiebreaker, they're effectively two games behind New England – but the Steelers are in great position for a first-round bye. Ben Roethlisberger showed Sunday night that he is one tough customer, and the Steel Curtain (second in scoring defense) is as stout as ever.
2) Atlanta Falcons (15.68)
31 of 32
Diff: +5.9/game (5)
ASoS: 74-58 (4)
Atlanta was all set to be the top team in the NFL unless something big happened on Monday night – which it did. But that's no knock on the Falcons. They've played the third-toughest schedule in the NFL, yet are undefeated outside the state of Pennsylvania (their only losses are in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia). Matt Ryan to Roddy White has become one of the most productive combinations in football, and Michael Turner has regained much of his 2008 form. Their remaining schedule includes two games against Carolina, which will likely pad their record and give them the inside track to the top seed.
1) New England Patriots (15.75)
32 of 32
Record: 10-2
Diff: +9.2/game (2)
ASoS: 67-65 (T15)
What was supposed to be rebuilding season has become a renaissance year for Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and the Unwanted All-Stars. The Patriots were pretty good in the first half of the season, but have been on a mission since their embarrassing loss to Cleveland, which culminated in Monday night's evisceration of the Jets. The offense has averaged 40 points in the last four games, the much-maligned defense has given up just 10 points in the last six quarters, and Brady has now gone 228 passes without an interception. Big tests come calling the next two weeks in the form of Chicago and Green Bay, the third and first-ranked scoring defenses. If the Patriots win both games, then there's no debate: the road to the Super Bowl goes through New England.
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