Bold Picks for NFL Week 14: Predicting the Best Bets and Upsets
The NFL season is winding down and teams are jockeying for playoff position. It’s the time of year when certain teams are mailing it in and others are turning it up a notch.
The NFL bold picks against the spread (ATS) for the week fell just short again in Week 13 as I finished under .500.
My record on the season is 87-100-2 against the spread (ATS). Despite this record I am going to press on and try to finish strong. Thanks for the emails and no, I won’t hire a monkey to make the picks this week.
Here are the bold predictions and picks against the spread for every game in the NFL for Week 14.
Indianapolis at Tennessee
1 of 16
Indianapolis at Tennessee
8:20 PM NFL Network
LP Field
Peyton Manning and the struggling Indianapolis Colts look to get back on track when they host the Tennessee Titans on Thursday Night Football.
The Colts are listed as slim three point road favorites by online sportsbook BetEd.com.
Peyton Manning is under scrutiny after another loss last week to the Dallas Cowboys. The star quarterback has now tossed eleven interceptions in his last three games.
Several explanations for the recent swoon include but are not limited to, injuries and new personnel, but the most plausible reason is the running game.
In the last game, the Cowboys defense was laughing when the Colts would attempt a play action pass. Indy can’t run the ball and this has made it nearly impossible for Manning to pass.
The Colts are 0-4 ATS when they play a team with a losing record, 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss.
The Titans are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as a home underdog and the home team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
While everyone is betting on Manning to rebound, I go with the trending numbers instead.
Titans +2.5
Cleveland at Buffalo
2 of 16
Cleveland at Buffalo
1:00 PM CBS
Ralph Wilson Stadium
The Cleveland Browns engage in battle with the Buffalo Bills this Sunday. In a game between two teams that will miss the playoffs, the Bills are one point favorites based on the fact that this game is in Buffalo.
The Browns and running back Peyton Hillis are licking their chops in anticipation of facing off against the porous Bills run defense. The Bills were torched last week against the Vikings, but this game actually sets up well for the home team.
The Browns are 10-21-1 ATS in their last 32 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0.
The Bills are 29-12-1 ATS against a team with a losing record, 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0, and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.
The Bills will rebound from the poor showing a week ago and always play better at home in front of a raucous fan base.
Bills -1
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
3 of 16
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
1:00 PM CBS
Heinz Field
Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers host the Cincinnati Bengals in a divisional battle that has lost some luster. The Bengals are having a terrible season and because of this they are 9.5 point underdogs on the road.
The Steelers are off a huge win over the rival Baltimore Ravens and will have a hard time getting motivated against the hapless Bengals. Big Ben will be playing with a repaired broken nose and a hobbled foot.
The Steelers are 3-7 ATS against a team with a losing record, 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games as a home favorite and 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win.
The road team is 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 meetings.
The Bengals have no shot at the playoffs but would embrace a chance to play spoiler against their long time rivals. The Steelers have a bad habit of building early leads and letting teams catch up. This is especially true of teams with losing records (see Buffalo).
The Bengals may not win, but they keep this one close.
Bengals +9.5
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Green Bay at Detroit
4 of 16
Green Bay at Detroit
1:00 PM FOX
Ford Field
The Detroit Lions will try again to get a win in their division when they host the Green Bay Packers. Online Sportsbook BetEd.com has the Lions listed as seven point home underdogs in this divisional matchup.
Last week I mentioned that Buffalo's tough loss against Pittsburgh would cause a hangover effect that would hurt them when they played against the Vikings. This will happen to the Lions this week.
They had a chance to close out the win against the Bears but a suspect call cost them the game. For a team that has given it their all but has come up short for most of the season, losing in this fashion can take its toll.
The Packers are 23-11-1 ATS in their last 35 road games, 12-5 ATS in their last 17 against the NFC North and 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings.
The Lions are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 and will not be able to rebound after the tough loss to the Bears.
The Packers are aware of how close the Lions played in their first meeting and will take them seriously. The Packers will win and cover the number.
Packers -7
NY Giants at Minnesota
5 of 16
NY Giants at Minnesota
1:00 PM FOX
Mall of America Field
The New York Giants take on the streaking Minnesota Vikings this week and it is unclear if Brett Favre will be in the lineup.
Favre was hurt last week and because of his uncertainty the latest line has yet to be released. When it is released it will be posted here at BetEd.com.
Regardless of who plays quarterback, the Vikings are playing some good football right now. New head coach Leslie Frazier has energized this team and the results are showing on the field.
The Giants are one of the better teams in the NFC this year, but this game will give them some trouble. They finished off the Redskins last week in a blowout and are in a divisional sandwich on the schedule with the Philadelphia Eagles on tap next week.
The Giants are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game and 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win of more than 14 points.
The Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games against a team with a winning road record and 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 home games.
The Giants do not play well after a big win and the Vikinsg are a good home team playing very good football.
Vikings
Tampa Bay at Washington
6 of 16
Tampa Bay at Washington
1:00 PM FOX
FedEx Field
The Washington Redskins will try to put the Albert Haynesworth incident behind them when they take on the always improving Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Online Sportsbook BetEd.com has listed the Buccaneers as three point road favorites for this game.
The Buccaneers are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games as a road favorite and 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games following a loss. The Buccaneers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
The Redskins are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
The Redskins always seem to rebound after a poor showing and need a win to let Haynesworth know they are just fine without him.
The Bucs are coming off a very tough loss to the Falcons that could have made their season. They will have a hangover in this game and are not polished enough to be a road favorite.
Redskins +3
Atlanta at Carolina
7 of 16
Atlanta at Carolina
1:00 PM FOX
Bank of America Stadium
The Atlanta Falcons are arguably the best team in the NFC and this week will play one of the worst as they take on the Carolina Panthers. It’s no surprise that the Falcons are seven point road favorites over the pathetic Panthers.
The Panthers may not be winning games, but they seem to play tough week in and week out. Head coach John Fox has the team playing hard and the defense is actually putting up some impressive numbers. In fact they rank higher than the Falcons in total defense and that is saying a lot for a defense that had to make up for such a poor offensive unit.
The Panthers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games in December and 4-1-1 ATS in their last six home games against a team with a winning road record. The home team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
The Falcons are in a letdown spot and they will lose this game on the road.
Carolina +7
Oakland at Jacksonville
8 of 16
Oakland at Jacksonville
1:00 PM CBS
EverBank Field
The Jacksonville Jaguars are in first place in their division but if they want to stay that way, they will have to beat the unpredictable Oakland Raiders. The Jaguars are getting some respect from the NFL oddsmakers as they are five point favorites over the silver and black.
The Raiders are coming off one of their most impressive wins of the season. The Chargers were making a run to the AFC West title and were favored by 13 points over the Raiders. The Chargers showed up flat and the Raiders dominated and hammered the Bolts. They look to carry that momentum into the game against the Jaguars.
The Jaguars are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite, 7-15 ATS in their last 22 home games and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0. The Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games and 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games against a team with a winning home record.
The Raiders defense stopped one of the most explosive offenses in the league and will have some success against the Jags. Oakland is riding high and will come close to pulling off another upset in Week 14.
Raiders +5
Seattle at San Francisco
9 of 16
Seattle at San Francisco
4:05 PM FOX
Candlestick Park
The Seattle Seahawks and the San Francisco 49ers do battle in the league’s worst division. It is a sad state of affairs when these two teams are still alive for a playoff berth with the seasons they have both put up.
Somehow BetEd.com has made the 49ers 4.5 point favorites this week over the Birds. Head coach Mike Singletary announced he will start Alex Smith at quarterback this week and will announce which QB will start from week-to-week. Ironically that is the same position Singletary is in. His job security is weak at best and his status is week-to-week.
The Seahawks are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games as a road underdog and 3-22-2 ATS in their last 27 games following a win of more than 14 points.
The 49ers are 13-5-2 ATS in their last 20 games following a loss and 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game
Regardless of how bad things are for the 49ers, Seattle is possibly the worst road team in the league.
I will bite on the number in this game and drop the points.
49ers -4.5
St. Louis at New Orleans
10 of 16
St. Louis at New Orleans
4:05 PM FOX
Superdome
Don’t look now but the St. Louis Rams are playing some good football, but then again so are the New Orleans Saints. The Saints, who survived a scare in Cincinnati, are surprisingly big favorites against the revamped Rams.
The Rams are winning ballgames and in position to win the wretched NFC West. Although the Rams have not had good teams in years' past they still have a good record in the Big Easy.
The Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in New Orleans, 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall and the road team is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
The Saints are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following a win and 6-14 ATS in their last 20 against the NFC.
The Saints have a habit of laying down against bad teams (see Bengals) and if they are not careful they could get beat at home by the upstart Rams.
Rams +9
Miami at NY Jets
11 of 16
Miami at NY Jets
4:15 PM CBS
New Meadowlands Stadium
The New York Jets will look to regroup after getting pounded on Monday Night Football when they host the Miami Dolphins. The loss did not faze NFL oddsmakers at BetEd.com as they listed the Jets as six point favorites.
The Dolphins are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games against a team with a winning home record and 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games. The Jets are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss and the road team is 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight meetings.
The Dolphins need to win every game and that loss against the Browns could cripple this team if they don’t rebound against the Jets. The Dolphins will have to win out to even have a small shot at the postseason.
The Jets are on a short week and have the Steelers on deck, they won’t have time to correct their flaws for this game and the Dolphins will use the Patriots blue print to slow down the Jets offense.
Miami +6
Denver at Arizona
12 of 16
Denver at Arizona
4:15 PM CBS
U of Phoenix Stadium
The Denver Broncos will play against the Arizona Cardinals in one of the ugliest games of the week. Arizona has mailed it in on the season and the Broncos just fired head coach Josh McDaniels. Even with all of the turmoil, the latest odds on this game are still not posted.
Here is the breakdown for this game: Zzzzzzzzzzz...
The Broncos are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings and the Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
I won’t bet on it or watch it, but the theme this year is to bet on new coaches in their first game if the last coach was not well received.
By Default: Denver
Kansas City at San Diego
13 of 16
Kansas City at San Diego
4:15 PM CBS
Qualcomm Stadium
In a game that could decide the AFC West, the San Diego Chargers host the division leading Kansas City Chiefs. The Chargers are listed as seven point home favorites by Bet Ed.com for this must win event.
The Chargers lost an opening night game to the Chiefs but were on pace to catch up with KC when they were derailed by the Oakland Raiders. The Chargers made mistakes on offense, defense and special teams against the Raiders and were never in the game, as they likely were looking ahead to this meeting.
The Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven against the AFC West and 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win. The Chargers are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0 and 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 home games against a team with a winning road record.
The Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings in San Diego
The Chargers have to win this game if they want to have any chance of winning the West and even a win would not guarantee a playoff berth.
These Chargers still have the best defense in the NFL and they should quiet the Chiefs running game and get revenge with a big win at home.
Chargers -7
New England at Chicago
14 of 16
New England at Chicago
4:15 PM CBS
Soldier Field
The New England Patriots coming off one of their biggest games of the year and will look to continue their winning ways this week against the Bears. Based on their prime time performance the Patriots are three point favorites over the Bears.
The Patriots do great when they have extra time to prepare but have been known to struggle when they are on a short week.
The Patriots are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game and the home team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. The Bears are 4-0 ATS against a team with a winning record and 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
The Bears defense will be the key and they have strong play at linebacker that can shut down the small-medium pass routes and bottle up the tight ends. The defense will force Brady to make some throws and pressure him to make turnovers.
The Bears win a big game and the Patriots fall flat after a big win against the Jets.
Bears +3
Sunday Night Football
15 of 16
Philadelphia at Dallas
8:20 PM NBC
Cowboys Stadium
The resurgent Dallas Cowboys look to make a statement at home when they play against Michael Vick and the Philadelphia Eagles. BetEd.com has the latest NFL odds for Sunday Night Football and the Cowboys are underdogs for this meeting.
The Cowboys are still playing inspired ball since Jason Garrett took over as head coach but will have to try and win this game without injured rookie Dez Bryant. Bryant is done for the season after hurting himself in the game against the Colts.
The Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games against a team with a losing home record and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. The Cowboys are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game and 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.
The Eagles are starting to show some weaknesses and Vick is complaining about the referees. Meanwhile DeSean Jackson is not playing up to par and his contract seems to be the problem. The problem will only be magnified when they lose to the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football.
Cowboys +3
Monday Night Football
16 of 16
Baltimore at Houston
8:30 PM ESPN
Reliant Stadium
The schedule makers for Monday Night Football grabbed another snoozer as the Houston Texans play host to the Baltimore Ravens. BetEd.com has the latest NFL odds for Monday Night Football and the Ravens are three point road favorites in this prime time contest.
It’s hard to figure out what is more amazing. The fact that the Texans have the seventh ranked offense in the NFL or that they are just two games out of the division lead. The Texans are snake bitten by a bad defense but play tight against some of the best teams in the league and are worth a look as a home dog.
The Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games against a team with a winning road record and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog.
The Ravens are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games as a road favorite and 1-4 ATS against a team with a losing record.
The Texans will give the Ravens a challenge and pull off the biggest upset of the week!
Houston +3
Matt Regaw is a B/R Featured Columnist and the founder of BookieBlitz.com, your one-stop shop for sports articles, previews and predictions. Feel free to contact Matt at mregaw@gmail.com.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
.jpg?w=600 "Post-June 1 Trade Candidates ☎️")
.JPG?w=600 "TO Talks Cowboys Relationship")
.jpg?w=600 "Taylor Heinicke Retiring")
.jpg?w=600 "49ers OC Hypes Mike Evans 🤩")