Peyton Manning: Why Is He Suddenly Throwing So Many Interceptions?

With eleven interceptions thrown in the last three games, including four returned for touchdowns, everyone is wondering what's wrong with Peyton Manning. Not only has he been tossing picks at an alarming pace, but in the past two games, Manning has thrown as many touchdowns to his opponents as he has to his teammates. To make matters worse, two 17 point comebacks in the past three games were foiled when potential game winning drives ended on Manning interceptions. Manning's performance in recent weeks has even some Colts fans questioning if Manning has the ability to perform at an elite level anymore. Manning's detractors have even sought to use this slump as an excuse to question Manning's ability all along. So what's going on?

Before I address Manning's performance directly, I want to put it into some context. Manning is on pace to break Drew Bledsoe's record for pass attempts in a season set at 691 back in 1994. Manning is averaging a staggering 44.5 pass attempts per game and is on pace for 712 pass attempts. Only three quarterbacks have averaged 40 or more pass attempts per game while throwing at least 600 pass attempts in a season. Drew Bledsoe did it in his record setting season of 1994 as well as the following year in 1995. Warren Moon did it in 1991 and 1994. Drew Brees did it in 2007 and is currently on pace to do it again this season.

While Manning's interceptions have garnered a lot of attention, his interception rate this season of 2.81% actually compares pretty well against these other pass-happy seasons. By comparison, Drew Brees is throwing interceptions at a rate of 3.30% this season—though no one is questioning his ability to perform at an elite level. At 2.76%, Drew Brees' interception rate in 2007 was only 0.05% better than Manning's this season. Warren Moon had interception rates of 3.21% and 3.16% in 1991 and 1994. Drew Bledsoe had the worst interception rate of the bunch at 3.91% in 1994 when he set the single-season pass attempt record. Drew Bledsoe's interception rate of 2.52% in 1995 was the only one that was really any better than Manning's interception rate this season.

It's worth noting that in 1995, Bledsoe's Patriots averaged 116.6 rushing yards per game. The running games in all these other pass-happy seasons averaged under 100 yards per game, though Moon's Oilers in 1991 and Brees' Saints this season both averaged a respectable 4.1 yards per carry. The Colts are averaging 79.1 rushing yards per game this season, which is the least of any of these teams in these pass-happy seasons. The Colts are averaging 3.5 yards per carry this season, which is the least as well with the exception of the 1994 Patriots, who averaged a putrid 2.8 yards per carry while Bledsoe threw his record 691 pass attempts.

Why am I bringing up running games in a discussion on passing? While it can be argued that teams will sometimes pass a lot because they want to (think Mike Martz offenses), clearly Peyton Manning is throwing passes at a historic rate this season because he has to. The Colts running game has been terrible. As bad as it has been over the course of the season, it has been even worse in the past three games, averaging a mere 45.0 yards per game and 2.7 yards per carry. While serving as commentators on the past two Colts games, both Chris Collinsworth and Troy Aikman have asked why the Colts even bother trying to run the ball.

The complete lack of any kind of run support forces Manning into passing in unfavorable situations, which naturally lead to undesireable outcomes. Not only is play action thrown completely out the window—which is a prime source for big plays down the field—but pass rushes can pin their ears back and focus on getting after the quarterback, and coverages can be upgraded with nickel and dime packages. There's a reason why offenses try to stay in what is referred to manageable situations, while defenses love to get into third and longs. The lack of a running game essentially turns every down for the Colts offense into a third and long as far as opposing defenses are concerned.

Now a bad running game is nothing new to Peyton Manning and the Colts. Their running game was among the league's very worst in 2008 and 2009 as well. Manning was able to turn 2008 and 2009 into MVP seasons, so what's the difference this year? Well obviously the much talked about rash of injuries the Colts have suffered through have made a difference. Injuries to running backs Joseph Addai and Mike Hart along with injuries to tight ends Dallas Clark and Brody Eldridge have set the Colts running game back even further in recent weeks. On top of that, the aforementioned injury to Dallas Clark as well as injuries to wide receivers Austin Collie, Anthony Gonzalez, and Blair White have directly impacted the Colts passing game. Even the wide receivers who have been available to play throughout Manning's slump, Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon, have been battling through injuries this season and missing practices.

Now some will disregard the Colts slew of injuries on offense as simply being part of the game and cite Rivers' strong performance this season despite seeing his receiving core hit in a similarly harsh manner. Others will think back to 2008 when Drew Brees very nearly broke Dan Marino's single-season record for passing yards in spite of his receiving core being hit extremely hard as well. To understand the difference, you first need to understand the Colts passing game.

The Colts passing game is unique in that it is predicated so heavily on timing. In a sense, Manning doesn't throw to his receivers, he throws to locations on the field. In the Colts offense, Manning is expected to deliver the ball to a specific point on the field at a specific point in time and the receiver is expected to be at that specific point on the field at that specific point in time. To further complicate things, the Colts passing game relies heavily on its receivers running option routes based on the coverage. The expectation is that both Manning and his receiver will read the defense the same way because Manning will be making his pass before the receiver even makes his break. Obviously under these circumstances, it is of the utmost importance for Manning and his receivers to be on the same page.

This is why Manning spends so much time in the off season and before games working with his receivers. This is why practices during the week are so important to the Colts offense. When receivers can't practice, they get out of sync with Manning. When new receivers are signed off the practice squad and forced into the lineup, they are thrown out onto the field without the benefit of a full off season of practice with Manning. This is why Chris Collinsworth made a point of mentioning during the Colts game against the Chargers how much being able to finally practice has helped Garcon improve over what has been until recently a very disappointing season for him.

Not only does Manning and his receivers being out of sync lead to those situations where the pass goes in one direction while the receiver goes another, but it also forces Manning to shift more of his concentration onto figuring out what the receiver is doing rather than what the coverage is doing. Troy Aikman made a great observation during the Colts game against the Cowboys about how he is seeing Manning doing things like staring down his receivers that he never does. If Manning can't look off his receivers like he is used to doing, defenders can follow his eyes and make jumps on the ball. Many of Manning's interceptions have come from defenders breaking off their coverage on a different receiver than the one Manning was targeting to make a play on the ball because they saw where Manning was going with it.

Another key factor and difference from Rivers' situation this season and Brees' situation in 2008 is pass protection. Although Manning has the lowest sack rate in the league this season, he is enduring quite a bit of pressure from opposing pass rushes. The pocket is quickly being collapsed around him and defenders are getting around his feet and hitting him during throws. Without space to step up into throws, Manning loses steam on them and is going to be less accurate. Obviously any throw made while getting hit is going to take on a life of its own. When a pass rush gets to a quarterback quickly, he simply does not have the time to let plays develop, especially down the field, and is forced to make passes into tighter coverage and/or settle for shorter passes of minimal gain. On top of this, when a defense knows its pass rush is going to get to the quarterback quickly, its coverage will play tighter and more aggressively because it doesn't fear getting beat deep. You simply cannot measure pass protection by sacks, you have to measure it by time and space in the pocket.

To get an idea of just how bad the Colts pass protection has been, consider that the Colts benched both of their opening day starters at guard, Jamey Richard and Mike Pollak, and made backups Kyle DeVan and Jeff Linkenbach their starters. Just this week, they turned around and benched DeVan and Linkenbach and re-inserted Richard and Pollak. It's bad enough when a team loses a starting offensive lineman to injury, but with all the benching one has to ask if the Colts ever truly had a starting guard on either side of the line. Keep in mind that DeVan is an undrafted second year player who was playing in the Arena League two seasons ago, while Linkenbach is an undrafted rookie tackle who was trying to learn the guard position as he went along.

To get an idea of the importance of pass protection, think before Brees' 2008 season back to his 2007 season when pass protection was an issue for the Saints. Brees had an interception rate, QB rating, and YPA average all very similar to Manning this season. In 2008 when his pass protection was solidified but his receivers were hit hard by injury, Brees' interception rate, QB rating, and YPA all improved significantly. This year Manning gets to deal with both the pass protection issues and the injured receivers—all with no running game. That's what some might call a perfect storm.