Dale Tallon's Next Big Challenge: Sign Tomas Vokoun or Not ?

Dale Tallon was rewarded for putting together the best young team in hockey by getting fired by the Chicago Blackhawks. Florida Panther ownership stepped in to sign him.

The Florida Panthers have drifted since Alan Cohen put together a group to buy the team in 2001 for a reported $101 million. Throughout that, despite a lack of success, Panther management insisted on paying, often over-paying, their own draft picks. Somehow a team that has been out of the playoffs since 2001 and has managed to carry one of the most expensive rosters in the league year after year. The money was spent on a roster of high-priced young talent that was either never evaluated properly when they were drafted or not developed properly by the organization.

Florida general managers seemed terrified to lose "any" of their draft picks, perhaps fearing embarrassment or unemployment, if struggling Florida youngsters shone in another market. Worse still there seemed no mechanism in place to separate the wheat from the chaff. There seemed to be no analysis of what the team's actual needs were and no effort made to fill them.  

The Florida Panthers were the weakest defensive team in hockey for the last decade. Despite the huge shots against count in Florida defense was never addressed in a meaningful way. No triage of the existing defense or system of play that allowed such unbalanced shots against numbers ever seemed to take place. They finally put a finger in the dike with Tomas Vokoun, when they got him away from the Nashville Predators  for a first and second round draft pick in 2008 and a second rounder in 2007. The defense though was ignored for the next three seasons.

Dale Tallon in his first few minutes in town made a couple small adjustments to personnel that have produced a measurable defensive improvement in Florida. After giving up the most shots against for the last three years in a row Florida is now 20th in the league in shots against. Baby steps to be sure, yet for three years in a row the existing brain trust in Florida either couldn't see the problem or couldn't fix the problem.

Despite having one of the best goaltenders in hockey the Panther penalty kill was 23rd in the league last year. It's currently 12th and 3.7% points more successful.

You can't plan a parade around these numbers but a hockey guy has been put in charge. He has identified problems and moved to solve them.

Now the biggest problem in Florida is the offense. That will need either a collective development by current roster members, the drafting of that next great offensive star who will carry this team of under-performers forward by himself, or a big quality free agent signing or trade.  

Unfortunately before that's likely to happen Tomas Vokoun will become an unrestricted free agent. He is in the last year of a $5.7 million a year contract.

Vokoun, currently 34, has been one of the top five goalies in the league for the last half decade. Vokoun, Tim Thomas, Henrik Lundqvist, Martin Brodeur and Roberto Luongo are the league leaders in save percentage among goalies who have started at least half of their team's games during that five and a quarter season stretch. Tomas has the best save percentage in the league for that period of time with .92144.  

Tomas Vokoun is a top echelon veteran goalie with a great track record. How much is that worth in the NHL? The average starter in the league this year is making $3.65 million a year. The top six cap hits among goalies according to hockeybuzz.com are Henrik Lundqvist at $6.875, Cam Ward at $6.3, Ryan Miller at $6.25 million, JS Giguere at $6 million, Kiprusoff at $5.83 million and Vokoun at $5.7 million. He is going to want to be paid in this price range or higher.

Florida has the cap space for him. The question becomes how much will you pay for him and for how long? Veterans can be expected to see their play drop off. Some like Dwayne Roloson or Dominic Hasek are able to play forever. Others see a huge decline in their play and it can happen fast. Older players tend to be more susceptible to injury as well. 

During the last five seasons Vokoun has been the soul of consistency. Playing with Nashville in 2005-06 he was in 61 games and had a .919 save percentage, 4 shut-outs and a 2.67 goals against average. Last year in Florida he played in 63 games. He had a .925 save percentage, 7 shut-outs and a 2.55 goals against average.  

If the team can sign him for four to five years in the five to six million dollar range then he probably solves the goaltending problems in Florida for a half decade. This will provide time for another year of seasoning in the AHL for Jacob Markstrom, if he needs it. It should not represent an onerous cap hit.

If Florida manages to improve their defense and solve that scoring problem they will already have the Stanley Cup capable goalie in their line up. One piece of the puzzle will be in place. 

More money or more years than that, represents a huge risk with an aging goalie. Tallon already has one huge goaltending blunder on his resume from when he signed the erratic Cristobal Huet to a long expensive free agent contract. He may be reluctant to sign a 34 year old long term.   

The second option is to try to trade Vokoun now or at the dead-line for draft picks. That kind of move is likely to demoralize the line-up. It will probably represent a huge step backwards for a franchise that has not managed many steps forward since their early success in the NHL. Scott Clemmenson has not flourished in Florida and calling up Markstrom before he masters the AHL seems like a mistake.

Florida would then have to go find another goalie to carry the load. Florida's improved defense might make it easier for an average goalie to succeed there now. More picks or prospects equal greater potential future depth. Perhaps the Panthers can unload Vokoun and yet succeed in another year or two with Markstrom or another goalie doing the job in nets. The $5.7 million in cap space could be used to sign that top quality offensive player that they seem to be lacking.

This problem is similar to the problems he left behind in Chicago. He'll need to make the right decision to keep things going forward in Florida.