Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens: Predicting the Winner by Position
You don’t have to be a fan of either of these teams to appreciate the level of intensity and passion the Baltimore Ravens (8-3) and Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3) bring to this heated NFL rivalry—quite possibly the best rivalry in the entire history of the NFL.
On Sunday night in Baltimore, both of these AFC juggernauts will meet again for the second time, two months after the Ravens marched into Pittsburgh to steal the win with only a few seconds remaining on the clock.
It’s hard to imagine Sunday night’s game ending in a blowout for either team, since history indicates the winner usually escapes with less than a 10-point margin of victory.
In order to accurately predict the winner of Sunday night’s highly anticipated rematch, we need to examine how both teams are performing at every position at this point in the season.
We will look at the facts, and then give a rating from “Big Advantage” to “Even”, for every key position on both teams.
Todd McGregor is a Baltimore Ravens Featured Columnist here on BleacherReport.com
Follow Todd's work on Twitter! Twitter.com/ravens023
Quarterbacks: Ben Roethlisberger vs. Joe Flacco
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It’s been nearly four years since the Ravens have defeated the Steelers when Ben Roethlisberger is under center.
However, those stats are history, and the Ravens have a very different team than in recent years—a team that is finally built on scoring points with ease.
Roethlisberger will be wearing a protective boot on his right foot after suffering a hairline fracture against the Buffalo Bills last week.
Roethlisberger may be the best quarterback in the NFL at extending plays for positive yardage, using his legs to do so.
A hairline fracture is painful no matter where in the body it’s located, so one must figure Roethlisberger’s mobility will suffer to a certain degree.
In the seven games Roethlisberger has started since serving his four-game suspension, the Steelers All-Pro quarterback has led the team to a 5-2 record, posting a 99.1 passer rating in the process.
Roethlisberger has struggled when Pittsburgh heavily favors the pass over the run. If the Steelers can find some balance in their play calling Sunday night, Roethlisberger should have a solid game (if his foot injury doesn’t pose a problem).
Now let's take a look at what Baltimore Ravens QB Joe Flacco brings to the table in this matchup.
Quarterbacks: Ben Roethlisberger vs. Joe Flacco
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Ravens QB Joe Flacco remains the highest-rated passer in the NFL since Week 2, and has yet to lose a game at home in 2010. Flacco's last loss at home came at the hands of the Indianapolis Colts on November 22, a 17-15 victory for Peyton Manning and his Colts.
Flacco has nearly been impossible to stop in 2010 when playing at M&T Bank Stadium. Flacco threw his first interception at home in a win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week, but still managed to have a great game against a stingy Buccaneers defense.
Not taking into consideration the past accolades of Flacco and Roethlisberger, and only going on 2010 stats, Flacco has accomplished just a little more than Roethlisberger, and still continues to prove his critics wrong.
You have to like the chances Baltimore has at home playing with a hot and healthy quarterback.
Slight Edge: Joe Flacco (BAL)
Running Backs: Rashard Mendenhall vs. Ray Rice
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Steelers RB Rashard Mendenhall embraces everything Pittsburgh as a team is about—power, passion and physicality.
During the first half of the 2010 season, offensive coordinator Bruce Arians approached every game with a run-first mentality, handing the ball off to their star third-year running back.
In the first meeting between the Ravens and Steelers back in early October, Mendenhall wasn’t overpowering with 79 yards rushing. However, Mendenhall found the end zone twice, helping to keep the Steelers competitive against Baltimore.
Mendenhall is a strong north-south runner. He had some success against the Ravens running straight at the heart of their defensive line, so it’s not unreasonable to believe Pittsburgh will stick with this same game plan.
Mendenhall is only 38 yards shy of the 1,000-yard mark this season, so his extra motivation to break this milestone could lead to a productive day for the young running back.
Will Ravens RB Ray Rice have a big day against Pittsburgh Sunday night?
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Running Backs: Rashard Mendenhall vs. Ray Rice
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Not too many people would have expected Ravens RB Ray Rice to be somewhat of a disappointment this season.
Part of Rice’s lack in productivity had to do with a severely bruised knee over a month ago. The other contributing part falls on the shoulders of offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, who has favored a consistent passing attack over pounding Rice on every down.
Still, Rice has managed to remain a big part of the Ravens offense, mainly in the passing game. In addition, Rice looks to be at 100 percent health, finally gaining that initial burst of speed every fan is familiar with.
Plain and simple, if the Ravens want their dreams of sweeping the Steelers this season to come true, Cameron must establish the run early and often. RB Willis McGahee might get a few cracks at Pittsburgh’s stout run defense, but Rice has the potential to be the deciding factor.
Rice’s eight rushing attempts for 20 yards in the last meeting will not be enough to get it done this time around.
Rice is overdue for a huge game, and that game will come this season. However, it’s highly unlikely it will come against the Steelers.
Slight Edge: Rashard Mendenhall (PIT)
Wide Receivers: Mike Wallace vs. Anquan Boldin
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The Pittsburgh Steelers have two deep threats in the passing game, receivers Mike Wallace, and rookie Emmanuel Sanders. Both young receivers have breathtaking speed and are a danger to any secondary they face.
Wallace is putting up Pro Bowl-type numbers in 2010. The second-year player leads all Pittsburgh receivers with 792 yards through the air and averages over 20 yards per reception.
Wallace is still in the developmental stage when it comes to his route-running skills, however.
Wallace has the speed to compensate for any deficiencies in sharp route-running, but speed alone will not beat the Baltimore secondary.
During the first meeting between the Ravens and Steelers, Baltimore was able to contain Wallace, holding him to 24 yards and only two receptions. The Ravens historically match-up well against receivers that lack sharp route-running skills.
Now, let’s look at the top threat to Pittsburgh’s defense, WR Anquan Boldin.
Wide Receivers: Mike Wallace vs. Anquan Boldin
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WR Anquan Boldin hasn’t played much of a role in Baltimore’s offense over the past several weeks. However, he leads all Baltimore receivers with 51 receptions. Boldin also leads the team with 652 yards in receptions and six touchdowns.
Boldin is known for his physicality and precision in running routes—not to mention he owns some of the strongest hands in the NFL.
The last time these two teams met, Boldin caught seven passes for a total of 68 yards.
Pittsburgh’s WR Mike Wallace tops Boldin in stats this season, but Boldin and other Ravens receivers fared much better against the Steelers defense in the first matchup.
Slight Edge: Anquan Boldin (BAL)
Tight Ends: Heath Miller vs. Todd Heap
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It’s no secret that Steelers TE Heath Miller serves in more of a blocking role, rather than catching passes out of the backfield.
Miller’s production has been increasing recently, but he’s yet to top 60 yards in 2010. Miller’s only touchdown of the season came against the Cleveland Browns back in Week 6, and ever since then, has quietly served in Pittsburgh’s offense.
Ravens TE Todd Heap on the other hand, continues to make big plays when Baltimore needs it most.
So which tight end will win the battle Sunday night?
Tight Ends: Heath Miller vs. Todd Heap
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Todd Heap’s NFL career has been plagued with injuries for the most part. This season, Heap is near 100 percent health, and it’s finally showing.
Pittsburgh has a great group of linebackers that usually do a great job at covering tight ends. However, throughout the second half of the season, Heap has established himself as a viable weapon on offense, and as a result, has managed four touchdowns in the last five games.
Heap has also averaged 10 or more yards per reception in every game this season, with the exception of Week 2 in Cincinnati, where Heap averaged 8.8 yards per catch.
If Boldin and Mason are covered, Heap could be in for a big game. Heap is one threat Pittsburgh can’t ignore.
Big Edge: Todd Heap (BAL)
Defense: Steelers vs. Ravens
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Need we say more? Both Baltimore and Pittsburgh are mirror images of one another, and this especially holds true on defense. The Steelers and Ravens might not statistically have the best defense in the NFL, but every week, it’s usually the defense that wins games for these teams.
Baltimore ranks eighth in total defense, and Pittsburgh ranks fifth. A three-yard average separates the two squads from being tied with each other in total defense.
Each team has an equally stellar game-changing player on defense.
Baltimore safety Ed Reed has finally returned to mid-season form after recovering from offseason hip surgery. Reed has transformed Baltimore’s secondary in a positive way since his return. Baltimore’s defensive backs aren’t getting beat deep as often, and the defense as a whole is playing much more aggressively, knowing Reed is there to help over the top.
Since Reed’s return to the team, he’s forced four interceptions and one fumble. As Reed’s strength improves, so does that of the Baltimore defense. These changes are evident if you watch the Ravens play on a weekly basis.
Linebackers Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs aren’t missing a step either. Lewis, once again, leads the entire Ravens defense in tackles with 95.
Suggs has half the amount of tackles Lewis has, but his contributions have come in the form of sacks with 7.5 on the season, and four over the last five games.
Suggs is heating up at the perfect time, and with Pittsburgh’s offensive line struggling to keep Roethlisberger upright, Sunday night could be a breakout game for Suggs.
Defense: Steelers vs. Ravens (continued)
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There’s only one other player in the NFL that compares to Ravens safety Ed Reed, and that’s Pittsburgh’s Troy Polamalu.
Polamalu, like Reed, has four interceptions so far this season. What’s more impressive is the fact Polamalu has racked up 55 tackles—an amazing stat for a safety.
In a secondary that has struggled at times this season, Polamalu has remained the most consistent player on the team.
Pittsburgh simply isn’t the same team without their future Hall of Famer on the field, and it really showed last year, when the Steelers missed the playoffs by losing winnable games late in the season.
Like Baltimore’s Ray Lewis, Polamalu is in on almost every play, and plays with a level of passion only Ray Lewis and Ed Reed can match.
All of these future Hall of Fame players live for games like the one set to take place Sunday night. It’s safe to say one of these elite athletes will contribute to a game-changing play at some point during Sunday’s contest.
Even: Steelers and Ravens Defense
Special Teams: Steelers vs. Ravens
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Both Pittsburgh and Baltimore have had their struggles returning kickoffs and punts in 2010. Both teams have experimented with several players in an attempt to find the most yardage in the return game.
Steelers WR Emmanuel Sanders has been the go-to guy as of late, returning kickoffs for Pittsburgh. Emmanuel has the speed to go the distance on every attempt, but lacks patience in waiting for blocks to develop down field.
Baltimore has had it much worse returning kicks this season. The longest return the Ravens have managed on a kickoff was 84 yards, thanks to WR David Reed. Baltimore recently has elected to use the rookie Reed in the kick return game, mainly because of his speed and the threat he poses to score on every return.
However, like Steelers rookie Emmanuel Sanders, Reed lacks the patience to read blocks. Reed’s 29-yard average per kick return isn’t bad, and it looks like Baltimore will stick with the young rookie on special teams, all but ending the carousel of return men in Baltimore.
Special Teams: Steelers vs. Ravens (continued)
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One aspect of special teams that is likely to decide Sunday night’s game is field goal attempts.
Baltimore has most likely found their kicker of the future in Billy Cundiff. The ability of Cundiff to boot the football through the opponent’s end zone has given Baltimore a tremendous advantage in field position.
So far, 31 of 55 kickoffs booted by Cundiff have resulted in touchbacks—many often overlook this amazing stat.
If wind isn’t a factor Sunday night, Cundiff’s strong leg should help Baltimore win the field position battle.
Cundiff has also hit 18 out of 21 field goal attempts, including one kick over 50 yards.
Pittsburgh on the other hand, has had trouble relying on just one place-kicker. The veteran Jeff Reed started the season for the Steelers, but personal struggles ensued during Pittsburgh’s last meeting with Baltimore.
Reed failed to connect on any attempts in the 40-49 yard range in the 2010 season, and was soon replaced by Shaun Suisham. Since Suisham arrived in the Steel City, he’s connected on all of his four attempts.
The toughest test for Suisham will come this Sunday in Baltimore. M&T Bank Stadium isn’t the toughest place to kick field goals, but crowd noise and a hostile environment always plays negatively on visiting kickers.
In a game that could come down to a missed field goal, Suisham will need to be perfect in both converting field goals, and setting his team up for optimal field position.
Slight Edge: Baltimore Ravens Special Teams
Who Has the Edge in Sunday Night's Matchup?
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Even though Baltimore holds a slight edge in some of the key areas listed throughout this presentation, this highly anticipated rematch could end up being closer than the first contest.
Many considered Baltimore’s 17-14 win in Pittsburgh to be an upset at the time. However, nothing can be farther from the truth, as both teams are like identical twins—complete mirror images of each other.
Round two of this heavyweight matchup will likely come down to one big play made by either team, or the opposite, a missed opportunity on special teams.
Pittsburgh can improve their chances of victory by sticking to the running game, using RB Rashard Mendenhall as an every-down back. The Steelers abandoned their successful running game against the Ravens back in October, in favor of a passing attack that struggled mightily.
Who Has the Edge in Sunday Night's Matchup? (continued)
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Baltimore’s road to success Sunday night is quite simple if they can stick to their game plan. RB Ray Rice needs to be involved heavily in the offense, and most of his yards need to come on the ground. If the Ravens can establish a solid rushing attack, this will lead to what Baltimore does best—play-action passing.
The Ravens went out during the offseason and purchased big-time receivers for games just like this. WR Anquan Boldin needs to get involved in the action Sunday night. Boldin’s physicality presents a favorable matchup for the Ravens, going up against a physical defense.
WR Derrick Mason will be key in the time of possession game. If QB Joe Flacco establishes a rhythm with Mason, as he did last week against Tampa Bay, Baltimore will keep drives alive and likely win the time of possession battle.
With everything said, the winner of this game will take a one game lead in the AFC North, and could be the favorite to win the division.
The playoffs unofficially start Sunday for the Steelers and Ravens, and every player knows what’s on the line—quite possibly a first round Bye in the AFC playoff race.
Slight Edge: Baltimore Ravens (3-10 points)
Todd McGregor is a Baltimore Ravens Featured Columnist here on BleacherReport.com
Follow Todd's work on Twitter! Twitter.com/ravens023
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