Super Bowl Predictions: What Did We Learn in Week 12?
With the San Francisco 49ers systematic destruction of the Arizona Cardinals last night, we are now coming down the stretch on the 2010 NFL season. It's promising to be one of the more thrilling finishes in league history with every single division having a first place tie or a second place team no more than one game back.
You could argue that 21 of the leagues 32 teams have a reasonable shot at making the postseason, with 12 weeks in, is an incredible statistic. Perhaps even more incredible is preseason Super Bowl favorites, the Vikings, Cowboys and Bengals are not amongst those teams.
The question is, who amongst those 23 teams truly have a chance to hoist the Lombardi trophy in February?
Let's take a look at the list!
The Pretending Contenders
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While 20 teams are within striking distance of a playoff berth, the list can be narrowed down by those that are true contenders (the Patriots) vs. a team that would make little to no noise in the postseason (Seahawks) These are the teams that still have very little chance of winning the Super Bowl.
1) Houston Texans: Their offense is explosive and if their record was better, Arian Foster could be considered the MVP of the league. But the Texans pass defense is the worst in the league, and the team still doesn't know how to win the big games. While the surprisingly mediocre AFC South is still up for grabs, the Texans would likely get blown away playing against the AFC powers.
2) Tennessee Titans: Randy Moss just can't win. Even when he's not the center of a team disruption, he still finds a way to be involved with teams that do. Coach Jeff Fisher and Vince Young are heading for a showdown where the loser leaves town. Meanwhile, the team looks like it's in danger of imploding.
3) Jacksonville Jaguars: When the Tennessee Titans and Kansas City Chiefs embarrassed this team in Weeks 6 and 7, it looked like the end of the Jack Del Rio era in Jacksonville. But instead of folding up and quitting, the team won three games in a row and currently leads the AFC South with a 6-5 record. However, they have one of the worst point differentials in football and clearly lack the pieces to become a true contender.
4) Indianapolis Colts: Many people would disagree lumping the Colts into this group, but their Sunday night debacle against the San Diego Chargers proved one thing: the Colts simply aren't that good right now. Now one has to realize this team has been crippled by injuries to their running backs, receivers and coverage players on defense. The fact is though the team as is doesn't stack up to other AFC contenders. With the almost certainty, they'd have to go on the road twice in the playoffs, it's unlikely we'll see this team back in the Super Bowl.
5) Oakland Raiders: The Raiders flirted with contention holding a 5-4 record after nine weeks. However, midnight struck and their season has turned back into a pumpkin as they have lost two straight and now sit two games out of first. The AFC West has two teams ahead of them that could win out, or go on losing streaks, meaning the Raiders aren't truly out of it. But if they somehow won this division, they'd be eaten alive by the AFC contenders.
6) Kansas City Chiefs: At 7-4, the AFC West leaders have been overachieving all season. Coming off numerous miserable seasons in KC, most people saw this team around the 6-10 or 7-9 mark. But with a strong running game, a young hungry defense and an emerging passing attack, the Chiefs have surprised many. With all this said, the Chargers are nipping at their heels and it's pretty apparent that the Chiefs are not yet at the level of the Patriots or Steelers. That could be a different story though in 2011.
7) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Fans of the Bucs have to be thrilled their team is 7-4, considering most people predicted this team would be one of the worst in the league. Quarterback Josh Freeman looks like the real deal, and this young team is growing by the week. With all that said, it's clear the Bucs are not amongst the elite having lost (two being blowouts) four games to Super Bowl contending opponents. The future is bright in Tampa, but 2010 is not yet the time for this team to truly shine.
8-10) St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49'ers: I decided to lump all these teams in one. One of these three teams has to win the NFC West, with quite possibly a losing record. For the Rams, that'd be an achievement seeing as they won three games the previous two years. It'd mark an improvement for the Seahawks. However for the 49'ers, whom many felt could compete for a bye this season, winning this division with an 8-8 or 7-9 record would be bittersweet. The fact one of these teams will have home field in the Wild Card round, you have to give them a chance. But once they go on the road, they will be fodder for a team like Atlanta or Philadelphia.
Teams That Believe They Can Contend: New York Giants
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The Giants are a team that personifies Jekyll and Hyde. They started their year struggling including getting embarrassed by the Colts on national TV. Two weeks later, they're sacking Bears quarterback Jay Cutler nine times in a half and by Week 9, they looked like the best team in the NFC. Follow that up with losses to the Cowboys and Eagles and a narrow victory over the Jaguars, and it's anyone’s guess who the Giants really are.
This could go one of two ways in my eyes. Either the Giants will go on a slide, finish 9-7 and miss the playoffs. Or they could very well mimic their 2007 Championship team, going 11-5 or 10-6, get a Wild Card bid and claw their way to Super Bowl contention.
Chicago Bears
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This is another team that is constantly up and down. There are two ways you can view the Bears. On the one hand, they' would be 9-2 had Lovie Smith challenged a play on the field that was called a fumble when in fact Jay Cutler had scored a touchdown on a sneak before the ball was knocked out of his hands.
However, there are those that will talk about the fact that Cutler will literally throw away the season or that offensive coordinator Mike Martz will eventually go away from the formula that's helped them win four straight games, including last week's important win against the Eagles.
And despite seeing a vast improvement from the first half of the season, the Bears have the worst statistical offensive line in football, having surrendered 41 sacks. In defense of them though, nine of those or roughly 20 percent of their season total, came in just one half against the Giants.
Though they're 8-3, they face probably the NFL's hardest last four games as they have to play host to the Patriots, travel to Minnesota, come home to face the Jets and end their year by playing at Green Bay which could very well determine who goes to the playoffs and who stays home.
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Green Bay Packers
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If this team were healthy, there is no doubt they would be a true contender. It's actually amazing that this team is still in the playoff hunt given they've lost numerous key players on both sides of the ball to season-ending injuries. Despite having almost no running game, Aaron Rodgers has this team controlling its own playoff destiny, as long as they stay within striking distance of the Bears and beat them on Week 17.
That isn't guaranteed though with games against teams like the desperate 49'ers, Giants and Patriots though. They also face the real possibility of having to travel for at least two of their playoff games in order to get to the Super Bowl.
San Diego Chargers
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The Chargers are making yet another late season surge to the playoffs. Coming off their dominant win over the Colts, on the road no less, confidence is again sky high in San Diego. If they get into the postseason, they will again be dangerous as they have the talent to compete with anyone in the AFC.
One huge issue though is if they even get into the postseason. The Chiefs are 7-4 and sit one game ahead of them and don't look like a team that will just wilt and die away the way the Broncos have numerous times the past few years. The Chargers will have to almost certainly go 4-1, if not 5-0 the rest of the way to ensure they win the division.
If they can get in, then look out. However, you can't call a team a true Super Bowl contender, when they are currently on the outside looking in the playoff bubble.
The True Super Bowl Contenders: New England Patriots
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While this NFL season has been one of the most unpredictable thus far, one constant has been the New England Patriots contending for a title. Most teams that trade their No. 1 receiver struggle. But the Patriots are not most teams. Since the departure of Moss, the Patriots offense has become even most potent with a combination of rookies, undrafted free agents and receivers from the scrapheap.
Sitting at 9-2 with the Jets coming to down on next Monday, the playoff future looks very bright for this team moving forward. In addition to their success this year, the Pats will undoubtedly be motivated to improve on their poor showing in the playoffs last year.
New York Jets
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The New York Jets are a team many will debate on how good they really are. They're 9-2, Mark Sanchez continues to improve, and they have a top tier defense. On the other hand, the Jets nearly lost to the Browns and Lions and didn't exactly look like world beaters against the struggling Bengals.
However, you can't really argue that at 9-2, the Jets are a legitimate Super Bowl threat. Their upcoming game against the Patriots will most likely determine whether they're a 13-3 team with a bye or a 12-4 Wild Card team having to travel to an opponent with a worse record.
Even if they end up the fifth seed in the conference, their success on the road in last year's postseason should tell the rest of the league that the Jets have the capability of beating anyone at any time.
Pittsburgh Steelers
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Like so many other contenders, the Steelers have had their ups and downs. They're coming off a win against the Bills, that could have easily been a bad loss had receiver Steve Johnson caught what should have been an easy game-winning grab in the end zone. But that's why the Steelers have won six Super Bowls and contending for another one, and why the Bills sit 2-9 as a bottom feeder again.
The Steelers might be on the lower end of the true contenders but have all the parts in place to make another run in the postseason. Their upcoming game against the Ravens will surely go a long way to determine which team gets a bye and which one will be a road warrior.
Baltimore Ravens
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The Ravens seem to mimic their hated rival Steelers in many ways. Both sit at 8-3, have strong rushing attacks and consistent quarterback play. Heck, both teams own narrow overtime wins over the Bills. However, the one big difference is the fact the Ravens beat the Steelers on the road earlier this season. Should the Ravens beat the Steelers again this weekend, they just need to play strong until the end of the season, and they'll have a bye wrapped up.
Philadelphia Eagles
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Despite their loss to the Bears, I still believe the Eagles belong in this category. You will hear many experts and broadcasters talk about the fact that the Bears defense "contained" Michael Vick. However, is that really fair? You tell me if you call these stats containment.
29-of-44 for 333 yards with two touchdowns and one interception, a rating of 94.4 In addition to that, you add nine rushes for 44 yards.
Now there are those that will say some of those stats came during garbage time, but the fact remains Michael Vick is one of the more dangerous weapons seen in a long time. Their offense as a whole is one of the fastest in league history. In what is a wide open NFC, there's every reason to believe the Eagles could be there at the end.
What many people are not talking about in fact is that there is a fairly decent chance the NFC could come down to the Eagles visiting the Falcons. Think that game would garner a little attention?
Atlanta Falcons
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There's something about the Falcons I don't like. Maybe it's the fact that it always seems they rely on Matt Ryan driving their team down in the final minutes of a tight game to get the win. Ryan, who in his only his third year, is already one of the best clutch passers in the league. But a team can't always have games come down to the last minute and expect to win every time. Can they?
So far, their formula has worked as they sit 9-2 atop the NFC. If the Falcons can get the first seed in the playoffs, then they are in great shape as Matt Ryan is 18-1 at home. However, if the Falcons need to play on the road, their chances to go to the Super Bowl will surely take a hit.
New Orleans Saints
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Hey everyone, remember them?
With all of the drama going on around the league, the New Orleans Saints have flown completely under the radar since the start of the season. Despite injuries to almost every running back on their roster, the Saints still sit 8-3 and just a game out of first. The team appears to be picking up steam as their offense is starting to resemble the dominant one we saw in 2009.
Their defense is also playing better than last year, not having to rely on turnovers to get the job done. That is also a good sign moving forward since it's possible they won't have home-field advantage at any point in the postseason.
While the Saints surely are not as dominant as last season, there is also no doubt this team has the capability to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl again this year.
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