New England Patriots vs. New York Jets: Breaking Down the Matchups
Top spot in the AFC East, top seed in the AFC. This is what it's all about. The only way it could be any better is if it were the final game of the season.
It's no secret that the league's No. 1 scoring offense faces off against the No. 4 scoring defense. But of course, it will come down to so much more than just those numbers.
These two teams may not always play like the two best teams in football, but the fact remains that they have the record to show for their efforts. And even Bill Belichick would tell you that, "Stats are for losers. The final score is for winners."
Obviously, these two teams want to be winners on Monday night, and there are a lot of key matchups that will help each team get there.
Here's my take on how those matchups break down.
Patriots Passing Game vs. Jets Pass Defense
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Last year, I might have said this matchup favors the Jets. They aren't, however, the same dominant No. 1 pass defense from last year, and have been exposed at times despite their 11th ranking against the pass. They've also only managed seven interceptions this season so far.
Meanwhile, Tom Brady is having an MVP season, and is currently tied for the league lead in touchdown passes, while only throwing four interceptions on the year. Two of those came against the Jets in Week 2, but Brady hasn't thrown a non-Hail Mary interception since the departure of Randy Moss.
The only disadvantage here is that Brady excels against zone defenses, and the Jets play more man. Still, I don't like how the Jets match up against Rob Gronkowski and Deion Branch, two players who have come on very strong since their first meeting.
Advantage: Patriots
Patriots Running Game vs. Jets Run Defense
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This one's really a no-brainer. The Jets rank fourth against the run, and allow the second-lowest yard-per-carry average of any team at 3.4.
The Patriots have had some success running the ball, but nothing more than a mediocre 16th-ranking would tell you. Where they excel is getting the ball out to Danny Woodhead in space, and against Antonio Cromartie's poor run defense, that could pose a problem in the screen game.
Still, right up the gut, the advantage is clear. Logan Mankins brings a bit of swagger to this offensive line, but the Jets front is just so aggressive and swallows holes whole.
Advantage: Jets
Jets Passing Game vs. Patriots Pass Defense
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Kyle Arrington vs. Santonio Holmes and Devin McCourty vs. Braylon Edwards are both matchups that don't figure to play out favorably for the Patriots. LaDainian Tomlinson, however, is the team's leading receiver.
The bottom line is, there's no easy way to shut down everyone. The best way to stop the aerial attack is to confuse Mark Sanchez.
The Patriots have done a lot of disguising over the past few weeks, especially in the Colts game. They will need to run a smoke and mirrors defense to dupe Sanchez and force him to decipher what they're doing.
The fact remains that even though Sanchez completed over 60 percent of his passes against the Patriots in Week 2, he has only done so one other time this season, and currently only completes 55 percent of his passes on the season. He has also thrown eight interceptions this year, all of which have come in a six-game stretch where he has thrown at least one in each game.
We all remember what the Patriots did to Sanchez last year at Gillette Stadium (one touchdown, four interceptions), and with New England playing a very opportunistic style of pass defense as of late, look for more of the same.
Advantage: Patriots
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Jets Running Game vs. Patriots Run Defense
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A lot of things have changed for the Jets in one year. Their top-ranked rush attack, though, certainly isn't one of them. They feature new faces in Shonn Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson, but they rank second in the league in running the ball.
LT seems to always be out for blood against the Patriots, and burned them last time on 11 carries for 76 yards. He looks every bit like the man who has burned the Patriots for 4.9 yards per carry, 618 yards and five touchdowns in six career games.
That doesn't bode well for the Patriots, who feature little more than a mediocre run defense that allows opposing backs to average 4.2 yards per carry.
Advantage: Jets
Special Teams
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After strong performances against the Dolphins and the Ravens, the Patriots' special teams has taken a turn for the worse over the past few weeks. Their drives have started with poor field position, and they have let their opponents start with some favorable positioning.
That doesn't figure to pan out too well for them against a Jets group that has been remarkable both in kick coverage and kick returns. Steve Weatherford has really come on as the team's punter, and averages 44.5 yards per punt, and an astonishing 26 of his 59 punts have put the opponent inside their 20.
Their biggest weapon, though, is Brad Smith. He leads the league in yards per kick return with 29.2, and with Shayne Graham incapable of kicking past the opponent's 10-yard line, that could mean a long day for the Patriots' special teams unit.
Advantage: Jets
Coaching
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Few head coaches rival Bill Belichick in terms of preparing and motivating a team for a big game. One of the few that does, though, is Rex Ryan.
Ryan himself has regarded Belichick as one of the best head coaches in the game, and even said himself that the Jets will have to prevent being outcoached if they want to win this game.
While the players ultimately determine the outcome of the game, it's proper game-planning and strategy that puts the team in position to make the plays.
When it comes to big games and preparation, especially at home, there's no one better to have as a head coach than Bill Belichick. I could run down the list of big games that have been won on the strength of his game-planning, but that would be better suited for its own article.
Advantage: Patriots
Conclusion
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Tom Brady has been gold at home, and has won his past 25 straight home contests dating back to 2006 to tie Brett Favre's NFL record. Of course, every record and every streak is meant to be broken.
Either way, this game promises to be the most exciting and meaningful that Monday Night Football has brought us this season thus far.
The Jets have done a great job of winning close games with clutch play at the end over the past month, but Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have been doing that song and dance for years. There's no better quarterback-head coach tandem to have on your side in a big game than those two.
Prediction: Patriots 27, Jets 20
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