NFL Contenders and Pretenders: Handicapping the AFC Division Races
As is the case in the NFC (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/528326-nfl-contenders-and-pretenders-breaking-down-the-division-races-in-the-nfc), the AFC's contenders and pretenders have begun to distinguish themselves from one another.
This year's crop includes plenty of familiar faces (Indianapolis, New England, San Diego, Pittsburgh) as well as some significant surprises (Kansas City, Oakland, Jacksonville).
So how will it all shake out in the end?
AFC East: Beantown Vs. The Big Apple
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There's no intercity rivalry quite like the one between New York and Boston.
Granted, it usually pertains to the fabled friction of Yankees-Red Sox in the summer.
This year, the competition between these two metropolises has spilled over into the NFL season, with the Jets and Patriots slugging it out not just for the title of Beast of the East, but also for the top seed in the AFC.
T-1. New England Patriots
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Why they'll win it:
Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.
Three Super Bowl rings.
The highest-scoring offense in the NFL, at just over 30 points per game.
The Pats are, once again, in good shape to take the East.
Why they won't:
On the other hand, New England sports the 30th-ranked defense in the league and still has four games against teams at or above the .500 mark.
Not to mention the Pats will have to hold off the Jets, who have the look of a Super Bowl contender this year.
T-1. New York Jets
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Why they'll win it:
Among the many strengths the Jets sport this year, two stand out from the rest.
That is, New York has both the fourth-best defense, including the third-best against the run, and the fourth-best rushing attack in the league.
Generally, teams that can run the ball and stop the run tend to, you know, win Super Bowls.
And, at 9-2, Rex Ryan has his team primed for another deep playoff run.
Why they won't:
Like the Falcons in the NFC, it's tough to find much fault with Gang Green.
The only thing truly working against New York's division title hopes is their competition–the New England Patriots.
A win at Gillette Stadium next week would go a long way toward boosting the Jets' odds of taking the AFC East.
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AFC North: Defense to Determine Destiny
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Whenever the Baltimore Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers are involved, one word comes to mind.
Defense, defense, defense.
As such, the 2010 AFC North title will likely go to whichever team can do the most to limit, if not dominate, it's opponent's offenses.
The Steelers are in control after pulling off a thrilling win over the Ravens on Sunday Night Football, 13-10, but there is still plenty of room left in the conversation for the Northern crown.
So who will take the cake–the Steel Curtain or Purple Reign?
2. Baltimore Ravens
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Why they'll win it:
It's no surprise that the Ravens' defense, led by a combination of veterans like Ray Lewis and Ed Reed along with younger stars like Haloti Ngata and Terrell Suggs, is once again a top-10 caliber unit.
What has really bolstered Baltimore's chances this year is the emergence of a dependable offense.
The addition of Anquan Boldin to Derrick Mason and Todd Heap in the Ravens' receiving corps has given Joe Flacco the luxury of having a top-flight option to throw to, and his numbers (92.1 QB rating, 16 touchdowns to only seven picks) have improved accordingly.
Of course, having a reliable runner like Pro Bowler Ray Rice helps too.
Why they won't:
As solid as the Ravens' D has been, it has struggled thus far to force turnovers.
Subsequently, Baltimore currently sports a -1 turnover differential, which does not bode well for John Harbaugh's boys, especially in close games.
The advancing age of stalwarts like Lewis and Reed is also something of a concern for Beltway football fans.
T-1. Pittsburgh Steelers
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Why they'll win it:
Like New England in the East, it's tough to discount Pittsburgh as a solid pick to win the AFC North by virtue of Ben Roethlisberger alone.
As good as Big Ben has been since his return from suspension, the Steelers have been great all year on defense–fifth overall and tops against the run, with a turnover differential of +10.
It certainly doesn't hurt that most of Pittsburgh's roster has been there and done that before.
Why they won't:
The Steelers would be ranked higher in total defense if not for having only the 21st-ranked pass defense in the league.
And even with Roethlisberger back under center, Pittsburgh's offense is still much closer to the bottom of the NFL than the top.
AFC South: A Chance For All
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A mere two games separate worst from first in the wacky AFC South with only four weeks remaining in the 2010 season.
Jacksonville and Indianapolis would seem to be the only "real" contenders, but even Tennessee and Houston, both at 5-7, still have a puncher's chance to come out on top.
So who will hang on for some Southern comfort?
1. Jacksonville Jaguars
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Why they'll win it:
The Jaguars' offensive backfield has been steady, if not spectacular, this season.
Maurice Jones-Drew currently stands as the fourth-most prolific running back in the NFL with 991 yards to date, including a career-high 186 yards in Jacksonville's 17-6 win over Tennessee.
Aside from handing the ball off to Mo Drew down after down, quarterback David Garrard has been solid in his own right, posting a 92.7 efficiency rating to go along with 17 touchdowns and a 66.3 completion percentage, good for second in the league.
The schedule also works in the Jags' favor, with no games remaining against teams with winning records.
Why they won't:
Jack Del Rio's defense has faltered this year, to say the least.
The Jags' D ranks 25th in yards allowed per game (375.4) while doing little to boost the team's turnover differential, which, at -11, is tied for the worst in the NFL thus far.
Not a good sign for a team with a modest one-game lead in the division.
2. Indianapolis Colts
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Why they'll win it:
The Indianapolis Colts have the past on their side.
For one, Indy has won the AFC South in six of the eight seasons since it came into existence, including last year's crown.
More importantly, the Colts still boast two-time defending NFL MVP Peyton Manning at quarterback, who is well on his way to yet another season with 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns passing.
Why they won't:
That being said, 2010 has been far from Manning's finest year.
The all-world quarterback, on whom Indy's success depends, has tossed a startling 11 interceptions in his last three games–all losses.
Additionally, the Colts can't exactly rely on Jim Caldwell's defense to pick up the slack, as Dwight Freeney and company are allowing more than 340 yards per game this season.
AFC West: Surprise, Surprise
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No division has provided quite as much intrigue, muted as it may be, as the AFC West has.
What has typically been a romp for San Diego in recent years has morphed into a three-horse race, with Kansas City and Oakland joining the fray.
The West has, indeed, been wild so far, and things don't figure to get any calmer over the final month this season.
1. Kansas City Chiefs
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Why they'll win it:
Perhaps no team has been a bigger surprise this season than Todd Haley's Kansas City Chiefs.
After leading KC to a 4-12 record in his first season at the helm, Haley now has his Chiefs at 8-4 and two games ahead in the West.
Of course, Haley hasn't done it alone. He can thank a trio of skill players for the team's success this season.
Matt Cassel has played fantastic, mistake free-football in 2010, tossing 22 touchdowns and only four picks on the way to a 99.7 quarterback efficiency rating–fourth ebst in the league.
Fourteen of those scores have come by way of Dwyane Bowe, who has emerged as a top-tier wide receiver for Kansas City.
The running talents of Jamaal Charles, who ranks second in the league in rushing with 1,021 yards, complete the offensive trifecta for the Chiefs.
Why they won't:
On the other hand, the Chiefs have been merely middle-of-the-pack on defense in terms of yardage allowed while forcing a paltry 16 turnovers through 12 games.
T-2. Oakland Raiders
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Why they'll win it:
It's been way, way too long since the Silver and Black have been in the conversation for a winning record, much less a division title.
But thanks to the steady play of Jason Campbell under center and the highlight reel running of Darren McFadden (773 yards, four touchdowns), Tom Cable's Raiders are back in the thick of things in the AFC West.
Why they won't:
Oakland's defense has been decent thus far, but it will be put through the ringer over the final month.
The Raiders will face off with three of the top four offenses in the NFL over the final month, with the task of containing the likes of Peyton Manning, Matt Cassel, Dwyane Bowe, Philip Rivers, and Maurice Jones-Drew, among others.
In essence, a murderer's row of offensive juggernauts for a team still learning to win.
Ouch!
T-2. San Diego Chargers
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Why they'll win it:
Like Indy, San Diego has precedence in its favor.
The Chargers have won the AFC West in each of the last five seasons, with Philip Rivers leading the offense for the last four of those.
Speaking of Rivers, the Chargers' quarterback is having yet another outstanding season, posting the league's second best quarterback rating (104.9) and passing yardage total (3,362) while tying for the league lead in touchdowns (23).
On the other side of the ball, Ron Rivera's defense currently leads the NFL in yards per game allowed (273.6).
Why they won't:
People don't often talk about special teams, but the kicking game has been the Chargers' downfall this season.
San Diego is far and away the worst team in the league on punt return coverage, allowing 20.7 yards per punt return–more than six yards per return more than the next worst team (Washington).
If not for their porous special teams, the Bolts might already be well on their way to their sixth consecutive division title,
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