Roger Federer-Rafael Nadal Rivalry: How Will Australian Open Affect GOAT Debate?

The Federer-Nadal GOAT debate is perhaps the most intriguing debate in sports history. Compelling and reasonable arguments can be made on behalf of both of them, and therefore it becomes extremely difficult to choose between the two because no matter which side you are on, the arguments seem right and wrong at the same time.

John McEnroe’s recent take on the debate is a classical example that perhaps the so-called experts are as much unsure and divided as the rest of the tennis population. Just eight months after hailing Federer as the "greatest tennis player ever," McEnroe now had this to say:

"There is an argument to be made that Nadal may perhaps be the greatest player eventually, even possibly now."

Ever since he started winning slams, Roger Federer has been inextricably linked to the word "GOAT" but even he can’t escape the fact that where there is a GOAT, there is a debate.  In fact, in the first few years of GOAT debate, Nadal was not really into the picture.

Roger Federer was hailed as the "anointed one," the most complete player in the history of the game, an aesthete’s delight, a player with no visible weakness, and hence the inevitable comparisons were made to "Rocket" Rod Laver as to who really is the greater player amongst the two.

The unequivocal answer came: "Roger Federer is the GOAT." Those were the good old days. The only time we were seriously forced to doubt his GOAT credentials was perhaps the period between Australian Open 2009 and French Open 2009.

Cut to Australian Open 2010, and pundits now started dismissing Nadal’s 2008 as an "aberration." Some even claimed that the Federer-Nadal rivalry is not really a rivalry but a case of Federer pushing his opponents to extreme levels, citing Nadal’s knee tendinitis as testimony that getting to Federer’s level took a lot out of Nadal.

Little did those critics realize that they would be forced to eat humble pie in just a matter of few months. Cut to September 2010, and Nadal’s 2009 now looks more like an aberration in retrospect.

Australian Open 2011 is the next Grand Slam, and it is extremely crucial to both Federer and Nadal (and their fans!). No matter who wins it, it would have an undeniable impact on the debate, because at this point in time the debate is still marginally tilted in Federer’s favour despite this knock against him: "How can he be the greatest player of all time if he loses to Rafael Nadal most of the time?”

As far as Australian Open 2011 is concerned, there are only three possibilities, but each possibility would change the “GOAT” equation, in its own way.

Possibility No. 1: Someone Other Than Nadal and Federer Wins Australian Open

Both the players would no doubt be disappointed but their fans, even though disappointed, would also breathe a sigh of relief. Federer fans will be rather thankful that the slam gap is still the same. And proponents of the Nadal GOAT theory would not be much disappointed either, because the slam gap remains the same, and the next slam happens to be the French Open!  

So, this is a no-win situation for both, but Nadal would now have one slam opportunity less to chase down Federer’s slam count. He will end up being at a slight disadvantage.

Possibility No. 2: Federer Wins

This is a very likely possibility, given Roger Federer’s recent form. So, Federer’s slam tally increases to 17 and the slam gap increases to eight, making it even more difficult for Nadal to chase Federer down, and hence the debate may very well stretch into the middle of the next decade.

In fact, every slam that Federer wins from now onward is actually a bonus because not only is he increasing the slam gap, but also it gets doubly harder for Nadal to get closer to his tally. He is shooting two birds with a single bullet.

Possibility No. 3: Nadal Wins

John McEnroe thinks this is the most likely outcome, in which case the slam gap will reduce to six, but more importantly Nadal’s slam count will enter into double digits, which is no small feat.

Moreover Nadal would have won four slams in a row, a feat not repeated since Rod Laver’s calendar slam in 1969. The GOAT Debate would perhaps irrevocably tilt in Nadal’s favour and Federer’s GOAT claim, already heavily doubtful at the moment, may evaporate permanently.  

Federer would need to repeat the miraculous year of 2009 from French Open onwards once again in 2011 if he wants to keep his GOAT hopes alive. But can the lightning strike twice?

Given the fact that Nadal is nowadays increasingly aware of his fitness issues, it would be rather imprudent not to bet on Nadal winning the French Open.

In fact, the most intangible question related to the GOAT debate is, "What if Nadal gets to 12 to 14 major titles, with Federer ending up with 16 or 17 titles?” In other words, “Does Nadal really need to get to 16?”

Sampras doesn’t think so, and going by McEnroe's recent comments, even he seems to think along similar lines. Nadal seems to have the overall edge in the debate, in the bigger picture.  

The upcoming Australian Open's outcome will have serious repercussions on the GOAT debate, especially if Rafael Nadal ends up winning it. With French Open and Wimbledon to follow, the debate may very well be over sooner than expected, and Federer‘s record of 16 slams may have an even smaller shelf life than Sampras’ record of 14 slams. But, don’t forget, the Swiss is not done yet. If Agassi can win slams well into his 30s, Federer can certainly do the same.