Fantasy Football Week 12 Start Em, Sit Em: FFArmory.com

We break down all of the not-so-obvious starts by position with in-depth analysis.

QBs—Jon Kitna, Shaun Hill, Mark Sanchez, Carson Palmer, Matt Hasselbeck

RBs—BJGE, Mike Tolbert, Fred Jackson, Cedric Benson

WRs—Sidney Rice, Santonio Holmes, Vincent Jackson, Mario Manningham, Nate Burleson, James Jones

Kickers—Neil Rackers, Matt Prater

Defense—Cleveland, Chicago

Which are starts and which are sits? Keep clicking.

Start Jon Kitna Home vs. the Saints: 12:30 p.m. EST, Thanksgiving

Tom Pennington/Getty Images

ARLINGTON, TX - NOVEMBER 21: Quarterback Jon Kitna (C) #3 of the Dallas Cowboys leads a team prayer with (l-r) punter Nick Harris #2, linebacker DeMarcus Ware #94, running back Marion Barber #24, cornerback Bryan McCain #37, wide receiver Dez Bryant #88,

When the Saints come marching into Dallas on Thanksgiving, expect them to end up putting a ton of points against this No. 28-ranked Cowboys defense. 

Kitna has been terrific as the starter, playing mostly from behind and averaging 23.93 fantasy points in four games. He’s been even hotter over his last two games, as he’s averaging 29 fantasy points (6 TDs!), and with absolutely no rushing attack (3 TDs on the season–T-32nd with Carolina), Kitna is a lock for 45 or so passing attempts.   

The Saints rank first in pass defense and second in passing touchdowns allowed, so you may be wondering why I’m listing Kitna as a start. A closer look inside the number reveals that this defense has been largely untested. 

They have only played one QB who ranks in the top 14 in fantasy points scored. That was Matt Ryan, who scored 22 against them.

Seven of the 10 teams the Saints have faced rank in the bottom 11 in points scored at the fantasy position, including five games against teams that QBs ranked in the bottom four (Caro x 2). 

Kitna makes for a solid start. 

Start Shaun Hill–Home vs. New England: 4 p.m. EST, Thanksgiving

Tom Pennington/Getty Images

ARLINGTON, TX - NOVEMBER 21: Quarterback Shaun Hill #14 of the Detroit Lions looks for an open receiver against the Dallas Cowboys at Cowboys Stadium on November 21, 2010 in Arlington, Texas. The Cowboys beat the Lions 35-19. (Photo by Tom Pennington/G

A 290-passing yard and two-TD average in his six full starts going up against the second-most porous pass D? 

Where do I sign up?   

The Lions are typically playing from behind and continue to pass at a high rate (65.2 percent pass vs. 34.8 percent run) and it’s even more extreme inside the red zone (71.6 percent vs. 29.4 percent). Jahvid Best’s turf toe is getting worse and Kevin Smith has been placed on the IR, so it’s not like they have an option here.  

In case you weren’t already sold to get this guy under center for your squad, here are some more stats for you to roll up into a blunt and light: Hill has attempted 45.1 passes in his six full games and has only thrown under 43 passes once in that time. 

As far as the Patriots go, let’s step briefly inside that No. 31 ranking, shall we? In 10 games this year, eight QBs have scored at least 21.7 fantasy points against them.

If you add in Tarvaris Jackson to Brett Favre’s totals (he spelled him in this game) it’s nine of 10.  

Hill is a start as long as he stays healthy.

Start Mark Sanchez at Home vs. the Bengals: 8 p.m. Thanksgiving on NFL Network

Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ - NOVEMBER 21: Mark Sanchez #6 of the New York Jets celebrates a third quarter touchdown against the Houston Texans from teammate Santonio Holmes (not pictured) on November 21, 2010 at the New Meadowlands Stadium in East Rutherford, N

It appears young Skywalker has taken to Jabba’s coaching, as he is playing the best ball of his young career (averaging 312 yards passing, two TDs & 28.6 fantasy points over his last three games).

He has also rushed for two TDs in the three games, getting both of the Jets' carries from the one-yard line. 

This Bengal defense remains a bit of a mystery. How do they hold Ben Roethlisberger & Peyton Manning to a combined 348 yards and one TD the previous two weeks, but allow Ryan Fitzpatrick to pass for 316 yards and four TDs in one game?

Have they given up hope? Seven straight losses will do that to a team. 

Sanchez should be good for 250 yards and two TDs this week.

Start Carson Palmer @ New York Jets: 8 p.m. Thanksgiving on The NFL Network

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

CINCINNATI - NOVEMBER 21: Carson Palmer #9 of the Cincinnati Bengals gives instructions to his team during the Bengals 49-31 loss to the Buffalo Bills at Paul Brown Stadium on November 21, 2010 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

He’s got five games to save his job, as far as I’m concerned. 

He’s tossed seven INTs over the last four games, and many have come at critical times in close games. He is still putting up the fantasy numbers, though. The Bengals have lost seven straight, but Palmer’s averaging 22.69 fantasy points over that time and at least 17 in each. 

Palmer will probably throw a few INTs, putting his team behind and playing in full comeback mode; 40+ pass attempts is a near lock. One more thing to consider: Palmer has been fantasy gold on the road this season, averaging 323 passing yards and 24.5 PPG in five road games.  

Start Matt Hasselbeck at Home vs. Kansas City: 4 p.m. Sunday

Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

OAKLAND, CA - OCTOBER 31: Matt Hasselbeck #8 of the Seattle Seahawks in action against the Oakland Raiders at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum on October 31, 2010 in Oakland, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

He is averaging 350 yards per game over his last two, but that is not really why I’m intrigued. 

The matchup, however, is a different story. Todd Bouman and Derek Anderson have averaged 19.35 fantasy points facing this Chiefs pass defense.   

Hasselbeck is well past his prime. But if you are sitting on a QB1 with a questionable matchup, you could always play it safe and stick him in there for the 20 or so points he will put up. 

He can match Todd Bouman, can’t he?

Start BenJarvus Green-Ellis @ Detroit: 12:30 p.m. on Thanksgiving

Jim Rogash/Getty Images

FOXBORO, MA - NOVEMBER 21: BenJarvus Green-Ellis #42 of the New England Patriots gains yards against the Indianapolis Colts in the second half at Gillette Stadium on November 21, 2010 in Foxboro, Massachusetts. (Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images)

He’s been putting up low-end RB1 numbers (12.6 fantasy PPG) since he took over the starting job in Week 3. 

The most impressive part is that five of his eight starts have come against opposing rush defenses ranked in the top 12 in points allowed to RBs. He averaged over 15 fantasy PPG in the other three games. 

The Lions have allowed four different RBs to score at least 29 fantasy points against them. The other 31 teams in the NFL combined have only allowed nine RBs to reach 29 fantasy points. 

The Lions allow the third-most fantasy points to opposing RBs through 11 weeks of action.

Start Mike Tolbert @ Indianapolis: Sunday Night Football, 8 p.m.

Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images

SAN DIEGO - NOVEMBER 22: Mike Tolbert #35 of the San Diego Chargers breaks a tackle against Nate Jones #33 of the Denver Broncos as he rushes for a gain at Qualcomm Stadium on November 22, 2010 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty

Keep an eye on the injury reports coming out of San Diego.

If it looks like Mathews will be on the shelf again, then Tolbert is a must-start. When Tolbert gets enough touches, he’s fantasy gold, baby.  

In games where he has received at least 15 total touches, he is averaging 106.3 total yards and a TD or 16.6 fantasy PPG. Oddly, in nine games where the Colts' opposing RB has been given at least 15 touches, they are allowing 18 fantasy PPG to those RBs. 

To be fair, though, let’s take out Arian Foster’s two monster games in which he combined to score 65 total points. What we have left is seven RBs who reached at least 15 total touches that averaged 13.93 fantasy PPG. 

Fantasy is science, my brotha’, not luck. Fire up Tolbert.

Start Sidney Rice @ Washington: Sunday at 1 p.m.

Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images

NEW ORLEANS - JANUARY 24: Sidney Rice #18 of the Minnesota Vikings makes a reception against Randall Gay #20 of the New Orleans Saints during the NFC Championship Game at the Louisiana Superdome on January 24, 2010 in New Orleans, Louisiana. The Saints w

So much for 25-30 snaps. 

He was on the field for 84 percent of the plays and saw 10 targets. What’s more relevant and critical than that is he did not re-aggravate the injury. 

Rice has a great matchup this week vs. a Redskins pass defense that allows the second-most fantasy PPG (27.8) to opposing WRs. With both Percy Harvin and Bernard Berrian banged up, I wouldn't hesitate to start Rice as my WR2 or WR3. 

For whatever reason, as bad as the Redskins’ pass D has been on the year, they are even worse at home. In five home games this season, the Redskins are allowing 253.8 yards and 10 total TDs to WRs for an average of 37.4 fantasy PPG.

Start Santonio Holmes Home vs. Cincinnati: 8 p.m. Thanksgiving on NFL Network

Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ - NOVEMBER 21: Santonio Holmes #10 of the New York Jets celebrates after his fourth quarter touhdown against the Houston Texans on November 21, 2010 at the New Meadowlands Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The Jets defeated the

Hey, Holmes is averaging 105 yards and has scored three TDs on just under a 10 target average over his last three games. 

Don’t get too caught up with the Bengals’ lofty pass defense numbers (see Sanchez above). They are giving up big points to WRs. 

They’ve allowed an average of 29.2 fantasy points to opposing WRs over their last five games. After what Steve Johnson and Ryan Fitzgerald did last week against Cincinnati, it’s hard not to get some fantasy wood on this matchup.

Start Vincent Jackson @ Indianapolis: 8 p.m. Sunday

Donald Miralle/Getty Images

SAN DIEGO - JANUARY 17: Wide receiver Vincent Jackson #83 of the San Diego Chargers runs with the ball after a catch against the New York Jets during AFC Divisional Playoff Game at Qualcomm Stadium on January 17, 2010 in San Diego, California. (Photo b

Whoever was savvy enough to pick this guy up and sit on him could be in for a monster five-game stretch the rest of the way.  

Crayton is out, Malcom Floyd re-tweaked his hamstring, and Gates is hobbling about on a torn fascia ligament. The Chargers have no choice but to turn to their Pro Bowl WR. 

Jackson has been practicing with the team for over two weeks and has played 64 career games with Rivers under center, so you need not worry about timing and rapport. Any WR that is starting has potential this season. 

Seven different WR/TE have scored at least 14.3 fantasy points on the Chargers in a game this year. Whether Gates is a go or not, get Jackson in there against any pass defense.

Start Mario Manningham Home vs. Jacksonville: 1 p.m. Sunday

Andrew Burton/Getty Images

EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ - OCTOBER 17: Jonathan Wade #24 of the Detroit Lions is unable to stop Mario Manningham #82 of the New York Giants from scoring a touch down in the second quarter at New Meadowlands Stadium on October 17, 2010 in East Rutherford, New

He is now the WR1 with both Steve Smith & Hakeem Nicks on the shelf for sure in Week 12. 

The other receivers who might see action this week Derek Hagen, Ramses Barden and Duke Calhoun.  They have a combined 71 catches, 824 yards and five TDs in their career.

Manningham was putting up decent points when Nicks and Smith were both healthy, averaging 7.4 fantasy points on the season. In most matchups, I would be sweating the question of whether Manningham can handle primary coverage.

Now the G-men are out of options. But against the Jags, it just does not matter. 

Nine different WRs have scored at least 14.7 fantasy points against this secondary. He’s a WR2, and no less.

Start Nate Burleson Home vs. New England: 12:30 p.m. Thanksgiving

Leon Halip/Getty Images

ARLINGTON, TX - NOVEMBER 21: Nate Burleson #13 of the Detroit Lions scores a late second quarter touchdown as Terence Newman #41 of the Dallas Cowboys defends at Dallas Stadium on November 21, 2010 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Leon Halip/Getty Images)

Burleson is averaging 10.83 fantasy points over his last six games (high end WR2 numbers) aided by an increase in targets (8.5 per) and four TDs. 

The Lions have to pass. It doesn’t matter the opponent, as Jahvid Best’s turf toe gets steadily worse and Kevin Smith was just placed on the IR. 

Burleson is obviously enjoying the double and triple-team coverage being spent on Calvin Johnson. The Patriots have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing WRs on the season, and it’s been uglier of late. 

They have allowed six TDs and an average of 257 yards to WRs over their last two (vs. Indy and Pittsburgh). I wouldn’t hesitate to start Burleson as a WR3

Start James Jones @ Atlanta: 1 p.m. Sunday

Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

GREEN BAY, WI - NOVEMBER 07: James Jones #89 of the Green Bay Packers runs past Alan Ball #20 of the Dallas Cowboys as Barry Church #42 moves in for the tackle at Lambeau Field on November 7, 2010 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The Packers defeated the Cowboys

Driver is expected to start.

That did cut into Jones’ targets in Week 11 (five down from nine in Week 10). But I have a feeling the Falcons will be game-planning to shut down Jennings after his three TD outburst last weekend; and Driver is a shell of his former self. 

Jones has hit double-digit fantasy points in three of his last four games, including averaging 14.7 fantasy points in his last two games.

You don’t need to be a WR1 to produce against Atlanta. Check it: Hines Ward, Jeremy Maclin, Lance Moore, Jordan Shipley, Derek Mason and Brandon Gibson all combined to average 17.6 fantasy PPG vs. the Falcons!   

He should see a couple of extra targets this week and have an output of around 12-13.    

Start Neil Rackers Home vs. Tennessee: 1 p.m. Sunday

Bob Levey/Getty Images

HOUSTON - SEPTEMBER 26: Kicker Neil Rackers #4 of the Houston Texans connects on a 24 yard field goal in the second quarter against the Dallas Cowboys at Reliant Stadium on September 26, 2010 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)

The Titans' defense can be moved on, as they are giving up 363 yards per game.

That ranks No. 24 in the NFL. They get stingy in the red zone, though, as they have only allowed 15 TD this season for third-fewest in the league.

These RZ attempts usually turn into FGAs, as 33 have been attempted on them this season. On the season, teams have attempted 18 more FGs against the Titans than extra points.

No other team in the league has allowed 10 more FGAs than extra-point attempts on the season. It’s nice when your kicker is going for three instead of one.

Start Matt Prater Home vs. St. Louis: 4 p.m. Sunday

Doug Pensinger/Getty Images

DENVER - SEPTEMBER 19: Place kicker Matt Prater #5 of the Denver Broncos attempts a field goal from the hold of Britton Colquitt #4 against the Seattle Seahawks at INVESCO Field at Mile High on September 19, 2010 in Denver, Colorado. The Broncos defeated

The Rams have allowed at least three FGs in six of their 10 games this season.

Three of the four teams that did not have three FGs made against St. Louis were Carolina, Seattle & Arizona, three of the four worst-ranked offenses in the league.

Denver can move the ball, and St.Louis plays good RZ defense. This makes Prater a good play this week.

Start Cleveland Defense Home vs. Carolina: 1 p.m. Sunday

Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

JACKSONVILLE, FL - NOVEMBER 21: Cleveland Browns defensive coodinator Rob Ryan watches warmups during a game agaisnt the Jacksonville Jaguars at EverBank Field on November 21, 2010 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

Any defense playing the Panthers is a must-start.

They are only scoring 11.3 points per game, which is 4.3 points less than any other team in the league. There is a good chance the Panthers score 10 points or less, which they have done in five games this season.

For leagues that reward defenses for total points allowed, that is 10 fantasy points. Cleveland's defense will also score a few points on sacks and turnovers, as the Panthers are fourth in the league in sacks allowed at 30 and have 28 turnovers, which are second-most in the NFL.

In a basic scoring format, teams are averaging 8.2 fantasy points per game against Carolina. 

Sit Fred Jackson Home vs. Pittsburgh: 1 p.m. Sunday

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

CINCINNATI - NOVEMBER 21: Fred Jackson #22 of the Buffalo Bills runs with the ball while defended by Johnathan Joseph #22 of the Cincinnati Bengals during the NFL game at Paul Brown Stadium on November 21, 2010 in Cincinnati, Ohio. The Bills won 49-21.

He is one of the hotter backs in the league, averaging 149.5 total yards and two TD over his last two games.

The good run is about to come to a screeching halt against a Steelers defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points to RBs this year. They have faced the best there is: Michael Turner, Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, Peyton Hillis and Darren McFadden combined for 64 carries 151 yards for a 2.4 YPC average and scored zero TDs.  

These five RBs combined average on the season is 76.3 fantasy points. Yet against Pittsburgh, they were held to a combined 25.1 fantasy points.

Sit Jackson no matter what this week.

Sit Cedric Benson @ New York Jets: 8 p.m. Thanksgiving on NFL Network

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

ATLANTA - OCTOBER 24: Cedric Benson #32 of the Cincinnati Bengals fumbles the ball against Curtis Lofton #50 of the Atlanta Falcons at Georgia Dome on October 24, 2010 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

The Jets have only allowed three RBs to reach nine fantasy points this year: Arian Foster, Adrian Peterson, & Peyton Hillis, a.k.a. the top three fantasy RBs in the NFL.

The Jets currently rank second in fantasy points allowed to RBs. Last year, Benson was lighting up pretty much any opposing defense when he was healthy.

But this year, not so much. 

In Cedric Benson’s four games against teams ranked in the top 12 in fantasy points allowed to RBs, he is averaging 8.2 fantasy points, which is not RB starter-worthy numbers in a 12-team league.