New England Patriots vs. Detroit Lions: Breaking Down the Matchups
While families search for great Thanksgiving day recipes, the Detroit Lions will search for a recipe to their first victory on the holiday in six years as they host the 8-2 New England Patriots.
On cloud nine after a dramatic win over the Colts, the Patriots make the Mayflower trip to Detroit. Much like the Pilgrims, the Patriots are out to lay claim to the territory and look to run roughshod over anyone they must in order to add another notch in the win column.
But the Lions take great pride in their tradition and their home, and won't give up without a fight.
Let's take a look at how the match-up breaks down:
Patriots Passing Game Vs. Lions Pass Defense
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The Lions have faced two quarterbacks that are having respectable seasons (Aaron Rodgers and Eli Manning), and held both to under 200 yards passing.
It's safe to say, though, that neither is on the same level as Tom Brady.
And those numbers don't tell the full story. In those games, each quarterback completed over 60 percent of their passes. In fact, the Lions allow a season average of over 60 percent completions and also have allowed 16 passing touchdowns. The fact that the Patriots boast one of the most efficient pass attacks in the league bodes poorly for Detroit.
Alphonso Smith has five interceptions, but the rest of the team combines for just four. Brady should have no problem settling on his other options if Smith should take away one of his favorites (i.e. Deion Branch or Wee Wes Welker).
Advantage: Patriots
Patriots Running Game Vs. Lions Run Defense
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The Patriots had a field day against the Colts with both Danny Woodhead and BenJarvus Green-Ellis running for scores, and combining for 168 yards.
Against a Detroit run defense that ranks 26th overall and has allowed 11 touchdowns and yielded a 4.6 yard per carry average to opposing backs, that's a weakness the Patriots could look to exploit yet again.
Ndamukong Suh has had a phenomenal season thus far, but the Patriots aren't exactly running into the mouth of the lion...no? Not funny?
Advantage: Patriots
Lions Passing Game Vs. Patriots Pass Defense
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If you thought the Lions passed a lot with Mike Martz as their offensive coordinator, they've given whole new meaning to the term "pass-happy".
In eight games, Shaun Hill has thrown nine interceptions. Hill's propensity to turn the ball over plays right into New England's hands. The Patriots rank eighth in the league in interceptions with 13 on the season.
Sure, he has Calvin Johnson to throw to, and although Devin McCourty has come along in recent weeks, he doesn't match up favorably against Johnson. Still, Hill can't throw to Johnson on every pass, and knowing Bill Belichick, he'll be willing to give up the short passes to Nate Burleson, Brandon Pettigrew and the like in order to blanket Johnson. All day.
Because there's one other thing Shaun Hill hasn't done very well this season: Find the end zone.
Advantage: Patriots
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Lions Running Game Vs. Patriots Run Defense
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Jahvid Best started off red hot with four touchdowns in his first two games, but has cooled off quicker than a microwave dinner. Only once since Week Five has he rushed for four yards per carry, and that was against the Redskins' 27th-ranked rush defense which allows a league-worst 5.1 yards per carry.
That, of course, could have a lot to do with the Lions all but abandoning the run. They have the third-fewest rush attempts of any team at this point in the season, and only run on 34.7 percent of their offensive plays.
The Patriots may not be stalwart in run defense, but they may not have to be with the Lions all but refusing to run.
But it's not all doom and gloom for the Lions' rush attack. The Patriots showed weakness against the run in their game against the Browns, in which Peyton Hillis trampled them for 184 yards and 2 touchdowns. Best is an electric runner, and maybe a home game on Thanksgiving day is just what he needs to get back in rhythm. Regardless, the numbers don't stack up in his favor.
Advantage: Patriots
Special Teams
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Ford Field will likely be raucous on Thanksgiving, meaning that the Patriots offense could stall out more than expected. Rookie punter Zoltan Mesko helped give the Patriots some choice field position on Sunday against the Colts, averaging 44 yards per punt and lifting his season average to 43.1 yards per punt.
Lions punter Nick Harris has had a few more reps thanks to a less consistent offense, and with over 50 percent more attempts than Mesko, Harris averages 44.9 yards per punt.
Some questioned whether Shayne Graham would be consistent after several miscues in the playoff loss to the Jets, as well as being cut by the Ravens. He has been remarkable to this point, and the dome should be conducive to his continued success.
It's return specialist Stefan Logan for the Lions that should scare Patriots fans with his 12.3 yards per punt return on average and 28.2 average yards per kick return. He had a touchdown return earlier in the season, and though I wouldn't expect him to repeat the feat against the Patriots, he could have some success.
Still, Brandon Tate remains a dormant beast that has yet to be awakened following a big kick return against the Dolphins. The Lions have allowed both a kick and a punt to be returned for a touchdown, and he could work magic yet again.
Advantage: Draw
Coaching
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If the past few breakdowns haven't proven the point, there aren't many (if any) head coaches I'd rather have running my team than Bill Belichick. His ability to adjust game plans week to week to best defend the strengths of his opponent is unrivaled.
Jim Schwartz seems like a nice enough guy, but he just can't seem to put together an effective enough game plan to generate wins. Five of the teams eight losses have come by one possession or less. Regardless of how you slice it, losing is losing, and losing breeds...more losing.
Advantage: Patriots
Conclusion
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I've given the Patriots the advantage in every single category. Why, then, do I think this game will be close.
A short week for both teams, combined with the potential for a trap game, home field advantage for the Lions, and the potential for Detroit to come out in serious "no one's giving us a chance" mode have me thinking this will be another nailbiter in a Patriots season that's been full of them.
But playoff teams win the games they should win, and they also win the close ones. This one figures to be both for the Patriots.
Prediction: New England 26, Detroit 21
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